Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The U.S. June non - farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, cooling the market's bets on a September rate cut. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed the non - ferrous sector. With Trump's new tariff plan and the approaching July 9 tariff deadline, risk - aversion sentiment rose. Combined with the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weakening demand in the zinc market, the zinc price declined. However, downstream price - fixing at low points improved trading [7] Group 4: Market Review Futures Market | Contract | Opening Price (Yuan/Ton) | Closing Price (Yuan/Ton) | High (Yuan/Ton) | Low (Yuan/Ton) | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SHFE Zinc 2507 | 22335 | 22135 | 22340 | 22075 | - 260 | - 1.16% | 4040 | - 1295 | | SHFE Zinc 2508 | 22340 | 22090 | 22360 | 22040 | - 260 | - 1.16% | 126532 | - 1468 | | SHFE Zinc 2509 | 22290 | 22040 | 22295 | 21980 | - 250 | - 1.12% | 88885 | - 448 | - The main SHFE zinc contract closed at 22090 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan with a 1.16% decline. Trading volume increased while open interest decreased. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1725 tons to 110600 tons, the 0 - 3 spread was C21.64, and the import profit and loss was - 939.54 yuan/ton, with the import window closed. The processing fee continued to rise. Although some smelters had maintenance in July, the overall industry's high - level operation due to good smelter profits led to an increase in zinc ingot supply. The consumption entered the off - season and weakened. The inventory on Monday increased by 0.67 million tons to 8.91 million tons. The downstream price - fixing at low points improved trading, with the Shanghai market at a premium of 160 yuan over the 08 contract, the Tianjin market at a discount of 70 yuan to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market at a premium of 20 yuan over the 08 contract [7] Group 5: Industry News Price and Premium in Different Regions - On July 7, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22220 - 22420 yuan/ton, and the double - swallow brand was 22260 - 22450 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc was 22150 - 22350 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, with fewer quotes against the futures price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a premium of 160 - 170 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream 0 zinc transaction price was 22180 - 22340 yuan/ton. The regular brands quoted a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price [8] - In the Tianjin market, the 0 zinc ingot mainstream transaction price was 22110 - 22290 yuan/ton, and the Zijin brand was 22150 - 22310 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingot was 22010 - 22170 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc quoted a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract, and the Zijin brand quoted a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of 70 yuan to the Shanghai market [8][9] - In the Guangdong market, the 0 zinc mainstream transaction price was 22090 - 22290 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan to the Shanghai spot price, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened [9] Group 6: Data Overview - No specific data overview analysis provided, only the source of data and related charts (such as the trend of zinc prices in two markets, SHFE monthly spread, SMM seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory, and LME zinc inventory) were mentioned [10][15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper declined in the afternoon. The rebound of the US dollar index and the slight increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper on Thursday put pressure on the copper price. The short - term price dropped, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the previous price center of 78,000 [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price showed a weak shock in the afternoon, and the monthly spread continued to decline. The good domestic macro - atmosphere and the strong performance of the black sector provided support. The continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum and good domestic demand also supported the price. The price may continue to rise strongly, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated below 119,000, with little change in the position. It has been weak in the non - ferrous sector since last week due to industrial and news factors. The price shows signs of stabilizing in the short term, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at 120,000 [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 9.537 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The top three provinces in terms of output were Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu. Chile's Potrerillos copper smelter is expected to resume operation at the end of July [9]. - **Aluminum**: In May 2025, China's alumina output was 748,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the cumulative output from January to May was 3.7401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The electrolytic aluminum output in May was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the cumulative output from January to May was 1.859 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0% [10]. - **Nickel**: On June 19, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai nickel 2507 contract. The prices of different types of nickel were provided, such as the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 121,480 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory, SHFE nickel inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory are provided [36][38][40].

国际黄金周三（5月14日）日K收跌，美市尾盘，国际黄金收报3176.49美元/盎司，下跌73.03美元或 2.25%，日内最高上探3256.87美元/盎司，最低触及3167.69美元/盎司。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至5月14日，黄金ETF持有量为936.51吨，较上一交易日 持平。 黄金ETF最新持仓数据： 【上一交易日黄金行情解析】 金价昨日再度走低，第2次未能在收取的止跌形态下，进行看涨反弹。不过，ZZ指标早已显示触底，这 则暗示下方空间有限，下方关注3165美元一线支撑，以及60日均线支撑位置尝试看涨。 | 日期 | 净持仓量（盎司） | 净持仓量（吨） | 总价值（美元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-14 | 30109645.55 | 936.51 | 96093252112.56 | | 2025-05-13 | 30109645.55 | 936.51 | 97178252440.75 | （注：黄金ETF持仓增加，表明买盘增加，市场看涨黄金的情绪升温，利多黄金；黄金ETF持仓减少， 表明卖盘增加，市场看跌黄金的情绪升温，利 ...