票息久期拥挤度指数

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品种久期跟踪:品种久期的进与退
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 09:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of May 16, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.21 years and 2.72 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.09 years, 3.52 years, and 2.21 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.33 years, 3.51 years, and 1.50 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at lower historical quantiles and insurance company bonds and leasing company bonds at higher historical quantiles [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it decreased but slightly increased this week compared to last week, currently at the 53.7% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Full - variety Term Overview - The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.21 years and 2.72 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.09 years, 3.52 years, and 2.21 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.33 years, 3.51 years, and 1.50 years respectively [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased, currently at the 53.7% level since March 2021 [12]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovered around 2.21 years. The durations of Sichuan provincial and Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds exceeded 6 years, while the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds significantly shortened. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in certain regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level cities, Jiangsu district - level counties, Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, Beijing district - level counties, Guangdong district - level counties, Sichuan province, Henan province, Jiangxi prefecture - level cities, Anhui province, Anhui prefecture - level cities, Shaanxi province, Guangxi province, and Yunnan province exceeded 90%. The duration of Jiangsu district - level county urban investment bonds approached the highest level since 2021 [3][16]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week, generally around 2.72 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry significantly shortened to 1.30 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.17 years. The trading durations of industries such as food and beverage were at lower historical quantiles, while those of public utilities, transportation, steel, and non - ferrous metals were at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of bank perpetual bonds slightly shortened to 3.52 years this week, at the 63.8% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.09 years, at the 91.2% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of general commercial financial bonds lengthened to 2.21 years, at the 78.2% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 78.4%, 58.7%, 49.5%, and 93.5% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, and leasing company bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week [4][26].
久期策略的性价比:品种久期跟踪
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-20 12:43
Group 1: Report Core View - As of April 18, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.95 years and 2.15 years respectively, both at relatively high levels since March 2021 [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index slightly declined, currently at the 45.7% level since March 2024 [12]. Group 2: All - Variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds and industrial bonds' trading terms decreased slightly from the previous period but remained at high levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.69 years, 2.97 years, and 1.93 years respectively. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.26 years, 1.79 years, 3.72 years, and 1.36 years respectively [2][10]. Group 3: Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The average duration of urban investment bonds continued to decline slightly, with the weighted trading term around 1.95 years. Sichuan provincial and Beijing district - county - level urban investment bonds had a trading duration close to 4 years, while the durations of Guangdong prefecture - level and Shandong provincial urban investment bonds shortened significantly. The duration historical quantiles of Zhejiang district - county - level, Beijing district - county - level, Shandong prefecture - level, Henan prefecture - level, and Jiangxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds exceeded 90%, with Beijing district - county - level and Shandong prefecture - level approaching the highest since 2021 [3][17]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading term of industrial bonds shortened from the previous period, generally around 2.15 years. The marginal trading term of the commercial retail industry shortened significantly to 1.39 years. Industries such as transportation and commercial retail were at relatively low historical quantiles, while industries like public utilities, food and beverage, building materials, and pharmaceutical biology were above the 90% historical quantile [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of bank perpetual bonds slightly shortened to 2.97 years, at the 36.30% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds significantly shortened to 3.69 years, at the 67.4% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.93 years, at the 33.9% historical quantile, lower than the same period last year [3][24]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 88.2%, 18.8%, 3.3%, and 84.9% historical quantiles respectively. The duration of leasing company bonds slightly increased from last week [4][27].