Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The asphalt market's peak season shows no better - than - expected performance. With increasing short - term external disturbances, it is recommended to adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Supply: Refinery operations are stable, and overall asphalt supply has little change. Raw material shortages and heavy oil tightness remain unsolved, keeping the asphalt crack spread high [3]. - Demand: Due to the National Day holiday, the overall spot market trading was dull, mainly consuming social inventory. The short - term peak season did not exceed expectations. Future rainfall in the South will continue to affect demand, making the peak season less prosperous [3]. - Inventory: The inventory structure has improved. Factory inventories are stable with low pressure, and social inventories are being depleted. Pre - holiday stockpiling and the start of rigid demand have led to overall inventory reduction [3]. - Cost: As OPEC continues to increase production, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline. The recent rapid drop in crude oil prices is due to the intensification of Sino - US tariffs and weak risk - asset sentiment [3]. - Price: The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. The Shandong consumption tax reform pilot has not been further expanded [3]. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.52% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.22% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 25%, and sell call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular procurement inventories aiming to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50%, and sell put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. Price Data - **Spot Prices**: On October 17, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 110 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 yuan from the previous week; the North China spot price was 3410 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and 150 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - **Base and Crack Spreads**: The Shandong spot 12 - contract base was 214 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day and 32 yuan from the previous week; the Shandong spot's crack spread against Brent was 152.8371 yuan/barrel, down 6.9315 yuan from the previous day and 8.5358 yuan from the previous week; the main futures contract's crack spread against Brent was 110.3815 yuan/barrel, down 24.9535 yuan from the previous day and 22.9187 yuan from the previous week [6]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The anti - involution atmosphere and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's re - emphasis on抵制无序价格战 [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The escalation of Sino - US tariffs, OPEC +'s continued production increase, and the increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in Shandong [3][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about potential US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, the peak season has no unexpected performance, but after the crude oil stabilizes, consider a long - position allocation. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be only one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year as the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season after the negative factors of crude oil are digested [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 17.18%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 24.55% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories, to prevent losses from inventory price drops, they can short 25% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 call options at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs and lock in the selling price if the price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, they can buy 50% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 put options at 25 - 35 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure is improving, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The crack spread remains high due to geopolitical concerns. In the short - term, the peak season is affected by weather, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, demand is expected to improve, and there may be one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region is the price trough due to restrictions on crude oil quotas and consumption tax [3]. 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - **Positive Factors**: Low factory inventory pressure, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Increased arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil, short - term demand drag from the rainy season in the South, slower social inventory reduction and weakening basis, and potential increase in operating rates due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3520 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3660 yuan/ton, and 3490 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract increased by 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot and the futures main contract against Brent crude oil decreased compared to the previous week [8]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - The report presents the seasonal data of the 09 - contract basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast China, as well as the seasonal data of the 06 - 09 and 09 - 12 futures month - spreads [9][10][11]. 3.8 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Data - The report shows the seasonal data of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates, as well as the total warehouse receipt quantities of asphalt in warehouses and factories [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and persistent funding shortages, resulting in the short - term peak season not exceeding expectations. The inventory structure has improved with factory and social inventories declining. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, southern rainfall will continue to be high, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing as OPEC increases production. In the medium - to - long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in autumn, and there may be only one last chance for asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. After the short - term stabilization of crude oil, a long - position allocation can be attempted [3]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.26% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.93% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3530 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3650 yuan/ton, and 3500 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract on September 12, 2025, had daily changes of 17 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 142.4603 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 1.7328 yuan/barrel; the crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent was 114.3876 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 16.4623 yuan/barrel [8]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in the short - term, the drag on demand from the southern rainy season, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in operating rates due to consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows no better - than - expected performance during the peak season. In the short term, it mainly follows cost fluctuations. The supply side remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, with the overall fundamentals weakening month - on - month. In the medium - to - long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, but there will still be a lot of rainfall in stages. The reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not been further expanded, so South China remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past three years [1]. - As of August 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3510 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton from a week ago), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton from a week ago), the North China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, unchanged from a week ago), and the South China spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton from a week ago) [7]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short sell the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 25% in the range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot positions can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply side: Stable [2]. - Demand side: Affected by rainfall and capital shortages, demand cannot be effectively released, with weak performance during the peak season. However, it is expected to improve in the medium - to - long term as construction conditions get better in autumn [2]. - Cost side: After the meeting between US and Russian leaders and OPEC's production increase, the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost has been alleviated [2]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors: Small pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low start - up rate with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of over - capacity reduction [6]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the short - term drag on demand by the rainy season in the South, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate driven by the consumption tax reform in Shandong [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The supply side of asphalt remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, resulting in a failure to effectively release demand. The short - term peak season shows no over - expected performance, and the overall fundamentals are weakening month - on - month. [2] - In the medium and long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, and the capital situation will be alleviated with the accelerated debt resolution of local governments in 2025. However, the peak season is not as prosperous as expected. [2] - The cost - side supply tightness expectation of asphalt is relieved due to the expected relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and OPEC's production increase. [2] 3. Content Summaries by Related Aspects a. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast of the asphalt main contract for the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95%. [1] b. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short sell the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3650 - 3750. [1] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400. [1] c. Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On August 18, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3580 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/day and 100 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3680 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3520 yuan/ton (unchanged). [7] - **Basis and Crack Spreads**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 81 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/day and 87 yuan/week), and the Shandong spot crack spread to Brent was 150.0877 yuan/barrel (down 6.8268 yuan/day and 7.7282 yuan/week). The futures main contract crack spread to Brent was 131.5458 yuan/barrel (up 2.1841 yuan/day and 8.2143 yuan/week). [7] d. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factories' warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low - level start - up with the expectation of catch - up construction in the South, and strong expectation of capacity reduction due to the "anti - involution" atmosphere. [6] - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the drag on demand by the short - term plum rain season in the South, slow destocking of social warehouses and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong. [6]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年8月6日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨而 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The oil - chemical sector stood out today as other sectors weakened, due to crude oil rebound and asphalt fundamentals. The price of crude oil rebounded as the market refocused on sanctions against Russian oil and it was at the end of the peak - demand season. The so - called "anti - involution" had no obvious positive impact on domestic refineries, resulting in the reversal of the premium, which couldn't be reflected in asphalt. In the asphalt supply side, production decreased slightly as some refineries shut down or switched to producing residual oil. In terms of inventory, factory inventories decreased while social inventories decreased slowly. Speculative demand weakened, and traders started to reduce their inventories actively. The basis in Shandong and East China weakened due to the expected increase in the operating rate, and the crack spread remained high. Currently, the demand side is still in the off - season affected by rainfall, and the overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the short term, the absolute price is in a volatile trend because of the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, as construction conditions improve in the north and south in August, the construction will enter the peak season. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and the funds situation has improved. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed, so the peak season is still worth looking forward to. The short - term "anti - involution" has little impact on the cost side of asphalt, and attention should be paid to the progress of specific measures for the asphalt industry chain. There are also rumors about the consumption tax pilot reform in an individual refinery in Shandong, and its progress should be monitored [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past 3 years [1] 2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry price range is 3650 - 3750 [1] - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular procurement inventories that want to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the suggested entry price range is 3300 - 3400 [1] 3. Asphalt Price and Basis Crack Spread - 09 Contract - **Spot Prices**: On July 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3785 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day and the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan from the previous day and the week), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan from the previous day and 10 yuan from the week) [1][5][8] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 121 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the North China spot 09 basis was 71 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 59 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week) [8] - **Crack Spread**: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 131.7688 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day and down 28.037 yuan from the week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 109.9345 yuan/barrel (up 1.5596 yuan from the previous day and down 18.1595 yuan from the week) [8] 4. Factors Affecting Asphalt Price Bullish Factors - Asphalt factory inventories are under little pressure, providing a basis for manufacturers to hold up prices [3] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [3] - The operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south [3] - The "anti - involution" atmosphere has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3] Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil (Merey) in China has increased [7] - The short - term demand in the south is dragged down by the plum - rain season [7] - The reduction of social inventories has slowed down, and the basis has weakened [7] - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply side of asphalt has slightly declined due to the shutdown of some refineries and the conversion to producing residual oil. In terms of inventory structure, factory warehouses are reducing inventory while social warehouses are slow in destocking. Speculative demand is weakening, and traders are actively reducing inventory. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to the expected increase in the operating rate, but the cracking spread remains high. Currently, the demand side is still in the off - season due to rainfall, and the overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. On a single - side basis, the absolute price shows a volatile trend because the cost - end crude oil performs strongly, and the month - spread, basis, and cracking have all weakened to a certain extent. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand side will enter the peak season as the construction conditions improve in the north and south in August. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and the funds are alleviated. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed, so the peak season is still expected. The short - term "anti - involution" has little impact on the asphalt cost side, and follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of specific measures for the asphalt industry chain. There are also rumors of consumption tax pilot reform in an individual refinery in Shandong, and its progress should be monitored [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 8.95% [1] Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about asphalt price drops, for enterprises with long spot exposure, they can short the asphalt futures (bu2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is 3650 - 3750 [1] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to order situations, for those with short spot exposure, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the suggested entry range is 3300 - 3400 [1] Market Data of Asphalt Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: On July 30, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3785 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change), the North China spot price was 3720 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton), and the South China spot price was 3580 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change) [3] - **Spot 09 Basis**: On July 30, 2025, the Shandong spot 09 basis was 166 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 85 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 161 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change), the North China spot 09 basis was 101 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan/ton), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 39 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change) [3][6] - **Cracking Spread**: On July 30, 2025, the Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent was 133.3921 yuan/barrel (a daily increase of 1.7329 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 41.7873 yuan/barrel), and the futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 104.6263 yuan/barrel (no daily change and a weekly decrease of 27.0577 yuan/barrel) [6] Factors Affecting the Asphalt Market - **Positive Factors**: The pressure on asphalt factory warehouses is small, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of rush - work in the south; the "anti - involution" atmosphere is strong, and there is a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3][5] - **Negative Factors**: The arrival of Venezuelan heavy crude oil (Merey) in recent days has increased; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; the destocking of social warehouses has slowed down, and the basis has weakened; the consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 39.16% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short sell the bu2509 asphalt futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a selling ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Contradictions - The asphalt supply - demand situation remains stable. Factory inventories are decreasing, while social inventories are decreasing slowly. Speculative demand is weakening, and traders are actively reducing inventory. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased production rates, and the crack spread remains high. Currently, supply growth exceeds expectations, and demand is in the off - season due to rainfall, causing the overall fundamentals to weaken month - on - month. However, due to the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, the absolute price shows an oscillating trend, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak construction season arrives. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and funds are easing. With the "14th Five - Year Plan" nearing completion, project numbers are guaranteed, and the peak season is still expected. In the short - term, the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity [3] Group 5: Price and Basis Data Spot Prices - On July 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3855 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/day, 45 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3590 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/day, 20 yuan/week) [6] Basis - The Shandong spot 09 basis was 198 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/day, 34 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 123 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/day, 11 yuan/week), the North China spot 09 basis was 93 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/day, 11 yuan/week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 67 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/day, 31 yuan/week) [6][9] Crack Spread - The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 171.0588 yuan/barrel (up 6.0027 yuan/day, 6.6955 yuan/week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 136.7478 yuan/barrel (up 0.2843 yuan/day, 0.8038 yuan/week) [9] Group 6: Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Low pressure on asphalt factory inventories provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices; demand seasonal peak season; low production starts with expectations of catch - up construction in the South; strong atmosphere of eliminating backward production capacity [8] Bearish Factors - After the end of maintenance, production at some refineries resumes; short - term demand is dragged down by the plum - rain season in the South; slow reduction of social inventories and weakening basis [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand structure of asphalt shows a weakening trend, with weekly production increasing by 28% year - on - year and demand growing by 10% year - on - year. The inventory structure features factory inventory accumulation and social inventory depletion, and speculative demand is weakening. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased开工率, while the crack spread remains high. In the short term, the supply increase exceeds expectations, and demand is in the off - season due to rainfall. The overall fundamentals are weakening month - on - month, and the absolute price shows a volatile trend due to the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side. In the long - term, demand is expected to pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the goods circulation situation and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.07% and a historical percentile of 38.62% over 3 years [1] 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton [1] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Asphalt Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: On July 18, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3820 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (unchanged, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 165 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 125 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot 09 basis was 95 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 55 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 59 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] 3.4 Asphalt Crack Spread Data - On July 18, 2025, the Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 161.4216 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day, up 7.7092 yuan/barrel week - on - week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 132.829 yuan/barrel (up 4.6788 yuan/ton day - on - day, up 14.4674 yuan/ton week - on - week) [7] 3.5 Factors Affecting Asphalt Market - **Positive Factors**: Low factory inventory pressure provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices; demand seasonal peak season; low开工率 and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South [3][6] - **Negative Factors**: After the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries recovers; the short - term plum rain season in the South drags down demand; the slowdown of social inventory depletion and the weakening of the basis [6]