Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, international crude oil fluctuated, and fuel oil prices first rose and then fell. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,813 yuan/ton, up 1.22% for the week, while low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,475 yuan/ton, down 0.69% for the week [5]. - Due to the unfeasibility of East - West arbitrage, the inflow of arbitrage cargo from the West in September is expected to decrease, which will boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The tight barge operation berths support the increase in the premium of Singapore's marine fuel delivery, and the downstream marine fueling demand will also increase, further supporting the low - sulfur fuel oil market [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, with sufficient supply and stable marine fuel demand, the market will maintain range - bound fluctuations in the near future. However, some traders are worried about the lack of raw material demand before the autumn refinery maintenance season and the weakening of power generation demand after summer. Unless the fueling activities pick up before the year - end holidays, the supply glut in Singapore may intensify. Next week, international crude oil prices may fluctuate slightly higher, and Singapore's fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly with the market. Operationally, trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,750 - 2,900 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,400 - 3,550 range [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Weekly View - High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,813 yuan/ton, up 1.22% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,475 yuan/ton, down 0.69% for the week. International crude oil prices may fluctuate slightly higher next week, and Singapore's fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,750 - 2,900 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,400 - 3,550 range [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2,726, and the current value is 2,855, up 4.75%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3,459, and the current value is 3,508, up 1.40% [6]. - **Spot prices**: For Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil, the previous value was 500.00, and the current value is 503.00, up 0.60%. For Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil, the previous value was 515.00, and the current value is 520.00, up 0.97%. For Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, the previous value was 392.38, and the current value is 392.93, up 0.14%. For Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, the previous value was 492.50, and the current value is 491.50, down 0.20%. For Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil, the previous value was 372.28, and the current value is 372.46, up 0.05%. For Singapore diesel, the previous value was 620.24, and the current value is 621.83, up 0.26% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Graphs of Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margin from 2021 - 2025 are presented, but specific numerical changes are not described in the text [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory: On August 27, the inventory was 2,188.9 million barrels, a decrease of 203 million barrels compared to the previous period [12]. - Graphs of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends are presented, but specific numerical changes are not described in the text [13][14]. 3.5 Spread Data - A graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread is presented, but specific numerical changes are not described in the text [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry is a combination of multiple factors, with a neutral to mixed stance considering various aspects such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [3]. Core Viewpoints - The impact of the Russian refinery attack persists, keeping high - sulfur fuel oil prices at a high level. In Zhoushan, the North Asian bunkering center, tight barge schedules and moderate low - sulfur fuel oil demand are expected to boost valuations in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong, while low - sulfur fuel oil may also see some support as the spot market's buying interest for September - loaded cargoes increases. The expected price ranges are 2890 - 2940 for FU2510 and 3540 - 3580 for LU2511 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The Russian Novoshakhtinsk refinery was attacked by drones, with a fire lasting four days as of Sunday. The refinery has an annual processing capacity of 5 million tons of oil (about 100,000 barrels per day). The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened on August 25 due to expected tighter arbitrage supply in the coming weeks and tight barge operation berths in Singapore. The stable downstream bunker demand supports the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals, but the weakening power generation demand in the Middle East may lead to increased exports and regional inventory accumulation [3]. - The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 20 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 70 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 20 was 23.919 million barrels, an increase of 1.28 million barrels [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - High - sulfur fuel oil's main position has changed from short to long, while low - sulfur fuel oil's main position has increased short positions [3]. 2. Multi - Short Focus - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - Bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and the weak upstream crude oil prices. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price is 390.52 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil price is 489.5 US dollars/ton [3]. - The daily changes in futures prices show that the FU main contract futures price increased from 2767 to 2878 (a 4.01% increase), and the LU main contract futures price increased from 3467 to 3521 (a 1.56% increase) [5]. - The daily changes in spot prices show that the prices of various fuel oils in different regions all had small increases, with the increase range from 0.75% to 1.31% [6]. 4. Spread Data - Not provided in the content. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from June 4 to August 13 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 1.28 million barrels in the week of August 20 [3][8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （8.18-8.22） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 从基本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构继续走弱，高硫燃料油市场仍有压力。具体来看：受短期内套利船货供 应充裕担忧及需求疲软影响，亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构进一步走弱。尽管东西方套利经济性仍不可行，但8月 预计新加坡将接收来自西方的约280-290万吨的低硫燃料油套利货量，高于7月的230-240万吨。不过交易商预计 随着市场转向9月下半月船货交易，低硫燃料油市场基本面将逐步企稳。 高硫方面，尽管船期紧张支撑下游船加油市场需求，但交易商担心中东夏季高峰过后发电需求下滑可能加 剧新加坡地区的供应压力。当前新加坡高硫燃料油在浮仓及固 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient supply and weak demand. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is also suppressed by overall sufficient supply. Overnight, crude oil oscillated at a low level, and fuel oil moved in tandem. With the US arranging a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders, market risk sentiment has subsided. Fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level, with FU2509 operating in the 2670 - 2730 range and LU2510 in the 3430 - 3480 range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak due to supply and demand; overall supply weighs on high - sulfur fuel oil market [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have positive basis, with spot prices higher than futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels [3]. - **Market Chart**: Fuel oil prices are below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main position is long, with long positions increasing [3]. - **Expectation**: Fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level, with FU2509 in the 2670 - 2730 range and LU2510 in the 3430 - 3480 range [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand optimism needs verification, and upstream crude oil prices are weak [4]. - **Market Driver**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The price of the FU main contract decreased by 20 to 2680, a decline of 0.74%; the price of the LU main contract decreased by 1 to 3458, a decline of 0.03%. The FU basis increased by 25 to 188, a rise of 15.49%; the LU basis increased by 6 to 81, a rise of 8.19% [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 2 to 484, a decline of 0.41%; the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.18 to 387.79, a decline of 0.05%. Other prices also had corresponding changes [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8]. 3.5 Spread Data The report does not provide specific spread data analysis, only shows a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: Neutral with a slight positive bias. Recent drivers are on the supply side. OPEC+ is expected to increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day. Chevron has regained the license to produce oil in Venezuela, and Venezuelan crude oil shipments to Asia have decreased. As the deadline for the US-Russia agreement approaches and Russian refineries are attacked, the high-sulfur price is relatively supported. Attention should be paid to recent high-sulfur spot procurement and digestion, as well as tariff sanctions and crude oil quotas [4]. - **Spread**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. Affected by tariff sanctions, as the US-Russia negotiation deadline approaches and Russian oil exports are blocked, the supply risk premium rises. The high-sulfur spread fluctuates at a high level of around -$3 per ton, weaker than last week [4]. - **Price Difference**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. The decline in international crude oil prices drags down the fuel oil price [4]. - **Supply**: Negative. The global total shipment is expected to be loose. Western arbitrage cargoes are arriving in Singapore successively, and the arrivals in Singapore are high, with still large inventory pressure [4]. - **Demand**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. The power generation demand is gradually weakening [4]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Singapore's fuel oil has started to destock but remains at a high level [4]. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil price weakens. In the short term, the low-sulfur fuel oil price is expected to fluctuate. The arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore in August are at a high level, and Kuwait's low-sulfur shipments are stable, with no obvious increase in low-sulfur supply. The low-sulfur market in China has sufficient supply, and the demand is dominated by rigid demand. The domestic marine fuel market is in a stalemate. In July, CNOOC's low-sulfur quota was exhausted, and the production scheduling expectations of Sinopec and PetroChina are weak. Attention should be paid to the recent adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [5]. - **Spread**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. Affected by tariff sanctions, as the US-Russia negotiation deadline approaches and Russian oil exports are blocked, the supply risk premium rises. The low-sulfur spread fluctuates slightly in the range of $8 - $9 per ton, slightly down from last week [5]. - **Price Difference**: Negative. The spot price difference of low-sulfur fuel oil is weak, and in the short term, it is under pressure. The price difference between high and low-sulfur fuel oils narrows [5]. - **Supply**: Neutral. The departures from Brazil in July and August are low. The early return of Dangote RFCC leads to a reduced expectation of low-sulfur supply. Continued attention should be paid to the arrivals [5]. - **Demand**: Neutral with a slight positive bias. The summer power generation demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is weakening, and the marine fuel demand is stable and improving, but due to sufficient supply, the bunkering profit is average [5]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains at a high level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Core Logic - **Russia**: In July, the offline refining capacity was adjusted upwards. From July to August, it reached the annual maintenance low, providing strong support for high-sulfur exports in the next three months. The offline primary refining capacity in August is expected to drop to 3.74 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 260,000 tons). As of August 14, 2025, Russia's weekly high-sulfur exports are about 650,000 tons. The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia in July 2025, including a reduction in the Russian oil export price from $60 to $47.6 per barrel and a ban on new transactions of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. The US imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, raising the tax rate to 50%. According to EA analysis, India may reduce its Russian crude oil imports to less than 1 million barrels per day [9]. - **Latin America**: As of August 10, 2025, the high-sulfur fuel oil exports from Latin America are about 270,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease. In July 2025, the crude oil processing volume of Mexican refineries increased slightly. On July 25, Chevron regained the license, and the crude oil flowing from Venezuela to Asia is expected to decrease. On August 7, 2025, a new coking unit of the Tula refinery started operation, with a residue processing capacity of 100,000 barrels per day. After the commissioning, the crude oil processing volume of Tula increased from the previous 150,000 tons per day to 170,000 barrels per day [11]. - **Middle East**: In July 2025, the high-sulfur fuel oil exports from the Middle East were 4.36 million tons, at a historical low for the same period. Saudi Arabia's high-sulfur fuel oil exports increased significantly to 210,000 tons in July (+34.5%), mainly shipped to Singapore, Malaysia, and South Asia. As of August 10, 2025, the floating storage of fuel oil in the Middle East increased slightly to 1.17 million tons (+140,000 tons). The power generation demand in July was not high. The tension in the Israel-Iran conflict has subsided, and there are no new variables in the high-sulfur fuel oil exports from the Middle East. The large-scale maintenance of Middle East refineries has ended, and the maintenance capacity of refineries in July was between 12.6 million and 18.9 million tons [14]. - **Singapore**: As of August 10, 2025, the floating storage of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Pan-Singapore region is about 1.18 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons), at a high level. This week, the arrivals of fuel oil in Singapore are 675,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 100,000 tons), mainly from Russia and the Middle East. The departures are 100,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons), mainly flowing to China and Southeast Asia [19][22]. - **China**: Shandong Province is piloting an increase in the tax refund amount for some independent refineries' fuel oil, and the expected increase in the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio is 25%, leading to a decline in the feedstock cost of fuel oil. Under the tax reform pilot, China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports rebounded from the low in May. The imports in June were about 1.05 million tons, and in July about 700,000 tons. As of August 10, 2025, the imports of high-sulfur fuel oil in China are about 390,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 140,000 tons) [37]. Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the inventory in Singapore is 3.88 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 260,000 tons), in the US 3.1 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons), in Fujairah 1.16 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 360,000 tons), in ARA 1.03 million tons (stable), and in Zhoushan 1.18 million tons (a decrease of 60,000 tons). As of August 14, 2025, the total fuel oil warehouse receipts are 80,710 tons (Yangshan Petroleum -5,000 tons, Sinochem Xingzhong -7,000 tons), and the total low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts are 16,080 tons (Yangshan Petroleum -4,970 tons) [92][94][97].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, international crude oil trended downward, and fuel oil prices mostly fluctuated lower. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,709 yuan/ton, down 2.06% for the week, while low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,484 yuan/ton, up 0.87% for the week [5]. - Ample supply continues to suppress the fundamental of the low - sulfur fuel oil market. Traders expect a surge in Western arbitrage cargoes to boost inventories in Singapore. Due to the short - term inventory increase expectation, the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has fallen to the lowest discount level in more than four months. Despite the continuous closure of the arbitrage window for compliant 0.5% sulfur marine fuel from Northwest Europe to Singapore, low - sulfur blending components from the market west of Suez still flow in continuously. Meanwhile, weak downstream demand will continue to suppress the market fundamentals in the coming weeks [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, although the immediate supply is sufficient and the seasonal public demand weakens, which continues to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market, the premium of downstream high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is boosted by stable demand and moderate shipping schedules. Additionally, the expected supply reduction from September may support the market [5]. - Next week, international crude oil prices may have room to fluctuate higher, and Singapore fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly following the market. Operationally, trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,650 - 2,800 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,400 - 3,550 range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints - International crude oil and fuel oil price trends last week, and price changes of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [5]. - Analysis of supply, demand, and price trends of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets, and trading suggestions for next week [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,823, the current value is 2,730, down 93 or 3.29%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,540, the current value is 3,465, down 76 or 2.14% [6]. - Spot prices: Different types of fuel oils in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East showed small price changes, with increases or decreases ranging from - 0.19% to 0.40% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Charts show Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 13 shows changes in inventory levels and increases or decreases [12]. - Charts show Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends [13][15]. 3.5 Spread Data - A chart shows the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur futures [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure and spot spreads remain unchanged due to weak demand and sufficient supply. In August, Singapore is expected to receive about 2.8 - 2.9 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargo from the West, higher than 2.3 - 2.4 million tons in July. The spot discount of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has narrowed to $2.90/ton, the smallest since turning negative on July 1st [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 183 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 13th was 22.639 million barrels, an increase of 1.89 million barrels [3]. - The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions increasing, while the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long [3]. - The good atmosphere of the US - Russia talks reduces the probability of energy sanctions on Russia, pressuring upstream crude oil. There is a lack of demand - stimulating highlights in the shipping sector. In the short term, fuel oil will run weakly. FU2509 will operate in the range of 2670 - 2710, and LU2510 will operate in the range of 3430 - 3480 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The futures prices of FU and LU main contracts decreased slightly. The basis of FU increased by 3.98%, and that of LU increased by 23.39% [5]. - The spot prices of most fuel oil products changed slightly. The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil increased, while those of some others decreased slightly [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors: There is a possibility of increased sanctions on Russia [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamental situation of fuel oil is neutral. The supply and demand situation affects the market structure and spreads. The narrowing of the high - sulfur fuel oil spot discount is due to strong buying from Trafigura Group [3]. - The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [3]. - The inventory increase is a bearish factor [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No detailed spread data analysis is provided other than the mention of the high - low sulfur futures spread in the title [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has shown fluctuations. In the week of August 13th, it increased significantly to 22.639 million barrels [3][8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to expected short - term inventory increases, with the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel reaching the lowest discount level in over four months. The high - sulfur marine fuel demand from downstream remains relatively stable. [3] - The market is waiting for the meeting between the US and Russian leaders. Oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, but the terminal rigid demand boost is insufficient. The bearish sentiment in the fuel market is obvious, and fuel is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level. The FU2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2700 - 2740, and the LU2510 contract in the range of 3430 - 3480. [3] - The行情 is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens due to inventory increase expectations; high - sulfur marine fuel demand is relatively stable, neutral. [3] - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $388.47/ton with a basis of 176 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is $480.5/ton with a basis of 88 yuan/ton, spot premium over futures, bullish. [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels, bearish. [3][8] - **Disk**: Prices are below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, bearish. [3] - **Main positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short, and short positions increase; low - sulfur main positions are long, changing from short to long. [3] - **Expectations**: The fuel market is expected to oscillate at a low level. FU2509: 2700 - 2740 range; LU2510: 3430 - 3480 range. [3] 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to rise**: Sanctions against Russia may be intensified. [4] - **Likely to fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak. [4] - **Market driver**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral. [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The report provides information on the basis of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, with the spot premium over futures, indicating a bullish signal in terms of basis. [3] 3.4 Spread Data No specific spread data analysis is provided other than a graphical display of the high - low sulfur futures spread. [12] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 4 to August 13 is provided, showing that the inventory on the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period. [3][8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened, with the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel dropping to the lowest discount level in more than four months due to expected short - term inventory increases. The high - sulfur marine fuel demand from downstream remains relatively stable. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased in the week of August 6, which is bearish. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is sloping down. The main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, suggesting a bearish view. - Overnight crude oil was weak, and the short - term market lacks clear long or short guidance. The fuel oil is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range. FU2509 will operate between 2700 - 2740, and LU2510 between 3420 - 3460 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by inventory increase expectations. The high - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively stable. The basis is positive, the inventory increased, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions are short. The fuel oil is expected to trade in a low - level range [3]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Potential intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of FU and LU main contracts decreased. The basis of FU increased from 141 to 206 yuan/ton, and the basis of LU increased from 85 to 133 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of most fuel oil products in the spot market changed. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 9 dollars/ton (-1.83%), and the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 4.06 dollars/ton (1.03%) [6]. 4. Spread Data The report mentions the high - low sulfur futures spread, but no specific analysis is provided [12]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Bearish [5] Core Views High-sulfur fuel oil - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day. Chevron has regained the license to produce oil in Venezuela, and the crude oil logistics from Venezuela to Asia has decreased. Currently, the high-sulfur supply in Asia is sufficient and inventories are accumulating. The bunker fuel加注 volume in Fujairah has weakened month-on-month. As the deadline for the agreement set by the US on Russia approaches, the high-sulfur price is relatively supported. Attention should be paid to the recent high-sulfur spot procurement and digestion, tariff sanctions, and crude oil quotas [4]. Low-sulfur fuel oil - OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil price is weakening. In the short term, the low-sulfur fuel oil price is expected to fluctuate. The low-sulfur arrivals in Singapore reached a high in August, and the low-sulfur shipments from Kuwait are stable, with no obvious increase in low-sulfur supply. The low-sulfur market in China has sufficient supply, and demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. The domestic bunker fuel market is at a standstill. In July, CNOOC's low-sulfur quota was exhausted, and the production scheduling expectations of Sinopec and PetroChina are weak. Attention should be paid to the recent adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [5]. Summary by Category High-sulfur fuel oil - **裂差**: Under the influence of tariff sanctions, as the negotiation deadline between the US and Russia approaches, Russian oil exports are受阻, and the supply risk premium has increased. The high-sulfur crack spread is at a high level and has strengthened compared to last week [4]. - **价差**: The decline in international crude oil prices has dragged down the fuel oil price [4]. - **供应**: The global total shipments are expected to be loose, and the arrivals in Singapore are relatively high [4]. - **需求**: The power generation demand weakened after reaching its peak in August [4]. - **库存**: Inventories at the ports of Singapore and Zhoushan have significantly increased [4]. Low-sulfur fuel oil - **裂差**: Under the influence of tariff sanctions, as the negotiation deadline between the US and Russia approaches, Russian oil exports are受阻, and the supply risk premium has increased. The low-sulfur crack spread fluctuates slightly within the range of $10 - $12 per ton and has rebounded slightly compared to last week [5]. - **价差**: The spot spread of low-sulfur fuel oil is weak and under short-term pressure, and the spread between high and low-sulfur fuels has narrowed [5]. - **供应**: The global low-sulfur supply has not changed much. Dangote Refinery cancelled its maintenance in June, and the increase in Brazilian exports has remained stable. The low-sulfur exports from Al-Zour have recovered with the end of technical problem maintenance, and recent outbound shipments have remained at a high level. In July, CNOOC's low-sulfur quota was exhausted, and the production scheduling expectations of Sinopec and PetroChina are weak [5]. - **需求**: The low-sulfur power generation demand in summer has weakened, the bunker fuel demand remains stable, and downstream buyers take delivery based on rigid needs [5]. - **库存**: The arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in China have continued to rise to a historical high [5].