Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC's supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly, and its trend will continue to be weak. Caustic soda's upward space may be limited, and its later performance is affected by the price trend of liquid chlorine [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,892 yuan/ton (-14), the East China basis is -112 yuan/ton (+4), and the South China basis is -62 yuan/ton (-16) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,875 yuan/ton (-5), the calcium carbide profit is 125 yuan/ton (-5), the gross profit of PVC's calcium carbide method is -552 yuan/ton (-48), the gross profit of PVC's ethylene method is -695 yuan/ton (-2), and the PVC export profit is -9.0 US dollars/ton (-1.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 38.6 tons (-0.9), the social inventory is 37.3 tons (+1.1), the operation rate of PVC's calcium carbide method is 80.73% (+0.30%), the operation rate of PVC's ethylene method is 65.46% (-1.92%), and the overall operation rate is 76.50% (-0.31%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 65.8 tons (+2.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,408 yuan/ton (+28), and the basis of Shandong's 32% liquid caustic soda is 61 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: Shandong's 32% liquid caustic soda is quoted at 790 yuan/ton (+20), and Shandong's 50% liquid caustic soda is quoted at 1,270 yuan/ton (+20) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of Shandong's caustic soda is 1,478 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of Shandong's chlor - alkali (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 374.5 yuan/ton (-137.5), the comprehensive profit of Shandong's chlor - alkali (1 ton of PVC) is 139.53 yuan/ton (+59.50), and the comprehensive profit of Northwest's chlor - alkali (1 ton of PVC) is 1,294.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 38.42 tons (-0.62), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.30 tons (-0.28), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.50% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 81.56% (+0.89%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.25% (-0.13%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 75.17% (-3.40%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: In July, upstream devices are under centralized maintenance, but the overall operation rate is expected to decline slightly due to chlor - alkali profit support. New production capacities are expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure remains [3] - Demand side: It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the operation rate of downstream products is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the export orders are decreasing. Uncertain anti - dumping policies may affect exports [3] - Cost side: The calcium carbide market is expected to be weak, and the cost support for PVC's calcium carbide method is weak. The cancellation of the US export restriction on ethane to China may reduce the cost of PVC's ethylene method later [3] Caustic Soda - The sharp decline in Shandong's liquid chlorine price increases the marginal cost of caustic soda, suppressing the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali. The weak demand and increasing supply of liquid chlorine may lead to further price drops and potential passive production cuts of caustic soda [3] - A Shandong alumina factory has raised the purchase price of liquid caustic soda, and downstream low - price restocking supports a slight rebound in the near - term spot price, but the overall demand improvement is limited [3] - Supply side: The operation rate of caustic soda is decreasing due to device maintenance, but new production capacities are expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of the main downstream alumina is rising steadily, while the non - aluminum downstream demand is still weak [3] Strategy - PVC: After the macro - sentiment eases, PVC's trend returns to the fundamentals. It is expected to continue weak and volatile in the short term. With the inventory expected to accumulate, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: There is still room for the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali to be compressed, the inventory reduction is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment eases, PVC's trend returns to fundamentals. Its supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory is expected to continue accumulating. For caustic soda, the current chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers with limited upward momentum [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,914 yuan/ton (-16); the East China basis is -134 yuan/ton (+36); the South China basis is -64 yuan/ton (+16) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -504 yuan/ton (-10); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -693 yuan/ton (-53); the PVC export profit is -5.2 dollars/ton (-4.8) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 39.5 tons (-0.6); the social PVC inventory is 36.2 tons (+0.7); the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.73% (+0.30%); the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 65.46% (-1.92%); the overall PVC operation rate is 76.50% (-0.31%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 62.9 tons (-1.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,380 yuan/ton (-11); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 26 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 512.0 yuan/ton (-40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 80.03 yuan/ton (+0.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 38.42 tons (-0.62); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.30 tons (-0.28); the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.50% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 80.67% (-0.07%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.25% (-0.13%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 75.17% (-3.40%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Previous maintenance continues, and the overall PVC operation rate declines slightly. Many enterprises have planned maintenance, but the chlor - alkali profit prevents significant production cuts. New production capacities such as Bohua, Yaowang, and Wanhua are expected to be put into operation, offsetting some of the maintenance losses. The supply side is under pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products continues to decline, and domestic demand remains weak. Export orders are stable, and exports continue to increase. India's BIS standard policy is postponed for 6 months, supporting the short - term export market, but the anti - dumping policy is still uncertain [3] - Cost side: The calcium carbide market is weak due to more downstream maintenance, and the cost support for calcium carbide - based PVC is weak. The lifting of the US ban on ethane exports to China may reduce the cost of ethylene - based PVC later, but the impact is lagged [3] - Inventory: Due to sufficient supply and poor downstream demand, the social PVC inventory continues to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The price of liquid chlorine drops significantly, increasing the marginal cost of caustic soda. There are concerns about potential passive production cuts. The operation rate of caustic soda decreases due to more maintenance, but the production cut intention is low. After maintenance, the operation rate is expected to rise, and new production capacities are planned to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina is stable, with new production capacities expected in Shandong. The delivery volume of a Shandong alumina plant decreases, and the stocking enthusiasm declines. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak [3] - Inventory and profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Maintain a neutral stance. After the macro - sentiment eases, pay attention to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Maintain a neutral stance. With limited upward momentum, consider shorting on rallies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [5] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The PVC price rebounded due to the market's expectation of supply - side regulation, but the weak supply - demand pattern remains, and the rebound may not last. The caustic soda futures price rose due to concerns about passive production cuts, but its fundamentals also lack positive drivers [4]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,930 yuan/ton (+109), the East China basis was - 170 yuan/ton (-69), and the South China basis was - 80 yuan/ton (-59) [2]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 504 yuan/ton (-10), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 693 yuan/ton (-53), and the PVC export profit was - 0.4 dollars/ton (+7.4) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory was 39.5 tons (-0.6), the social PVC inventory was 36.2 tons (+0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.43% (+0.81%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 67.38% (-1.85%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.81% (+0.07%) [2]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 62.9 tons (-1.9) [2]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,391 yuan/ton (+33), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 15 yuan/ton (-33) [2]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,415 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 552.0 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 70.03 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+50.51) [3]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 39.04 tons (+2.39), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.58 tons (-0.27), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+1.30%) [3]. - Downstream开工: The operating rate of alumina was 80.67% (-0.07%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.38% (-0.35%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.57% (-2.23%) [3]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The previous maintenance continued, and the overall PVC operating rate decreased slightly. The new 400,000 - ton plant of Bohua was put into trial operation, and there were expectations of new capacity from Yaowang, Wanhua, and Haiwan, so the supply side was under pressure [4]. - Demand side: The downstream product operating rate continued to decline, domestic demand was weak, and export orders were stable. The BIS standard policy in India was postponed for 6 months, which supported the export market in the short term, but the anti - dumping policy was uncertain [4]. - Inventory: The social PVC inventory stopped falling and rebounded [4]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: The operating rate of upstream caustic soda continued to rise, and there were plans to put into production 300,000 - ton capacities of Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, so the supply - side pressure was expected to increase [4]. - Demand side: The operating rate of the main downstream alumina was stable, there were expectations of new capacity in Shandong, and the export support was okay, but the non - aluminum downstream demand was weak [4]. - Inventory: The inventory removal was not smooth [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The current weak supply - demand pattern of PVC has not significantly improved. The supply side is under pressure due to new capacity and limited reduction, while the demand side has weak domestic demand and uncertain export prospects. The PVC market is under pressure with low valuation and lack of positive drivers. For caustic soda, the supply pressure is expected to increase, the demand support is weak, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has room for compression [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4,821 yuan/ton (-68), the East China basis is -41 yuan/ton (+68), and the South China basis is -21 yuan/ton (-22) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,780 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,800 yuan/ton (-90) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -504 yuan/ton (-10), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -693 yuan/ton (-53), and the PVC export profit is -7.9 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] - Inventory and开工: The PVC factory inventory is 395,000 tons (-6,000), the PVC social inventory is 362,000 tons (+7,000), the PVC calcium carbide method开工 rate is 80.43% (+0.81%), the PVC ethylene method开工 rate is 67.38% (-1.85%), and the PVC开工 rate is 76.81% (+0.07%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 629,000 tons (-19,000) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 2,358 yuan/ton (+39), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 48 yuan/ton (-70) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (-10), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 672.0 yuan/ton (-111.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 60.03 yuan/ton (-71.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,233.53 yuan/ton (-20.00) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 390,400 tons (+23,900), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 25,800 tons (-2,700), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 82.50% (+1.30%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 80.67% (-0.07%), the printing and dyeing East China开工 rate is 60.38% (-0.35%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 78.57% (-2.23%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The previous maintenance continued, the overall PVC开工 rate decreased slightly, but the chlor - alkali profit supported the production. The new 400,000 - ton plant of Bohua was in trial operation, and there were expectations of new capacity from Yaowang, Wanhua, and Haiwan, offsetting the maintenance losses to some extent [3] - Demand side: The downstream product开工 rate continued to decline, domestic demand was weak, and the export orders were stable with continuous growth. The extension of the BIS standard policy in India supported the export market in the short term, but the anti - dumping policy was still uncertain [3] - Inventory: The PVC social inventory stopped falling and rebounded due to sufficient supply and weak demand [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The upstream开工 rate continued to rise, and there were plans to put into production 300,000 - ton capacities from Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, increasing the supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The main downstream alumina开工 rate was stable, the spot price continued to fall, and there were no new production cuts or maintenance in the short term. The non - aluminum downstream demand was weak, and the Shandong spot price might continue to decline [3] - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory increased due to the decline in spot price and low procurement enthusiasm [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. After the macro - sentiment eases, the PVC trend returns to the fundamentals. The supply - demand pattern is still weak, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral. The basis is gradually repaired, but the fundamentals lack positive drivers, the spot price is expected to continue to decline, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has room for compression [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - The PVC market remains in a weak supply - demand situation, with the supply surplus unchanged and cost - side support weak, while the caustic soda market faces increasing supply pressure and lack of positive drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,871 yuan/ton (+27), the East China basis was - 141 yuan/ton (-27), and the South China basis was - 41 yuan/ton (-17) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was - 1.0 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), social inventory was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate was 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC开工 rate was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,279 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 159 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 111.28 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,233.53 yuan/ton (-50.51) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda开工 rate was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate was 80.74% (-0.13%), the dyeing and printing East China开工 rate was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The supply - demand pattern remains weak, with the supply surplus unchanged due to high production and expected new capacity in 6 - 7 months, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand is weak domestically, while the export is increasing, but the sustainability of exports is uncertain [3] Caustic Soda - The supply pressure is expected to increase due to planned new capacity, the market trading is weak, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is shrinking. The demand of the main downstream alumina is increasing, but the non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The factory inventory is still high, and the caustic soda market lacks positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Adopt a cautiously bearish approach and continue to monitor macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress, with the market remaining under pressure [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to both PVC and caustic soda [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are weak in the medium - to - long - term, lacking upward driving forces, and the price increase may not be sustainable. For caustic soda, the short - term trend follows the basis repair logic, but there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,899 yuan/ton (+66), the East China basis was - 139 yuan/ton (-26), and the South China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,860 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production was - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production was - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit was - 3.7 dollars/ton (+0.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory was 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social PVC inventory was 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 80.45% (+0.55%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 67.36% (-3.77%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.83% (-0.64%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,298 yuan/ton (+25), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 296 yuan/ton (-25) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,380 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 819.5 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 267.53 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,264.03 yuan/ton (-141.52) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.53 tons (+2.32), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 80.87% (+0.52%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.36% (-0.14%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.56% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Due to ongoing previous maintenance, the overall PVC operation level decreased slightly month - on - month. Later, with reduced maintenance, production is expected to return. Supported by chlor - alkali profits, it is difficult to drive significant PVC production cuts. With the expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the PVC supply pressure remains high [3] - Demand side: The operation of downstream products decreased slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm was low, continuing the weak domestic demand pattern. The PVC social inventory continued to decline month - on - month but at a slow pace. With increased supply and weak demand later, the social inventory may enter an accumulation phase [3] - Export: Export orders are being delivered steadily. There is no progress on the Indian BIS certification extension policy and anti - dumping policy. The sustainability of the export side needs to be monitored [3] - Price: Affected by the Middle East situation, the energy - chemical sector rose generally. Driven by market sentiment, both PVC futures and spot prices increased [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are still many upstream device maintenance, mainly concentrated in North and East China. The operation in Shandong decreased month - on - month. However, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintained high - load production. The overall caustic soda operation remains at a high level. With the expected new caustic soda capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure will further increase [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina increased slightly, and the restarted and newly - built capacities are gradually stabilizing. The spot price of alumina declined. A Shandong alumina plant maintained a high delivery volume and lowered the liquid caustic soda purchase price by 20 yuan to 800 yuan/ton ex - factory. Non - aluminum demand remains weak, with the dyeing operation rate declining month - on - month and the terminal operation of viscose staple fiber at a low level. Downstream buyers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase for immediate needs [3] - Price: The current comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has fallen to a relatively low level. The futures are deeply discounted, and the spot price of caustic soda has decreased. In the short term, it follows the basis repair logic. However, the caustic soda factory inventory has risen to a relatively high level and is difficult to digest, and there is still room to compress the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [3] Strategy - PVC: Neutral. In the medium - to - long - term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals are weak, lacking upward driving forces. The price increase may not be sustainable. In the short term, it may maintain a volatile upward pattern. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the export side dynamics and new production progress [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The short - term trend follows the basis repair logic. However, the caustic soda factory inventory has risen to a relatively high level and is difficult to digest, and there is still room to compress the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit. The later trend of caustic soda is expected to be under pressure [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Views - For PVC, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand fundamentals are weak with insufficient upward drivers, but the current valuation is low, and the instability in the Middle East may boost the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Attention should be paid to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4] - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to remain weak, with rising and hard - to - digest factory inventories. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4860 yuan/ton (+1), the East China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis was - 40 yuan/ton (-31) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4820 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2880 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit was - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit was - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit was - 4.0 US dollars/ton (-3.4) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social PVC inventory was 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.45% (+0.55%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 67.36% (-3.77%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.83% (-0.64%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2276 yuan/ton (+13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 380 yuan/ton (-76) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton (-20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1380 yuan/ton (-20) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1665 yuan/ton (-63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 882.0 yuan/ton (-182.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 310.03 yuan/ton (-132.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1405.55 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.53 tons (+2.32), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operating rate was 80.90% (-2.60%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operating rate was 80.87% (+0.52%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China was 61.36% (-0.14%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 80.56% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Due to ongoing previous maintenance, the overall PVC operating level declined slightly month - on - month. With reduced future maintenance, production is expected to return. Supported by chlor - alkali profits, it is difficult to drive significant PVC production cuts. Coupled with the expected new production capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remains high [3] - Demand side: The operating rate of downstream products declined slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm was low, with the weak domestic demand pattern continuing. The PVC social inventory continued to decline month - on - month, but the destocking rate was slow. With increased supply and weak demand in the future, the social inventory may enter a restocking phase. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory. Export orders are being stably delivered, but there is no progress on the Indian BIS certification extension policy and anti - dumping policy. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the export side [3] - Medium - to - long - term: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are weak, with insufficient upward drivers. However, the current valuation is low, and the instability in the Middle East may boost the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Attention should be paid to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are still many upstream device maintenance, mostly concentrated in the North China and East China main regions. The operating rate in Shandong declined month - on - month. However, driven by good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production. The overall caustic soda operating rate remains high, and there is an expected new production capacity coming on stream from June to July, further increasing the supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operating rate of the main downstream alumina increased slightly, but the capacity return was not obvious after profit recovery, and the new production capacity in the second quarter was not fully released. The delivery volume of a Shandong alumina plant has returned to a high level, and the liquid caustic soda purchase price has started to be continuously reduced. Since June 17, it has been further reduced by 20 yuan to an ex - factory price of 800 yuan/ton, and the caustic soda spot price has also followed the decline. Non - aluminum demand remains weak, the printing and dyeing operating rate declined month - on - month, and the operating rate of terminals such as viscose staple fiber is at a low level. Downstream is cautious about high prices, and purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with continuous negative feedback on the demand side [3] - Cost side: The price of raw salt has fallen to a low level, and the power cost has decreased after the coal price reduction, so the cost support for caustic soda has shifted down [3] - Overall: The current comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is good, but the increasing factory inventory of caustic soda is difficult to digest. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [3] Strategy - PVC: Neutral. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are weak, with insufficient upward drivers. However, the current valuation is low, and the instability in the Middle East may boost the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Wait for a rebound to short on rallies. Continue to pay attention to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautiously short for hedging. The current comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is good, but the increasing factory inventory of caustic soda is difficult to digest. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautious short - selling hedging [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive support for its fundamentals, with limited upward driving force and limited downward space at the current low valuation. Attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with acceptable comprehensive profits, slow inventory digestion, and large inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,810 yuan/ton (- 6), the East China basis was - 130 yuan/ton (+ 6), and the South China basis was - 10 yuan/ton (+ 16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,680 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,800 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit was 80 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 520 yuan/ton (- 15), and the PVC export profit was 0.9 US dollars/ton (- 2.0) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 39.8 million tons (+ 1.4), the social inventory of PVC was 36.1 million tons (- 0.1), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production was 79.90% (+ 4.19%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production was 71.13% (- 0.58%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.47% (+ 2.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 62.6 million tons (+ 8.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,324 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 426 yuan/ton (- 16) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,400 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 975.8 yuan/ton (+ 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 463.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,446.05 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 38.21 million tons (- 1.05), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.79 million tons (+ 0.06), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 83.50% (- 0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 80.35% (+ 0.82%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 61.50% (- 1.18%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.56% (- 0.04%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: There were few new upstream maintenance, the PVC operation rate increased month - on - month, the current output was at a high level in the same period, and it was difficult to drive significant PVC production cuts under the support of chlor - alkali profits. Coupled with the expected new production capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remained high [3]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operation of PVC was weakly stable, with downstream markets mainly making rigid - demand purchases, and the weak demand situation was difficult to change [3]. - Inventory side: Downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices. The social inventory of PVC continued to decline month - on - month but at a slower rate, while the in - factory inventory increased. With the increase in supply and weak demand in the later period, the social inventory may increase slightly. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory [3]. - Export: Export orders were continuously and stably delivered. The extension policy of India's BIS certification expired at the end of June, and there was no progress in the policy at present. Coupled with the rainy season suppressing terminal demand, it was expected to drag down export demand [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: There were still many new maintenance plans in June. The 1.02 million - ton production capacity of Fujian Southeast Electro - Chemical was shut down for maintenance, and maintenance in Shandong also increased. The operation rate in Shandong decreased month - on - month. However, due to acceptable chlor - alkali profits supporting upstream manufacturers to maintain high - load production, the overall operation rate of caustic soda remained at a high level. Moreover, new caustic soda production capacity was expected to be put into operation from June to July, so the supply pressure on caustic soda remained high [3]. - Demand side: The delivery volume to the main downstream increased, and the current delivery volume exceeded the daily consumption. After entering the inventory accumulation stage, attention should be paid to the continuity of later - stage stockpiling. After the production profit of alumina was restored, new and restarted production capacities were gradually released, and the operation rate of alumina increased month - on - month, but the restart was not obvious yet. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong was reduced by 10 yuan/ton to 830 yuan/ton since June 11, which may drag down the price of caustic soda. Non - aluminum demand was not good, the operation rate of printing and dyeing decreased month - on - month, downstream customers were cautious about high prices, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand [3]. - Cost side: With the decline in coal and electricity prices, the cost support for caustic soda decreased [3]. Strategy - PVC: Neutral. Given the continuous high supply and inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lack of positive fundamental support, the upward driving force of PVC is insufficient. At the current low valuation, the downward space is also limited. Attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic Soda: Cautious short - selling hedging. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with acceptable comprehensive profits, slow inventory digestion, and large inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [4].

氯碱日报 | 2025-06-06 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4747元/吨（-87）；华东基差-97元/吨（+87）;华南基差3元/吨（+72）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4650元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4750元/吨（-15）。 烧碱厂库延续下降，PVC社库去化速率放缓 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润80元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-547元/吨（+74）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-505元/吨（+11）；PVC出口利润5.2美元/吨（-2.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.5万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存36.3万吨（-1.5）；PVC电石法开工率79.90%（+4.19%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.13%（-0.58%）；PVC开工率77.47%（+2.87%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量54.1万吨（-6.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2332元/吨（-35）；山东32%液碱基差418元/吨（+35）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价880元/吨（+0）；山东50% ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-06-05 需求支撑不足，烧碱延续震荡走低 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4834元/吨（+89）；华东基差-184元/吨（-79）;华南基差-69元/吨（-64）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4650元/吨（+10）；华南电石法报价4765元/吨（+25）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（-55）；电石利润80元/吨（-55）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-547元/吨（+74）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-505元/吨（+11）；PVC出口利润7.4美元/吨（+2.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.5万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存36.3万吨（-1.5）；PVC电石法开工率75.71%（+2.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.71%（-1.19%）；PVC开工率74.60%（+1.49%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量54.1万吨（-6.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2367元/吨（-4）；山东32%液碱基差383元/吨（+4）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价880元/吨（+0）；山东50%液 ...