来源：中国新闻网 英国国家统计局19日发布的官方数据显示，该国消费者价格指数(CPI)自今年5月以来首次回落，从9月 的3.8%降至10月的3.6%。 英国媒体称，此次通胀数据为英国央行12月降息增添更多可能性。本月初，英国央行曾暂停此前的季度 降息步伐，维持4%的利率水平不变，当时货币政策委员会以5票支持维持利率、4票主张降息的投票结 果形成决议。但随着通胀出现明确回落，市场对降息的预期持续升温，高盛、瑞银等机构已调整预测， 预计英国央行将在12月实施25个基点的降息。 路透社援引经济学家观点指出，通胀率目前已步入持续下降轨道，叠加经济增长放缓及下周预算案可能 收紧财政的背景，英国央行12月降息的条件已具备。 值得注意的是，英国通胀率仍显著高于央行2%的目标水平。英国财政大臣里夫斯在数据公布后强调， 生活成本仍是全英家庭的沉重负担。她表示将于11月26日公布的年度预算中坚守财政审慎原则，避免出 台加剧通胀的税收与支出政策，通过针对性措施进一步缓解生活成本压力。 英国国家统计局首席经济学家格兰特·菲茨纳指出，10月燃气与电力价格涨幅放缓是拉低整体通胀的核 心因素。同时，酒店价格当月下降2.2%，较去年同期0. ...

市场回顾 日韩股市11月18日开盘下跌，国际金银 价格开盘后跳水 美股三大指数11月17日集体收跌，大型 科技股多数下跌 个股资讯 强生公司以30.5亿美元收购Halda Therapeutics 新 3 社 主管主办 上海渗养系 (O)中国证券网 UTFF 2025 11/13 大型科技股多数下跌，苹果、Meta、甲骨文跌超1%，微软、亚马逊小幅收跌。 中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.21%。阿特斯太阳能跌超15%，小鹏汽车跌超10%，禾赛科技跌逾6%；晶科能源涨超13%，金山云涨近9%， 大全新能源涨超3%，阿里巴巴、华住集团涨超2%。 谷歌DeepMind与谷歌研究院联合推出 天气预报模型WeatherNext 2 国际 宏 观 美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为42.9% 加拿大10月份通胀率降至2.2% 【市场回顾】 北京时间11月18日，日韩股市双双下跌。日经225指数跌1.02%，韩国综合指数低开1.10%。 国际金银价格开盘后跳水。伦敦现货黄金盘中失守4030美元/盎司；伦敦现货白银跌破50美元/盎司重要关口。 隔夜，美股市场遇冷，三大指数集体收跌。截至收盘，道指跌1.18%，报46 ...

受国防支出增加影响，欧盟财政赤字率预计将从2024年的3.1%升至2027年的3.4%。欧盟债务占GDP比 重预计将从2024年的84.5%升至2027年的85%；欧元区债务比重则预计从约88%升至90.4%。 报告指出，在全球范围内，贸易壁垒已升至历史高位，与2025年春季预测相比，欧盟对美出口面临的平 均关税水平有所提高。持续存在的贸易政策不确定性仍在拖累经济活动，关税和非关税限制对欧盟经济 增长的抑制作用将超出预期。任何地缘政治紧张局势进一步升级都可能加剧供应冲击。 新华财经布鲁塞尔11月17日电（记者康逸张馨文）欧盟委员会17日发布2025年秋季经济展望报告显示， 受美国加征关税预期推动出口激增影响，欧盟经济保持增长。尽管外部环境严峻，但未来欧盟经济预计 将以温和速度继续扩张。 报告预测，2025年欧盟实际国内生产总值（GDP）将增长1.4%，欧元区增长1.3%；2026年欧盟经济将 增长1.4%，欧元区经济增长1.2%，较此前预测有所下调。欧委会今年5月预测，2026年欧盟经济将增长 1.5%，欧元区经济增长1.4%。 报告说，欧元区整体通胀率预计将继续下降，从2024年的2.4%降至2025年的2 ...

Core Insights - Thailand's inflation rate decreased by 0.72% year-on-year in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline in 2023 [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to falling prices, primarily due to government measures that reduced fuel and electricity prices, as well as lower costs for fresh food [1] - Despite the overall decline in inflation, the core consumer price index remains positive, indicating sustained domestic demand [1] Economic Indicators - The Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce, Nattapong Jiralertpong, stated that the core inflation rate has not decreased, particularly in the prepared food and entertainment sectors, reflecting ongoing domestic demand [1] - Employment rates are reported to be at normal levels, further supporting the notion that the economy is not experiencing deflation [1] - The Ministry of Commerce forecasts that the inflation rate may approach zero by the fourth quarter of 2025, with potential for negative values in certain months [1]

Core Insights - Thailand's export growth has slowed to its lowest level in nearly a year due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, with August exports increasing by only 5.8% year-on-year, reaching $27.7 billion [1] - The inflation rate in August decreased compared to previous predictions, indicating a slowdown in exports to the U.S., Thailand's largest market [1] Export Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, Thailand's export value grew by 13.3%, totaling $223 billion, while imports increased by 11.3% to $225 billion [1] - Monthly export values for the remaining four months of the year are expected to range between $24 billion and $24.5 billion [2] Market Dynamics - Exports to major markets such as the U.S., China, and Southeast Asia showed growth, with exports to China increasing by 5.9% [2]

Economic Growth Forecast - Malta's central bank predicts real GDP growth will slow from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025, with further decline to 3.3% by 2027 [1] - The bank's report indicates a slight downward adjustment for 2025's GDP growth compared to previous forecasts, while projections for the following two years remain largely unchanged [1] Key Growth Drivers - Private consumption is expected to remain the main driver of GDP growth throughout the forecast period (2025-2027), despite a decline from recent peaks [1] - Investment is anticipated to continue recovering in the first two years of the forecast period [1] - Net exports are projected to contribute positively to GDP growth, primarily due to service trade, although this contribution will be significantly less than domestic demand [1] Employment and Unemployment Trends - Employment growth is expected to gradually slow, decreasing from 5.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, and further to 2.4% and 2.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to decline to 2.7% by the end of the forecast period [1] Wage Growth and Inflation - The labor market is expected to remain tight, which will be a key factor driving wage increases [2] - Wage growth is forecasted to slow from 6.3% last year to 4.4% in 2025, with further declines to 3.7% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - The average annual inflation rate is expected to reach 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.4% last year, primarily reflecting a decrease in food and service inflation [2] - Inflation rates for 2026 and 2027 are projected to further decline to 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively, driven mainly by a decrease in service inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates that overall inflation is nearing 2%, but core inflation remains elevated, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [1] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by approximately 1% this year, reflecting a slowdown in economic activity [1] - Factors such as uncertainty, tariff measures, and reduced immigration are expected to hinder economic growth [1] Monetary Policy - A moderately tight monetary policy is in place, allowing for the assessment of new data as it becomes available [1] - Inflation rates are anticipated to gradually decline to 2% over the next two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank's decision to lower interest rates is primarily driven by the decline in inflation rates [1] Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank is responding to a significant decrease in inflation, which has influenced its monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed that the market will gain confidence in the decline of inflation rates, and this confidence will gradually increase if there are no tariff measures in place [1] Group 1 - The market's confidence in decreasing inflation rates is expected to rise [1] - The absence of tariff measures is a key factor that could enhance this confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that maintaining the current labor market and a declining inflation rate justifies keeping interest rates unchanged [1] Group 1 - The current labor market conditions are deemed stable and supportive of the decision to hold interest rates steady [1] - A continuous decrease in the inflation rate is a critical factor influencing the Fed's monetary policy [1]