Core Viewpoint - The new energy storage industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning from a policy-driven model to a market-driven one, influenced by recent regulatory changes and technological advancements [5][7][41]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Dynamics - The 136 and 1502 documents signify a shift in energy pricing, impacting both generation and consumption sides, which will profoundly affect the new energy storage industry [2][41]. - The cancellation of mandatory time-of-use pricing for direct market participants aims to address how electricity pricing is connected to consumption, indicating a move towards more market-oriented pricing mechanisms [2][41]. - The acceleration of electricity market reforms is disrupting traditional business models, necessitating companies to redefine their roles within the energy ecosystem [6][41]. Group 2: Strategic Opportunities and Trends - The new energy storage sector is expected to experience significant growth, with global installed capacity projected to reach approximately 277 GWh in 2025 and 380 GWh to 392.76 GWh in 2026 [9]. - Key trends include the rise of large-capacity battery cells, grid-connected storage, long-duration storage, and the increasing importance of virtual power plants [3][10]. - The industry is moving towards a multi-scenario revenue model, shifting from simple arbitrage to comprehensive energy services, driven by the need for diversified revenue streams [16][41]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The evolution of battery technology is evident, with a shift from 314 Ah cells to 500/600 Ah cells expected by 2026, enhancing efficiency and performance [13][15]. - Innovations such as the high-safety series-connected grid storage solutions are being developed to address challenges like low inertia and weak grid conditions [12][40]. - The introduction of AI and digital solutions is becoming crucial for optimizing energy management and operational efficiency in the storage sector [18][20]. Group 4: Commercialization and Application Scenarios - The commercial storage market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected increase in installed capacity from 7.54 GWh to 18.96 GWh from 2023 to 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 35.98% [30]. - The focus is shifting from price competition to comprehensive energy solutions, with companies like Haier introducing integrated storage systems that enhance safety and performance [31][33]. - The virtual power plant model is emerging as a key strategy for commercial storage, allowing for enhanced revenue generation through dynamic pricing and resource aggregation [19][25]. Group 5: Challenges and Industry Evolution - The cancellation of time-of-use pricing is leading to a reevaluation of revenue models for commercial storage, with companies needing to adapt to fluctuating market prices [41][44]. - The industry faces challenges in operational capabilities and safety, necessitating a transition towards multi-revenue models and enhanced operational strategies [37][46]. - As the market evolves, companies must focus on building differentiated advantages through integrated solutions and advanced technology to remain competitive [48][49].

中关村储能产业技术联盟与自然资源保护协会最新发布的《分布式储能发展商业模式研究》报告（以下 简称报告）显示，2019年—2025年第三季度，我国分布式储能累计装机规模从570兆瓦快速增长至3638 兆瓦以上，增幅超5倍，呈现出强劲发展势头。 我国分布式储能已形成工商业配储、分布式光伏配储、绿电直连、台区储能、虚拟电厂、充换电站配储 六大主要应用场景。其中，工商业配储模式最为成熟，其收益主要来源于分时电价套利，江苏、广东、 浙江等经济发达省份因峰谷价差显著，走在装机规模前列。 在装机规模高速增长的背后，我国分布式储能产业正步入规模化发展与商业模式突破的关键时期。与此 同时，盈利模式单一、过度依赖政策、安全标准体系不完善等深层次问题也逐渐显现，行业亟须在构建 可持续市场化机制、推动技术融合创新、建立健全安全标准体系等方面实现系统化突破。 政策与市场双重驱动 分布式储能主要指分散布置在用户侧或配网节点附近的小型储能系统。与集中式储能相比，其单个项目 规模较小，开发复杂度较高，整体增速不及集中式储能。近年来，随着集中式储能市场竞争日趋白热 化，利润空间受到挤压，越来越多的市场参与者开始将目光投向开发潜力巨大的分布式储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The distributed energy storage industry in China is entering a critical period of scale development and breakthrough in business models, driven by rapid growth in installed capacity and the emergence of deep-seated issues such as reliance on single profit models and inadequate safety standards [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Applications - From 2019 to Q3 2025, China's cumulative installed capacity of distributed energy storage is expected to grow from 570 MW to over 3638 MW, representing an increase of more than five times [3]. - Six main application scenarios have emerged in the distributed energy storage sector: industrial and commercial storage, distributed photovoltaic storage, green electricity direct connection, substation storage, virtual power plants, and charging and swapping stations [3]. - The industrial and commercial storage model is the most mature, primarily generating revenue through time-of-use electricity price arbitrage, with provinces like Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang leading in installed capacity due to significant peak-valley price differences [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Drivers - The rapid development of distributed energy storage is attributed to a dual drive from policy guidance and market mechanisms, with new application scenarios like zero-carbon parks and data centers creating a strong demand for green electricity consumption [5]. - The advancement of electricity market reforms has opened new revenue channels for distributed energy storage, allowing participation in various market transactions such as electricity spot markets and frequency regulation [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Structural Issues - The commercial viability of industrial and commercial storage projects heavily relies on peak-valley price arbitrage, making the industry vulnerable to policy changes [11]. - Key structural challenges include high development costs, safety issues due to a lack of unified standards, and low-price competition leading to inconsistent product quality [12]. - The economic viability of typical 2-hour lithium battery storage projects is projected to decline, with investment recovery periods extending from 5.4 years to 9.1 years due to recent adjustments in peak-valley pricing policies [11]. Group 4: Future Development and Recommendations - The key to overcoming current challenges lies in transforming distributed energy storage from a "policy-driven arbitrage tool" to a "flexible resource with multiple values in the electricity market" [14]. - Future developments are expected to focus on technological advancements, market expansion, and the evolution of business models, with an emphasis on AI for better load and price forecasting [15]. - Recommendations include widening peak-valley price differences, improving demand response mechanisms, and establishing safety standards in the short term, while promoting deeper electricity market reforms and exploring capacity value in the medium to long term [16].

今天分享的是：自然资源保护协会：2025年分布式储能发展商业模式研究报告 报告共计：38页 分布式储能发展商业模式研究报告总结 在"双碳"目标推动下，分布式储能作为新型电力系统的关键环节，正快速发展。2019年至2025年前三季度，我国分布式储能累 计装机从570MW增长至3638MW，技术上以锂离子电池为主，占比92.77%，应用场景集中于工商业配储，占比68.70%，江苏、 广东、浙江等经济发达省份因峰谷价差大领跑装机规模。 国外方面，美国加州、德国、澳大利亚等国以户用储能为主，通过强有力的财税补贴、高居民电价及虚拟电厂参与电力市场推 动发展。美国有投资税收抵免和地方补贴，德国免除增值税并提供光储充补贴，澳大利亚给予税收减免，这些政策大幅降低了 初始投资，其户用储能收益稳定，可通过多种渠道获利。 国内分布式储能探索了工商业配储、分布式光伏配储等六大核心场景商业模式。工商业配储以合同能源管理为主要模式，收益 依赖峰谷价差套利；分布式光伏配储分源侧和荷侧，峰谷价差高的地区经济性更优；绿电直连项目分为并网型和离网型，广 东、浙江等地项目经济性较好；台区储能多为示范项目，以动态增容为主要用途；虚拟电厂收益来自需求 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - Carbonate lithium futures are oscillating at a high level. Affected by weak market sentiment, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures once fell below 100,000. The 05 - 01 spread on the disk narrowed slightly to 1,860. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 700 to 95,850. The discount of the trading market to the main contract widened to (-3,200, -1,000). The price of lithium spodumene ore increased by 40 to 1,260, the price of lithium mica ore increased by 80 to 2,700, the price of ternary materials increased by 200 - 250, the price of iron - lithium increased by 165 - 170, and the price of electrolyte remained flat. The upward price trend in the industrial chain is stable, but the inventory reduction in social warehouses has slowed down, and the fundamental support momentum has weakened. In the short term, attention should be paid to the previous high pressure level. However, with the rising prices in the industrial chain, carbonate lithium futures are expected to be more likely to rise than to fall [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures are in high - level oscillation. The main contract was affected by weak market sentiment and once fell below 100,000. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed slightly. The spot price of electric carbon, lithium ore, and some materials increased, while the electrolyte price remained unchanged. The price increase trend in the industrial chain is stable, but the inventory reduction in social warehouses has slowed down, and the fundamental support has weakened. It is expected that the futures are more likely to rise than to fall, and short - term attention should be paid to the previous high pressure level [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **M&A News**: Canadian lithium - mining developer Li - FT Power announced a binding agreement to acquire all issued shares of Australian listed company Winsome Resources for approximately $86.8 million. After the transaction, Winsome shareholders will hold about 35.3% of the merged company. Winsome's core asset is the Adina lithium - mining project, which is one of the top five lithium - resource projects in North America, with proven resources of 1.4 million tons of lithium oxide (grade 1.14%) and inferred resources of 16.5 million tons of lithium oxide (grade 1.19%) [12]. - **Distributed Energy Storage Report**: From 2019 to September 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic distributed energy storage (connected at a voltage level below 35kV and with a power scale ≤6MW) increased from 570MW to 3,638MW. Since 2024, the growth rate has accelerated significantly. Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang rank in the top three in terms of cumulative installed capacity. In different application scenarios, industrial and commercial energy storage accounts for 68.70%, followed by grid - side distributed energy storage at 8.30% and new energy - supported energy storage at 7.09%. Lithium - ion batteries account for 92.77% of the domestic distributed energy - storage installed capacity [12].

Core Insights - The distributed energy storage industry is experiencing explosive growth driven by national policy support and increasing demand for renewable energy, with projections indicating that by 2024, new energy storage installations will account for over 40% of the global total [1][6] - The industry is transitioning from policy-driven growth to market-driven and economic viability, with a clear delineation of the supply chain from upstream materials to downstream applications [1][5] Industry Overview - Distributed energy storage systems are deployed close to energy consumption points, enabling local production, storage, and consumption of electricity, which helps stabilize the output fluctuations of renewable energy sources [2][4] - The industry is characterized by various technologies, including lithium-ion batteries and mechanical storage systems, and is categorized based on application scenarios such as user-side, grid-side, and power-side storage [2][3] Policy Landscape - A series of national policies have been introduced to support the development of distributed energy storage, including guidelines for enhancing grid peak-shaving capabilities and plans for high-quality development of new energy storage manufacturing [5][6] Supply Chain Structure - The supply chain of the distributed energy storage industry is well-defined, with upstream focusing on core materials and components, midstream on system integration and EPC services, and downstream covering applications across generation, grid, and user sides [5][6] Current Market Dynamics - The industry has seen a significant increase in installations, with projections for 2024 indicating a cumulative installed capacity of 73.76 million kilowatts, representing an annual growth rate exceeding 130% [6][7] - The market is dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries, which hold nearly 90% market share due to their mature technology and cost advantages [6][7] Application Scenarios - The application landscape is evolving, with grid-side storage becoming the main contributor to new installations, expected to account for 60% of the market by 2025 [7][8] - Distributed photovoltaic systems are also gaining traction, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 370 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, significantly enhancing the energy structure transition [7][8] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by leading companies such as CATL and BYD dominating the manufacturing sector, while others like Sungrow and Huawei lead in PCS technology [8][9] - The competitive landscape features a mix of large enterprises and smaller firms focusing on niche markets, with significant clusters in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta [8][9] Future Trends - The industry is moving towards diversified, market-driven, and intelligent development, with applications expanding beyond simple energy storage to integrated solutions that enhance energy efficiency and reliability [9][10] - Technological advancements are expected to shift from a lithium-dominated landscape to a more diversified approach, incorporating long-duration storage technologies [10][11] - The business model is transitioning from policy-driven to market-oriented, with distributed energy storage expected to participate more actively in electricity markets and auxiliary services [11]

Core Insights - Shanxi Electric Power successfully completed the integration testing of the 15-minute and 5-minute real-time electricity spot market operation from September 1 to October 20, 2025, marking a shift to a higher frequency and more precise market operation [1] - Since its launch in April 2021, Shanxi's spot market has traded a cumulative electricity volume of 1.62 trillion kilowatt-hours, effectively optimizing the allocation of electricity resources through price signals [1] - The adjustment to a 5-minute clearing period allows for quicker and more accurate reflection of instantaneous supply and demand changes in the grid, providing clearer price signals for market participants [1][2] Market Development - The adjustment is in response to the rapid growth of renewable energy in Shanxi, with installed capacity increasing by 128.75% since the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching 76.84 million kilowatts by September 2025, accounting for nearly 50% of the province's total installed capacity [2] - The previous 15-minute clearing period was inadequate for the new power system's real-time balancing requirements due to the volatility of renewable energy output and rapid changes in supply-demand relationships [2] - The upgrade involved comprehensive enhancements to nine core modules of the real-time market model management, ensuring compatibility of the clearing, measurement, and settlement systems [2] Technological Advancements - The implementation of a 5-minute clearing mechanism facilitates the participation of new market entities such as virtual power plants and distributed energy storage, allowing them to adjust their charging and discharging strategies based on more frequent price signals [2] - The average deviation rate of real-time power balancing has decreased by 20% after the system's upgrade, enhancing the precision and stability of grid operations [2] - Shanxi Electric Power aims to continue advancing electricity market construction and optimize resource allocation on a larger scale [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the steady growth in global electric vehicle sales, with commercial vehicle electrification emerging as a new growth point, and rapid expansion in the engineering machinery market, alongside a significant increase in global ship battery shipments and high domestic penetration rates for ship electrification [1] Investment Highlights - Scenario Expansion: The demand for lithium battery applications is rapidly expanding into diverse fields such as electric two-wheelers, low-altitude economy, robotics, and RVs. In the first half of 2025, domestic electric two-wheeler lithium battery sales are expected to surge over 40% year-on-year, with industrial and consumer-grade drone lithium batteries also experiencing rapid growth, projected to achieve a CAGR of 18.08% from 2025 to 2030. Global robot shipments are expected to grow by over 39% year-on-year in 2024, and RV lithium battery sales are projected to see a CAGR of 8.55% from 2025 to 2031 [2] - Technology Upgrade: Attention is drawn to leading companies accelerating the industrialization of solid-state batteries, with a continuous increase in patent applications for solid-state batteries in China, where leading firms hold a significant number of patents and have clear mass production plans [2] - Cycle: The report notes a price recovery and improvement in profitability, with cell prices rebounding and operating rates increasing. Since 2025, cell prices have gradually bottomed out, and the overall operating rate of energy storage battery companies in the first half of 2025 is expected to maintain above 50%, significantly exceeding previous years and showing a gradual upward trend [2] Storage and Power Battery Growth - Storage: The report emphasizes the rapid growth of distributed energy storage, with lithium iron phosphate batteries being the primary technology route in electrochemical storage. Global energy storage batteries are mainly used for centralized storage, with distributed storage growing rapidly. China has the largest installed capacity for energy storage, with the strongest growth. Demand for storage batteries is expected to reach 1384.00 GWh by 2028, with a CAGR of 39.07% from 2024 to 2028, and the share of distributed storage is expected to rise to 40.02% by 2028 [3] - Power: The focus is on the electrification of commercial vehicles, engineering machinery, and ships, with global electric vehicle sales steadily increasing. The report anticipates that power battery shipments will reach 2859.62 GWh by 2028, with a CAGR of 26.91% from 2024 to 2028, driven by rapid growth in light-duty, engineering machinery, and ship power batteries [3] - Consumer: The global consumer battery market is characterized by significant technological drivers, diverse application demands, and favorable policy environments. Total consumer battery shipments are projected to reach 55.13 billion units by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 25.54% from 2023 to 2029, primarily driven by the continuous development of downstream industries such as medical devices and automotive electronics, as well as the rise of emerging fields like the low-altitude economy [3] Market Structure - The report indicates that the market landscape is stabilizing, with resources concentrating towards leading companies, while second-tier firms seek differentiated competition. The market share of leading global power battery companies remains stable, while the second tier is growing rapidly, leading to a decline in industry concentration [4] - The report notes that the highest costs are associated with positive electrodes, with lithium iron phosphate shipments dominating. The share of artificial graphite in negative electrodes is high, and silicon negative electrode shipments are expected to break through [5] - The report highlights that the electrolyte market faces significant overcapacity issues, with an oligopoly effect becoming apparent, and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of internal competition [5] - The report also mentions that the market for separators is becoming increasingly concentrated, with leading companies benefiting from cost control and technological upgrades to enhance profitability [5] - The report concludes that the manufacturing equipment competition landscape is clear, with domestic manufacturers possessing global competitiveness, and emphasizes the importance of R&D efforts and technological upgrades among domestic companies [5]

Summary of the Conference Call for 德业股份 Industry Overview - The global household energy storage market is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of approximately 20% over the next five years, with emerging markets experiencing even higher growth rates [2][4] - The industrial and commercial energy storage sector will also support 德业股份's long-term growth, particularly in regions with low per capita electricity generation and photovoltaic power ratios, such as Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East [2][4] Key Growth Markets - Significant growth is anticipated in Africa and Southeast Asia by 2025, with Africa's growth expected to exceed three times due to local electricity shortages [2][6] - Indonesia plans to achieve a distributed solar storage capacity of 320GW over the next five years, with overall distributed energy storage growth in Southeast Asia approaching double [2][6] - India and Pakistan are expected to maintain growth in 2025, driven by policy and local supply chain factors, with 德业股份 achieving approximately 30% growth in Pakistan in recent months [2][7][8] - The Middle East market shows demand differentiation, with wealthy countries like Israel and UAE driving energy transition through policy, while war-affected countries like Lebanon and Syria exhibit off-grid demand [2][9] - Eastern Europe is expected to see a decline in Ukraine's demand by 2025, but countries like Bulgaria and Romania are experiencing good growth due to reduced reliance on Russian electricity [2][10] Competitive Advantages - 德业股份 possesses three core competitive advantages in emerging markets: product development tailored to different countries, partnerships with local major distributors, and high self-manufacturing rates [4][13] - The company has a strong cost control strategy, leveraging over 30 years of experience in sheet metal manufacturing to maintain high self-manufacturing rates and reduce costs [17][18] Business Performance and Projections - The industrial and commercial energy storage business is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to double from approximately 20 billion yuan in 2024 to 40 billion yuan in 2025, potentially accounting for 40%-50% of total revenue [4][19][20] - Overall, 德业股份's revenue for 2025 is anticipated to reach 35 billion yuan, with a profit of approximately 15 billion yuan achieved in the first half of the year [23] Emerging Products and Strategies - In addition to industrial storage, 德业股份 is developing new products such as balcony micro-storage and solar air conditioning, which will complement its home appliance business [21][22] - The company employs a sales strategy that includes forming exclusive agency relationships with local distributors and utilizing brand partnerships to expand market reach [15][16] Market Outlook - The global distributed energy storage market is expected to continue expanding, with emerging markets likely to become significant growth segments in the coming years [12] - The company is well-positioned to maintain its market share and profitability in the household storage sector while benefiting from the growth of new business lines [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the public announcement of a bidding plan for a distributed energy storage project in Tengzhou Economic Development Zone, highlighting the procurement of energy storage devices for local enterprises [2][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project is located in the Tengzhou Economic Development Zone of Zaozhuang City and involves the procurement of distributed energy storage equipment for 37 enterprises [3][6]. - The bidding content includes the configuration of approximately 494 units of 500KW/1MWH lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems [3][6]. Group 2: Financial Estimates - The estimated investment for the project is approximately 40 million yuan [4][6]. - The expected date for the release of the bidding announcement is September 2025 [4][6].