Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The basis of methanol at ports has weakened again. - There are concerns about inventory accumulation at ports due to increased import pressure in June, while the inland is in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. - Methanol production profit remains relatively high. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously short - hedge [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang, different regions' spot - to - futures basis, and inter - term spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China [26][30]. III. Methanol开工, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate is presented through figures [34][36]. IV. Regional Spreads - The report provides figures on various regional spreads, such as the spread between northern Shandong and the northwest, and between Taicang and southern Shandong [38][47][52]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production margins of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][55].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expected methanol inventory accumulation cycle did not continue, and the port inventory declined again this week. However, there were ship cargo diversions to Taicang in the MTO area, causing the previously high methanol port basis to drop rapidly. There are concerns about a rapid increase in Taicang port inventory next week, and an inflection point in inventory is anticipated. The overseas operating rate has slightly declined from its high level, and Iranian plants have reduced their loads due to inventory pressure, but there is still pressure for an increase in Chinese imports. In the inland region, the coal-based methanol operating rate has returned to a high level, and the inland is gradually entering an inventory accumulation cycle. Among traditional downstream industries, MTBE has reduced its load due to losses, while acetic acid production still shows some resilience [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - Figures 1 - 8 show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) and the main futures contract, with units in yuan/ton - Figures 9 - 11 show the price spreads between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01), with units in yuan/ton [6] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figure 12 shows the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, with units in yuan/ton - Figure 13 shows the MTO profit (PP&EG type) in East China, with units in yuan/ton - Figure 14 shows the import price difference (excluding additional points) between Taicang methanol and CFR China, with units in yuan/ton - Figures 15 - 17 show the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, with units in US dollars/ton [6] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Figure 18 shows the total methanol port inventory, with units in tons - Figure 19 shows the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), with units in % - Figure 20 shows the sample inventory of inland factories, with units in tons - Figure 21 shows the Chinese methanol operating rate (including integrated operations), with units in % [6] IV. Regional Price Spreads - Figures 22 - 27 show the price spreads between different regions (Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200), with units in yuan/ton [6] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures 28 - 31 show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6]

日报 | 2025-04-29 伊朗港口事件影响有限 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤460元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润775元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2170元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差460元/吨（-32），内蒙南线2150元/吨（-90）；山东临沂2450元/吨（-18），鲁 南基差340元/吨（-62）；河南2400元/吨（-10），河南基差290元/吨（-32）；河北2460元/吨（+0），河北基差410元/ 吨（-22）。隆众内地工厂库存309800吨（-2569），西北工厂库存178600吨（-9400）；隆众内地工厂待发订单302675 吨（+28265），西北工厂待发订单159800吨（+23300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2433元/吨（-2），太仓基差123元/吨（+1），CFR中国271美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差-9元/吨 （-6），常州甲醇2605元/吨；广东甲醇2460元/吨（+0），广东基差150元/吨（-27）。隆众港口总库存463200吨（-122400）， 江苏港口库存224000吨（-57300），浙江港口库存1 ...