Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was affected by news such as the US increasing military threats against Venezuela and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs after the China - US leaders' meeting, causing short - term increases in crude oil and asphalt prices. Concerns about asphalt raw material supply emerged due to Venezuela's importance as an oil source for Chinese asphalt refineries. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments were not substantially affected according to Kpler data. Demand has entered the off - season, winter storage is unpromising, and some Shandong refineries have复产 expectations. The price is expected to move downward, and short - term traders should pay attention to the rhythm and take profits in time [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.68% [2]. 3.2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2]. 3.3. Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan from the previous day and 180 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta was 3390 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan and 80 yuan week - on - week), the North China was 3100 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan and 150 yuan week - on - week), and the South China was 3350 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan and 100 yuan week - on - week) [9]. - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 2 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan and 43 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta was 338 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan and up 57 yuan week - on - week), the North China was 48 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan and 13 yuan week - on - week), and the South China was 298 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan and 37 yuan week - on - week) [9]. - **Crack Spread**: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 75.7456 yuan/barrel (down 8.6645 yuan and 24.0369 yuan week - on - week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 75.3991 yuan/barrel (down 10.5705 yuan and 26.8094 yuan week - on - week) [9]. 3.4. Seasonal Data - The report also includes seasonal charts of asphalt 12 - contract basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast regions, asphalt futures month - spreads (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt plant - warehouse total inventory rate, and asphalt warehouse and plant - warehouse receipt quantities [10][15][20].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.08% and a historical percentile of 24.70% over the past 3 years [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2] Group 4: Core Views - Due to news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and US sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen recently. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments are not affected. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand in the spot market remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage remains unsolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. Recently, crude oil has rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand. In the long - term, northern demand will end as the temperature drops, while southern demand may increase after the rain decreases. Currently, the peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Due to recent external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling after the futures price reaches the resistance level. It is necessary to pay attention to OPEC's latest meeting resolution and whether the Middle East OSP quote will be lowered as expected [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela [6] - Refineries in Shandong (Shengxing and Lanqiao) started maintenance and stopped asphalt production [6] - The tariff confrontation between China and the US is expected to ease [6] - The US cancelled the "Trump - Putin meeting" and imposed more sanctions on Russia, including blacklisting two major Russian oil giants. Ukraine attacked Russian energy facilities, and the US purchased strategic oil reserves [7] Group 6: Bearish Factors - OPEC continued to increase production [7] Group 7: Price and Basis Data Spot Price - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/day and 120 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/day and 90 yuan/week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] Basis - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/day and 71 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot 12 - contract basis was 216 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 49 yuan/week; the North China spot 12 - contract basis was - 4 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/day and 41 yuan/week; the South China spot 12 - contract basis was 196 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 99 yuan/week [8] Cracking Spread - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent was 104.2694 yuan/barrel, down 6.9316 yuan/day and 13.607 yuan/week; the futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 106.6955 yuan/barrel, down 1.7328 yuan/day and 2.3432 yuan/week [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Affected by news that the US may launch a military strike on Venezuela, both crude oil and asphalt prices have risen recently. As Venezuelan crude oil accounts for over 20% of China's asphalt refineries' oil use, the market is worried about supply disruptions. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments have not been substantially affected [3]. - Refinery operations are stable, and overall asphalt supply has changed little. Due to the National Day holiday, demand is weak, with the market mainly consuming social inventories. The short - term peak season has not exceeded expectations. Inventory structure has improved, with stable and low - pressure refinery inventories and declining social inventories [3]. - Issues such as raw material shortages and tight heavy oil supplies have not been substantially alleviated, so the asphalt crack spread remains high. In the future, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline as OPEC continues to increase production [3]. - The short - term peak season for asphalt has not exceeded expectations. With increased external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term or look for pressure levels to short after the price rises [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 25.49% [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the inventory can be hedged by shorting the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at an entry range of 3650 - 3750. Additionally, 20% of the inventory can be hedged by selling the bu2512C3500 call option at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, 50% of the inventory can be hedged by buying the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at an entry range of 3300 - 3400. Also, 20% of the inventory can be hedged by selling the bu2512C3500 put option at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3. Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Asphalt refinery inventory pressure is low, providing a basis for price support from manufacturers [6]. - In Shandong, Shengxing has resumed asphalt production, while Qicheng and Fengli have switched to producing residual oil. In the East China region, some major refineries have reduced production [6]. - There is an anti - cut - throat competition atmosphere, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized resisting disorderly price wars [6]. - There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela [7]. Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in China has increased [12]. - OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November [12]. - The escalation of US - China tariffs has weakened the overall sentiment in the risk market [12]. 4. Price and Basis Data - On October 24, 2025, the spot prices of asphalt in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3340 yuan/ton, 3470 yuan/ton, 3340 yuan/ton, and 3400 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of - 40 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, - 70 yuan/ton, and - 40 yuan/ton [8]. - The basis of Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China spot for the 12 - contract asphalt on October 24, 2025, was 25 yuan/ton, 155 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 85 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1 and weekly changes of - 155 yuan/ton, - 145 yuan/ton, - 185 yuan/ton, and - 155 yuan/ton [8]. - The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 113.8054 yuan/barrel, with a weekly change of - 35.9912 yuan/barrel. The crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent crude oil was 106.7006 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of 3.8123 yuan/barrel and a weekly change of - 0.6403 yuan/barrel [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The asphalt market's peak season shows no better - than - expected performance. With increasing short - term external disturbances, it is recommended to adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Supply: Refinery operations are stable, and overall asphalt supply has little change. Raw material shortages and heavy oil tightness remain unsolved, keeping the asphalt crack spread high [3]. - Demand: Due to the National Day holiday, the overall spot market trading was dull, mainly consuming social inventory. The short - term peak season did not exceed expectations. Future rainfall in the South will continue to affect demand, making the peak season less prosperous [3]. - Inventory: The inventory structure has improved. Factory inventories are stable with low pressure, and social inventories are being depleted. Pre - holiday stockpiling and the start of rigid demand have led to overall inventory reduction [3]. - Cost: As OPEC continues to increase production, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline. The recent rapid drop in crude oil prices is due to the intensification of Sino - US tariffs and weak risk - asset sentiment [3]. - Price: The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. The Shandong consumption tax reform pilot has not been further expanded [3]. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.52% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.22% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 25%, and sell call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular procurement inventories aiming to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50%, and sell put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan with a hedging ratio of 20% [2]. Price Data - **Spot Prices**: On October 17, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day and 110 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 yuan from the previous week; the North China spot price was 3410 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and 150 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - **Base and Crack Spreads**: The Shandong spot 12 - contract base was 214 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day and 32 yuan from the previous week; the Shandong spot's crack spread against Brent was 152.8371 yuan/barrel, down 6.9315 yuan from the previous day and 8.5358 yuan from the previous week; the main futures contract's crack spread against Brent was 110.3815 yuan/barrel, down 24.9535 yuan from the previous day and 22.9187 yuan from the previous week [6]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The anti - involution atmosphere and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's re - emphasis on抵制无序价格战 [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The escalation of Sino - US tariffs, OPEC +'s continued production increase, and the increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in Shandong [3][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about potential US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, the peak season has no unexpected performance, but after the crude oil stabilizes, consider a long - position allocation. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be only one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year as the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season after the negative factors of crude oil are digested [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 17.18%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 24.55% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories, to prevent losses from inventory price drops, they can short 25% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 call options at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs and lock in the selling price if the price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, they can buy 50% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 put options at 25 - 35 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure is improving, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The crack spread remains high due to geopolitical concerns. In the short - term, the peak season is affected by weather, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, demand is expected to improve, and there may be one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region is the price trough due to restrictions on crude oil quotas and consumption tax [3]. 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - **Positive Factors**: Low factory inventory pressure, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Increased arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil, short - term demand drag from the rainy season in the South, slower social inventory reduction and weakening basis, and potential increase in operating rates due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3520 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3660 yuan/ton, and 3490 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract increased by 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot and the futures main contract against Brent crude oil decreased compared to the previous week [8]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - The report presents the seasonal data of the 09 - contract basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast China, as well as the seasonal data of the 06 - 09 and 09 - 12 futures month - spreads [9][10][11]. 3.8 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Data - The report shows the seasonal data of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates, as well as the total warehouse receipt quantities of asphalt in warehouses and factories [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and persistent funding shortages, resulting in the short - term peak season not exceeding expectations. The inventory structure has improved with factory and social inventories declining. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, southern rainfall will continue to be high, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing as OPEC increases production. In the medium - to - long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in autumn, and there may be only one last chance for asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. After the short - term stabilization of crude oil, a long - position allocation can be attempted [3]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.26% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.93% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3530 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3650 yuan/ton, and 3500 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract on September 12, 2025, had daily changes of 17 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 142.4603 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 1.7328 yuan/barrel; the crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent was 114.3876 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 16.4623 yuan/barrel [8]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in the short - term, the drag on demand from the southern rainy season, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in operating rates due to consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows no better - than - expected performance during the peak season. In the short term, it mainly follows cost fluctuations. The supply side remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, with the overall fundamentals weakening month - on - month. In the medium - to - long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, but there will still be a lot of rainfall in stages. The reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not been further expanded, so South China remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past three years [1]. - As of August 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3510 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton from a week ago), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton from a week ago), the North China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, unchanged from a week ago), and the South China spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton from a week ago) [7]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short sell the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 25% in the range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot positions can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply side: Stable [2]. - Demand side: Affected by rainfall and capital shortages, demand cannot be effectively released, with weak performance during the peak season. However, it is expected to improve in the medium - to - long term as construction conditions get better in autumn [2]. - Cost side: After the meeting between US and Russian leaders and OPEC's production increase, the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost has been alleviated [2]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors: Small pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low start - up rate with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of over - capacity reduction [6]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the short - term drag on demand by the rainy season in the South, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate driven by the consumption tax reform in Shandong [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The supply side of asphalt remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, resulting in a failure to effectively release demand. The short - term peak season shows no over - expected performance, and the overall fundamentals are weakening month - on - month. [2] - In the medium and long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, and the capital situation will be alleviated with the accelerated debt resolution of local governments in 2025. However, the peak season is not as prosperous as expected. [2] - The cost - side supply tightness expectation of asphalt is relieved due to the expected relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and OPEC's production increase. [2] 3. Content Summaries by Related Aspects a. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast of the asphalt main contract for the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95%. [1] b. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short sell the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3650 - 3750. [1] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400. [1] c. Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On August 18, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3580 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/day and 100 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3680 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3520 yuan/ton (unchanged). [7] - **Basis and Crack Spreads**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 81 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/day and 87 yuan/week), and the Shandong spot crack spread to Brent was 150.0877 yuan/barrel (down 6.8268 yuan/day and 7.7282 yuan/week). The futures main contract crack spread to Brent was 131.5458 yuan/barrel (up 2.1841 yuan/day and 8.2143 yuan/week). [7] d. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factories' warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low - level start - up with the expectation of catch - up construction in the South, and strong expectation of capacity reduction due to the "anti - involution" atmosphere. [6] - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the drag on demand by the short - term plum rain season in the South, slow destocking of social warehouses and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong. [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the asphalt supply increases due to the resumption of some refineries in Shandong, while the demand is suppressed by typhoon weather in South and East China, rainfall in North China, and the persistent shortage of funds. The overall fundamentals are weakening, and the absolute price fluctuates due to the cost of crude oil. The monthly spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent [2]. - In the medium - to long - term, as autumn approaches, the construction conditions in the north and south will improve, and the construction will enter the peak season. The debt resolution progress of local governments in 2025 will speed up, and the funds will be alleviated. The peak season is still worth looking forward to [2]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in August 2025 is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95% [1]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short 25% of the bu2509 asphalt futures at the price range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton according to their inventory [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy 50% of the bu2509 asphalt futures at the price range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Market Data | Region | 2025 - 08 - 06 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 08 - 05 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 08 - 04 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 07 - 30 Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (yuan/ton) | Weekly Change (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong Spot | 3750 | 3770 | 3785 | 3785 | - 20 | - 35 | | Yangtze River Delta Spot | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 0 | 0 | | North China Spot | 3660 | 3680 | 3700 | 3720 | - 20 | - 60 | | South China Spot | 3580 | 3580 | 3590 | 3580 | 0 | 0 | | Shandong Spot 09 Basis | 195 | 226 | 212 | 135 | - 31 | 60 | | Yangtze River Delta Spot 09 Basis | 225 | 236 | 207 | 130 | - 11 | 95 | | North China Spot 09 Basis | 105 | 136 | 127 | 70 | - 31 | 35 | | South China Spot 09 Basis | 25 | 36 | 17 | - 70 | - 11 | 95 | | Shandong Spot to Brent Crack (yuan/barrel) | 163.4285 | 166.8943 | 162.4854 | 131.7688 | - 3.4658 | 31.6597 | | Futures Main to Brent Crack (yuan/barrel) | 125.1318 | 127.7311 | 125.7482 | 108.3749 | - 2.5993 | 16.7569 | [5][8] 3.4. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The pressure on asphalt factory warehouses is small, and manufacturers have a basis for price support; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south; the atmosphere of "anti - involution" sets off a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3][7]. - **Negative Factors**: The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in China has increased recently; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; the destocking of social inventory has slowed down, and the basis has weakened; the consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The oil - chemical sector stood out today as other sectors weakened, due to crude oil rebound and asphalt fundamentals. The price of crude oil rebounded as the market refocused on sanctions against Russian oil and it was at the end of the peak - demand season. The so - called "anti - involution" had no obvious positive impact on domestic refineries, resulting in the reversal of the premium, which couldn't be reflected in asphalt. In the asphalt supply side, production decreased slightly as some refineries shut down or switched to producing residual oil. In terms of inventory, factory inventories decreased while social inventories decreased slowly. Speculative demand weakened, and traders started to reduce their inventories actively. The basis in Shandong and East China weakened due to the expected increase in the operating rate, and the crack spread remained high. Currently, the demand side is still in the off - season affected by rainfall, and the overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the short term, the absolute price is in a volatile trend because of the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, as construction conditions improve in the north and south in August, the construction will enter the peak season. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and the funds situation has improved. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed, so the peak season is still worth looking forward to. The short - term "anti - involution" has little impact on the cost side of asphalt, and attention should be paid to the progress of specific measures for the asphalt industry chain. There are also rumors about the consumption tax pilot reform in an individual refinery in Shandong, and its progress should be monitored [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past 3 years [1] 2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry price range is 3650 - 3750 [1] - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular procurement inventories that want to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the suggested entry price range is 3300 - 3400 [1] 3. Asphalt Price and Basis Crack Spread - 09 Contract - **Spot Prices**: On July 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3785 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day and the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan from the previous day and the week), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan from the previous day and 10 yuan from the week) [1][5][8] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 121 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the North China spot 09 basis was 71 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 59 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week) [8] - **Crack Spread**: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 131.7688 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day and down 28.037 yuan from the week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 109.9345 yuan/barrel (up 1.5596 yuan from the previous day and down 18.1595 yuan from the week) [8] 4. Factors Affecting Asphalt Price Bullish Factors - Asphalt factory inventories are under little pressure, providing a basis for manufacturers to hold up prices [3] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [3] - The operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south [3] - The "anti - involution" atmosphere has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3] Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil (Merey) in China has increased [7] - The short - term demand in the south is dragged down by the plum - rain season [7] - The reduction of social inventories has slowed down, and the basis has weakened [7] - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7]