Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Affected by the domestic economy and global trade frictions, steel demand is weak. Although there is a certain restocking demand before the May Day holiday, concerns about the future still exist. Although domestic policies are temporarily supportive but not aggressive, the probability of subsequent efforts still exists. The industry supply and demand has entered a seasonal weakening state. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the post - holiday rebound ends [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On April 29, black - series commodity futures except iron ore fell across the board. The rebar closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 1.21%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,210 yuan/ton, down 1.26%; the iron ore main contract closed at 709 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Market Analysis - International trade: On April 24, South Korea imposed a four - month temporary anti - dumping duty on hot - rolled carbon or alloy steel medium and heavy plates originating from China, with a tax rate of 27.91 - 38.02% until August 23, 2025. Brazil made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on color - coated sheets originating from China and India but did not recommend imposing a temporary anti - dumping duty. Canada launched an anti - dumping investigation into carbon steel wires and alloy steel wires originating from or imported from China, India and other countries. Multiple countries' increase in import tariffs on Chinese steel and anti - dumping investigations have impacted the "price - for - volume" model of net exports, and manufacturing demand has been revised down due to tariff adjustments [1]. - Domestic policy: After the recent Politburo meeting, no super - expected policies were released, and China will enter a policy window period before the May Day holiday [1]. - Supply side: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 long - process steel mills reached 57.58%, a five - month high. Steel mills remained actively producing. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.77% to 84.33%, the iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 1.45% to 91.6% month - on - month, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 42,300 tons to 2.4435 million tons, the highest since October 2023, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 6.83%. The expectation of crude steel reduction has re - emerged. Some short - process steel mills are expected to cut production due to losses. Recently, long - process steel mills have been converting to producing billets with better profits, and the output of rebar in some steel mills has been diverted, resulting in a tight supply of certain specifications, and the short - term supply pressure has been alleviated, improving the supply - demand pattern [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Jm2509 contract closed at 947.0, down 0.94% from the previous trading day's close, and in the night session, it closed at 939.5, down 0.79% from the day - session close. The J2509 contract closed at 1562.0, down 0.26% from the previous trading day's close, and in the night session, it closed at 1557.5, down 0.29% from the day - session close [1] - In the May steel - using survey for the manufacturing industry, in the steel structure industry, sample enterprises' willingness to stock up actively was weak, with raw material inventory down 1.69% month - on - month and daily consumption down 1.56% month - on - month; in the machinery industry, sample enterprises' raw material inventory was down 5.98% month - on - month, and available days were down 3.09% month - on - month; in the automotive industry, sample enterprises' raw material inventory was down 1.10% month - on - month and daily raw material consumption increased slightly by 2.16% month - on - month [1] - Recently, there have been rumors of crude steel production cuts, which are negative for the coking coal and coke markets. The second round of price increases started last Friday, but currently, the end - users do not accept the price increases. With coke enterprises' profits gradually improving, it is unlikely that this round of price increases will be implemented before the holiday. Downstream coking coal inventory is mostly kept at a low level, and most of the auction prices have fallen. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate before the holiday [1] 3. Summary of Related Contents Market Review - The Jm2509 contract closed at 947.0, down 0.94% from the previous trading day's close, and in the night session, it closed at 939.5, down 0.79% from the day - session close. The J2509 contract closed at 1562.0, down 0.26% from the previous trading day's close, and in the night session, it closed at 1557.5, down 0.29% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - In the May steel - using survey for the manufacturing industry, in the steel structure industry, sample enterprises' willingness to stock up actively was weak, with raw material inventory down 1.69% month - on - month and daily consumption down 1.56% month - on - month; in the machinery industry, sample enterprises' raw material inventory was down 5.98% month - on - month, and available days were down 3.09% month - on - month; in the automotive industry, sample enterprises' raw material inventory was down 1.10% month - on - month and daily raw material consumption increased slightly by 2.16% month - on - month [1] - At the regular press conference on April 28, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that according to information, the two heads of state have not had a phone call recently, and China and the US have not conducted consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue [1] Market Logic - Recently, there have been rumors of crude steel production cuts, which are negative for the coking coal and coke markets. The second round of price increases started last Friday, but currently, the end - users do not accept the price increases. With coke enterprises' profits gradually improving, it is unlikely that this round of price increases will be implemented before the holiday. Downstream coking coal inventory is mostly kept at a low level, and most of the auction prices have fallen. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate before the holiday [1] Trading Strategy - As the May Day holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market to avoid market sentiment fluctuations during the holiday [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market has rebounded, but the recovery of rebar demand lacks sustainability, and the production of hot-rolled coils will slow down. The iron ore market will fluctuate, and the price has certain support in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets will decline, and the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [1][2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The rebar surface demand has declined month-on-month, the recovery lacks sustainability, the output is basically flat, the inventory continues to decline, and the absolute value is still at a low level. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are stable, the inventory continues to decline, the iron water output rises to a high level, and the resumption of production will slow down significantly in the future. The downstream infrastructure and manufacturing industries have improved, the decline of real estate sales and new construction has narrowed marginally, but the overall situation is still weak. The Sino-US tariff policy will continue to be debated, and the expectation of crude steel reduction has heated up again. The market has stabilized, but the rhythm is still fluctuating [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market fluctuates, and the basis has narrowed recently. The global iron ore shipment has increased month-on-month and is stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and Brazil have improved both year-on-year and month-on-month, while the shipments from non-mainstream countries have fallen to a low level. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded and is at a relatively strong level in the same period. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the iron water output has increased significantly to a high level. The important domestic meeting has not introduced any unexpected policies, and the news related to production restrictions has dragged down the iron ore market again, but the short-term impact on real demand is limited. It is expected that the iron ore market will fluctuate, and the price has certain support in the short term, but attention should be paid to the pressure of the iron water output reaching the peak and falling back in the future [2] Coke - The coke price has declined in a fluctuating manner. The second round of price increases for coking has been rejected, the bullish sentiment has declined, and the daily output has continued to increase slightly. The overall coke inventory has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and the trade has no purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, the downstream iron water output continues to increase significantly, and the steel billet export orders are good. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports in the future [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has declined in a fluctuating manner. The output of coking coal mines has gradually recovered, but the output this week has still decreased slightly due to the impact of some coal mines. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, the transaction price has loosened, the terminal inventory is still high, and there is no additional replenishment demand during the May Day holiday. The total coking coal inventory is basically flat, the inventory pressure at the production end remains high, and the downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just-in-time procurement. The market is at a discount, and the price is affected by inventory pressure and tariff fluctuations. It is expected to be weak and fluctuate mainly [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price is weak due to the uncertain tariff policy. The national manganese ore port inventory has continued to increase. According to the freight forwarder data, the inventory at Tianjin Port has increased by more than 300,000 tons this week. The spot quotation and transaction price of manganese ore have continued to decline this week, and the forward manganese ore quotation has also declined. The iron water output has increased significantly, the silicomanganese supply has continued to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, which has continuously suppressed the price. The manganese ore inventory has started to increase trendily. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price is weak due to the uncertain tariff policy. The iron water output has increased significantly, the export demand has generally maintained a month-on-month downward trend, but the marginal impact is small. The metal magnesium output has decreased, the secondary demand is average, and the overall demand has declined marginally. The ferrosilicon supply has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, the on-balance-sheet inventory has increased, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]