成长板块走低，创业板成长ETF、深成长ETF大成分别跌3%、2.79%。半导体设备板块回调，半导 体设备ETF、半导体设备ETF、科创半导体ETF、通信ETF、通信ETF华夏、5GETF博时、通信设备ETF 分别跌2.77%、2.75%、2.73%、2.52%、2.40%、2.33%和2.20%。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com A股三大指数早盘集体下挫，截至午盘，沪指跌0.17%，深成指跌0.68%，创业板指跌1.46%，北证 50指数跌0.74%，沪深京三市半日成交额15966亿元，较上日缩量532亿元。全市场超2300只个股上涨。 板块题材上，小金属、算力租赁、云计算、煤炭开采加工、跨境支付、钢铁、光伏设备、AI应用、旅 游及酒店板块涨幅居前；造纸、PCB、CPO、存储芯片、电池、光刻机、PET铜箔板块跌幅居前。 ETF方面，AI应用回暖，创业板软件ETF华夏、 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying trading behaviors behind market movements rather than reacting to superficial price changes [1] - Many investors fall into the trap of making decisions based solely on market trends, leading to losses when they chase after rising stocks or sell off during declines [1][2] - Quantitative data can reveal four core trading behaviors: bullish dominance, profit-taking, bearish dominance, and short covering, which help in understanding the true market intentions [2][5] Group 2 - The article illustrates that even when a stock appears to be on an upward trend, it may be dominated by profit-taking behavior, indicating potential price adjustments ahead [5][11] - It highlights that profit-taking does not necessarily lead to a market decline, as large funds may realize profits during upward trends, similar to a store clearing inventory during a sale [6][12] - The article also points out that negative news does not always result in market downturns; sometimes, it can create opportunities for investors who recognize the underlying buying activity [12][14] Group 3 - The core value of quantitative thinking is to help investors avoid subjective judgments based on emotions and news, instead relying on objective data to understand market behaviors [15][17] - By utilizing quantitative data, investors can maintain a rational perspective and avoid making impulsive decisions based on market fluctuations [16][17] - The article encourages a shift from emotional trading to a more analytical approach, which is essential for responsible capital management [17]

岁启新元，万象更新。值此辞旧迎新之际，我谨代表嘉实基金全体员工，向长期以来信任与支持我们的广大投资者、合作伙伴，致以最诚挚的 感谢与新春祝福！ 我们坚信，以投资者为本、坚持客户最佳利益导向，是公募基金持续健康发展的源泉。为此，我们持续夯实"平台型、一体化、多策略"投研体 系，升级与扩容投资能力，完善长期考核机制；我们主动优化产品管理，审慎调整个别产品定位；同时，我们积极推动数据化赋能，强化平台 化作战能力。 嘉实基金着力推动研究、产品、投资、销售与服务的深度融合，将持续构建一个始终以客户利益为出发点的价值闭环。 研究，是这个闭环的源点。价值发现，源于深植产业的基本面研究，需要勤奋奔赴一线、深刻理解变化。2025年，嘉实投研团队便完成超1600 次深入调研，持续迭代认知、夯实体系。我们坚持深度研究，力争前瞻性地定义产业长期增长的新轨迹——发现那个由技术进步与需求变革驱 动的"新贝塔"，并构建起覆盖被动、主动及增强的一体化产品矩阵，形成嘉实在关键产业投资的纵深图谱。 产品，是深度研究转化为投资工具的关键桥梁，也是服务投资者财富管理需求的直接载体。其中，我们聚焦两大支柱：一是打造产业机遇与客 户需求双轮驱动的综合解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in the software and services sector is primarily due to market reassessment of terminal value driven by "AI disruption," rather than a deterioration in short-term fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market has already reflected a compression of terminal price-to-earnings ratios by approximately 10%-20% [1] - If the compression extends to 30%, stock prices in the sector could fall back to mid-2023 lows or even lower, indicating a potential long-term evaporation of terminal value by about one-third [1] - Major software ETFs are experiencing a surge in trading volume and implied volatility, indicating a phase of panic selling [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Extreme trading behaviors typically signify a climax in selling, suggesting a potential for a technical rebound in the short term, but this does not imply that long-term risks have been mitigated [1] - The reassessment of terminal value due to AI will persist, shifting the software industry from broad-based gains to a phase of significant individual stock differentiation [1] - The market will increasingly focus on companies' ability to integrate AI, with those enhancing efficiency through AI likely to continue growing, while those with business models easily replaceable by AI may face long-term pressures [1] - The current market is entering a more volatile bull market phase, with software stocks undergoing the most intense adjustments within this context [1]

Group 1 - The estimated profit for today is +70,000 (assets of 5.5 million), with a total profit of +119,000 across two accounts, resulting in a profit-loss ratio of +1.49% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology index has rebounded after a 20% correction from its peak, indicating a potential upward trend [1] - The recent surge in AI applications has led to significant gains, with the Media ETF rising over 4% and the Software ETF increasing over 3% [5] Group 2 - In January, there were 546,300 new fund accounts opened, representing a month-on-month increase of 123.8% and a year-on-year increase of 168.72% [6][9] - The increase in new fund accounts suggests a significant influx of retail investor capital into public funds [6] - The actual increase in fund shares will be assessed when the fund association releases data at the end of February [7][9] Group 3 - The surge in new fund accounts may be influenced by short-term arbitrage opportunities, particularly related to silver LOF [8] - If new account openings continue to rise in February, it would indicate a shift of household savings into financial products [9] - Conversely, a decline in new account openings would suggest that many new accounts were opened for short-term trading rather than long-term investment [9] Group 4 - The A-share market temperature is at 71.36, up 1.6 degrees from the previous trading day, while the Hong Kong market temperature is at 54.41, up 1.9 degrees [10][11] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI is positively impacting the content industry by increasing content supply and fostering creativity, which benefits sectors like gaming and video [1] - Concerns regarding large models disrupting creative tools, content developers, and UGC platforms are addressed, emphasizing that deep content like games involves complex scenarios, where creator ecosystems and user stickiness serve as barriers for UGC platforms [1] - Companies that possess high-quality data assets can overcome production bottlenecks and advance in the market, highlighting the importance of data in content development [1] Group 2 - The integration of AI into workflows will be complex, but external specialized software companies are expected to be more efficient than building in-house software stacks [1] - Complex scenarios and data remain the primary competitive advantages in the industry [1] - The proliferation of multimodal AI applications and increased token consumption will drive growth in AI cloud services, benefiting "water sellers" [1] Group 3 - The promotion of AI applications is anticipated to stimulate advertising budgets [1] - The software ETF (515230) tracks the software index (H30202), which reflects the performance of publicly listed companies in software development and related services [1] - The index includes companies across various segments such as operating systems, application software, and cybersecurity [1]

软件ETF（515230）跟踪的是软件指数（H30202），该指数主要反映软件行业上市公司的整体表现，成 分股覆盖了从事系统软件、应用软件开发及相关服务的企业，以体现软件行业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。该指数具有较高的成长性和技术导向性特征，是衡量信息技术领域特别是软件行业发展状况的重 要指标。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券指出，近期Anthropic发布AI插件工具，引发市场对传统软件商业模式被颠覆的担忧，导致美 股软件概念股抛售。这背后是对以SaaS为首的软件行业长期增长逻辑与高利润率是否仍然成立的根本性 怀疑。通用大模型通过垂类插件，能够以更低的成本、更直接的方式完成过去需要专业软件才能完成的 核心任务，对软件行业的定价逻辑和收入模型形成严重威胁。当前的剧烈波动更应被理解为一场深刻的 结构性调整，而非行业基本面的全面崩坏。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Equipment and AI - The core logic driving the rise of the semiconductor equipment sector is the demand for advanced process expansion, particularly in the production of high-end chips like 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm, where China has not yet achieved full autonomy [1] - The domestic semiconductor industry has made some breakthroughs, particularly in GPU design, with several local companies expected to go public by the end of 2025, indicating a gradual technological advancement [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) is primarily driven by the expansion needs of advanced processes, which is a key factor in its performance [1] Group 2: Storage Chip Price Increases - The price increase of storage chips has created a chain reaction, leading to urgent expansion needs among related companies, which is reflected in the performance of the semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) [2] - Despite the absence of a pure storage ETF, the semiconductor equipment ETF serves as a relevant investment vehicle due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in storage chips, which has been driving prices up since 2025 [2] - The recent performance of TSMC, which raised its earnings forecast and capital expenditures, has positively influenced market sentiment towards the semiconductor equipment sector [2] Group 3: Communication Equipment and Light Modules - The communication ETF (515880) is highlighted as a potential investment focus, particularly in light modules, which are expected to experience a supply-demand imbalance in 2026 due to anticipated upgrades in chip architecture [3] - The expected transition to "in-cabinet" light modules by 2027, which could see market sizes 4-5 times larger than current external models, presents significant growth opportunities [4] - The communication ETF's performance is tied to the expansion of production capabilities in response to the anticipated demand for upgraded light modules [3][4] Group 4: AI Applications and Market Dynamics - The AI application sector is currently fragmented, with significant areas being robotics and smart vehicles, both of which are not showing substantial growth in 2025 [4][6] - The gaming sector is identified as having a more stable fundamental outlook within AI applications, benefiting from normalized game license issuance and the potential for blockbuster products [8][10] - The gaming ETF (516010) has shown significant growth, with a more solid fundamental base compared to other AI application sectors, although it lacks the short-term catalysts seen in other areas [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of broad - based indexes was differentiated. The science and technology sector generally rose, with more declines on Monday and Tuesday and most sectors rising with heavy trading volume from Wednesday to Friday. The main line of science and technology is more focused and clear, and it is the sector where the consensus of funds on the liability side is concentrated and the best elastic offensive variety [4][11]. - Although broad - based ETFs continued to have net outflows this week, industry ETFs were in a net - buying state. The science and technology sector still had substantial net buying, and the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous sector was significant [5]. - The margin trading and short - selling transaction volume decreased significantly, and the margin trading and short - selling balance first decreased and then increased. The demand for hedging reflected by stock index futures weakened after Wednesday [6][9]. - Foreign capital actively participated as a right - side force in the New Year's opening market, and its participation degree even exceeded that of margin trading and short - selling. It has become a more active incremental force in the short - term market [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs A - share Market - **Index Performance**: This week, the performance of broad - based indexes was differentiated. The CSI 300 fell by 0.6%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes rose by 0.8% and 1.1% respectively. The CSI 500 and the micro - cap index performed well, rising by 4.3% and 5.2% respectively. The performance of technology stocks was also differentiated, with the ChiNext Index falling by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rising by 2.6%, and the CSI 1000 rising by 2.9% [14]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of broad - based indexes decreased significantly. The average daily trading volume decreased from 3.5 trillion to 2.8 trillion. Specifically, the trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased from over 3 trillion from Monday to Thursday to about 2.7 trillion, and rebounded to over 3 trillion on Friday [19]. A - share Industry - **Industry Performance**: This week, the top five rising industries were building materials (8.82%), basic chemicals (6.76%), steel (5.78%), petroleum and petrochemicals (5.76%), and non - ferrous metals (4.92%). The top five falling industries were banks (- 4.07%), media (- 2.96%), communications (- 2.77%), non - bank finance (- 2.57%), and computers (- 2.52%) [26]. - **Science and Technology Sub - sectors**: Since 2026, areas such as storage, semiconductors, and HBM have had relatively large excess returns compared to the Wind All - A Index. The excess returns of commercial aerospace and optical modules, which performed well in December, have declined or even turned negative. This week, the science and technology sector generally rose, with more declines on Monday and Tuesday and most sectors rising with heavy trading volume from Wednesday to Friday [28][32]. ETF Funds - **Broad - based ETFs**: Index ETF funds continued to have large - scale net outflows, with large - cap index ETFs having more outflows. The average daily net outflow of the CSI 300 ETF was over 14 billion, the average daily net outflow of the SSE 50 ETF was 7.3 billion, and the average daily net outflow of the CSI 1000 ETF was 6.2 billion. The SSE Composite Index ETF had a slight net inflow [37]. - **Industry ETFs**: Although broad - based ETFs still had net outflows this week, industry ETFs were in a net - buying state. The non - ferrous sector had a significant pulsed inflow of funds, and the science and technology sector still had substantial net buying. Science and technology sub - sectors represented by software and satellites continued to rank high in terms of net inflow [44]. Leveraged Funds - **Margin Trading and Short - Selling Transaction Volume and Balance**: After the implementation of the new margin trading and short - selling regulations on January 19, the proportion of margin trading and short - selling transactions decreased from 11.2% to 9.9%. The margin trading and short - selling balance first decreased and then increased, with the average balance this week being about 2.72 trillion, slightly higher than last week's 2.70 trillion [49]. - **Broad - based Index Margin Trading and Short - Selling**: From Monday to Tuesday this week, except for the SSE 50 and the STAR 50, the leveraged funds of most broad - based index components had net outflows; from Wednesday to Thursday, the leveraged funds of the CSI 300, SSE Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 index components turned into net inflows. Overall, the net inflow of index margin trading and short - selling this week was less than that of last week [54]. - **Industry Margin Trading and Short - Selling**: On Monday and Tuesday this week, most industries de - leveraged, while on Wednesday and Thursday, most industries re - leveraged. Non - bank finance, communications, transportation, and comprehensive industries had relatively large increases in the proportion of margin trading net buying to trading volume [59]. - **Stock Market Value and Margin Trading and Short - Selling**: This week, stocks of all market - value gradients added leverage, with stocks with a market value of over 500 billion adding leverage to a greater extent [61]. - **Popular Stocks and Margin Trading and Short - Selling**: Popular stocks in electronics, power equipment, national defense and military industry, and non - ferrous metals mostly added leverage, while popular stocks in the media mostly de - leveraged. The proportion of leveraged funds in the trading volume of the top 35 popular stocks decreased this week [64][68]. Quantitative Funds - **Quantitative Index Enhancement Excess Returns**: Since January, the excess returns of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index enhancement have fallen to negative values, with the medians being - 1.14% and - 0.07% respectively [72]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: This week, the basis of stock index futures declined compared to last week but still remained at a relatively high level. From Wednesday to Friday, the basis of near - month stock index futures turned into a premium, indicating a weakening of hedging demand after Wednesday [78]. Main Funds - **Broad - based Index Main Funds**: The main funds of the CSI 300, ChiNext, and STAR Market continued to have net outflows this week, but the outflow slowed down significantly compared to last week. The CSI 300 had a large - scale net outflow from Monday to Tuesday and then turned into a net inflow on Wednesday and Thursday [83]. - **Industry Main Funds**: This week, the main funds flowed out of most industries, with the largest outflows in electronics, followed by computers, communications, and power equipment. The outflows were relatively large on Monday and Tuesday. The main funds flowed into banks, building materials, and coal [91]. North - bound Funds - **Participation Degree**: Foreign capital actively participated as a right - side force in the New Year's opening market, and its participation degree even exceeded that of margin trading and short - selling. The trading volume proportion of north - bound funds increased from 11.0% before the New Year's Day to 11.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points, while the proportion of margin trading and short - selling only increased from 10.6% to 11.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [93]. - **Trading Volume and Proportion**: This week, the total trading volume of north - bound funds decreased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing from 401.1 billion to 338.5 billion, and the proportion of A - share trading volume increasing from 11.61% to 12.10%. Since late December, the trading activity of north - bound funds has significantly rebounded [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of more than 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the A - share market style has changed from unilateral upward movement to high - frequency rotation. It is better to hold the core main line firmly than to chase the market in high - frequency rotation. The AI industry chain remains the market consensus, and the current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end" [3] - The acceleration of industry rotation is a benign spread of funds from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [3] - The net inflow of industry ETFs has increased, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears". It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration strategy [3] Summary by Directory Market Focus Always on the Main Line, AI Industry Chain Remains the Consensus - From the perspective of trading volume proportion, industries such as electronics, computers, and national defense and military industry have always been at the core of the market. Even with short - term disturbances, the electronics sector's trading volume proportion remains at a high level of 17% - 20%, and that of national defense and military industry has gradually recovered, indicating strong capital stickiness [3][8] - The current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end". The high concentration of the chip structure proves that the AI industry chain is an investment main line with in - depth consensus, and high activity provides strong resilience and upward elasticity [3][8] Liquidity Spillover, the Advantage of "Technology + Prosperity" Portfolio Highlights - As the market enters the adjustment period, liquidity begins to spread from high - consensus varieties to prosperous industries with catch - up logic. When the technology main line adjusts, funds flow to industries such as chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and banks [10] - This shows that it is not the ebb of the main line but the natural spread of liquidity from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [11] - Since the beginning of the year, some sectors have shown high weekly and year - to - date excess returns. The strategy of holding the AI bottom position and combining bull - market varieties has a higher winning rate than blind rotation [12] ETF Fund Flows: Driven by the Resilience of Prosperity and Technology - Although the broad - based ETFs are still experiencing net outflows (the weekly outflow of CSI 300ETF is 724.2 billion yuan), the industry ETFs are in a state of net buying, with a cumulative net inflow of 78.82 billion yuan [13] - There has been a significant pulsed inflow of funds into the non - ferrous sector without siphoning other sectors. The technology sector also has a large net inflow, especially software and satellite sub - industries, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears" [14] It's Better to Be Part of the Wind Than to Chase It - The main line of this bull market is clear, with technology being the best offensive variety. It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration and hold firmly [3][17] - One end of the "dumbbell" is the technology main line, including storage, equipment, advanced packaging, AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robots. The other end is the prosperous cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals, and also pay attention to stable sectors like home appliances and transportation [3][17]