Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: May 22, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - On May 21, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2510 oscillated, while the main contract of stainless steel futures 2507 oscillated upward. Currently, the fundamental contradictions of rebar and hot-rolled coil are small, and market sentiment has improved. In the short term, the futures prices will maintain an oscillating trend [5][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Trends - On May 21, the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in the spot market remained mostly unchanged, with only the hot-rolled coil price in Nanjing dropping by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts showed a divergent downward trend, and the daily MACD red bars of both contracts shrank [8] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Currently, the output of the five major steel products has slightly declined, inventory has increased, and the demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil has dropped from its peak. In terms of downstream demand, there are multiple signs of recovery in the real estate market. The steel demand in the automotive, shipbuilding, and machinery industries has generally maintained a high growth trend. Macroscopically, the Sino-US tariff situation has eased, the expectation of rush exports has increased significantly, and the expectation of downstream demand has recovered. In the future, the short-term futures prices will maintain an oscillating trend [10] 3.2 Industry News - In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.019 million tons, remaining flat year-on-year; from January to April, the cumulative crude steel output was 345.351 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. From January to April 2025, Hebei ranked first with an output of 73.5503 million tons, followed by Jiangsu with 41.978 million tons and Shandong with 24.3396 million tons [11] - According to Mysteel, in May, HBIS Group's tender price for 75B ferrosilicon was set at 5,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from 5,950 yuan/ton in April, with an inquiry price of 5,700 yuan/ton [11] - As of May 19, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 146.2763 million tons, a decrease of 2.5825 million tons from the previous Monday [11] - On May 21, the capacity utilization rate of 104 electric furnace plants across the country surveyed by Fubao Information was 40.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous week. The daily consumption of scrap steel was 245,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons from the previous period, a growth rate of 3.1%. The daily consumption of electric furnaces has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the daily consumption level of 104 electric furnaces has reached a new high in nearly 18 months [11] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national average daily pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and the May contracts [14][15][24][27][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Short - term bullish factors have been realized, and the upward driving force is slowing down [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in low - level oscillations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Due to the resonance of the black - metal sector and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, they are in weak oscillations [2][13]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in bottom - level oscillations [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: With the increase in coal mine inventories, it is in a weak and oscillating state [2][22]. - **Logs**: In a weak oscillation [2][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures closed at 725.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.35%). The import and domestic ore prices had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also showed different fluctuations [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (down from 3.6% last month), and the 1 - year LPR was 3% (down from 3.1% last month) [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: RB2510 closed at 3,058 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.59%); HC2510 closed at 3,202 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.37%). Spot prices in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also fluctuated [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: South Korea continued to impose anti - dumping duties on stainless steel sheets from China, etc. In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 8602 million tons, with daily output down 4.3% month - on - month. From January to April, Hebei had the highest crude steel output [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices of different contracts decreased. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide had different changes, and the price spreads also fluctuated [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In April 2025, China's silicon - manganese exports and imports, manganese ore imports data were released. South32 resumed Australian manganese ore exports, and NMT announced the June 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: JM2509 closed at 838.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.77%); J2509 closed at 1407.5 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (-1.44%). Spot prices and basis, spreads had different changes [18]. - **Price and Position Situation**: Northern port coking coal quotes and May 20 CCI metallurgical coal index were provided. On May 20, for JM2509, long positions increased by 6841 hands, short positions increased by 6888 hands; for J2509, long positions increased by 750 hands, short positions increased by 582 hands [18][19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: ZC2506 had no trading, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were given. On May 20, for ZC2506, long and short positions both decreased by 0 hands [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts had different changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, China's real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [29].