交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-02燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：由于近期供应充足而交易情绪平淡，同时含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货价差维持在两周来最阔贴水水平， 亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构保持稳定；据市场人士称，亚洲高硫燃料油市场仍面临压力，主要受到套利船货到港充 足以及新加坡地区高库存的拖累；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油338.47美元/吨，基差为-16元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为425.33美元/吨，基差为40元/ 吨，现货偏平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油11月26日当周库存为2059.9万桶，减少285万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线 ...

燃料油周报 （11.24-11.28） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 燃料油周评：上周，低硫燃料油市场维持疲软态势，高硫燃料油市场也走势承压，高硫报 收2467元/吨，周跌1.40%，低硫报收3025元/吨，周跌1.30%。 虽然东西方套利窗口关闭将减少未来几周抵达至新加坡的套利船货流入量，但目前新加坡 周边的含硫0.5%船用燃料油调油原料组分库存充足。且来自东南亚地区的低硫燃料油资源流入 量也在增加，新加坡地区将继续保持充足的库存。同时，下游市场仍供过于求，供应商在低硫 燃料油询盘和即期加油船位方面的竞争加剧，给码头交货估值带来了持续压力。 每周期货行情 | 品种 | ...

| | | | X | | --- | 能化板块研发报告 高硫弱势维持，低硫供应预期增长 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月高硫燃料油市场价格进一步下跌，中东供应增长同时中美进料需 求支撑减弱。新加坡高硫现货贴水在多供应和低成交价下持续下行，11 月 下旬现货贴水下跌至-6 美金/吨，较 10 月末下行约 4 美金/吨；高硫裂解也 较 10 月末下行约 2.8 美金/桶至-8 美金/桶左右水平。 11 月低硫燃料油供应缺口预期驱动由强转弱。上旬 Al-Zour 装置停产 同时 Dangote 汽油装置回归同时南苏丹低硫重质原油出口也受阻，低硫供 应缺口预期增长。下旬，南苏丹低硫原料出口恢复迅速，同时 Dangote 炼 厂汽油装置检修提前至 12 月初且检修期延长，低硫供应缺口预期减弱，低 硫现货贴水回落至 0 值以下水平。 【市场展望】 【策略推荐】 1.单边：偏弱震荡，观望。 2.套利：低硫近月价差关注逢高反套机会。低硫裂解转弱，高硫裂解弱势震荡。 3.期权：无。 风险提示：制裁政策变化、原油配额下发节奏、低硫炼厂负荷变化。 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：吴晓蓉 邮 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The market maintains a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia-Ukraine situation. The crude oil price shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will put some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation, short - term market fluctuations caused by news should be noted [1]. - The overall market contradictions of fuel oil itself are relatively limited. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakens again after a slight repair. The market supply is still relatively abundant, but the refinery production willingness is restricted due to the relatively low valuation of low - sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, so there is still support at the bottom of the market. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has weakened recently, and the support at the bottom of the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The future development of the Russia - Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.82% at 2,471 yuan/ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1% at 3,033 yuan/ton [1]. - The crude oil price is in a weak and volatile state. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may decline, and the falling oil price will suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation, short - term market fluctuations caused by news should be noted [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure weakens again after a slight repair. The supply is abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon, with Kuwait's exports expected to gradually recover. However, due to the relatively low valuation compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery production willingness is restricted, and there is still support at the bottom of the market [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has weakened recently, and the support at the bottom of the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The future development of the Russia - Ukraine situation will affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Be cautiously bearish and mainly wait and see in the short term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Be cautiously bearish and mainly wait and see in the short term [2]. - No strategies are provided for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-20燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：低硫燃料油市场整体情绪悲观，充足的库存预计将在今年剩余时间内持续压制市场基本面，而下游船 燃需求未见明显回升迹象。高硫燃料油下游需求总体健康，一直保持稳定趋势，据悉定期合同买家的足额提名量 填满了部分供应商的即期驳船档期，不过总体近期受上游原油地缘担忧转弱加之已部分计提俄罗斯制裁影响，短 期燃油缺乏刺激性上行动力，预计低位运行。FU2601：2470-2530区间运行，LU2601：3150-3220区间运行 1、基本面：贸易消息人士称，由于即期供应充足，低硫燃料油基本面短期内进一步大幅上行的空间有 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-11-19 俄罗斯燃料油发货量维持偏低水平 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.82%，报2539元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.47%，报3225 元/吨。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：前期多LU-FU价差头寸可适当止盈 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 原油价格延续弱势震荡态势，短期虽然有宏观与地缘因素的扰动，但中期油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，对燃 料油单边价格存在一定压制。就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前处于高低硫强弱格局收敛的阶段，前期偏强的高硫 燃料油基本面边际转松，市场结构调整，但下方支撑因素依然存在。其中，受到乌克兰无人机袭击的影响，俄罗 斯炼厂计划外检修量较高，导致成品油供应收紧。参考船期数据，俄罗斯11月高硫燃料油发货量预计在171万吨， 环比下降18万吨，同比减少63万吨。低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修的变化，本月尼 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils have no significant changes. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten, while the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains relatively abundant. The upstream crude oil price fluctuates, and it is expected that fuel oil will follow the same trend. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2580 - 2620, and the LU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 3260 - 3300 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 190,000 barrels in the week of November 12, reaching 20.879 million barrels. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long [3]. 2. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply, which is neutral. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 11 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 32 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels, which is neutral. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. - **Main Position**: The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, only shows the high - and low - sulfur futures spread chart. 5. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels compared to the previous period. The historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 is also provided, showing the inventory changes during this period [3][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while Singapore fuel oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and that of high - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, but the relatively abundant supply pressured prices. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,609 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,251 yuan/ton, down 0.70% for the week [4]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia increased, leading to a weakening of the market structure. Singapore is expected to receive about 2.9 - 3 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargo from the West in November. The overall sentiment in the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is still pessimistic, and sufficient inventory is expected to suppress the market fundamentals for the rest of the year, with no obvious signs of recovery in downstream bunker demand. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia remained at the current level. Although the stable arrival of shipments from the Middle East led to an abundant supply, relatively healthy downstream bunker demand still supported the high - sulfur fuel oil market. However, high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December, and the high - low sulfur price spread remains at a high level and its contraction still needs time. Operationally, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,550 - 2,750 yuan/ton in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints - Crude oil showed a rising - then - falling trend last week, and Singapore fuel oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and that of high - sulfur fuel oil remained stable. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,609 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,251 yuan/ton, down 0.70% for the week. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia increased, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was also abundant, but downstream demand provided support. High - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,550 - 2,750 yuan/ton in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,744 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,655 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton or 3.25%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,290 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,255 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.05% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of fuel oil in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan increased from 459.00 US dollars to 466.00 US dollars, an increase of 7.00 US dollars or 1.53%, while the price of Singapore diesel decreased from 704.06 US dollars to 677.18 US dollars, a decrease of 26.88 US dollars or 3.82% [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: There are data on Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 - 2025, presented in graphical form [7][8][9]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis content provided 3.5 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: From August 27th to November 12th, Singapore's fuel oil inventory showed fluctuations. For example, on October 22nd, the inventory increased by 5.09 million barrels to 27.449 million barrels, and on October 29th, it decreased by 6.52 million barrels to 20.929 million barrels [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that fuel oil will trade in a range due to a small intraday increase in crude oil, a lack of substantial positive news in the bunker market, and continued wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. Specifically, FU2601 is expected to trade between 2660 - 2720, and LU2601 between 3240 - 3280 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, with some support from a mild recovery in downstream bunker activities, but the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has reached its largest discount in over a week. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by stable downstream bunker demand, but competitive quotes for November second - half shipments have limited the spot spread. - The basis shows that Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of - 55 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of - 12 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 5 was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels. - The price is near the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending downward. - High - sulfur main position is short, with an increase in short positions, while low - sulfur main position is long, with an increase in long positions [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely positives**: Russia has extended its fuel export restrictions; the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely negatives**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified. - **Market drivers**: The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks affecting supply and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures prices**: The previous FU main contract futures price was 2692, and the current price is 2683, a decrease of 9 or - 0.33%. The previous LU main contract futures price was 3257, and the current price is 3268, an increase of 11 or 0.34%. - **Spot prices**: The previous and current prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil are 469.00 and 470.00 respectively, an increase of 1.00 or 0.21%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil remains unchanged at 478.00. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 363.90 to 363.56, a decrease of - 0.34 or - 0.09%. Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 453.50 to 449.36, a decrease of - 4.14 or - 0.91%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 334.02 to 332.91, a decrease of - 1.11 or - 0.33%. Singapore diesel increased from 687.45 to 704.48, an increase of 17.04 or 2.48% [5][6]. 3.4 Inventory Data Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 shows fluctuations. In the week of November 5, the inventory was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels compared to the previous period [8]. 3.5 Spread Data The report presents a chart of the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but no specific numerical analysis is provided other than the scale on the chart [10].

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and fuel oil prices also mainly rose first and then fell. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets were dragged down by sufficient supply, with weak overall trends. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2677 yuan/ton, down 2.48% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3255 yuan/ton, down 0.40% for the week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market still faces the dilemma of sufficient immediate supply and sluggish downstream bunker fuel activities, but the current East - West arbitrage economy is basically unfeasible, which may help reduce arbitrage cargoes from Europe in December and relieve the current oversupply situation. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported by stable downstream bunker fuel demand, but competitive quotes for shipments in the second half of November have suppressed spot spreads. International crude oil prices may fluctuate slightly lower, and fuel oil prices are expected to continue to decline weakly. Operationally, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the 2600 - 2800 range in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3200 - 3350 range in the short term [5] Group 2: Periodic and Spot Price Summary - Futures Price: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2790, and the current value is 2744, a decrease of 46 or 1.66%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3253, and the current value is 3290, an increase of 37 or 1.12% [6] - Spot Price: The previous value of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 465.00, and the current value is 469.00, an increase of 4.00 or 0.86%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 477.00, and the current value is 478.00, an increase of 1.00 or 0.21%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 364.42, and the current value is 363.42, a decrease of 1.00 or - 0.27%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 452.50, and the current value is 449.50, a decrease of 3.00 or - 0.66%. The previous value of Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil was 333.59, and the current value is 334.02, an increase of 0.43 or 0.13%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 675.32, and the current value is 677.96, an increase of 2.65 or 0.39% [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Summary - Consumption Data: There are charts showing Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [8][9][10] Group 4: Inventory Data Summary - Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory: On November 5, the inventory was 2106.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels. There are also inventory data from August 20 to October 29, showing fluctuations in inventory [11] - Inventory Trends: There are descriptions of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [12][13] Group 5: Spread Data Summary - High - and Low - Sulfur Futures Spread: There is a chart showing the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [15]