Summary of Virtual Power Plant Conference Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **virtual power plant (VPP)** industry, which integrates distributed energy resources to participate in demand response, ancillary services, and the electricity spot market, aiming for grid balance and maximized revenue [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Business Model and Profitability - The VPP's business model supports grid balance, traditionally managed by thermal power plants. With increasing renewable energy capacity, the demand for balancing capabilities has risen. VPPs provide flexible and economical balancing by integrating distributed energy resources [2]. - VPPs engage in demand response by reducing user electricity consumption during supply shortages, receiving compensation for this service. They also participate in ancillary services and the spot market to maximize revenue through real-time trading [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The electricity spot market has normalized demand response, allowing companies to continuously engage in energy trading and earn profits. Key provinces like **Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangdong** have established policies that enable VPPs to leverage their advantages [4]. - Real-time prices in the spot market reflect supply-demand balance, allowing companies to adjust their electricity usage strategies accordingly. The comparison of baseline and real-time loads provides reliable data for optimizing operational strategies [4]. Ancillary Services - Ancillary services, including ramping and frequency regulation, are crucial for addressing fluctuations in renewable energy generation. These services provide additional revenue streams for VPPs [8]. - Ramping services require quick response resources, while frequency regulation involves complex calculations that affect settlement prices based on performance coefficients [8]. Differences Between VPPs and Retail Electricity Companies - VPPs focus on optimizing energy usage through demand response and ancillary services, while retail electricity companies primarily assist consumers in purchasing energy at lower costs [9]. Industry Chain Composition - The VPP industry chain consists of three parts: - **Downstream**: National grid as the main entity for electricity transactions. - **Midstream**: Aggregation platforms or companies that integrate resources. - **Upstream**: Energy storage, distributed photovoltaics, and adjustable loads [11]. Role of Adjustable Loads - Adjustable loads are pivotal for VPP development, allowing entities like bus stations and high-energy-consuming industries to profit by adjusting their electricity usage [12][14]. Technological Requirements - Key technological requirements for VPPs include high-quality load forecasting and aggregation capabilities. Accurate predictions are essential for participating in the day-ahead market and ensuring compliance with performance standards [15][16]. Additional Important Insights Future Trends - The future of VPPs includes stricter compliance assessments and more detailed trading varieties. The construction of VPPs in Germany serves as a reference model for China [24]. - The development of VPPs globally shows significant differences, with Europe and the U.S. having more mature systems compared to China's early-stage market [25][26]. Challenges in China - China's VPP development faces challenges such as limited profitability for retail electricity companies and the need for technological upgrades in high-capacity enterprises to support frequent operations [27][29]. Policy Impact - The spot market and related policies are crucial for advancing VPPs in China, with increasing provincial participation and clear timelines set by regulatory documents [28]. This summary encapsulates the essential aspects of the virtual power plant industry as discussed in the conference, highlighting its business model, market dynamics, technological needs, and future directions.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the initiation of the first settlement trial run for the Henan electricity spot market in 2025, highlighting the operational timeline, participant scope, and settlement mechanisms [1][11]. Group 1: Trial Run Details - The trial run will take place from June 19 to June 27, 2025, with market declarations starting on June 18 [1][11]. - The trial includes a two-day adjustment operation on June 19 and 20, followed by settlement from June 21 to 27 [1][11]. - During the adjustment period, the peak-shaving auxiliary service market will operate normally, requiring participants to declare their peak-shaving market intentions [1][11]. Group 2: Participant Scope - Participants include all regulated coal-fired power generation enterprises involved in existing medium- and long-term transactions, centralized renewable energy stations, and ordinary market electricity users [1][12]. - Independent storage facilities and virtual power plants are also included as new operational entities [1][12]. Group 3: Independent Storage Participation - A total of 12 independent storage stations will participate in the trial run, with specific capacities and energy storage details provided [3][4]. - Independent storage stations will participate in the spot market with a "report quantity, no price" approach, accepting local generation prices for incoming energy and a weighted average price for outgoing energy [2][26]. Group 4: Settlement Mechanism - The settlement during the trial run will follow a deviation settlement method, compensating independent storage for any costs incurred due to grid adjustments if total expenses fall below prior earnings [5][37]. - The minimum and maximum price limits for the spot energy market are set at 50 yuan/MWh and 1200 yuan/MWh, respectively, with future adjustments based on national requirements [2][27]. Group 5: Risk Control Measures - Independent storage will receive compensation if daily average energy earnings fall below 0.765 million yuan per 10,000 kW capacity during the trial run [6][43]. - The trial run includes measures to control profit and loss risks, with a limit set at ±0.02 yuan/kWh for both coal-fired power enterprises and user-side participants [52].

Group 1: Electricity Trading and Market Conditions - In 2025, the bilateral negotiation for electricity direct trading in Hebei South Network was completed, with a transaction volume accounting for approximately 80% [1] - The continuous settlement trial for the electricity spot market in Hebei South Network began on March 1, 2025 [1] - The company's electricity generation in Q1 2025 saw a slight year-on-year decline due to high demand in winter 2024 and slower growth in social electricity consumption in Hebei [1] Group 2: Coal Procurement and Pricing - The company expects a decrease in electricity generation in Q2 2025 due to maintenance after the heating season, but falling coal prices are anticipated to enhance profitability [2] - The main sources of coal procurement are local Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [2] - The company is optimizing its coal procurement structure to reduce costs, closely monitoring market trends [2] - A general oversupply of domestic thermal coal is expected in 2025, leading to further price declines [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Projects - The company completed the acquisition of 50% stakes in Qin Electric Company and Jiantou Zhuneng Company at the end of 2024, adding 1.32 million kW of controlled capacity and 1.195 million kW of equity capacity in 2025 [2] - Ongoing projects include the construction of the 2×660 MW Phase IV of Xibaipo Power Plant and the 2×35 MW Phase II of Renqiu Thermal Power Plant, with plans for commissioning in 2026 [2] - The company is also increasing investment in offshore wind projects, specifically two projects of 250 MW each in Tangshan [2] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company has established a stable profit distribution policy, increasing the cash dividend from 30% to 50% of the distributable profits as approved at the annual shareholders' meeting [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply - side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. The demand - side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules reduced, silicon wafer enterprise self - discipline quotas lowered, and cell enterprises having production reduction plans. Terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment after the "rush to install" boom. The new photovoltaic installation policy since June 1st reduces the rate of return, and overseas market demand is uncertain due to macro - economic instability and international trade frictions. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. Long - term operation should focus on short - selling [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 33,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is 1,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the main contract position is 61,698 lots, an increase of 1,499 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 26,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan; the basis is 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan; the spot price is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the total social inventory is 58.7 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 7,192.8 million kilowatts, a decrease of 651.6 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789.32 million pieces, a decrease of 11,583.8 million pieces; the monthly import volume is 20,120.44 million pieces, an increase of 10,274.32 million pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece [2]. Industry News - As of June 11th, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are stable. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9th and continued on June 10th [2].

绿电直连政策以制度创新"四应"国家大局 绿电直连是风、光、生物质等新能源通过直连线路向单一电力用户供给绿电，实现电量清晰物理溯 源的模式。国家发展改革委、国家能源局不循旧历，联合 印发《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事 项的通知》（以下简称《通知》） ，实现 "四应"，即呼应社会诉求、响应行业发展、回应系统安 全、顺应电力改革，以制度创新服务国家大局，助推新质生产力发展，凸显了国家发展改革委、国 家能源局的政治机关意识和服务型政府责任担当。 一、呼应社会诉求快速出台政策 为此，《通知》从四个方面对加强规划引领进行部署。 一是在项目建设上区分四种情形 ， 对存量 负荷、新增负荷、出口外向型企业、新能源消纳受限等情况，分门别类予以规范。特别是对具有自 备电厂的存量负荷，提出足额清缴可再生能源发展基金前提下的绿电直连实施路径。 二是在规划统 筹上强调 "三入" ， 即风光发电规模要计入省级新能源发电开发建设方案，项目建设方案要纳入省 级或城市的能源电力和国土空间规划，特殊情况接入 220（330）千伏电网的要纳入电力系统安全 风险专项评估范畴。 三是模式创新上强调三个明确 ， 主责单位明确，原则上由负荷作为绿电直连 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment of a new electricity spot market system in Sichuan, emphasizing a model that integrates multiple power sources, optimizes all electricity volumes, and operates throughout all water periods, aiming to enhance supply security and promote renewable energy consumption [1][14]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The new electricity spot market system will be built on principles of safety, locality, and scientific connection, ensuring reliable power supply while optimizing energy resources and promoting a green energy transition [15]. - Key tasks include establishing a market mechanism that meets Sichuan's supply and consumption needs, enhancing the connection between long-term and spot markets, and developing supporting rules for market transactions and risk management [15][16]. Group 2: Market Participants - Market participants include various types of power generation companies, electricity users, electricity sales companies, and new operational entities such as distributed renewable energy, independent storage, and virtual power plants [2][17]. - Specific types of power generation companies involved are provincial hydropower, public coal-fired power, and centralized renewable energy, while gas and biomass plants are currently excluded [2][17]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanism - The initial pricing model will adopt a system marginal price mechanism, with plans to transition to zonal pricing by 2027 and subsequently to nodal pricing [3][19]. - The market will set a lower limit of 0 for the spot market in 2026, with upper limits based on coal-fired power marginal costs and peak user electricity prices [3][20]. Group 4: Market Operation - The market structure will include a "day-ahead pre-clearance without settlement, intra-day rolling optimization, and real-time clearance and settlement" approach, tailored to Sichuan's high hydropower proportion and variable water conditions [5][22]. - Participants will engage in the market through "quantity reporting and bidding" or as price takers, depending on their capabilities [6][22][23]. Group 5: Market Settlement - The settlement model will follow a "daily clearing and monthly settlement" approach, with daily calculations based on market clearance results and a monthly basis for issuing settlement documents [8][32]. - All electricity transactions will be settled at spot market prices, with long-term contracts subject to price difference settlements [8][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 42x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to accelerate growth starting from Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 550 million CNY for 2024, representing a 20.5% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 93.59 million CNY, growing by 11.1% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 40.1% to 145 million CNY, with a net profit of 16.61 million CNY, up 34.6% [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the distributed power station business and effective cost control measures [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 456 million CNY in 2023 to 1.376 billion CNY by 2027, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 26.9%, 20.5%, 38.0%, 48.4%, and 22.2% [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 84 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 25.6%, 11.1%, 61.5%, 57.7%, and 27.9% [3][12]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 67.6% in 2023 to 57.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 18.5% to 22.2% over the same period [3][12]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates revenue from various business segments, including 310 million CNY from power prediction products (+15.6%), 124 million CNY from grid control systems (+28.1%), and 52.49 million CNY from new energy management systems (+17.8%) [8]. - The Q1 2025 revenue growth is significantly influenced by the rapid increase in income from distributed photovoltaic power station power prediction products [8]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies and the growing demand for distributed photovoltaic power station services, which will likely enhance its customer base and business growth in 2025 and 2026 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 42x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to accelerate growth starting from Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 550 million CNY for 2024, representing a 20.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 93.59 million CNY, up 11.1% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a significant revenue growth of 40.1% to 145 million CNY, with a net profit increase of 34.6% to 16.61 million CNY [1]. - The growth in distributed power station-related businesses and effective cost control have led to an upward revision of revenue growth expectations [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 456 million CNY in 2023 to 1.376 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 84 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 27.9% [3]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 67.6% in 2023 to 57.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 18.5% to 22.2% over the same period [3]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from various business segments is expected to grow, with power prediction products reaching 310 million CNY (+15.6%), grid-connected control systems at 124 million CNY (+28.1%), and other products showing significant growth [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 indicates a notable acceleration in revenue, primarily driven by the rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic power station power prediction products [8]. Market and Policy Environment - The company is positioned to benefit from favorable policies and the increasing demand for distributed photovoltaic power station services, which are expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electricity industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with a goal of nationwide coverage by 2025. The "394" document encourages advanced provinces to transition to formal operations by the end of 2025, while non-pilot provinces like Shaanxi are expected to do so by mid-2026 [3][9][10] - New energy sources will face competitive challenges as they enter the market, creating significant development opportunities for third-party entities such as pumped storage and virtual power plants [3][10][12] - The outlook for the spot market construction indicates a comprehensive rollout from 2025 to 2026, with regulatory resources expected to benefit continuously [3][11][12] Monthly Sector and Key Listed Company Performance - In April, the electricity and public utilities sector rose by 1.5%, outperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.0% [13][14] Monthly Electricity Demand Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.80%, an increase of 3.50 percentage points compared to January-February [19][25] - The electricity consumption growth rate for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 9.90%, 3.80%, and 8.40% respectively, with residential electricity consumption growing by 5.00% [19][25] Monthly Electricity Production Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity generation was 7780.20 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%. The breakdown by source shows a 2.30% decrease in thermal power generation, while hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar power saw increases of 9.50%, 23.00%, 8.20%, and 8.90% respectively [4][46][47] Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have mandated that by the end of 2025, the electricity spot market should achieve basic nationwide coverage [4][8]

Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The second round of coke price increases has started, but the downstream steel mills have strong resistance, and the implementation after the May Day holiday is expected to face difficulties. The coke futures price is expected to maintain a downward trend under the expectation of crude steel production control. - The main - producing area coal mines have normal production and stable supply. The coking coal spot market is weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures and Spot Market Data - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2505 closed at 1574.0, up 5.0 from the previous day; J2509 closed at 1655T, down 9.0 from the previous day. The 2509 - contract coking profit was 250.1 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Coke Spot**: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. The Rizhao Port coke warehouse receipt price was 1469 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day. - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2505 closed at 887.5, up 7.0 from the previous day; JM2509 closed at 932.0, down 15.0 from the previous day. - **Coking Coal Spot**: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of the best - quality warehouse receipt in Shanxi was 946 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [2][3] Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamentals**: The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.4, up 4.23 from the previous day, a 1.76% increase. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.5, up 0.07 from the previous day, a 0.15% increase. The inventory of the full - sample independent coking plants decreased by 2.23%. - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: The daily average output of 110 coal - washing plants was 53.4, down 1.3 from the previous day, a 2.57% decrease. The inventory of 523 mines increased by 6.38%. [2] Important News - The State Council has issued policies related to the power market, aiming to achieve full coverage of the power spot market by the end of 2025 and relax market price limits in some areas. - Some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have received notices from major US retailers to resume shipments, and the new import tariff costs will be borne by US customers. - On April 29, the main port iron ore transactions increased by 30.8% month - on - month, and the construction steel transactions of 237 mainstream traders decreased by 7.3% month - on - month. [4][5] Trading Strategies - **Coke**: The second - round price increase is facing difficulties in implementation. The steel mills' iron - making output is high, and the coke demand is strongly supported. The coke enterprises' production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The futures price is expected to decline under the crude - steel production control expectation. - **Coking Coal**: The coal mines' supply is stable, the market trading activity is low, the inventory is increasing, and the short - term coal price is expected to be weakly stable. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6]