Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Neutral (Oscillation) [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bearish in the short term, neutral (oscillation) in the long term [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics. Long - term: The market anticipates fiscal policy to shift more towards promoting consumption and an increase in the domestic inflation level after the easing of Sino - US relations. Medium - term: The anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors. Short - term: The capital market has relatively abundant liquidity, with funds flowing in due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit and loan data [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite. However, there are no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, and the bond market lacks directional drivers. It should be treated with an oscillation mindset in the long term [2] 3. Summary by Section **Research Views** - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, the A - share market fluctuated with increased trading volume. The Wind All - A index fell by 0.05% with a trading volume of 2.64 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose by 0.07%, while the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices fell by 0.19%, 0.93%, and 0.38% respectively. Personal consumption loan subsidy policies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to boost the economy. The central bank may purchase national debt to support more inclusive fiscal policies [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts rose by 0.26%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 increased [2] **Daily Price Changes** - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, compared with August 18, IH fell by 1.16%, IF by 0.51%, IC by 0.12%, and IM by 0.10%. Among the stock indices, the SSE 50 fell by 0.93%, the CSI 300 by 0.38%, the CSI 500 by 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 rose by 0.07% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, compared with August 18, TS rose by 0.03%, TF by 0.08%, T by 0.04%, and TL by 0.39% [3] **Market News** - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, tax revenue was 1.10933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 249.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan of 91 - day book - entry discount treasury bonds on August 20 [4] **Chart Analysis** - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the historical trends, basis trends, and cross - period spread trends of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bonds [12][15][16] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and other exchange rate - related data [20][21][22]

Research Views - Yesterday, the A-share market showed a volatile correction with increased trading volume. The Wind All A index dropped 0.86% with a trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index fell 1.24%, the CSI 500 index declined 1.2%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.59%, and the SSE 300 index decreased 0.08%. The personal consumer loan discount policy has been implemented, and policies are further tilted towards promoting household consumption. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase the income level of residents. It is predicted that the central bank will purchase national debt to raise funds for the central government, and more inclusive fiscal support programs will be launched to stabilize and boost China's inflation environment [1]. - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly driven by three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and an increase in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors, and new funds have a long - lasting impact but may have limited influence on the upper limit of stock prices; short - term, the capital market has relatively abundant liquidity due to the appreciation of the RMB under the weak US dollar and the improvement of corporate deposit and loan data, which makes entity liquidity more likely to flow into the stock market. In terms of operation, the market is gradually tilting towards the long side, and a strategy of selling put options can be considered [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.36%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. There were 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. The bond market showed a flat reaction after the release of weak July financial data as the market had already anticipated it. This week, the capital market is loose, but the strong stock market suppresses the bond market, which is running bearishly. In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the rise in risk appetite, but there are no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, so it will mainly show a volatile trend [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH rose 0.38%, IF fell 0.17%, IC dropped 1.11%, and IM declined 1.04%. For stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.59%, the SSE 300 fell 0.08%, the CSI 500 decreased 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.24%. For treasury bond futures, TS fell 0.02%, TF declined 0.08%, T dropped 0.10%, and TL decreased 0.33%. For treasury bond yields, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased [3]. Market News - After the release of stronger - than - expected US PPI data, traders lowered their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting is 90%, while the market fully anticipated this scenario a day ago [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The section includes charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the current - month basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The section contains charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18]. Exchange Rates - The section presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar to RMB (1M and 3M), forward euro to RMB (1M and 3M), the US dollar index, euro to US dollar, pound to US dollar, and US dollar to Japanese yen [21][22][23][25][26].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The recent rise in the stock market comes from three logics: long - term, the market anticipates fiscal policy to shift more towards the consumption - promotion area and domestic inflation to rise after the Sino - US relationship eases, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend is high, and infrastructure investment on the demand side increases, which benefits upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, capital market liquidity is relatively abundant, with funds flowing in due to RMB appreciation under the weak US dollar and improved enterprise deposit and loan data, leading to more entity liquidity flowing into the stock market. The market is currently divided, and investors can adjust their positions after the policy and market trends become clearer [1] - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market, but in the short term, after the "anti - involution" policy expectations have basically ended, and with weak credit data expectations in July, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the A - share market rose with heavy volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.99% with a trading volume of 1.85 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices had different increases. The育儿 subsidy system has been officially implemented nationwide. The market expects the central bank to buy national bonds to raise funds for the central government and introduce more inclusive fiscal support plans. The market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can wait for clearer trends [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 11, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 increased. The bond market is under pressure from the strong stock market but may fluctuate strongly in the short term [2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From August 8 to 11, 2025, IH rose 0.14%, IF rose 0.53%, IC rose 1.15%, and IM rose 1.73% [3] - **Stock Indices**: From August 8 to 11, 2025, the SSE 50 rose 0.03%, the SSE 300 rose 0.43%, the CSI 500 rose 1.08%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.55% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: From August 8 to 11, 2025, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.10%, T fell 0.13%, and TL fell 0.60% [3] Market News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)", clarifying the scope of export goods, cross - border sales of services and intangible assets, and the applicable rules for multiple tax rates and levy rates [4] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts and related stock indices [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18] - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]

Group 1: Research Views - The implementation of the Childcare Subsidy System nationwide is expected to be an important path to stabilize and boost China's inflation. The recent stock market rally is driven by long - term, medium - term, and short - term factors. It's advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions. The outlook for the stock index is "volatile", and for treasury bonds is "bullish" [1] - On August 6, 2025, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 28.85 billion yuan. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to run strongly [1][2] Group 2: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, IH rose 20.6 points (0.74%), IF rose 29.2 points (0.72%), IC rose 29.6 points (0.48%), and IM rose 39.4 points (0.59%) [3] Stock Indexes - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 21.3 points (0.77%), the CSI 300 rose 32.7 points (0.80%), the CSI 500 rose 41.5 points (0.66%), and the CSI 1000 rose 47.8 points (0.71%) [3] Treasury Bond Futures - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF rose 0.04 points (0.04%), T rose 0.07 points (0.06%), and TL rose 0.13 points (0.11%) [3] Group 3: Market News - The Passenger Car Association slightly raised its annual forecast for 2025. It predicts 24.35 million passenger car retail sales, a 6% increase, and 5.46 million passenger car exports, a 14% increase [4] Group 4: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Charts show the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][9] Treasury Bond Futures - Charts display the historical price trends of treasury bond futures, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][14][16] Exchange Rates - Charts present the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, euro - RMB exchange rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [19][20][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: The A - share market oscillated and rose yesterday, with the Wind All - A index up 0.76% and a trading volume of 1.52 trillion yuan. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rise has three logics: long - term, market expectations of fiscal policy shift to consumption promotion and inflation recovery, with foreign capital inflows; medium - term, the "anti - involution" policy and infrastructure investment benefit upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, abundant capital liquidity. It is advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance yesterday. The central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4.9 billion yuan. The "anti - involution" policy met market expectations. In the short term, the bond market is expected to have a repair market, and short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: Yesterday, the A - share market rose, with the CSI 1000 up 1.04%, CSI 500 up 0.78%, SSE 50 up 0.55%, and SSE 300 up 0.39%. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is a significant step. Future central government financing through central bank bond purchases and more fiscal support may drive inflation. The stock market rise is due to long - term, medium - term, and short - term factors, and investors should wait for clearer signals [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yesterday, the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, the 5 - year fell, and the 2 - year was stable. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net injection. Short - term bond market is expected to repair [2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 4, 2025, IH rose by 0.58%, IF by 0.58%, IC by 1.06%, and IM by 1.53% compared to August 1 [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 0.55%, SSE 300 rose 0.39%, CSI 500 rose 0.78%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.04% on August 4, 2025, compared to August 1 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 4, 2025, TS was flat, TF was flat, T rose 0.03%, and TL rose 0.13% compared to August 1 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On August 4, 2025, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased compared to August 1 [3]. 3.3 Market News - In July, the central bank's MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net injection of 20 billion yuan, with no open - market treasury bond trading [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the historical trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [6][7][9][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts display the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18] - **Exchange Rates**: Charts present the trends of US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and currency indices [21][22][23][25][26]

Research Views Index Futures - Yesterday, the A-share market oscillated and pulled back, with the Wind All A index down 0.4% and a trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.82%, the CSI 500 index dropped 0.65%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.38%, and the SSE 300 index declined 0.02%. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rally is driven by long-term, medium-term, and short-term factors. It's advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [1]. Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts up 0.40%, 0.15%, 0.08%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 3090 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 1585 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to have a repair market, and short-term treasury bonds are expected to stop falling and stabilize [2]. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose 0.21%, IF fell 0.12%, IC dropped 0.76%, and IM declined 0.87%. Among stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.38%, the SSE 300 fell 0.02%, the CSI 500 dropped 0.65%, and the CSI 1000 declined 0.82% [3]. Treasury Futures - TS rose 0.03%, TF rose 0.08%, T rose 0.16%, and TL rose 0.42%. Yields of treasury bonds decreased, with the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields down 1.52, 0.92, 1.41, and 2.15 respectively [3]. Market News - The Politburo meeting on July 30 stated that macro policies should continue to exert force and add strength in a timely manner. Fiscal policies should be more proactive, and monetary policies should maintain liquidity and lower financing costs [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC, including their historical price trends and basis changes [6][7][9]. Treasury Futures - Charts show the trends of treasury futures contracts, yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][16][18]. Exchange Rates - Charts display the middle rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of other currency pairs such as the euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [21][22][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market oscillated and rose, with the Wind All A index up 0.45% and a trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rise is driven by long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term support for upstream cyclical sectors, and short - term capital inflows. The market is currently divided, and it is advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2344 billion yuan. The start of the third round of Sino - US trade negotiations and the improvement in risk appetite led to bond market adjustments. However, the short - term bond market is expected to recover, and short - term treasury bonds may stop falling and stabilize [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an upward trend, with different indices rising to varying degrees. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is a significant policy move. The long - term logic for the stock market rise includes expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term support for upstream cyclical sectors due to anti - involution and infrastructure investment, and short - term capital inflows from a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit - loan data. The market is currently divided [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower on Tuesday. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations and the start of Sino - US trade negotiations affected the bond market. Short - term bond market trends are expected to improve [2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.29%, IF rose 0.47%, IC rose 0.66%, and IM rose 0.91% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 0.21%, the CSI 300 index rose 0.39%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.52%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.06%, TF fell 0.17%, T fell 0.24%, and TL fell 0.77% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased [3]. 3.3 Market News - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for China's economic growth rate in 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the April forecast, and also raised the 2026 forecast by 0.2 percentage points, mainly due to stronger - than - expected economic activities in the first half of 2025 and lower - than - expected Sino - US tariffs [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [21][22][25][26].