Core Viewpoint - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will increase due to fluctuations in international oil prices, with the adjustment taking effect on July 1 at 24:00 [1] Price Adjustment Details - From July 1, gasoline prices will rise by 235 yuan per ton, while diesel prices will increase by 225 yuan per ton [1] - The average price increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will be 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter, respectively [1] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan [1]

Core Insights - The recent adjustment in domestic refined oil prices is due to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, with gasoline and diesel retail prices rising by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton respectively, effective from June 17 [1][2] - Factors contributing to the rise in international oil prices include improved macro risk appetite from US-China trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and a decrease in US crude oil inventories [1] Price Impact on Consumers - For consumers, the cost of driving will increase, with an additional 10 yuan required to fill a 50L tank of 92 gasoline [2] - For a small private car with a monthly distance of 2000 km and fuel consumption of 8L per 100 km, the fuel cost will rise by approximately 15 yuan before the next price adjustment [2] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 km monthly with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 km will see an increase in fuel costs of around 390 yuan [2] Future Price Expectations - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to keep oil prices strong in the short term, but there are concerns about potential price declines if the situation stabilizes [2] - The new pricing cycle is anticipated to start with a high positive change rate, indicating expectations for further increases in domestic refined oil retail prices, with the next adjustment window set for July 1 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic fuel prices in China is a direct response to the significant rise in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Effective from June 17, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively [1]. - The price adjustments translate to an increase of 0.2 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.21 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2]. Group 2: Impact of International Oil Prices - The international oil prices have seen a significant increase during the pricing cycle from June 3 to June 16, driven by improved macroeconomic sentiment and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [2][3]. - The average international oil price has risen notably, with the potential for further increases if geopolitical tensions escalate, particularly concerning Iran's oil exports [3]. Group 3: Demand Forecast Adjustments - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down to 720,000 barrels per day and 740,000 barrels per day, respectively [4]. - Despite the downward revision, the ongoing geopolitical instability and potential improvements in demand could support higher international oil prices in the near future [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to recent international oil price fluctuations, marking the twelfth adjustment of the year and the fifth increase, indicating a trend of "five increases, five decreases, and two stasis" in fuel price adjustments for the year [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Effective from June 17, 2025, gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - This translates to an increase of 0.20 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.22 yuan per liter for 0 diesel, resulting in an additional cost of approximately 10 yuan for filling a standard 50L private car fuel tank [2]. Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the price adjustment cycle from June 3 to June 16, international oil prices experienced significant increases driven by rising geopolitical risks [3]. - Key factors include escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, the EU's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil, and declining U.S. crude oil inventories and rig counts, which are expected to support higher oil prices [3]. - The NDRC's price monitoring center anticipates that geopolitical risks will continue to be a primary factor supporting international oil prices, with expectations of high-level fluctuations in the near term [3].

21世纪经济报道记者费心懿 上海报道 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，2025年6 月17日24时汽、柴油零售限价分别上调260元/吨、255元/吨，折升价92#汽油、95#汽油、0#柴油分别上 调0.20元、0.22元、0.22元。 本次上调落地之后，对于广大消费者来说，在下一轮调价周期内，居民驾车出行成本将有所增加。 按照油箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92#汽油将多花10元。油耗方面，以月跑2000公里，百 公里油耗在8L的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口开启之前的时间内，消费者用油成本将增加15元左 右。物流行业以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车 的燃油成本将增加390元左右。 本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格持续反弹，零售价上调预期利好市场。另外，计价周期初期，受端午小 长假提振，汽油需求有所提升，节后归来，下游用户补货增加，市场成交向好。柴油方面，受北方地区 夏收夏种影响，局部地区终端需求回暖，加之整体价格偏低，业者入市补货增加。市场整体购销气氛回 暖，汽柴油价格开始反弹。后期，随着节日影响消退， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil retail price is expected to increase for the fourth time this year, influenced by various geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production plans [2] Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of June 2, the reference crude oil change rate is at 1.53%, leading to an expected increase of 65 yuan for gasoline and 60 yuan for diesel, translating to a rise of 0.05 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [2] - After this adjustment, the annual refined oil price changes will reflect "4 increases, 5 decreases, and 2 stasis," with cumulative reductions of 590 yuan/ton for gasoline and 570 yuan/ton for diesel [2] - The new retail prices for 92 and 95 gasoline will be approximately 6.93 yuan/liter and 7.43 yuan/liter, respectively, following the price increase [2] Group 2: Cost Implications - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92 gasoline will increase costs by 2.5 yuan, while a small private car with an 8L/100km fuel consumption will see an increase of about 4 yuan before the next price adjustment [3] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 km with a fuel consumption of 38L/100km will incur an additional fuel cost of approximately 89 yuan before the next price adjustment [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that despite OPEC+ maintaining significant production increases in June and July, the traditional peak season for fuel consumption in the U.S. and uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran situations will provide overall support for international oil prices [3] - The next price adjustment window is scheduled to open on June 17, 2025, at 24:00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in domestic fuel prices in China are a direct response to fluctuations in international oil prices, which are influenced by various geopolitical and market factors [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from June 3, 2025, the prices of gasoline and diesel will increase by 65 yuan and 60 yuan per ton, respectively [1]. - This price increase will raise costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated additional cost of approximately 2.5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank in a standard private vehicle and an increase of 2 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven by a fully loaded 50-ton logistics vehicle [1]. Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The "OPEC+" group, consisting of eight oil-producing countries, has decided to increase production by an average of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, maintaining the same production increase as in May and June [2]. - The decision to adjust production is based on a stable market outlook and low oil inventories, with plans for flexible adjustments to maintain market stability [2]. - Despite the planned increase in production, the onset of the traditional U.S. fuel consumption season and uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are expected to provide support for international oil prices, indicating a high probability of further increases in domestic fuel prices in the next pricing cycle [2].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in retail fuel prices, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 65 yuan and 60 yuan respectively, effective from June 3, 2025, indicating the fourth price adjustment in the domestic refined oil market [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The retail prices for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel will increase by 0.05 yuan per liter [1] - The increase in fuel prices is relatively small, with many regions still experiencing gasoline prices around 6 yuan per liter, leading to limited cost increases for consumers [1] - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost an additional 2.5 yuan, while a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 km will see an increase of about 4 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend due to factors such as the US-China trade war, geopolitical issues, and OPEC+ plans for increased production [1] - Domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale prices have been fluctuating, with a recent tightening in supply leading to a strong upward pressure on prices in certain regions [2] - Analysts predict that despite the limited increase in retail prices, there may still be room for further increases in wholesale prices in the upcoming sales cycle [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will increase due to fluctuations in international oil prices, with specific adjustments taking effect on June 3rd at 24:00 [1][3]. Price Adjustment Details - From June 3rd, the price of gasoline will increase by 65 yuan per ton, while diesel will rise by 60 yuan per ton. On average, the price per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel will increase by 0.05 yuan [1]. - Filling a 50L tank with 92 gasoline will cost an additional 2.5 yuan [1]. Historical Context - Since 2025, there have been five price reductions for refined oil retail limits, and 92 gasoline is expected to return to the "6 yuan era" for the first time since the end of 2021 [3]. Market Dynamics - The international oil price is experiencing a mixed trend due to various factors. Concerns over oversupply and short-selling by international capital have contributed to price declines, while geopolitical risks and seasonal demand have supported price increases [3]. - The "OPEC+" decision to accelerate production in July has shifted market expectations, intensifying concerns about oversupply [3]. - Seasonal factors, such as the summer driving season in Europe and the U.S., are contributing to a rebound in refined oil consumption demand, which supports higher international oil prices [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that international oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with potential for increased volatility due to frequent adjustments in U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical instability [3].

智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 国内成品油价迎年内"第四涨"。 6月3日，国家发改委发布消息称，自24时起，国内汽油价格和柴油价格分别上调65元/吨和60元/吨。折合升价，92号汽 油、95号汽油和0号柴油均上调0.05元。 本轮成品油零售限价上调落地后，消费者用油成本有所增加。按照油箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92号或95 号汽油将多花2.5元；物流行业以月跑1万公里，百公里油耗在38L的重卡为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油 成本将增加89元左右。 据隆众资讯测算，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.7-6.9元/升，92号汽油零售限价在7.1-7.2元/升。 本轮是2025年第十一次调价，也是年内第四次上调。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈现"四涨五跌两搁浅"的格 局。 本计价周期内，国际市场消息面利好利空因素博弈，原油价格走势窄幅回落后再度上涨。 马建彩对此持相同观点。其还表示，近期国际市场消息面指引偏向利好，加之月初主营单位挺价心态较重，预计近期国 内汽柴行情仍有上推可能。但随着下游补货结束，需求面支撑随之减弱，本轮上涨行情持续时间受限。 金联创成品油分析师马建彩分析指出，欧佩克+ ...