Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates that overall inflation is nearing 2%, but core inflation remains elevated, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [1] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by approximately 1% this year, reflecting a slowdown in economic activity [1] - Factors such as uncertainty, tariff measures, and reduced immigration are expected to hinder economic growth [1] Monetary Policy - A moderately tight monetary policy is in place, allowing for the assessment of new data as it becomes available [1] - Inflation rates are anticipated to gradually decline to 2% over the next two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank's decision to lower interest rates is primarily driven by the decline in inflation rates [1] Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank is responding to a significant decrease in inflation, which has influenced its monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed that the market will gain confidence in the decline of inflation rates, and this confidence will gradually increase if there are no tariff measures in place [1] Group 1 - The market's confidence in decreasing inflation rates is expected to rise [1] - The absence of tariff measures is a key factor that could enhance this confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that maintaining the current labor market and a declining inflation rate justifies keeping interest rates unchanged [1] Group 1 - The current labor market conditions are deemed stable and supportive of the decision to hold interest rates steady [1] - A continuous decrease in the inflation rate is a critical factor influencing the Fed's monetary policy [1]

欧委会5月19日消息：欧委会发布2025年春季经济预测显示，尽管全球政策不确定性和贸易紧张局势加 剧，但预计今年欧盟经济仍将保持温和增长，2026年有望回升。2025年欧盟和欧元区实际GDP预计分别 增长1.1%和0.9%，与2024年基本持平；2026年将分别增长1.5%和1.4%。欧元区的总体通胀率预计将从 2024年的2.4%降至2025年的2.1%及2026年的1.7%。欧盟的通胀率也将从2024年的略高水平下降到2026 年的略低于2%。 贸易碎片化、气候灾害等风险仍对增长构成下行威胁。欧美贸易缓和、新贸易协议推进、国防支出增加 及结构性改革深化等积极因素，将进一步增强欧盟经济的韧性。 出口受全球贸易放缓影响，预计2025年欧盟出口增长0.7%，2026年增长2.1%。不确定性对需求的影响 远大于关税。继2024年固定资本形成总额收缩1.8%之后，投资将温和复苏，目前预计2025年投资将增 长1.5%，2026年将进一步增至2.4%。私人消费方面，预计增长将略高于去年秋季预测，2025年将达到 1.5%，2026年将达到1.6%。这主要得益于2024年强劲的增长势头，以及在通胀压力迅速下降的背景下 ...