Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of Bitcoin spot ETFs, with institutional capital significantly increasing their market share, currently holding over 1.296 million BTC, which is nearly 6.5% of the circulating supply [1][5] Group 1: Institutional Dominance - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has emerged as a dominant player, managing approximately 744,500 BTC, representing about 3.3% of the total Bitcoin supply [3] - IBIT has been increasing its holdings at a rate of about 4,300 BTC per month, potentially adding around 130,000 BTC by the end of the year [3] - Wells Fargo has significantly increased its exposure to IBIT, raising its holdings from $26 million to over $160 million, indicating a shift from a passive to an active investment strategy [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The influx of ETF capital is tightening the supply-demand structure of the Bitcoin market, with net inflows surpassing the daily mining supply of approximately 450 BTC post-halving [5] - This structural change is leading to stronger price support while also increasing price sensitivity to macroeconomic factors and fund flows [5] - Bitcoin recently reached a historical high of $124,000, closely linked to expectations of interest rate cuts and strong ETF inflows [5] Group 3: Liquidity and Trading Challenges - The concentration of holdings in top funds like IBIT may lead to potential liquidity bottlenecks, as ETF shares cannot be directly redeemed for underlying Bitcoin [6] - The rising demand for efficient risk management tools is driving the development of new derivatives markets that combine traditional financial assets with cryptocurrencies [6] Group 4: Decentralized Trading Platforms - The value of decentralized exchanges like XBIT is being reassessed as centralized exchanges face potential liquidity constraints and stricter regulations [8] - XBIT allows users to retain actual control of their assets, executing trades through smart contracts without relying on centralized custodians [8] Group 5: Future Variables - The path to surpassing 1.5 million BTC in ETF holdings is not guaranteed, as various factors could alter the current trajectory, including macroeconomic changes and regulatory dynamics [9] - The concentration of holdings may raise systemic risk concerns, prompting regulatory scrutiny or market corrections [9] Group 6: Market Evolution - Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated over $50 billion in assets under management (AUM) in less than a year and a half, reshaping the market ecosystem [11] - The interaction between institutional products and the underlying scarce digital asset is entering a more complex phase, with significant implications for market dynamics [11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[43] - **Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Parameters and Settings**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 27, 2025[44] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[44] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end, short the corresponding nominal principal amount of CSI 500 (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000) stock index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantity of the spot and futures ends based on the product's net value[44] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days. On that day, close the position at the closing price and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[44] - **Remarks**: Allocate equal principal to the spot and futures ends, without considering transaction fees, impact costs, and the non-infinite divisibility of futures contracts[44] - **Evaluation**: The strategy is designed to optimize hedging by continuously adjusting positions based on basis convergence factors[43] Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The strategy selects the contract with the smallest annualized basis discount for hedging[45] - **Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Parameters and Settings**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 27, 2025[45] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[45] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end, short the corresponding nominal principal amount of CSI 500 (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000) stock index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantity of the spot and futures ends based on the product's net value[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: When rebalancing, calculate the annualized basis of all tradable futures contracts on the day and select the contract with the smallest annualized basis discount for opening a position. Hold the same contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days, then select a new contract (excluding futures contracts with less than 8 days to expiration). Even if the selection result is to hold the original contract unchanged, continue to hold for 8 trading days[45] - **Remarks**: Allocate equal principal to the spot and futures ends, without considering transaction fees, impact costs, and the non-infinite divisibility of futures contracts[45] - **Evaluation**: The strategy aims to minimize basis discount by selecting the optimal contract for hedging[45] Model Backtesting Results Continuous Hedging Strategy - **CSI 500 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: -2.77% (monthly), -2.08% (quarterly), -0.98% (minimum basis)[47] - **Volatility**: 3.88% (monthly), 4.77% (quarterly), 4.69% (minimum basis)[47] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -8.15% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis)[47] - **Net Value**: 0.9215 (monthly), 0.9405 (quarterly), 0.9718 (minimum basis)[47] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 17.53 (minimum basis)[47] - **2025 YTD Return**: -3.31% (monthly), -1.35% (quarterly), -0.69% (minimum basis)[47] - **CSI 300 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: 0.58% (monthly), 0.77% (quarterly), 1.42% (minimum basis)[52] - **Volatility**: 3.02% (monthly), 3.37% (quarterly), 3.16% (minimum basis)[52] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis)[52] - **Net Value**: 1.0171 (monthly), 1.0226 (quarterly), 1.0418 (minimum basis)[52] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 15.46 (minimum basis)[52] - **2025 YTD Return**: -0.63% (monthly), 0.27% (quarterly), 0.82% (minimum basis)[52] - **SSE 50 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: 1.07% (monthly), 2.04% (quarterly), 1.76% (minimum basis)[56] - **Volatility**: 3.14% (monthly), 3.57% (quarterly), 3.16% (minimum basis)[56] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis)[56] - **Net Value**: 1.0315 (monthly), 1.0605 (quarterly), 1.0521 (minimum basis)[56] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 15.81 (minimum basis)[56] - **2025 YTD Return**: 0.07% (monthly), 1.11% (quarterly), 1.09% (minimum basis)[56] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures**: - **Annualized Return**: -6.00% (monthly), -4.44% (quarterly), -3.79% (minimum basis)[58] - **Volatility**: 4.73% (monthly), 5.78% (quarterly), 5.60% (minimum basis)[58] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis)[58] - **Net Value**: 0.8523 (monthly), 0.8843 (quarterly), 0.9009 (minimum basis)[58] - **Annual Turnover**: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 16.02 (minimum basis)[58] - **2025 YTD Return**: -8.76% (monthly), -4.36% (quarterly), -3.55% (minimum basis)[58] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset[61] - **Construction Process**: - **Algorithm**: Based on the methodology in the report series "Exploring Market Sentiment Implied in the Options Market"[61] - **Data**: As of June 27, 2025, the 30-day VIX values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 17.47, 16.92, 23.84, and 21.35, respectively[61] - **Evaluation**: The index accurately reflects the volatility expectations of the market for different time horizons[61] Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices[69] - **Construction Process**: - **Algorithm**: Based on the methodology in the report series "Exploring Market Sentiment Implied in the Options Market"[69] - **Data**: As of June 27, 2025, the SKEW values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 95.51, 97.95, 93.74, and 101.14, respectively[70] - **Evaluation**: The index provides valuable insights into market expectations of extreme events and tail risks[70] Factor Backtesting Results Cinda-VIX - **SSE 50**: 17.47[61] - **CSI 300**: 16.92[61] - **CSI 500**: 23.84[61] - **CSI 1000**: 21.35[61] Cinda-SKEW - **SSE 50**: 95.51[70] - **CSI 300**: 97.95[70] - **CSI 500**: 93.74[70] - **CSI 1000**: 101.14[70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The European futures market presents a pattern of "system - led, complementary functions, and regional division of labor". With Western Europe and the UK as dual cores and Northern Europe as a characteristic sector, mainstream financial futures contracts like EURO - Bund futures and STOXX index futures have positions in the hundreds of billions, and commodity futures contracts such as Brent crude oil and LME copper also have positions exceeding tens of billions [1][2]. - In 2024, the European futures market showed significant differentiation in activity. The UK market had strong growth, Western Europe was the largest trading volume area, and Northern Europe had a small - scale but specialized market [36]. - The European futures market has a multi - core and multi - level capital distribution, with leading varieties dominating and many characteristic contracts meeting various segmented needs [47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 European Futures Market Development History - **Origin**: It originated in the late Middle Ages, and the Netherlands created the first large - scale derivatives market in history through tulip bulb futures trading in the 17th century [8]. - **UK**: In 1877, the London Metal Exchange Company was established, marking the birth of modern metal futures trading. Financial futures emerged in 1982 with the establishment of LIFFE. After multiple mergers and acquisitions, LIFFE is now under ICE Futures Europe. Regulatory framework changes, such as the "Big Bang" in 1986 and the implementation of the Financial Services and Markets Act in 2000, have also influenced the market. Brexit in 2018 led to regulatory adjustments [9][10]. - **Western Europe**: The modern futures market emerged after World War II. Eurex, Euronext, and EEX have played important roles. Eurex became the European interest - rate derivatives pricing center, Euronext integrated European financial derivatives business, and EEX became a leading platform for energy and environmental products [12][13]. - **Northern Europe**: Its trading tradition dates back to the Hanseatic League in the Middle Ages. After World War II, through economic cooperation, the derivatives market developed. In 1996, the Nordic Power Exchange was established, launching the world's first day - ahead power futures contract [14][16]. 3.2 European Futures Products - **UK**: ICE Futures Europe and LME are the cores, covering financial derivatives and commodities. Products include FTSE 100 index futures, gilt futures, Brent crude oil futures, and LME copper and aluminum futures [20][21]. - **Western Europe**: Eurex, Euronext, and EEX provide a wide range of products. There are STOXX 600 and DAX index futures, EURO - Bund and other interest - rate futures, wheat and power futures, and euro foreign - exchange futures [20][27]. - **Northern Europe**: OMX provides derivatives mainly for local and international investors. Key products are OMXS30 index futures and Nordic power futures [33][34]. 3.3 European Futures Market Volume and Price Overview - **Trading Volume in 2024**: The UK market had a turnover of about 1.78 billion lots, a year - on - year increase of 25.5%. Western Europe had a turnover close to 2.3 billion lots, a year - on - year increase of nearly 8%. Northern Europe had a turnover of 63.81 million lots with a slight decline [36]. - **Market Structure**: Western Europe has the most diverse and active market, with stock index futures leading in trading volume. The UK market is energy and interest - rate oriented, and the Northern European market has a small scale but a concentrated trading structure, focusing on local financial markets and specialized fields [40][41]. - **Position Amount at the End of 2024**: Many futures varieties have large position amounts, with some reaching hundreds of billions or even trillions of euros or dollars. For example, EURO - Bund futures had a position of over 1.5 trillion euros, and LME copper futures had a position of 58.6 billion dollars [46].

Core Viewpoint - Gold exhibits a unique price fluctuation mechanism influenced by multiple factors, including currency pricing systems, macroeconomic risks, market structure evolution, supply-demand elasticity, and technical reinforcement mechanisms. Group 1: Currency Pricing System Linkage - The international gold price is negatively correlated with the US dollar index, where a 1% increase in the dollar index raises gold purchasing costs, suppressing investment demand [1]. - Major central banks' balance sheet expansions directly elevate gold price benchmarks, with each additional $1 trillion in quantitative easing raising gold valuations by 8%-12% [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Risk Matrix - The forward price of gold is determined by the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations, with gold prices reaching a historical peak of $2075 per ounce when the real yield on US Treasuries fell below -1% [3]. - A 10-point increase in the global geopolitical risk index results in a 3.2% increase in average monthly gold holdings, evidenced by events like the Crimea crisis and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. Group 3: Market Structure Evolution - Emerging market central banks have increased gold purchases for 13 consecutive years, with global official reserves rising by 1136 tons in 2022, accounting for 23% of annual supply [5]. - An increase of 100,000 open contracts in COMEX gold futures raises price volatility by 1.8 basis points, with significant spikes in implied volatility during events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident [6]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Elasticity - The average extraction cost of the top ten gold mines has risen to $1250 per ounce, with newly discovered reserves declining by 15% year-on-year [7]. - India and China account for 55% of global physical gold demand, with a 40% surge in imports during festive seasons, despite India's recent increase in import tax to 15% [8]. Group 5: Technical Reinforcement Mechanisms - Algorithmic trading strategies hold over 30 million ounces of gold, with momentum factors contributing over 35% to price volatility, triggering significant buy orders upon breaking key price levels [9]. - A 50% year-on-year increase in Google searches for "gold investment" correlates with a 68% probability of gold price increases in the following 30 days [10].