Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side shows a pattern of reduced supply with a false increase. The supply side shrinks slightly due to the decrease in the operating rate of refineries in South China. The inventory changes little month - on - month, and the demand shows characteristics of the rainy season. The biggest variable is the geopolitical premium caused by the Israel - Iran conflict. The short - term asphalt futures price fluctuates following the cost - end crude oil. In the short term (from mid - late June to early August), it is necessary to see if the decline in demand growth due to the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits. In the long - term, there is still an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, and the peak season performance is still worth looking forward to [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 27.20%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 58.33% [1] 3.2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy 3.2.1. Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in asphalt prices, for enterprises with long spot exposure, they can short the asphalt futures (bu2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3650 - 3750 [1] 3.2.2. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to order situations, for those with short spot exposure, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3300 - 3400 [1] 3.3. Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors 3.3.1. Core Contradictions - The supply - demand side has a complex situation, and the biggest variable is the Israel - Iran conflict. The short - term price follows crude oil, and it is necessary to observe the matching of supply and demand growth in the short and long terms [2] 3.3.2. Bullish Factors - The asphalt's own inventory structure is good; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the increase in crude oil prices significantly raises the cost [2][4] 3.3.3. Bearish Factors - The cracking remains at a high level; after the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries recovers; the rainy season in the South drags down demand; the easing of the Middle East situation leads to the return of the war premium on crude oil [4] 3.4. Asphalt Price and Basis Data 3.4.1. Spot Price - On June 27, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3805 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week); the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week); the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week); the South China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2] 3.4.2. Basis - On June 27, 2025, the Shandong spot 09 basis was 244 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 191 yuan/ton week - on - week); the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 219 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 196 yuan/ton week - on - week); the North China spot 09 basis was 189 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 136 yuan/ton week - on - week); the South China spot 09 basis was 89 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, up 166 yuan/ton week - on - week) [5] 3.4.3. Cracking - On June 27, 2025, the cracking of Shandong spot to Brent was 181.3768 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day, up 67.1332 yuan/barrel week - on - week); the cracking of the futures main contract to Brent was 139.0944 yuan/barrel (down 0.3466 yuan/barrel from the previous day, up 34.0351 yuan/barrel week - on - week) [5] 3.5. Seasonal Charts - There are seasonal charts of asphalt 09 contract basis in Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast regions; asphalt futures month - spreads (06 - 09 and 09 - 12); domestic asphalt refinery total inventory rate (Baichuan sample); asphalt warehouse and factory - warehouse receipt quantities; and domestic asphalt social inventory rate (Baichuan sample) [6][11][13]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年6月24日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 供需端呈现供减虚增格局，供给端因华南炼厂开工率减低而小幅收缩，库存端环比变动不大，需求体现出一 定的梅雨季节特征。最大的变量依然是伊以冲突引起的地缘溢价，油价大幅上涨沥青裂解走弱，基差走弱， 盘面大幅修复贴水，绝对价格高位。市场理解伊朗报复的程度有限，短期沥青盘面波动完全跟随成本端原油 的走势，目前尚难给出冲突结束的结论，后续需持续关注双方军事进展。短期（6月中下旬-8月初）看进入雨 季造成的需求增速下滑能否匹配高利润下产量增速的抬升，目前初步有一些苗头，短期建议月差正套离场； 中长期看十四五最后一年带来的需求端的增量预期仍然存在，旺季表现仍然可期 。 【利多解读】 1、沥青自身库存结构良好； 2、需求季节性旺季； 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The year-on-year growth rate of asphalt production is 22.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of demand is 27.5%. The inventory maintains a slight reduction, with overall pressure being low and the inventory structure being good. Both factory and social inventories have decreased. The basis has strengthened month-on-month, the spot price has strengthened while the futures price has remained flat, and the real - world situation provides fair support. However, the futures market shows concerns about rainy - season demand. The cracking spread on the futures has weakened month - on - month, with crude oil performing strongly and the profit of downstream products being passively weakened. The overall valuation is still at a high level. In the short term (from mid - late June to early August), it remains to be seen whether the decline in demand growth caused by the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits, and the demand side is under pressure in the short term. In the long - term, there is still an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.15%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 17.58% [1]. 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short asphalt futures according to the enterprise's inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs | bu2509 | Sell | 25% | 3500 - 3600 | | Procurement Management | Short | To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, buy asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance | bu2509 | Buy | 50% | 3300 - 3400 | [1] 3.3 Price and Basis Data of Asphalt on June 9, 2025 | Region | Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | 09 Contract Basis (yuan/ton) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | Spot to Brent Cracking (yuan/barrel) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong | 3695 | 0 | 70 | 207 | - 10 | - 4 | 161.34 | 0.3399 | - 15.9129 | | Yangtze River Delta | 3650 | 0 | 70 | 162 | - 10 | - 4 | - | - | - | | North China | 3745 | 85 | 100 | 257 | 75 | 26 | - | - | - | | South China | 3410 | 0 | 30 | - 78 | - 10 | - 44 | - | - | - | [3] 3.4利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: The asphalt's own inventory structure is good, and there is a seasonal peak in demand [5]. - **利空 Factors**: The cracking spread remains at a high level; after the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered; the plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand, and the upward driving force of the basis is insufficient [2][3].

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年6月6日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3600 | 15.97% | 17.58% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3500-3600 | | | 格下跌 | | 空沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨而 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The monthly price range forecast for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.35% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.65% [1] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 25% of the bu2509 contract in the 3500 - 3600 range to lock in profits [1] - For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy 50% of the bu2509 contract in the 3300 - 3400 range to lock in procurement costs [1] - Weekly asphalt production increased by about 5.2%, while demand in South and East China decreased by 7.5% due to rainfall, leading to an increase in the inventory - to - consumption ratio this week [2] - The basis in the North China market strengthened, and the cracking spread on the futures market continued to strengthen, with the overall valuation remaining high [2] - In the short term, it is necessary to see if the slowdown in demand growth during the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits. In the long - term, there is an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2] - After the callback, it is still advisable to maintain a long - position - based configuration [2] Group 2: Price and Spread Data Spot Price - The Shandong spot price on June 3, 2025, was 3645 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot price was 3645 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot price was 3365 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 75 yuan/ton [5] Basis - The Shandong spot 09 basis on June 3, 2025, was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 144 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot 09 basis was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 44 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot 09 basis was - 91 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 57 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [5] Cracking Spread - The Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent on June 3, 2025, was 162.036 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 15.2169 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 7.6459 yuan/barrel [8] - The futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 129.4578 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 18.6826 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 21.3357 yuan/barrel [8] Group 3: Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - The inventory structure of asphalt is good [7] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [7] - The basis is strengthening [7] Bearish Factors - The cracking spread remains at a high level [4] - After the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered [7] - The plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand [7]