Core Viewpoint - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to decrease, with 92 gasoline likely returning to the "6" yuan per liter range for the first time since September 2021 [1][3]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of May 15, the average price of reference crude oil was $61.55 per barrel, with a change rate of -4.42%, indicating a potential price reduction of 240 yuan per ton for domestic gasoline and diesel [3]. - The expected reduction translates to approximately 0.2 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, allowing consumers to save around 10 yuan when filling a 50-liter tank [3]. - Current prices in Jiangsu Province are 7.07 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 7.52 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 6.70 yuan for 0 diesel, suggesting that post-adjustment, 92 gasoline will fall back into the "6" yuan range [3]. Historical Context - The last time 92 gasoline in Jiangsu Province was priced in the "6" yuan range was on September 18, 2021, when it dropped from 7.0 yuan to 6.82 yuan per liter due to falling international oil prices [4]. - Since then, 92 gasoline prices have remained above 7 yuan per liter until the upcoming adjustment, with a peak price of 8.3 yuan per liter recorded in January 2025 [4]. - In 2023, there have been nine price adjustments for gasoline and diesel, with a pattern of three increases, four decreases, and two periods of no change, resulting in a cumulative decrease of 0.34 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline this year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price is expected to decrease significantly due to the ongoing decline in international crude oil prices, potentially bringing 92-octane gasoline back below 7 yuan per liter, marking a return to the "6 yuan era" [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - A new round of domestic fuel price adjustments has commenced, with an anticipated reduction of up to 330 yuan per ton, translating to a drop of 0.24-0.28 yuan per liter [1]. - In 2025, domestic fuel prices have experienced a volatile pattern with 9 adjustment windows, resulting in 3 increases, 4 decreases, and 2 periods of no change [2]. - Cumulatively, gasoline prices have decreased by 425 yuan per ton, while diesel prices have dropped by 410 yuan per ton, equating to a reduction of 0.34 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.36 yuan per liter for both 95-octane gasoline and 0 diesel [2]. Group 2: International Oil Market Impact - The international oil market has seen a significant downturn, with WTI crude oil prices hitting a near four-year low, closing at 57.13 USD per barrel, reflecting a 5.45% decline since April 29 [3]. - Brent crude oil also experienced a notable drop, closing at 60.23 USD per barrel, down 6.26% from April 29 [3]. - The current sentiment in the international oil market is extremely pessimistic, contributing to the domestic price reductions [3]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - The current price adjustment cycle runs from May 6 to May 19, with the first working day already exceeding the 50 yuan per ton reduction threshold [4]. - If international oil prices do not rebound significantly in the next two weeks, there is a possibility of a fifth price reduction this year, potentially reaching new lows [4]. - The next price adjustment window will open on May 19, with 13 days remaining to monitor further developments [4].