南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年8月29日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2512 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The supply side of asphalt remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, resulting in a failure to effectively release demand. The short - term peak season shows no over - expected performance, and the overall fundamentals are weakening month - on - month. [2] - In the medium and long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, and the capital situation will be alleviated with the accelerated debt resolution of local governments in 2025. However, the peak season is not as prosperous as expected. [2] - The cost - side supply tightness expectation of asphalt is relieved due to the expected relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and OPEC's production increase. [2] 3. Content Summaries by Related Aspects a. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast of the asphalt main contract for the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95%. [1] b. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short sell the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3650 - 3750. [1] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400. [1] c. Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On August 18, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3580 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/day and 100 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3680 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3520 yuan/ton (unchanged). [7] - **Basis and Crack Spreads**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 81 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/day and 87 yuan/week), and the Shandong spot crack spread to Brent was 150.0877 yuan/barrel (down 6.8268 yuan/day and 7.7282 yuan/week). The futures main contract crack spread to Brent was 131.5458 yuan/barrel (up 2.1841 yuan/day and 8.2143 yuan/week). [7] d. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factories' warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low - level start - up with the expectation of catch - up construction in the South, and strong expectation of capacity reduction due to the "anti - involution" atmosphere. [6] - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the drag on demand by the short - term plum rain season in the South, slow destocking of social warehouses and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong. [6]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年8月6日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨而 ...

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月31日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 1、沥青厂库压力小，厂家挺价具备基础； 2、需求季节性旺季； 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply side of asphalt has slightly declined due to the shutdown of some refineries and the conversion to producing residual oil. In terms of inventory structure, factory warehouses are reducing inventory while social warehouses are slow in destocking. Speculative demand is weakening, and traders are actively reducing inventory. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to the expected increase in the operating rate, but the cracking spread remains high. Currently, the demand side is still in the off - season due to rainfall, and the overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. On a single - side basis, the absolute price shows a volatile trend because the cost - end crude oil performs strongly, and the month - spread, basis, and cracking have all weakened to a certain extent. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand side will enter the peak season as the construction conditions improve in the north and south in August. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and the funds are alleviated. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed, so the peak season is still expected. The short - term "anti - involution" has little impact on the asphalt cost side, and follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of specific measures for the asphalt industry chain. There are also rumors of consumption tax pilot reform in an individual refinery in Shandong, and its progress should be monitored [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 8.95% [1] Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about asphalt price drops, for enterprises with long spot exposure, they can short the asphalt futures (bu2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is 3650 - 3750 [1] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to order situations, for those with short spot exposure, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the suggested entry range is 3300 - 3400 [1] Market Data of Asphalt Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: On July 30, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3785 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change), the North China spot price was 3720 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton), and the South China spot price was 3580 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change) [3] - **Spot 09 Basis**: On July 30, 2025, the Shandong spot 09 basis was 166 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 85 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 161 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change), the North China spot 09 basis was 101 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan/ton), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 39 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change) [3][6] - **Cracking Spread**: On July 30, 2025, the Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent was 133.3921 yuan/barrel (a daily increase of 1.7329 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 41.7873 yuan/barrel), and the futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 104.6263 yuan/barrel (no daily change and a weekly decrease of 27.0577 yuan/barrel) [6] Factors Affecting the Asphalt Market - **Positive Factors**: The pressure on asphalt factory warehouses is small, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of rush - work in the south; the "anti - involution" atmosphere is strong, and there is a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3][5] - **Negative Factors**: The arrival of Venezuelan heavy crude oil (Merey) in recent days has increased; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; the destocking of social warehouses has slowed down, and the basis has weakened; the consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 39.16% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short sell the bu2509 asphalt futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a selling ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Contradictions - The asphalt supply - demand situation remains stable. Factory inventories are decreasing, while social inventories are decreasing slowly. Speculative demand is weakening, and traders are actively reducing inventory. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased production rates, and the crack spread remains high. Currently, supply growth exceeds expectations, and demand is in the off - season due to rainfall, causing the overall fundamentals to weaken month - on - month. However, due to the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, the absolute price shows an oscillating trend, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak construction season arrives. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and funds are easing. With the "14th Five - Year Plan" nearing completion, project numbers are guaranteed, and the peak season is still expected. In the short - term, the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity [3] Group 5: Price and Basis Data Spot Prices - On July 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3855 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/day, 45 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3590 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/day, 20 yuan/week) [6] Basis - The Shandong spot 09 basis was 198 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/day, 34 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 123 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/day, 11 yuan/week), the North China spot 09 basis was 93 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/day, 11 yuan/week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 67 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/day, 31 yuan/week) [6][9] Crack Spread - The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 171.0588 yuan/barrel (up 6.0027 yuan/day, 6.6955 yuan/week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 136.7478 yuan/barrel (up 0.2843 yuan/day, 0.8038 yuan/week) [9] Group 6: Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Low pressure on asphalt factory inventories provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices; demand seasonal peak season; low production starts with expectations of catch - up construction in the South; strong atmosphere of eliminating backward production capacity [8] Bearish Factors - After the end of maintenance, production at some refineries resumes; short - term demand is dragged down by the plum - rain season in the South; slow reduction of social inventories and weakening basis [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand structure of asphalt shows a weakening trend, with weekly production increasing by 28% year - on - year and demand growing by 10% year - on - year. The inventory structure features factory inventory accumulation and social inventory depletion, and speculative demand is weakening. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased开工率, while the crack spread remains high. In the short term, the supply increase exceeds expectations, and demand is in the off - season due to rainfall. The overall fundamentals are weakening month - on - month, and the absolute price shows a volatile trend due to the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side. In the long - term, demand is expected to pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the goods circulation situation and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.07% and a historical percentile of 38.62% over 3 years [1] 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton [1] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Asphalt Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: On July 18, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3820 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (unchanged, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 165 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 125 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot 09 basis was 95 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 55 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 59 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] 3.4 Asphalt Crack Spread Data - On July 18, 2025, the Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 161.4216 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day, up 7.7092 yuan/barrel week - on - week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 132.829 yuan/barrel (up 4.6788 yuan/ton day - on - day, up 14.4674 yuan/ton week - on - week) [7] 3.5 Factors Affecting Asphalt Market - **Positive Factors**: Low factory inventory pressure provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices; demand seasonal peak season; low开工率 and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South [3][6] - **Negative Factors**: After the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries recovers; the short - term plum rain season in the South drags down demand; the slowdown of social inventory depletion and the weakening of the basis [6]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月14日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.98% | 40.88% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of asphalt remains resilient. This week, production decreased slightly month - on - month, and demand slowed down due to rainfall in the north. Overall inventory depletion is not obvious, with social inventory changing little. The asphalt basis fluctuates, and the crack spread is still in a high range. Looking ahead, supply is seasonally recovering but limited by poor refined oil profits. Demand is expected to enter a peak season in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the significant cost fluctuations of crude oil after OPEC's production increase and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.83% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.99% [2]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply is seasonally recovering but limited by poor refined oil profits. Demand will enter a peak season in August, with improved construction conditions in the north and south, accelerated debt resolution by local governments in 2025, eased funds, and a certain guarantee of project quantity during the "14th Five - Year Plan" closing stage [3]. 3.4. Bullish Factors - Asphalt plants have little inventory pressure, providing a basis for price support; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is low, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south [8]. 3.5. Bearish Factors - After the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries has recovered; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; OPEC's continued production increase has dragged down oil prices [5][6]. 3.6. Price and Basis Data - On July 9, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3835 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan day - on - day and 20 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3830 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 50 yuan week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3620 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan day - on - day and up 20 yuan week - on - week) [6]. - The Shandong spot 09 basis was 212 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan day - on - day and 32 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 207 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan day - on - day and 2 yuan week - on - week), the North China spot 09 basis was 127 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan day - on - day and 52 yuan week - on - week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 3 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan day - on - day and 32 yuan week - on - week) [6]. - The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent was 161.7242 yuan/barrel (up 1.7329 yuan day - on - day and down 4.0216 yuan week - on - week) [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 1, 2025 - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0019531) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of asphalt remain resilient. This week, the production was 547,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and the demand was 581,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. The factory inventory decreased significantly, while the social inventory changed little. Affected by the decline in the risk premium of crude oil, the asphalt basis strengthened, and the crack spread also strengthened, still remaining in a high range. Looking forward, the overall supply is in the seasonal resumption of production, but limited by the poor profit of refined oil products and the limited profitability of local refineries, there is little room for significant improvement. From August, the construction conditions in the north and south are good, and the overall construction enters the peak season. The debt resolution progress of local governments in 2025 has accelerated, and the funds have been alleviated. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed to a certain extent, and the peak season is still expected [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3,400 - 3,750 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.89%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 52.15% [2] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in asphalt prices, for enterprises with long spot positions, to prevent inventory losses, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3,650 - 3,750 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to orders, for those with short spot positions, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3,300 - 3,400 yuan/ton [2] Core Contradictions - Supply and demand are resilient. This week, production increased by 20.5% year - on - year, demand increased by 19% year - on - year, and sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased significantly, and social inventory changed little. The basis and crack spread strengthened but remained in a high range. Supply is in seasonal resumption, but limited by refined oil profit and local refinery profitability. Demand will enter the peak season in August, with improved funds and guaranteed project numbers [3] 利多解读 - Not provided in the report 利空解读 - Short - term demand is dragged down by the plum rain season in the south; the easing of the Middle East situation leads to the regression of the war premium of crude oil [5] Price and Basis Crack Spread - The daily and weekly changes in spot prices in different regions (Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, South China) are different. The basis and crack spread of different regions also show different daily and weekly changes [6] Seasonal Charts - Include asphalt 09 contract basis seasonality in different regions (Yangtze River Delta, Northeast, Shandong, North China), asphalt futures month - to - month spreads (06 - 09, 09 - 12) seasonality, and the seasonality of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates [9][14][15] Other Data - Include the total number of combined orders and the total number of warehouse receipts of asphalt [19]