M1-M2 同比剪刀差维持上行趋势，红利相对成交额逐步走高 —— 红利风格投资价值跟踪（2025W16） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 19 日 [于明明 Table_ First 金融工程与金融产品首席 Author] 分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 周金铭 金融工程与金融产品分析师 执业编号：S1500523050003 联系电话：+86 18511558803 邮 箱：zhoujinming@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 金工研究 [TableReportType] 金工专题报告 [Table_A 于明明 uthor 金融工程与金融产品 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 周金铭 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523050003 联系电话：+ ...

Macro Perspective - Recent US Treasury yields have declined due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 68.7% probability of a cut in June 2025 and 67.3% in July 2025[4] - Domestic M2 growth year-on-year was 7.0% in February 2025, unchanged from the previous value, while the M1-M2 differential was -6.9%, slightly down from -6.6%[4] Valuation Metrics - The absolute PETTM for the CSI Dividend Index is at the 90.25th percentile over the past three years, down from 95.59% a month ago, indicating a high absolute valuation[4] - The relative PETTM is at the 79.71st percentile, up from 58.88% a month ago, suggesting a moderately high relative valuation[4] Price and Volume Analysis - 46.48% of the CSI Dividend Index component stocks are above the six-month moving average, down from 55.61% a month ago, indicating a decrease in price congestion[4] - The absolute trading volume is at the 78.10th percentile over the past three years, up from 74.10% a month ago, suggesting a recovery in trading activity[4] Fund Flows - The net inflow into dividend ETFs this week was 34.90 billion CNY, with a total net inflow of 41.03 billion CNY over the past month, indicating strong investor interest in dividend strategies[4] - The exposure of equity mutual funds to dividend strategies has increased to 0.45 in Q4 2024, the highest level since 2019[4] Summary and Outlook - The macro model suggests that the dividend style may underperform relative to growth styles in the near term, but potential improvements in M2 and M1-M2 differential could enhance the outlook[4] - The report indicates a potential for absolute and excess returns in the dividend sector as the technology sector begins to correct and policies are gradually implemented[4]