Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets slightly declined, and global oil product inventories slightly increased. [7] - The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. [7] - On the supply side, the Kurdish oil field was attacked, with about 200,000 barrels per day of production at risk of interruption. [7] - Fundamentally, global oil product inventories slightly increased, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. [7] - After Independence Day, US gasoline apparent demand dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. This week, global refinery profits strengthened on a week - on - week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. [7] - In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week - on - week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations. [7] - During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have shown a fluctuating pattern recently. [7] - In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Price Data - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.20, BRENT decreased by $0.24, and DUBAI decreased by $0.07. [3] - SC crude oil prices increased by 15.20 yuan, and OMAN decreased by $0.08. [3] - Other related products such as domestic gasoline, domestic diesel, Japanese naphtha, and Singapore fuel oil also showed corresponding price changes. [3] 2. Daily News - The third round of Russia - Ukraine negotiations will be held in Istanbul. [3] - Iran may hold nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. [4][5] - A new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks. [4] - The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, and imposing other sanctions on Russian banks and energy facilities. [5][6] - Angola plans to increase oil exports to 1.03 million barrels per day in September, and an Iraqi oil field was attacked by a drone. [6] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day, and domestic production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day. [6] - US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91%. [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. [6] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07%. [6] - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. Chinese refinery production showed a decrease in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries both declined on a week - on - week basis. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's recent focus on India's oil refining sector is a reaction to the unintended consequences of its sanctions against Russia, highlighting the complexities of global oil trade and the potential economic repercussions for the EU itself [3][8]. Group 1: EU's Sanctions and India's Role - The EU has imposed sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine conflict, leading to a significant increase in India's oil imports from Russia, which rose from 5 million tons in 2022 to 90 million tons by 2024, accounting for 38% of India's crude oil imports [5][8]. - India not only imports Russian crude oil but also refines it and exports finished products, such as diesel and aviation fuel, back to Europe, with approximately 150,000 barrels per day being exported to the EU in the first half of 2024 [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications for the EU - The EU's attempt to cut ties with Russian oil has inadvertently led to a situation where it relies on India, which profits from buying discounted Russian oil and selling refined products at higher prices to Europe [7][10]. - The EU's refined oil inventory is currently about 7% lower than the five-year average, raising concerns about fuel shortages if sanctions on Indian refineries are enforced [8][12]. Group 3: India's Resilience and Future Outlook - India's oil trade is diversified, with buyers in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, making it less vulnerable to EU sanctions [10]. - The established logistics and financial channels between India and Russia for oil trade are robust, suggesting that sanctions may not effectively disrupt this relationship [10][12]. - The potential for increased economic independence in India could arise if the EU imposes strict sanctions, leading to a reevaluation of India's economic ties with the West [10][12].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 18 日 原油：多单持有，三季度或再挑战 80 美元/桶 1. 初步计划显示，安哥拉将把 9 月份的石油出口提高到 103 万桶/日。 2. 金十期货 7 月 17 日讯，新加坡企业发展局（ESG）：截至 7 月 16 日当周，新加坡燃料油库存下 降 132.3 万桶，至两周低点 2338.5 万桶。 3. 金十数据 7 月 17 日讯，俄罗斯能源部在一份新闻稿中说，国内市场上所有主要类型的汽车燃 料供应充足。汽油和柴油的储备水平接近历史最高水平，这确保了国内市场的不间断供应。观 察到的价格动态是由于季节性因素，包括需求增长。俄罗斯能源部正在不断监测燃料市场的情 况。在零售领域，有稳定的需求覆盖，交付量与地区需求相对应。该行业已经为季节性需求增 长做好了充分准备。 4. 印尼生物柴油消费量已达 742 万千升。 5. EIA 天然气报告：截至 7 月 11 日当周，美国天然气库存总量为 30520 亿立方英尺，较此前一周 增加 460 亿立方英尺，较去年同期减少 1560 亿立方英尺，同比降幅 4.9%，同时较 5 年均值高 1780 亿立方英尺，增幅 6.2%。 6. ...

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - The European Council demands an immediate ceasefire in Gaza by Israel [3] - Israeli officials have halted the entry of food and supplies into northern Gaza [3] - Israeli military is accused of intentionally firing at civilian aid points in Gaza, which high-ranking officials deny [3] Group 2: Iran-Israel Relations - Israel claims to have struck over 900 Iranian targets during the conflict, resulting in the deaths of 11 scientists [3] - Israeli Defense Minister instructs the military to develop an execution plan against Iran after 12 days of conflict, focusing on maintaining air superiority and preventing nuclear weapon development [3] - The Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson states that military actions against Iran have met or exceeded established goals [3] Group 3: U.S. and Iran Dynamics - U.S. Energy Secretary asserts that sanctions against Iran's oil remain effective [3] - Iran extends flight bans in its western and northwestern regions until Saturday afternoon [3] - Iran claims to have arrested several suspected spies [3] Group 4: Regional Military Actions - Israeli military attacks Hezbollah's weapons and military facilities in southern Lebanon [3] - Lebanese sources report that Israeli airstrikes in the south resulted in one death and 11 injuries [3] - U.S. Senate rejects a proposal to limit President Trump's military authority against Iran [3] Group 5: Broader Military Context - Trump states that he has halted all work related to lifting sanctions on Iran and may consider airstrikes if Iran continues its enrichment activities [3] - Houthi leaders in Yemen claim to have launched 309 ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and drones at Israel since mid-March [3] - The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that radiation levels in the Gulf region remain normal following damage to Iranian nuclear facilities [3] - Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer is scheduled to visit the White House for discussions [3]

美国能源部长：对伊朗的石油制裁仍然有效。 ...

原油日报 | 2025-06-27 美国或考虑放松伊朗石油制裁 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨32美分，收于每桶65.24美元，涨幅为0.49%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨5美分，收于每桶67.73美元，涨幅为0.07%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.46%，报498元/桶。 2、美国石油高管在废除欧洲环境法规的努力中赢得了特朗普的支持。美国石油巨头和他们的游说者敦促特朗普和 及其内阁成员利用与欧盟正在进行的贸易谈判，推动取消《欧洲绿色协议》中的两项主要气候法律。化石燃料生 产商抓住了美欧贸易争端的契机，多年来欧盟一直试图使欧盟经济摆脱对化石燃料的依赖，并遏制排放。美国公 司抵触的法律之一是欧盟去年通过的《企业可持续发展尽职调查指令》（CSDDD），该指令旨在强制年收入超4.5 亿欧元（约合5.22亿美元）的企业，厘清并遏制其运营及全球供应链中的人权侵犯行为与气候影响。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大，出口出现自疫情爆发以来的最大降幅，进口几乎没有变化。美国商务部数据 显示，商品贸易逆差增长11.1%，至966亿美元，高于市场预期。商 ...

Group 1 - Israeli military destroyed a building in southern Lebanon, linked to a Hezbollah member who was killed by an Israeli drone a week prior [3] - The building was reportedly used by Hezbollah to observe Israeli forces [3] Group 2 - President Trump indicated that the U.S. may relax sanctions on Iranian oil, while maintaining the maximum pressure policy [5][7] - Trump mentioned that the U.S. and Iran are set to hold talks next week, with a potential agreement in sight [7] - The core U.S. demand remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons [7] Group 3 - Russian defense ministry reported intercepting and shooting down 50 Ukrainian drones in various regions, including 23 in Kursk and 11 in Rostov [8] - Russian air force reportedly dropped bombs on Ukrainian positions in Dnipro region, although the specific date of the video release is unclear [8] - Ukrainian air force reported shooting down 24 drones since the evening of the previous day [10]

Kpler：伊朗石油产量将下降，受美国制裁而非地区紧张局势驱动 金十数据6月13日讯，Kpler分析师Homayoun Falakshahi表示，伊朗的石油产量预计将开始下降，但原因 是美国加大制裁力度，而不是与以色列的紧张关系升级。Kpler预计未来几周伊朗的石油产量将减少35 万桶/日。相比之下，此前的预测是每天减少50万桶。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Neutral; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [4] Core View - The impact of sanctions on sensitive oil is weak, and the supply of sensitive oil is unlikely to be interrupted unless Sino-US relations significantly improve. The core issue is when and to what extent Saudi Arabia will increase production [3] Market News and Key Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's July light crude oil futures rose 95 cents to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; July Brent crude oil futures rose 81 cents to $64.90 per barrel, a 1.26% increase. SC crude oil's main contract rose 0.84% to 457 yuan per barrel [2] - OPEC+ has agreed to use 2025's oil production level as the baseline for 2027. It will authorize the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum sustainable production capacity. The next JMMC meeting is on November 30. On Saturday, 8 OPEC+ members may agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [2] - In the week ending May 23, US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.236 million barrels, API Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 342,000 barrels, API gasoline inventory decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - As of the week ending May 26, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased by 13% to 17.894 million barrels, a four-month low [2] - Asian refiners expect Saudi Arabia to cut the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in July to a six-month low [2] - As of the week ending May 24, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 41,602 kiloliters, gasoline inventory increased by 40,289 kiloliters, kerosene inventory increased by 71,204 kiloliters, and diesel inventory decreased by 97,562 kiloliters. The refinery's operable capacity utilization rate was 79.70% [2] Investment Logic - Trump's threat to increase sanctions on Iran and Russia led to an oil price rebound, but the impact of sanctions on sensitive oil is weak. Unless Sino-US relations improve, the supply of sensitive oil is unlikely to be interrupted. OPEC is expected to accelerate production in July, and the key is Saudi Arabia's production increase [3] Strategy - Short-term: Neutral; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [4] Risks - Downside risks: Reaching of the Iran nuclear deal, macro black swan events [5] - Upside risks: Tightening of supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large-scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is implementing sanctions on companies importing Iranian oil to exert pressure on Iran's economy [1] Group 1: Sanctions Impact - The sanctions aim to limit Iran's oil revenue, which is crucial for its economy [1] - Companies involved in importing Iranian oil will face financial penalties and restrictions [1] Group 2: Industry Response - The oil industry may experience increased volatility due to these sanctions [1] - Companies may need to reassess their supply chains and sourcing strategies in light of the new sanctions [1]