原油等待 OPEC 会议驱动:聚烯烃偏弱,芳 烃偏强格局延续 (一) 原油: 逻辑:海外宏观路径依旧不清晰,但近期美债日债拍卖出现滞销, 关注本周三次美债拍卖情况,VIX 指数有所抬头，关注周内警惕宏观 风险可能;供需方面中期 OPEC+继续加速增产,6月1日的部长级会 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 品种 偏空 空単持有 原油 震荡 偏空. 偏空. 空単特有 EB 寻反抽结束做空机会 偏空. 偏空. PX 偏空 偏空 寻反抽结束做空机会 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PP 塑料 偏空 偏空 空单持有 偏空 空単持有 甲醇 偏空 小时观望,15分钟空单持有 偏空 偏多 EG 偏空 偏空 震荡区间上沿逢高空 橡胶 偏空. 偏空. 寻反抽结束做空机会 PVC 偏空 BR 橡胶 偏空 空単持有 板块观点汇总 议市交易的时间下一次节点,短期美国成品油出现累库,留意美国需 求不及预期可能;地缘方面美伊第五轮谈判后特朗普表示会谈"非常 好"，主观仍推断新伊核协议达成可能较大。 图 1. 1: 原油 2507 日线图 数据来源:天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1. 2: 原油 2507 小时图 (二) 苯乙烯: 逻辑:库存 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in June and July, and the market generally believes the Fed will be cautious about rate cuts. After the suspension of Sino-US tariffs, the market sentiment is good, but the impact of tariffs on inflation remains to be observed. The market should also pay attention to the scale of US Treasury bonds this year and be sensitive to the potential sharp rise in Treasury yields [2]. - OPEC+ has decided to accelerate production increases and may continue to do so in July. The supply growth expectation is relatively certain, but when the supply increase will materialize needs data verification. The geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine, Israel, and Iran may move towards negotiation, with slow progress. The demand may enter the summer peak season, but if there is a significant supply increase, the impact of seasonal demand on prices may be limited. Overall, OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and oil prices may fluctuate based on supply and demand expectations, while also being affected by geopolitical factors [2]. - Oil prices are under overall pressure. There are differences in the rhythm of OPEC+ supply increases, and the market is waiting for Saudi Arabia's attitude. If oil prices are stable, the supply pressure may be released smoothly; if prices decline, it may lead to market share competition. Geopolitical negotiations are progressing slowly, and conflicts may be in a stalemate, with a possibility of short - term disturbances. The US Treasury yields fluctuate greatly, and attention should be paid to the impact of Treasury bond maturities on the market [2]. - From a technical perspective, after oil prices broke through the multi - year production cut bottom, they rebounded to test the pressure level. WTI crude oil shows pressure around $64 per barrel. The trading strategy is to maintain a short - selling approach in the medium term and consider short positions or adding put options when prices rise back to the production cut bottom range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 19th, Sc was at 462.80 yuan/barrel, down 9.80 yuan (-2.07%) from last week; WTI was at $62.15 per barrel, down $0.34 (-0.54%) from the previous day and up $0.19 (0.31%) from last week; Brent was at $65.48 per barrel, up $0.49 (0.75%) from last week [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Sc - WTI was $2.20 per barrel, up 137.96% from the previous day and down 39.13% from last week; Sc - Brent was -$1.13 per barrel, down -41.12% from the previous day and -291.44% from last week; Brent - WTI was $3.33 per barrel, down -273.96% from the previous day and up 465.58% from last week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $64.08 per barrel, down $1.30 (-1.99%) from last week; Brent DTD was at $65.01 per barrel, down $1.06 (-1.60%) from last week; Oman was at $63.75 per barrel, down $1.51 (-2.31%) from last week; Dubai was at $63.75 per barrel, down $1.51 (-2.31%) from last week; ESPO was at $60.80 per barrel, down $0.30 (-0.49%) from last week [2]. - **Product Prices**: Diesel in East China was at 6592.82 yuan/ton, down 6.91 yuan from the previous day and up 14.27 yuan (0.22%) from last week; gasoline in East China was at 7640.82 yuan/ton, down 23.18 yuan (-0.30%) from the previous day and down 54.27 yuan (-0.71%) from last week [2]. 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory**: Sc warehouse receipts were 402.90 million barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 399.65 million barrels, up 0.53 million barrels (0.13%) from the previous week; US commercial crude oil was 441.83 million barrels, up 3.45 million barrels (0.79%) from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 23.89 million barrels, down 1.07 million barrels (-4.28%) from the previous week; gasoline was 224.71 million barrels, down 1.02 million barrels (-0.45%) from the previous week; distillates were 103.55 million barrels, down 3.16 million barrels (-2.96%) from the previous week [2]. - **Positions**: Non - commercial net positions were 18.53 million contracts, up 0.99 million contracts (5.63%) from the previous week; commercial net positions were -18.48 million contracts, down 0.42 million contracts (2.35%) from the previous week; non - reported net positions were -0.05 million contracts, down 0.56 million contracts (-108.97%) from the previous week [2]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission's Trade Commissioner will propose to the G7 finance ministers this week to lower the current $60 per - barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil to $50 per barrel [3]. - Trump and Putin agreed to continue dialogue and plan a future meeting, while there is no time frame for a possible Russia - Ukraine ceasefire [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky is willing to have direct negotiations with Russia but will not compromise on territorial issues [4]. - Angola's oil exports are expected to increase to 1.02 million barrels per day in July [5]. - Goldman Sachs maintains its oil price forecasts for the rest of 2025 and 2026, and raises its Iran oil supply forecast from the second half of 2025 to 2026 to 3.6 million barrels per day [5]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 8.6%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 66.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 30.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.3% [6]. - Dallas Fed President Logan suggests the Fed strengthen mechanisms to prevent money market rate spikes, encourage banks to use the discount window, and focus on broader market rates [6]. - Fed's Bostic expects to cut interest rates once this year and may act earlier if trade negotiations go well [6]. - JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon does not rule out the possibility of the US economy entering stagflation and points out that the US debt - to - GDP ratio is too high [7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a cautious outlook on oil prices due to potential increases in Iranian supply and high OECD commercial inventories, which may offset the support from strong global GDP growth [1] Group 1: Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs keeps its oil price forecast for the remainder of 2025 at $60 for Brent and $56 for WTI, which is $4 lower than forward prices [1] - For 2026, the forecast is set at $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI, which is $8 lower than forward prices [1] Group 2: Iranian Oil Supply Expectations - Following reports of potential progress in the US-Iran nuclear agreement, Goldman Sachs raises its forecast for Iranian oil supply in the second half of 2025 to 3.6 million barrels per day [1] - If the US-Iran nuclear agreement is reached and implemented, it is possible for Iranian oil supply to gradually increase by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, recording its largest weekly decline in six months, primarily due to a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - As of the report, spot gold dropped by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a daily low of $3,154, marking a nearly 4% decline for the week, the worst since November of the previous year [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by approximately 58 basis points by the end of the year, a significant reduction from the 120 basis points anticipated during the peak of panic in April [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold's price action on Friday mirrored that of Thursday, with a significant drop followed by a potential rebound, indicating a possible double bottom formation [2][4] - The key support levels are identified at $3,152 and $3,140, while resistance is noted at $3,210-3,212, suggesting a wide trading range for the upcoming week [4] - The strategy for the upcoming week is to focus on buying on dips above $3,150 and selling on rallies, with a close watch on the resistance and support levels [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day due to easing global trade tensions [5] - The market's concerns regarding oil demand were alleviated by a temporary suspension of tariffs between major economies, which is expected to help mitigate fears of a global economic slowdown [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish, with the price expected to test lower levels around $50 after a series of fluctuations [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling on rallies, with key resistance levels at $63.50-64.00 and support levels at $60.5-60.0 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, with a potential for the largest weekly decline in six months, driven by a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - As of the report, spot gold decreased by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a weekly drop exceeding 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since November 2024 [2] - The market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, now anticipating a reduction of about 58 basis points this year, down from a peak of 120 basis points during the panic in April [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold showed a strong bullish reversal after hitting a low of 3,120, with a target to test the upper channel at 3,500-3,438, provided that the 3,120 level holds [3] - The recent trading has been influenced by the timing of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with key resistance at 3,211-3,212 [3] - Short-term analysis indicates a potential for a second bottom test followed by a rebound, with critical resistance at 3,211-3,212 and support levels at 3,150 and 3,140 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day [6] - The rebound was attributed to easing global trade tensions, which alleviated concerns about the global economy and oil demand, despite ongoing supply surplus pressures [6] - Oil prices had previously fallen over 2% due to comments from President Trump regarding nearing a nuclear deal with Iran, although key differences remain unresolved [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices indicates downward pressure from the moving average system, with expectations of a decline towards the $50 level after a series of price fluctuations [7] - Short-term trends show oil prices testing the $60 support level, with a potential for a small upward movement before facing resistance around $63.50 [7] - The recommended trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance at $63.5-$64.0 and support at $60.5-$60.0 [7]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-16 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 5 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较 上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育 强势进场，部分养殖户预计加快出栏节奏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，猪肉消费转 淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动 进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险， ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a renewed US-Iran nuclear deal has led to a significant drop in oil prices, raising concerns about whether the price will fall below the $50 mark [1] Group 1: Oil Price Impact - Oil prices experienced a sharp decline in a single day, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical developments [1] - The potential for the oil price to breach the $50 threshold is under scrutiny, indicating a critical level for market stability [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The renewed discussions surrounding the US-Iran nuclear agreement are influencing market sentiment and oil supply dynamics [1] - The implications of the nuclear deal on oil production and exports from Iran could further affect global oil prices [1]

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil products, released on May 9, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is dominated by the supply - surplus pressure brought by OPEC+ production increases. Although the announced June production increase by the OPEC+ meeting meets market expectations, the clearer production - increasing tendency for the future has a significant impact on market sentiment, intensifying the medium - to - long - term crude oil surplus expectation. It is expected that oil prices will operate weakly after the holiday [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Crude Oil Prices**: From April 29 to May 8, WTI crude oil price changed from $60.42 to $59.91, with a change of $1.84; BRENT crude oil price changed from $64.25 to $62.84, with a change of $1.72; DUBAI crude oil price changed from $67.78 to $63.00, with a change of $1.47 [3] - **Related Product Prices**: SC price change was - 7.20; OMAN price changed from $66.10 to $63.24, with a change of $1.76. Domestic gasoline price remained at 7800 yuan, with a change of 0 yuan; domestic gasoline - BRT changed by - 107 yuan. Japan naphtha - BRT changed by - 20.14; Singapore fuel oil 380CST changed by 0.8 [3] 2. Daily News - **Price Forecast Adjustment**: Citi lowered its short - term price forecast for Brent crude to $55 per barrel due to the potential US - Iran nuclear deal. The probability of a final agreement is estimated at 60%. If the agreement is reached, the price may fall to $50 per barrel; otherwise, it may rise to $70 per barrel or higher [3] - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's crude oil daily production in April decreased by 30,000 barrels to 26.6 million barrels per day compared to March [4] - **Company Decision**: ConocoPhillips cut its spending forecast by 3.5% to $12.45 billion due to falling oil prices while keeping its production forecast unchanged. WTI crude has fallen about 18% this year and is still below $60 [4] - **Sanctions**: The US Treasury added two individuals, several entities, and vessels to the new round of Iran - related sanctions [4] - **Production Plan**: Kazakhstan has no plan to cut oil production in May, with a daily production of 277,000 tons, the same as in April [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Data (Week Ended May 2)**: US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a 0.46% decrease; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, a 0.15% increase; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 558,000 barrels per day to 6.056 million barrels per day. EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels (expected - 1.6 million barrels, previous value - 4.003 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels (expected - 1.271 million barrels, previous value 0.937 million barrels) [5] - **China Market**: From April 24, the main refinery operating rate generally decreased, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate rebounded. China's gasoline production decreased, and diesel production increased. The production and sales rate of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased and exceeded the balance. Gasoline and diesel prices dropped significantly, and middle - and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.06%, and diesel inventory decreased by 0.69%. The comprehensive profit of main refineries and local refineries declined [6] 4. Weekly Views - **Saudi Policy Change**: Saudi Arabia is reluctant to further cut supply to support the oil market and can handle long - term low oil prices, indicating a possible shift towards increasing production and expanding market share [6] - **OPEC+ Production Plan**: At the OPEC+ meeting on May 3, eight participating countries announced a production increase of 414,000 barrels per day in June. Considering compensation for production cuts, the actual increase in June may be 359,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ is preparing to accelerate oil production increases before October and may gradually cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day before November if the production cut situation of member countries does not improve [6]

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Market Sentiment - The market's concerns over trade tensions have slightly diminished following Trump's announcement of a trade framework agreement with the UK, boosting optimism for future trade agreements [1][2] - The agreement includes expedited customs processes for US products and reduced barriers for billions of dollars worth of US agricultural, chemical, energy, and industrial goods, although a 10% baseline tariff remains [2][3] - This limited agreement has enhanced investor confidence, leading to expectations of more complex trade negotiations potentially reaching successful outcomes [2][3] Group 2: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices rebounded, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil closing at $59.91 per barrel, up 3.17%, and Brent crude oil at $62.84 per barrel, up 2.81% [1] - The tightening supply expectations due to US sanctions on Iranian exports have contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices [1][4] - Citigroup analysts have adjusted their short-term Brent oil price forecast from $60 to $55 per barrel, while maintaining a long-term forecast of $60 per barrel, indicating potential price fluctuations based on geopolitical developments [2][5] Group 3: Soft Power and Market Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in international oil prices reflect the critical role of soft power in shaping market expectations and resource pricing [3][6] - The limited trade agreement with the UK signals the US's ability to reshape trade rules through soft power, despite retaining some tariffs [3][4] - The strategic use of soft power in energy sanctions against Iran demonstrates a combination of hard and soft power dynamics, influencing market perceptions and geopolitical alliances [4][6] Group 4: Market Predictions and Financial Analysis - Analysts at Citigroup have highlighted the importance of their predictive models in influencing market sentiment, quantifying geopolitical uncertainties into tradable financial variables [5][6] - The establishment of a price range of $50 to $70 per barrel for oil serves to create trading opportunities and provide a reference for policymakers [5][6] - The narrative framing around the potential outcomes of trade agreements simplifies complex geopolitical relationships, reinforcing the analytical authority of financial institutions [5][6]

金十数据5月8日讯，花旗研究周四将布伦特原油三个月期预估从先前预估的每桶60美元下调至55美元， 因美伊核协议谈判重启，提高了最终达成协议的可能性。花旗表示，由于市场供应增加，美国和伊朗之 间的协议可能会缓解制裁，这可能会推动布伦特原油价格跌至每桶50美元。但如果没有达成协议，以及 遏制伊朗核计划等可能升级的行动，可能会将油价推高至每桶70美元或更高。花旗认为最终达成协议的 可能性为60%。 花旗将布油短期价格预测下调至55美元，因美伊核协议有望达成 ...