Group 1 - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October, marking the first decline since May [1] - The slowdown in gas and electricity price increases is identified as a key factor contributing to the overall decline in inflation [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, has slightly decreased from 3.5% to 3.4%, while the service price inflation rate has also dropped from 4.7% to 4.5% [1] Group 2 - The recent inflation data increases the likelihood of the Bank of England implementing a rate cut in December, with market expectations rising following the decline in inflation [1] - Economic growth is slowing, and the conditions for a rate cut are deemed favorable, although the inflation rate remains significantly above the Bank's target of 2% [2] - The UK Chancellor emphasized the importance of maintaining fiscal prudence in the upcoming budget to avoid exacerbating inflation and to alleviate the cost of living pressures [2]

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower on November 18, with the Nikkei 225 index down 1.02% and the KOSPI down 1.10% [5] - International gold and silver prices dropped significantly, with spot gold falling below $4030 per ounce and silver dropping below $50 per ounce [6] - The US stock market also faced declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.18% to 46,590.24 points, the Nasdaq down 0.84% to 22,708.07 points, and the S&P 500 down 0.92% to 6,672.41 points [6] Individual Stock News - Sohu's stock rose over 7% after reporting third-quarter revenue of $180 million, a 19% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $9 million, marking a return to profitability [7] - Johnson & Johnson announced the acquisition of Halda Therapeutics for $3.05 billion in cash, expected to close in the coming months [7] - Novo Nordisk announced a new pricing strategy for its weight loss drug Wegovy and diabetes drug Ozempic, reducing the self-pay price by 30% to $349 per month [7] - Google DeepMind and Google Research launched the WeatherNext 2 forecasting model, with data now available on Earth Engine and BigQuery platforms [7] International Macro - The Federal Reserve's probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is at 42.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 57.1% [9] - Canadian inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in October, attributed to lower gasoline and grocery prices [10]

Group 1 - The European Commission's 2025 autumn economic outlook report indicates that the EU economy continues to grow, driven by a surge in exports due to anticipated U.S. tariffs [1][2] - The report forecasts a 1.4% growth in the EU's real GDP for 2025 and 1.3% for the Eurozone, with a slight downward revision from previous predictions [1] - Inflation rates in the Eurozone are expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025, while the overall EU inflation rate is projected to decrease from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.2% by 2027 [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that trade barriers have reached historical highs, with increased average tariff levels on EU exports to the U.S. compared to the spring 2025 forecast [2] - Ongoing trade policy uncertainties are dampening economic activity, with tariffs and non-tariff restrictions expected to have a greater-than-anticipated suppressive effect on EU economic growth [2] - The European Commission emphasizes the need for decisive action to unlock internal growth potential, including accelerating competitiveness agendas and simplifying regulations [2]

Core Insights - Thailand's inflation rate decreased by 0.72% year-on-year in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline in 2023 [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to falling prices, primarily due to government measures that reduced fuel and electricity prices, as well as lower costs for fresh food [1] - Despite the overall decline in inflation, the core consumer price index remains positive, indicating sustained domestic demand [1] Economic Indicators - The Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office of the Ministry of Commerce, Nattapong Jiralertpong, stated that the core inflation rate has not decreased, particularly in the prepared food and entertainment sectors, reflecting ongoing domestic demand [1] - Employment rates are reported to be at normal levels, further supporting the notion that the economy is not experiencing deflation [1] - The Ministry of Commerce forecasts that the inflation rate may approach zero by the fourth quarter of 2025, with potential for negative values in certain months [1]

Core Insights - Thailand's export growth has slowed to its lowest level in nearly a year due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, with August exports increasing by only 5.8% year-on-year, reaching $27.7 billion [1] - The inflation rate in August decreased compared to previous predictions, indicating a slowdown in exports to the U.S., Thailand's largest market [1] Export Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, Thailand's export value grew by 13.3%, totaling $223 billion, while imports increased by 11.3% to $225 billion [1] - Monthly export values for the remaining four months of the year are expected to range between $24 billion and $24.5 billion [2] Market Dynamics - Exports to major markets such as the U.S., China, and Southeast Asia showed growth, with exports to China increasing by 5.9% [2]

Economic Growth Forecast - Malta's central bank predicts real GDP growth will slow from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025, with further decline to 3.3% by 2027 [1] - The bank's report indicates a slight downward adjustment for 2025's GDP growth compared to previous forecasts, while projections for the following two years remain largely unchanged [1] Key Growth Drivers - Private consumption is expected to remain the main driver of GDP growth throughout the forecast period (2025-2027), despite a decline from recent peaks [1] - Investment is anticipated to continue recovering in the first two years of the forecast period [1] - Net exports are projected to contribute positively to GDP growth, primarily due to service trade, although this contribution will be significantly less than domestic demand [1] Employment and Unemployment Trends - Employment growth is expected to gradually slow, decreasing from 5.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, and further to 2.4% and 2.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to decline to 2.7% by the end of the forecast period [1] Wage Growth and Inflation - The labor market is expected to remain tight, which will be a key factor driving wage increases [2] - Wage growth is forecasted to slow from 6.3% last year to 4.4% in 2025, with further declines to 3.7% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - The average annual inflation rate is expected to reach 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.4% last year, primarily reflecting a decrease in food and service inflation [2] - Inflation rates for 2026 and 2027 are projected to further decline to 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively, driven mainly by a decrease in service inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates that overall inflation is nearing 2%, but core inflation remains elevated, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [1] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by approximately 1% this year, reflecting a slowdown in economic activity [1] - Factors such as uncertainty, tariff measures, and reduced immigration are expected to hinder economic growth [1] Monetary Policy - A moderately tight monetary policy is in place, allowing for the assessment of new data as it becomes available [1] - Inflation rates are anticipated to gradually decline to 2% over the next two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank's decision to lower interest rates is primarily driven by the decline in inflation rates [1] Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank is responding to a significant decrease in inflation, which has influenced its monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed that the market will gain confidence in the decline of inflation rates, and this confidence will gradually increase if there are no tariff measures in place [1] Group 1 - The market's confidence in decreasing inflation rates is expected to rise [1] - The absence of tariff measures is a key factor that could enhance this confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that maintaining the current labor market and a declining inflation rate justifies keeping interest rates unchanged [1] Group 1 - The current labor market conditions are deemed stable and supportive of the decision to hold interest rates steady [1] - A continuous decrease in the inflation rate is a critical factor influencing the Fed's monetary policy [1]