1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each metal, which can be summarized as follows based on the rating standard (expected price movement within 2 - 12 weeks): - **Copper**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern [8][9] - **Alumina**: Expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term [11][13] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with potential for an upward movement later [13][15] - **Zinc**: Expected to be volatile and bearish [15][16] - **Lead**: Expected to be in a volatile state [17][20] - **Nickel**: Expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [21][25] - **Stainless Steel**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term [26] - **Tin**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern, with potential for increased volatility in August [27][29] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Investors are concerned about weak consumption, causing the non - ferrous metals market to decline under pressure. The 7 - month Politburo meeting was in line with expectations, and potential incremental stimulus policies are yet to be seen. The market's focus has shifted back to weakening consumption. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the Sino - US tariff has been further extended. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the US unexpectedly did not impose additional taxes on refined copper imports, leading to a stronger US dollar index, which exerts pressure on non - ferrous metals. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of base metals are gradually loosening seasonally, and domestic inventories are rising seasonally. In the short - to - medium term, the rapid rise of the US dollar and the expectation of weakening demand will suppress prices, and there is a risk of further decline in the center of gravity of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to short zinc ingots at high prices and cautiously consider low - buying and short - term long opportunities for aluminum and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and short - selling opportunities at high prices for some varieties with supply - demand surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, causing a significant decline in COMEX copper prices. - **Information Analysis**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged. China's electrolytic copper production in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, COMEX copper prices dropped significantly, and the C - L spread returned to the historical average. In terms of supply and demand, the copper ore processing fee continued to decline, and the raw material supply was still tight. The demand for copper rods decreased, and the copper inventory increased, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply of copper is still restricted, and the inventory is at a low level. However, the demand is marginally weakening, and the US tariff on copper is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. Copper is expected to show a volatile pattern [9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has declined, and alumina prices are oscillating and falling. - **Information Analysis**: The spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends on July 31. There were some spot basis - point transactions, and an overseas transaction of 30,000 tons of alumina was completed. The alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the low warehouse receipts problem dominate the alumina market. Fundamentally, the supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising, but the warehouse receipts are at a very low level. The market price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation before the significant increase in warehouse receipts [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" sentiment and warehouse receipts [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased significantly. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum decreased. The US and the EU are still negotiating trade agreements, and the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again, and the Politburo meeting statement is in line with expectations. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a weakening trend. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the spot is at a discount. The off - season inventory accumulation trend may continue [13]. - **Outlook**: The short - term consumption and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and the price is expected to be range - bound. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices is recommended based on the premium/discount and inventory inflection point [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased. The import volume of scrap aluminum in June decreased year - on - year. The Sino - US tariffs have been extended, and the Politburo meeting was in line with expectations [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost of ADC12 is supported by the firm price of scrap aluminum. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 - A00 spread is at a low level, and there is an expectation of an upward movement in the future [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and the market follows electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an upward movement later, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has eased, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were different, and the inventory increased. A large - scale lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15][16]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" speculation sentiment has cooled down. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and the smelting profit is good. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. The fundamentals are in a surplus state [16]. - **Outlook**: In August, the production of zinc ingots will remain high, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [16]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the decline space of lead prices is limited. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of scrap batteries remained unchanged, the price of lead decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the supply increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm improved slightly [17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the premium is stable, and the spread between primary and recycled lead has decreased slightly. The supply of recycled lead is increasing, and the demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, with the battery factory's operating rate higher than the same period in previous years [20]. - **Outlook**: The macro - situation is fluctuating. The demand is gradually recovering, and the supply may continue to increase slightly. The cost of recycled lead is strongly supported, and lead prices are expected to be in a volatile state [20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The anti - speculation logic has emerged, and nickel prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. Many companies in the nickel industry have investment and development plans, and the Indonesian nickel ore association proposed to revise the HPM formula [21][22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may become looser after the rainy season, and the intermediate product output has recovered. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the upward pressure is significant [25]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be volatile and bearish, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [25]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The spot premium in Foshan was positive, and the price of high - nickel pig iron increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The inventory has decreased, and the structural surplus pressure has been relieved [26]. - **Outlook**: The cost has increased recently. Attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. The demand is limited by the off - season, and the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the position decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [27]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, the tin ore production is expected to increase gradually, but the domestic tin ore shortage situation will not change for the time being. The supply of raw materials for smelters is tight, and the operating rate and output are under downward pressure. The terminal demand has weakened marginally [27]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of tin ore. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the volatility may increase in August [29].