Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May indicates a reasonable match with the real economy, with significant growth in social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth, all surpassing nominal GDP growth, suggesting a stable support for the real economy [1][2]. Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2]. - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year [2]. - In the first five months, the increment in social financing was 1.863 trillion yuan, which is 383 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. Social Financing and Government Bonds - In May, the increment in social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the previous year, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [3]. - Government bonds were identified as the main driver for the rapid growth in social financing, with special refinancing bonds and new local special bonds contributing significantly [3]. - The issuance of new special bonds in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, marking a record high for the year [3]. Loan Growth and Structure - The RMB loan balance at the end of May was 266.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [6]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 34.42 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector reached 14.75 trillion yuan, up by 8.8% [7]. - The recent interest rate cuts have positively influenced loan demand, with many enterprises finding loans more attractive [8]. Market Confidence and Economic Activity - The increase in "liquid money" (M1) growth reflects the effectiveness of recent financial support measures in boosting market confidence and indicating a recovery in investment and consumption activities [4]. - The overall financial volume is expected to maintain stability, supported by resilient economic development and proactive fiscal policies [11]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, which are gradually taking effect [11].

特朗普关税措施被叫停后，主要政府债券下跌 金十数据5月29日讯，美国联邦贸易法院驳回特朗普的全球关税，可能刺激了资金逃离主权债务等避险 资产，导致主要政府债券价格下跌。10年期日本国债收益率上升1个基点，至1.525%；美国10年期国债 收益率上升4个基点，至4.5186%；澳大利亚10年期国债收益率上升4个基点，至4.3740% ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, with an increased fiscal deficit rate and a significant rise in government bond issuance to support growth and structural adjustments [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the 2025 fiscal policy will focus on enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies while introducing new measures to stimulate economic growth. Key areas of focus include increasing the fiscal deficit rate, optimizing expenditure structure, and enhancing local government financial capacity [7][9]. Summary by Sections 2024 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Characteristics - In 2024, the national general public budget revenue reached 21,970.212 billion yuan, a 1.3% increase from 2023, with tax revenue declining by 3.4% and non-tax revenue increasing by 25.4% [2]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.6% to 28,461.225 billion yuan, resulting in a fiscal deficit of 40,600 billion yuan, consistent with the budget [3]. Government Fund Budget - The national government fund budget revenue was 62,090.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2%, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income [4]. - Government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.2% [4]. State-owned Capital Management Budget - The state-owned capital management budget revenue was 6,782.88 billion yuan, exceeding the budget by 14.5%, while expenditure decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan [5]. Social Insurance Fund Budget - The social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.7 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase, with expenditures reaching 106,061.28 billion yuan, a 7% increase [6]. 2025 Fiscal Policy Directions - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at 4.0%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit amounting to 56,600 billion yuan [10]. - The issuance of government bonds will be expanded, including 13,000 billion yuan in long-term special bonds and 5,000 billion yuan for capital replenishment of state-owned banks [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for a more targeted and effective fiscal policy to support domestic demand, modern industry development, and social welfare improvements [7][9]. 2025 Budget Overview - The national general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 21,985 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.1%, while expenditure is expected to rise by 4.4% to 29,700.5 billion yuan [10]. - The government fund budget revenue is anticipated to be 62,499.09 billion yuan, with a significant increase in expenditure by 23.1% [11].

Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit rate to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year[7] - The total fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to 2024[7] Budgetary Performance in 2024 - The national general public budget revenue for 2024 was 21,970.21 billion yuan, achieving 98.1% of the budget, with a 1.3% increase from 2023[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.4% to 17,497.20 billion yuan, while non-tax revenue surged by 25.4% to 4,473.01 billion yuan[2] - General public budget expenditure reached 28,461.23 billion yuan, completing 99.7% of the budget, with a growth of 3.6%[3] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue fell by 12.2% to 62,090.40 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Total government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, completing 84.4% of the budget, with a slight increase of 0.2%[4] State-Owned Capital Management - State-owned capital operating budget revenue exceeded expectations at 6,782.88 billion yuan, achieving 114.5% of the budget, with a modest growth of 0.6%[5] - Expenditure in this budget decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan[5] Social Insurance Fund Stability - Social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.70 billion yuan, surpassing the budget by 1.2%, with a growth of 5.2%[6] - Expenditure in this fund was 106,061.28 billion yuan, completing 99.3% of the budget, reflecting a 7% increase[6]