Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing limited incremental growth, characterized by stockholder competition as year-end approaches, leading to a seasonal tightening of market liquidity and a tendency for investors to lock in profits, resulting in a potential lack of new funds [3][5] - The overall market is entering a phase of adjustment and consolidation, although it remains in a bull market, suggesting that any temporary corrections may present good investment opportunities [5][6] Equity Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted towards small-cap stocks, while the growth style was favored over value [7][9] - The volatility of small-cap stocks decreased, while the volatility of growth stocks increased [9] - The dispersion of excess returns among industries decreased, and the speed of industry rotation slowed down, with a lower proportion of rising constituent stocks [7][9] - The trading concentration increased, with the top 100 stocks accounting for a higher proportion of trading volume, while the top 5 industries saw a decrease in their trading volume share [7][9] - Market activity decreased, as indicated by lower market volatility and turnover rates [8][9] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of various sectors increased, particularly in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors [25][26] - The basis momentum in the energy and chemical sector increased, while it decreased in other sectors [26] - Volatility levels rose in all sectors except for energy and chemicals, with precious metals maintaining high volatility [25][26] - Liquidity in the black sector decreased, while other sectors saw a slight increase [25][26] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices further declined, reaching historical low levels, closely approaching historical volatility [28] - The skewness of put options for the SSE 50 decreased, while it increased for the CSI 1000, indicating that market adjustments may begin with a divergence in market capitalization styles [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market exhibited low volatility and oscillation last week [33] - The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 remained high with little change, while the premium rate for debt-type bonds decreased [33] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds declined again, remaining at a low level, with trading volume maintaining near the historical median for the past year [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For the US corn market, it has entered the export peak season with high phased supply pressure, and the global and US corn supply - demand remains relatively loose, suppressing international prices. However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US corn ending - inventory forecast supports the price [3]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the acquisition of reserve warehouses has increased since December, supporting the market bottom. But high prices limit purchasing enthusiasm, and with rumors of wheat and reserve corn regulation, the supply has increased and prices have fallen [3]. - In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, new - season corn supply is abundant, industry operating rates are rising, and supply - side pressure is increasing. Although the inventory of starch enterprises has increased, holiday备货 may boost demand, and the rise of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2190 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 1001351 lots, an increase of 12746 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 87155 lots, an increase of 9707 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 53277 lots, a decrease of 1163 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2499 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 3 - 5 monthly spread is - 47 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 104235 lots, a decrease of 27863 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 30748 lots, an increase of 2763 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 2500 lots [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 440.75 cents/bushel, an increase of 4.75 cents; the total open interest is 1616139 contracts, an increase of 13001 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 120900 contracts, an increase of 77887 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2349.61 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17 yuan/ton; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 2121.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 50 dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2570 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is 159.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.83 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 466 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The average wheat price is 2516.39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 239 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 425.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.58 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2]. - Sown areas: The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares (an increase of 0.55 million hectares), 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 31.5 tons, a decrease of 20.2 tons; at northern ports is 152 tons, a decrease of 11 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 294 tons, an increase of 18.6 tons; the starch enterprise inventory is 107.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 36 tons, an increase of 30 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 19.17 tons, an increase of 6.39 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977.9 tons, an increase of 20.9 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 141.67 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 68.22%, a decrease of 2.06%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 62.31%, a decrease of 0.53% [2]. - Processing profits: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), 74 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 11.7%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.45% [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 1.48%, a decrease of 7.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 5.17%, a decrease of 3.41% [2]. Industry News - China's corn and corn flour imports in November were 56 tons, a year - on - year increase of 87.5%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 185 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.1% [2]

Core Insights - The rapid development of the domestic options market has led to significant achievements for Zhonghui Futures, particularly in the 2025 live trading competition, showcasing the company's deep engagement in the options sector [1] Group 1: Market Participation and Growth - The number of industrial enterprises participating in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange options trading increased by 59% year-on-year, indicating a shift in market participant awareness [1] - Zhonghui Futures reported a 79% year-on-year increase in trading volume from industrial clients in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange options, with notable activity in glass, soda ash, and PTA products [1] Group 2: Policy Support and Service Innovation - The "Stabilizing Enterprises and Protecting Agriculture" project by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has acted as a catalyst, enhancing participation enthusiasm among small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - Zhonghui Futures has established a specialized workspace in Lujiazui, integrating real-time market data with industry research, and has created a "Learn-Practice-Evaluate" closed-loop system to help enterprises transition from reluctance to effective usage of options [2] Group 3: Strategic Empowerment and Professional Development - Zhonghui Futures has developed a series of option investment strategy framework courses, breaking down trading models into actionable guidelines, and provides daily quantitative reports that highlight key risk indicators for client decision-making [3] - The company has attracted numerous listed companies to its online services, positioning its options studio as a "second office" for industrial clients, and is guiding qualified enterprises to replicate off-market option revenue structures [3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Ecosystem - The development of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange options market is fostering a new industry ecosystem, with on-market options providing pricing benchmarks for off-market derivatives, creating an integrated structure of basic, innovative, and application layers [3] - Zhonghui Futures aims to promote the "Insurance + Futures" model to channel financial resources into agriculture, exploring the integration of options into supply chain finance to help small farmers secure planting profits [3] Group 5: Market Cultivation and Competitive Edge - True market cultivation involves fostering independent thinking rather than merely transmitting knowledge, which has allowed Zhonghui Futures to stand out in a competitive market [4] - The company is leveraging its professional capabilities to enhance risk management for the real economy, contributing to a new chapter in financial services for the实体经济 [4]

Financial Engineering - The stock market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.90% to close at 3834.89 during the week of November 17 to November 21, 2025, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.13% to 12538.07, with trading volume decreasing compared to the previous week [2]. - The 50ETF opened at 3.182 and closed at 3.101, reflecting a decline of 2.58% with a trading volume of 10.459 billion. The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF opened at 4.730 and closed at 4.564, down 3.73% with a trading volume of 21.119 billion. The Southern CSI 500 ETF opened at 7.334 and closed at 6.922, a decrease of 5.67% with a trading volume of 12.803 billion [3]. Options Market - From November 17 to November 21, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options increased compared to the previous week, with total open interest rising and the PCR ratio decreasing to 0.78, down 0.19 from the previous week. The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF options also saw an increase in average daily trading volume and total open interest, with a PCR of 0.80, down 0.24. The Southern CSI 500 ETF options experienced similar trends with a PCR of 0.93, down 0.23 [4]. - Short-term volatility remained relatively stable with a slight upward trend, and the implied volatility increased significantly during the week, rising by approximately 5 percentage points. The implied volatility is currently above historical volatility levels, indicating a stable sentiment in the market [5]. Investment Recommendations - The market has shown a downward trend from high levels, with large-cap blue-chip stocks experiencing smaller declines while small-cap growth stocks fell by over 5%. The PCR ratio has decreased to historically low levels, and there is a growing expectation for a rebound from oversold conditions. The implied volatility curve indicates a significant increase in the slope of out-of-the-money contracts, suggesting greater expectations for future volatility [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot premium, and a flat basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals indicates that the spot TC index of copper concentrate remains at a low negative level, and the raw material supply is still tight. The high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. On the supply side, due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters, the production capacity of domestic smelters may be restricted, and the supply of refined copper may decrease. On the demand side, after the decline in the downstream operating rate in October, it only rebounded slightly. Affected by the high copper price, the downstream attitude remains cautious, mostly conducting just - in - time restocking operations. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of reduced supply and temporarily weak demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.2, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0779, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are contracting. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,080 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,779 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 192,392 lots, up 2,174 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 22,172 lots, up 1,385 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,025 tons, down 2,900 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 6,625 tons, down 2,850 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 43,816 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,235 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,275 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 155 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME copper cash - 3 spread is 1.06 dollars/ton, up 19.95 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,180 yuan/metal ton, down 550 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 76,880 yuan/metal ton, down 550 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.4 million tons, down 6.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,690 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,450 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.4 million tons, down 22.8 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, down 194,236.1 pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 14.43%, down 0.17%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.39%, up 0.01%. The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.67%, down 0.0025%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.2, down 0.0779 [2] Industry News - Fed officials have made intensive statements. Some think there is room for a rate cut in the near future, while others are cautious about a December rate cut and expect further rate cuts in the future. The Passenger Car Association preliminarily estimates that the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in November will reach about 2.25 million units, flat month - on - month and down 8.7% year - on - year, with new - energy vehicle retail sales expected to be about 1.35 million units, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 60% for the first time. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the high - quality development of the integrated circuit industry in three aspects. The US November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, a 4 - month low; the Services PMI preliminary value is 55, and the Composite PMI preliminary value is 54.8, both at 4 - month highs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic reversal on November 20, 2025, influenced by Nvidia's strong earnings report and subsequent investor concerns about tech stock valuations and interest rate expectations [1][4][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq index opened high, rising 2.18% to a peak of 23,147.33 points, but ultimately closed down 2.15%, a drop of 486.18 points, ending at 22,087.05 points [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 exhibited similar single-day movements, reflecting overall market sentiment [3]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, surged 11.67% to 26.42 points, marking a 32.10% increase over the past five days [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Reversal - Concerns over tech stock valuations arose after Nvidia's third-quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations, leading to fears that the positive news was fully priced in and that growth may have peaked [6]. - The release of mixed U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the forecast of 52,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% [7]. - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropping from 50.1% to 35.5% [7]. Group 3: Impact on Tech Stocks - The decline in interest rate expectations negatively affected tech stocks reliant on cheap capital, leading to significant sell-offs, including Oracle's stock, which fell 6.58% [9]. - Concerns about private credit risks and potential asset valuation vulnerabilities in the financial system contributed to a broader market sell-off [10]. - Bitcoin prices continued to decline, further correlating with tech stock performance, as leveraged trading in Bitcoin exacerbated selling pressure on high-valuation tech stocks [11]. Group 4: Trading Dynamics - Programmatic trading strategies, particularly from CTA funds, amplified market volatility as they triggered further sell-offs when market thresholds were breached [12]. - The options market, particularly zero-day-to-expiration options, played a role in exacerbating market movements, as market makers adjusted positions to hedge risks, leading to concentrated selling pressure [13]. - The "iron condor" strategy in options trading was identified as a factor suppressing market rebounds, as it required market makers to sell stocks to manage risk exposure [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy and reduced investor interest in high-risk assets suggest that global markets, particularly U.S. stocks, may continue to face downward pressure [15]. - This environment may present opportunities for long-term investors to identify value amidst market volatility [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the shutdown and maintenance of plants at Hengli Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, and Zhongsha Petrochemical had a limited impact on the number of days. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's Line 3 restarted, and the PE production and capacity utilization rate increased month-on-month. The downstream agricultural film operating rate remained stable, the packaging film operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall operating rate of PE downstream decreased slightly. Production enterprise inventories accumulated significantly, social inventories decreased slightly, and total inventories accumulated. The cost of oil-based production decreased slightly, the cost of coal-based production increased slightly, and the losses of both oil-based and coal-based processes deepened. [2] - This week, Zhongying Petrochemical's plant will be shut down for maintenance, and the plants of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Zhongsha Petrochemical, and Shanghai Petrochemical are expected to restart. PE production and capacity utilization rate are expected to change little month-on-month. In November, there is less new planned maintenance capacity for PE, and at the same time, two new plants of Guangxi Petrochemical continue to increase production, resulting in high supply pressure. [2] - The demand for northern greenhouse films is gradually declining, while the demand for southern greenhouse films still provides some support. Orders and operating rates for agricultural films are expected to fluctuate slightly; orders for packaging films are marginally weakening, and demand follow-up is limited. [2] - In terms of cost, OPEC's production increase will continue until the end of the year, and the situation of stronger supply than demand for crude oil is expected to continue. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela may intensify, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting international oil prices. In the short term, L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range expected to be around 6750 - 6950. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan; the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts were 6785 yuan/ton, 6852 yuan/ton, and 6906 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 58 yuan, 50 yuan, and 43 yuan. [2] - The trading volume was 260,592 lots, an increase of 53,772 lots; the open interest was 548,344 lots, an increase of 6,049 lots. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was -67, a decrease of 8; the long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 473,161 lots, an increase of 17,538 lots; the short positions were 584,549 lots, an increase of 20,653 lots; the net long positions were -111,388 lots, a decrease of 3,115 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6932.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.83 yuan; in East China, it was 7115.24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.33 yuan. [2] - The basis was 147.17, an increase of 40.17. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.96 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.31 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 571.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.13 US dollars. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 736 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 50.41%, 31.67%, and 49.96% respectively. The operating rate of packaging film decreased by 0.37 percentage points, while the others remained unchanged. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.89%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.68%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 13.05%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, China's total polyethylene production was 673,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points compared to the previous period. [2] - From November 7th to 13th, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films remained the same as before, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.4%. [2] - As of November 12th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.96%; as of November 7th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 500,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.86%. [2] - From November 8th to 14th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.98 to 7256 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 35.43 yuan/ton to - 405.86 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 2.43% to 7051 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 211.57 yuan/ton to - 182.57 yuan/ton. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao area has narrowed month - on - month, with a slight destocking in bonded warehouses and continuous inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses. After the concentrated arrival of previously postponed overseas orders, the bonded warehouse inventory is expected to increase further, while the general trade warehouse inventory inflow will significantly decrease. The downstream demand remains at a normal level of rigid demand, but the inventory inflow is still greater than the outflow, so the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area may continue to accumulate in the short term. - The production scheduling of tire maintenance enterprises in China last week returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. This week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order requirements, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,300 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 136,995 lots, a decrease of 3,402 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 68,949 lots, a decrease of 224 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 30,818 lots, an increase of 2,953 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber are - 10,386 lots, an increase of 563 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 116,210 tons, a decrease of 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber are 50,703 tons, a decrease of 505 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.91 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 55.66 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.11 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.4 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.2 days, an increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.05 days, an increase of 0.23 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.38%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.28%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared to 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. The US government was "shut down" for 40 days, and the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased simultaneously this period, but the domestic port inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks; the molten iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. However, the positive macro - situation provided some support for the current weak market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level. For operation, short - term trading is recommended with attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 765.00 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan; the position volume was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 23 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 33,799 lots, up 1,644 lots. The DCE warehouse receipts were 800.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.15 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.88 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 834 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 765 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 69 yuan, down 7 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.05 US dollars/ton, down 2.65 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.20, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 832 yuan/ton. The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,069.00 tons, down 144.80 tons; the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) were 2,769.30 tons, down 544.80 tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,624.13 tons, up 351.20 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,009.94 tons, up 160.08 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 11,130.90 tons, down 502.10 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.99 tons, down 0.36 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.96%, down 1.01%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.83 tons, down 5.92 tons. The BDI index was 2,104.00, up 41.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.42 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.15%, up 1.42%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 87.79%, down 0.80%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 tons, down 388 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.56%, down 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.41%, up 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 15.95%, down 1.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 16.77%, up 0.96% [2] Industry News - From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 3,069.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 tons. The total shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore were 2,548.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 tons. From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2,769.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544.8 tons; the arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2,741.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477.2 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,525.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.1 tons [2]

Market Overview - The crypto market consolidated after strong gains, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $114,500 and Ether (ETH) at $4,120, as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and a potential U.S.-China trade deal [1] - The altcoin market remains volatile, with several tokens giving back gains, while HBAR and TAO posted double-digit increases [2] Derivatives Positioning - The BTC futures market shows a sustained recovery, with open interest increasing to $27.62 billion, indicating traders are gradually re-engaging [3] - Funding rates have turned predominantly positive, with Binance reporting a high annualized rate of 7.99%, suggesting a bullish bias in the market [3] - The bitcoin options market reflects a bullish outlook, supported by a positive implied volatility term structure and a 25-delta skew of 4%, indicating traders are paying a premium for call options [3] - Liquidations totaled $270 million in 24 hours, with a 71-29 split between longs and shorts, highlighting market volatility [3] Altcoin Performance - HBAR experienced a significant 17% increase after the announcement of its ETF listing on NYSE Arca, with daily trading volume spiking to $871 million, a 344% rise [3] - TRUMP, a memecoin, surged 11% following news of an imminent trade deal with China [3] - The altcoin sector continues to underperform Bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator dropping to 28/100 from 78/100 in September [3]