来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇1月15日｜BMI报告称，由于经济增长仍受到有韧性的国内需求支撑，且通货膨胀保持在可控水 平，马来西亚央行可能在整个2026年将政策利率维持在2.75%不变。该机构称，预计2026年经济增长将 从2025年估计的4.6%放缓至约4.1%。该机构指出，由于薪资上涨和现金发放，目前预计2026年平均通 胀率为1.9%，略高于此前预期的1.7%，但仍处于受控状态。BMI目前预计，美联储的终端利率将从此 前预测的3.50%下调至3.25%。该机构称，在马来西亚央行按兵不动的背景下，收益率差应会朝着有利 于林吉特的方向变动。BMI目前预计，到2026年底美元兑马来西亚林吉特汇率将达到4.0，此前的预期 为4.10。 ...

褐皮书显示，本周期，大多数银行报告消费者支出出现轻微至温和增长，这主要归因于假日购物季；近 期就业状况基本保持不变，12个地区中有8个地区报告招聘活动未见变化；绝大多数地区价格以温和速 度增长，仅有两个地区报告价格小幅上涨。关税引发的成本压力是所有地区普遍存在的问题。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 今日周四(1月15日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于88.88一线下方，今日开盘于93.57美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报87.76美元/盎司，下跌5.81%，最高触及93.57美元/盎司，最低下探86.37美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储褐皮书显示，在12个联邦储备区中，有8个地区的整体经济活动以轻微至温和的速度增长，3个地 区报告没有变化，1个地区报告温和下降。 这比过去三个报告周期有所改善，此前大多数地区报告经济活动变化不大。褐皮书显示，对未来活动的 展望略显乐观，多数地区预计未来数月将实现小幅至适度增长。 4小时级别，技术面显示，白银价格已连续跌破关键上行趋势线与20周期移动平均线(MA，87.11)，强化 了短期看跌倾向。 不过，RSI处于中线上方且已离开超卖区 ...

在经济展望方面，韩国央行预计第四季度GDP增速将低于0.2%，但指出"强劲的半导体行业有望支撑经 济增长"，并认为"出口将保持有利"，全年增长预测面临上行风险。通胀方面，央行重申"预计将逐步降 至2%的目标水平"。 关于房地产市场，央行再次警示"首尔及其周边地区的房价风险依然存在"。李昌镛坦言，高利率并非抑 制房价的有效工具，需配合其他结构性措施。 货币政策委员会内部意见亦显分化：五位委员倾向短期内维持利率不变；一位委员仍不排除未来三个月 内降息的可能性，并主张"短期内降息的大门应是敞开的"。 此外，韩国央行宣布将面向中小企业的专项贷款计划延长六个月，至2026年7月底，以缓解融资压力。 （文章来源：新华财经） 韩国央行15日宣布维持基准利率在2.50%不变，符合市场普遍预期。行长李昌镛在会后记者会上表示， 当前货币政策需在支持经济复苏与应对金融稳定风险之间取得平衡，并强调仅靠提高利率"无法平息房 价上涨"。 根据韩国央行发布的政策声明，决策层一致通过此次利率决议。值得注意的是，声明中删除了此前"为 降息留有空间"及"决定是否以及何时实施任何进一步的基准利率下调"等表述，释放出政策立场趋于谨 慎的信号。 李昌 ...

美东时间周三，美股三大指数连续第二个交易日下跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.09%报49149.63点，纳指跌1%报23471.75点，标普500指数 跌0.53%报6926.6点。 盘面上，大型科技股普跌，谷歌A跌0.04%，苹果跌0.42%，英伟达跌1.44%，特斯拉跌1.79%，微软跌2.4%，亚马逊跌2.45%，Meta跌 2.47%。 银行股全线走低，富国银行跌逾4%，花旗、美国银行跌超3%，摩根士丹利跌逾1%，摩根大通跌近1%，高盛跌0.58%。 航空股普跌，波音跌0.81%，美国航空、达美航空、西南航空跌超1%，美联航跌逾3%。 芯片股涨跌不一，博通跌超4%，ARM、拉姆研究、迈威尔科技跌逾2%，英特尔涨逾3%，超威半导体涨逾1%。 能源股集体上涨，康菲石油涨逾4%，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、斯伦贝谢、西方石油涨逾2%。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天在汇市尾市收于99.135，与前一交易日基本持平。 消息面上，据新华社消息，美国白宫14日宣布，从15日起对部分进口半导体、半导体制造设备和衍生品加征25%的进口从价关税。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月14日，美联储发布全国经济形势调查报告（也称"褐皮书"）。 ...

当地时间周三，美联储发布的褐皮书显示，美国大多数地区的经济活动在近期有所增长，同时就业状况 保持稳定，但通胀压力并未完全消退。 这也为美联储在短期内维持利率不变、继续观察数据变化提供了真实的依据。 备受关注的褐皮书，是美联储通过12个地区联储，收集了自2025年11月中旬以来各地商界领袖、企业联 系人的一手信息后编制而成。 调查范围覆盖了美国主要经济领域，可以说是观察美国经济真实状况的"晴雨表"。 经济温和扩张 褐皮书明确指出，自2025年11月中旬以来，美国大部分地区的经济活动以"轻微至温和"的速度加快。 部分依赖消费和服务业的地区，受益于居民消费小幅回升，零售、餐饮等行业出现回暖迹象。 而依赖制造业和出口的地区，由于关税政策的持续影响，复苏步伐相对滞后。 知情人士透露，虽然整体订单量有所增加，但增长幅度远低于预期，企业依然不敢轻易扩大生产规模， 主要还是以消化现有订单和库存为主。 此外，非金融服务需求总体保持稳定或略有增加。银行状况普遍报告为稳定或改善，信用卡、房屋净值 贷款和商业贷款需求有所增加。 在报告该行业的多数地区，住宅房地产销售、建筑和贷款活动有所放缓。 农业状况基本未变，只有亚特兰大区报告因出 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.08%, Nasdaq down 1%, and S&P 500 down 0.53%. Major tech stocks like Oracle and Broadcom fell over 4%, while Intel rose over 3% [5] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity grew at a slight to moderate pace in 8 out of 12 districts, with a more optimistic outlook for future activity [5] - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI crude oil down 1.61% to $59.95 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.53% to $64.47 per barrel [5] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced a tax refund policy for individuals selling their homes and purchasing new ones within a year, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [7] - A meeting was held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to address the issue of "price wars" in the new energy vehicle industry, emphasizing the need for fair competition and quality-driven innovation [8] - The Ministry of Finance conducted a video conference to promote a package of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand through fiscal and financial collaboration [9] Group 3 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney arrived in Beijing for his first official visit to China in eight years [10] - The Shanghai government announced a plan to implement key technology research projects in the field of autonomous driving, focusing on the development of advanced hardware and software solutions [10] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [11] Group 4 - Ctrip announced it will cooperate with regulatory authorities following an investigation into alleged monopolistic practices [16] - Guangzhou Chali Group addressed reports of a 200 million yuan salary arrears, stating that most employee salaries have been paid, and they are working on settling outstanding payments for former employees [17] - Boeing reported that it secured nearly 1,200 commercial aircraft orders in 2025, surpassing Airbus for the first time since 2018 [18] Group 5 - Huawei is projected to reclaim the top position in China's smartphone market by 2025, with an estimated shipment of 285 million units, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 0.6% [20] - The Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau is investigating Sunflower's restructuring plan for misleading statements regarding its actual production capacity and business model [28] - Haidilao announced a change in CEO, with founder Zhang Yong returning to the role, indicating a strong intent to address challenges faced by the company [30]

(本文来自第一财经) 褐皮书称，在美联储的十二个辖区中，有八个辖区的整体经济活动呈现小幅至温和增长；三个辖区报告 无变化，一个辖区报告小幅下降。相较于前三个报告周期（当时多数辖区报告基本无变化），本次情况 有所改善。 在本周期内，大多数银行反映消费者支出实现小幅至温和增长，这主要归功于假日购物 季。数个辖区还指出，高收入群体的支出更为强劲，主要体现在奢侈品、旅行、旅游以及体验式活动方 面的支出有所增加。 ...

全球经济动态与货币政策展望：澳洲住宅建设强劲反弹，美联储立场偏稳，日本制造信心走弱与美国通胀回落 澳洲住宅建设回暖释放内需修复信号 澳大利亚住宅建设活动在去年年底显现出明显回温迹象。最新数据显示，2025年11月，经季调后的住宅建筑许可数量出现大幅反弹，单月增幅超过15%，创 下近四年来的高位。这一结果不仅完全确认了此前的初步估算，也成功扭转了前一个月的回落走势，显示房地产相关活动正在重新积聚动能。 从结构上看，本轮反弹并非偶发，而是由多个细分领域共同推动。其中，多单元住宅（不含独立房屋）的审批量表现尤为强劲，成为拉动整体数据回升的核 心力量；与此同时，独立住宅审批也出现温和改善。按地区划分，新南威尔士、维多利亚和昆士兰等人口与经济大州贡献突出，显示需求回暖具有较强的广 泛性，尽管部分资源型地区仍存在分化。 日本制造业信心承压但分化明显 日本企业端情绪在年初出现回落。最新的Reuters短观调查显示，制造业景气判断指数降至半年低点，反映出外部需求走弱正在对部分产业形成持续压力。 原材料与重工业相关板块首当其冲，钢铁、化工等行业普遍提到海外订单减少与价格竞争加剧。 不过，行业间的差异同样值得关注。相比对全球周期 ...

（原标题：渣打银行预测2026年越南经济继续保持高速增长） 关于增长动力，渣打银行专家认为，制造业仍然是吸引外资的主要行业，并在越南经济中发挥着关 键作用。此外，随着房地产市场逐渐复苏，外资流入房地产行业的情况有所增加。就资本流动前景来 说，目前形势喜忧参半。虽然去年外资到位量呈正增长，但新注册资本却出现停滞迹象。主要原因是投 资者暂时持观望态度，等待越美贸易谈判结果。一旦越南达成明确有利的贸易协定，新的注册外资流入 量会强劲回升，进一步增强其中期增长前景。 但渣打银行表示，贸易和关税仍然是越南经济发展最大的风险因素。预计越南与美国政府就原产地 规则和转运问题进行的谈判将对今年贸易前景产生重大影响。谈判结果不仅影响出口，还会影响投资情 绪和外国资本流动。渣打银行认为越美贸易谈判预计将在年中左右完成。 《越南经济》1月14日报道，展望2026年，渣打银行继续对越经济前景保持乐观。渣打银行预测， 2026年越南的GDP增长率约为7.2%，尽管这一数字低于政府设定的10%目标，但考虑到越南已连续多年 保持强劲增长势头，这一数字仍非常可观。值得注意的是，越南继续被评为亚洲增长最快的经济体，在 区域增长放缓的趋势下，其 ...

Group 1: Economic Growth Production - Power plant daily consumption is higher than the same period last year. On January 13, the average daily consumption of 6 major power generation groups was 826,000 tons, a 2.7% decrease from January 6. On January 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.278 million tons, a 9.6% increase from December 30 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has generally recovered moderately. On January 9, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 2; the capacity utilization rate was 86.1%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from January 2. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills decreased by 3.7 percentage points [5][16]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On January 8, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 58.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January 1; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 65.9%, a 2.4 - percentage - point decrease from January 1 [5][18]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline. On January 8, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 90.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 1, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 57.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 8 [5][18]. Demand - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 13, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 152,000 square meters, a 44.9% decrease from the same period in December, a 41.8% decrease from January of last year, and a 40.8% decrease from January 2024 [5][23]. - The retail growth of the auto market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][26]. - Steel prices are oscillating strongly. On January 13, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by +0.6%, +1.3%, - 0.3%, and +0.1% respectively compared to January 6 [5][33]. - Cement prices have hit a new low. On January 13, the national cement price index decreased by 1.1% compared to January 6. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, performing slightly better than the national average [5][34]. - The rebound strength of glass prices has increased. On January 13, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,119 yuan/ton, an 0.8% increase from January 6 [5][39]. - The container shipping freight rate index has shown a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. On January 9, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][43]. Group 2: Inflation CPI - The rebound strength of pork prices is weakening. On January 13, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.3% increase from January 6. Since January, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 2.0% month - on - month [5][47]. - The agricultural product price index has declined moderately. On January 13, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.9% compared to January 6. Since January, the index has increased by 4.0% year - on - year but decreased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][52]. PPI - Oil prices have reached the highest level since October. On January 13, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 61.2 dollars/barrel respectively, an 8.4% and 7.0% increase from January 6 [5][55]. - Copper and aluminum prices have continued to rise. On January 13, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.1% and 2.3% respectively compared to January 6. Since January, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum have increased by 10.4% and 7.0% month - on - month respectively [5][59]. - The domestic commodity index has changed from a decline to an increase month - on - month. On January 13, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 1.2% compared to January 6, while the CRB index decreased by 1.5% [5][59].