【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 环球时报记者 李萌 环球时报特约记者 王黎】编者的话：近期公布 的爱泼斯坦案文件在欧洲多国政坛掀起风浪，与之形成鲜明对比的是美国政府的"云淡风轻"。此次事件 真正留下的并非海量解封的文件，而是一道难以愈合的信任裂痕。在美国普通选民中，一种更缓慢却更 深层的变化正在发生：对政府的怀疑、对精英的警惕，以及对民主参与意义的重新衡量。一个被内部信 任危机困扰、政治极化加剧的美国，其国内的社会撕裂与政治失能，或将不可避免地向世界投射风险， 影响国际秩序的稳定与共同应对挑战的合作基础。 " 将每个人都变成阴谋论者 " ？ "最让我不安的不是文件里写了什么，而是（文件公布后）什么也没有发生。"住在马里兰州巴尔的摩郊 区的琳赛，这样向《环球时报》驻美国特约记者描述她对爱泼斯坦案文件公布后事情走向的失望。这名 37岁的媒体从业者说，在欧洲，一些人的名字一旦出现在相关文件中，他们的政治生命基本就算结束 了。然而，在美国，好像只要你足够有权、有钱，就可以静等风头过去。 在琳赛看来，美国媒体对文件公布的报道并不少，但真正的"制度反应"却迟迟未到，"我们报道、讨 论、愤怒，但政府基本没有反应。这让我第 ...

【环球时报驻俄罗斯特派记者 肖新新 环球时报特约记者 于文】俄罗斯与乌克兰的冲突已持续近4年。据乌克兰国家通讯社2月7日报道，乌总统泽连斯基对 媒体说，美国方面希望俄乌冲突在今年6月之前结束，并首次提议两国团队近期到美国举行谈判，乌方将赴约。为什么是6月？泽连斯基表示，美方之所以选 择今年夏天作为"最后期限"，是因为届时美国国会中期选举竞选活动将要开始，"选举对他们来说绝对更重要，我们不要天真"。这些消息未得到美方和俄方 证实。俄"乌克兰网"8日称，泽连斯基最新关于谈判进程"似真实假的虚伪表态"，实质上仍是在为阻碍和谈进程寻找借口。不过，俄乌双方都认为，随着美 国中期选举的临近，停火谈判的窗口期正在缩短。 " 美国人很着急 " 据报道，泽连斯基6日与记者举行简报会，相关内容于7日公布。泽连斯基在会上说："美国人提议俄乌在今夏之前结束战争，他们可能按照这个时间表向俄 乌双方施压。""如果俄罗斯人真的准备结束战争，那么设定一个最后期限就非常重要。"他还透露，"美国首次提议乌克兰和俄罗斯两个谈判团队在美国会 面，可能在一周后的迈阿密。我们已确认将参加。"英国广播公司（BBC）称，华盛顿和莫斯科方面均未立即对此发表评 ...

来源：滚动播报 美国银行策略师表示，随着科技巨头失去吸引力，美国小盘股和中盘股是中期选举前的最佳押注。由 Michael Hartnett领导的团队表示，美国总统特朗普为压低能源、医疗、信贷、住房和电力价格而采取 的"激进干预"措施，正对能源巨头、制药商、银行以及大型科技公司在内的行业板块造成压力。这使得 中小型股成为美国中期选举前这轮"繁荣"的主要受益者。他们在报告中写道："我们看多实体经济，看 空华尔街，直至特朗普的支持率因政策转向解决生活成本问题而回升。" ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is eager to move past the Epstein case, as President Trump stated that the country should focus on other matters following the release of over 3 million pages of related documents [1][2] - The documents, which include over 2,000 videos and 180,000 images, mention Trump more than 1,000 times, highlighting his long-standing friendship with Epstein [1] - Other prominent figures such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Walsh, and Elon Musk are also mentioned in the newly released documents, indicating the case's wide-reaching implications in the political and business sectors [1] Group 2 - The release of Epstein-related documents was initially a promise made by Trump for his presidential campaign, but the Justice Department only began releasing them after the passage of the Epstein Archives Transparency Act in November 2025 [2] - The ongoing controversy surrounding the case poses a challenge for the Trump administration, as it could be used as ammunition by political opponents in the upcoming midterm elections [2] - The long-term nature of the political struggle between the two parties suggests that the Epstein case may continue to have repercussions in the future [2]

美国总统特朗普及其盟友过去一年筹得创纪录的4.29亿美元政治捐款，科技亿万富豪与寻求政策调整的 企业纷纷解囊，为其中期选举前积累资金。 英国《金融时报》分析发现，由特朗普盟友掌控的单一政治行动委员会（PAC）"让美国再次伟 大"（Maga Inc）目前持有3.04亿美元资金——这一数额超过了历届中期选举年任何政治行动委员会的 储备资金，较民主党相关阵营的手头资金多出数千万美元。 对于一位受任期限制、无法再为自身竞选募资的总统而言，这样的筹款规模极为罕见。这一结果证明， 即便民调显示部分摇摆选民因特朗普的移民收紧政策和海外干预行动对其心生不满，他仍在共和党内部 占据绝对主导地位。 这一数据也凸显出，大额捐赠者迫切希望为这届政府提供资金支持——本届政府大力扶持加密货币和人 工智能行业，废除或放宽多项监管规定，还终止了对政治盟友的司法调查。 特朗普尚未表明将如何动用这笔资金火力，但其盟友已通过独立基金针对共和党众议员托马斯・马西 （Thomas Massie）展开行动。马西曾因预算法案和爱泼斯坦文件公开事宜与特朗普产生冲突。 "让美国再次伟大"这类超级政治行动委员会可筹集无上限资金，但不得与竞选活动进行直接协调。 ...

民主党全国委员会主席马丁（Ken Martin）表示，雷梅特的胜选让民主党人感到振奋，并称这场胜利 是"对全国共和党人的一个警告"，因为民主党正在为中期选举做积极准备。 尽管在得州的地方选举遭遇了令人震惊的失败，共和党领导层则认为，他们仍对共和党在今年选举周期 中的表现感到乐观。 "我们将拥有充足的竞选资金、出色的政绩以及众多优秀的候选人。"众议院议长、路易斯安那州共和党 众议员约翰逊表示。 根据美国联邦选举委员会（FEC）周一（2月2日）公布的2025年申报文件，在即将到来的11月美国国会 中期选举前的筹款竞赛中，共和党全国委员会（RNC）暂时大幅领先民主党全国委员会（DNC），手 中现金将近1亿美元，而民主党则面临赤字开局的财政困境。 这份报道显示，RNC在2025年共募得1.72亿美元，账面现金达9500万美元。民主党全国委员会（DNC） 全年募款额为1.45亿美元，但年底账面现金仅剩1400万美元，且仍负担着1700万美元的债务。 共和党遭遇竞选不利 尽管资金一直被看作是影响选举结果的重要因素，但在最近的得克萨斯州的州议员选举中，不具筹款优 势的民主党候选人雷梅特(Taylor Rehmet)以14个 ...

【文/观察者网 王一】79岁的美国总统特朗普上演了一出，老人家年纪大了、记忆会消失的戏码。 在得州1月31日举行的州参议员选举中，民主党人、33岁首次参选的泰勒·雷赫梅特（Taylor Rehmet）以 14个百分点的优势击败共和党候选人利·万布斯甘斯（Leigh Wambsganss），终结了共和党在该选区数 十年的统治。而就在此前一天，特朗普刚向这名共和党候选人公开表达了支持。 当地时间2月1日，特朗普在佛罗里达州海湖庄园外，被记者问及："在得州一处你曾以17个百分点优势 获胜的选区，民主党人赢得了一场特别选举。你对此有何反应？" 特朗普回应称："我不知道，我没听说过这件事。有人参选了？在哪儿？" 被记者提醒是得州后，特朗普只得耸了耸肩说，"我没有参与这件事，这是得州的地方选举。你是说我 赢了17个点，但这个人却输了？这种事情是会发生的。我又不在选票上"。 当地时间2月1 日，特朗普在佛罗里达州海湖庄园外接受记者采访。 视频截图 "79岁的特朗普，声称对共和党惨败毫无记忆。"美国新闻网站《每日野兽》1日嘲讽地指出，就在上周 五，他还在其自创的社媒平台"真实社交"上发帖，亲自为这场选举中的共和党候选人万布斯 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: January 30, 2026 - Industry: Precious Metals - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the improvement of the global economic growth outlook. However, the large influx of speculative funds also increases the price volatility of precious metals. - The performance ranking of precious metals in 2026 is expected to be silver > platinum > palladium > gold > 10%. - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance in precious metals trading, with medium- and long-term investors gradually building up positions, mainly in gold with a small amount of silver, platinum, and palladium. Conservative investors can consider arbitrage opportunities by going long on silver and platinum and short on gold. - Long hedgers should gradually establish hedging positions, while short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [4][5] Group 4: Intraday Market Analysis - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts met market expectations. Geopolitical risks have increased significantly due to the US sending more fleets to the Middle East and threatening Iran, and Iran's warning to the US. This has boosted the safe-haven demand for precious metals, with the London gold price approaching $5,600 per ounce during the Asian session on the 29th. - The correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the internal adjustment risks of precious metals. - This week, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation, the Fed's interest rate meeting, and China's January PMI. [4] Group 5: Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change % | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,187.81 | 1,260.13 | 1,182.65 | 1,250.65 | 5.29% | 357,562 | -14,377 | | SHFE Silver Index | 29,164 | 30,907 | 28,614 | 30,452 | 4.42% | 691,250 | -14,772 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 694.70 | 732.78 | 697.47 | 712.99 | 2.63% | 36,363 | 582 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 504.39 | 544.22 | 511.48 | 526.01 | 4.29% | 13,133 | -937 | [5] Group 6: Medium - term Market Analysis - Due to Trump 2.0's policy shift towards the military and the pressure of the mid - term elections, the Trump administration continues to push the Fed for a loose monetary policy. Both the Fed and the ECB have ended the balance sheet reduction process and started expanding their balance sheets. The US dollar index will continue to be weak. - Geopolitical risks, the safe - haven demand from the US mid - term elections, the liquidity premium from the global central banks' coordinated easing, and the weak US dollar will drive the London gold price to the range of $5,500 - $6,000 per ounce in 2026. - Strong industrial demand, tight spot supply and demand, and the substitution of silver jewelry for gold jewelry will make silver outperform gold. The gold - silver ratio is expected to fall to 40 - 45 in 2026, and the target price for London silver is $120 - $150 per ounce. [5] Group 7: Main Macro Events/Data - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with Chairman Powell stating that the economic growth outlook has significantly improved, and the risks of inflation and employment have decreased, indicating no urgency to further cut borrowing costs. The Fed decided to maintain the target interest rate range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against. - US Treasury Secretary Besent expressed disappointment with Europe's decision to reach a major trade agreement with India, saying that Europe prioritizes trade over the interests of the Ukrainian people. - ECB policymakers are increasingly concerned about the rapid appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, warning that it may lower inflation. The ECB is closely monitoring the situation and will adjust monetary policy accordingly. - US President Trump urged Iran to return to the negotiation table on Wednesday, threatening a more severe attack if an agreement on nuclear weapons is not reached. Russia, Ukraine, and the US will resume negotiations on a solution to the Ukraine war in Abu Dhabi on February 1st. [17][18]

黄金相关机构表态偏乐观，华西证券认为受美联储降息预期、美元信用不稳、美国中期选举以及地缘政 治不确定性的影响，金价有望进一步上涨，根据历史年度涨幅测算，中性情景下2026年金价可能分别上 涨7%、23%和34%。铜、铝等基本金属方面，高盛警告涨势或面临逆风，其调查显示铜加工企业订单量 下降10%至30%，电网订单也在放缓。 有色金属ETF基金（516650）紧密跟踪中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7条指数组 成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的50家上市公司证券作为指数样本，前十大重仓 股包括山东黄金、中金黄金、兴业银锡等贵金属龙头。 1月29日，沪深震荡调整，贵金属概念延续强势；截至14：20，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨1.52%， 盘中最高涨超4%。个股方面，铜陵有色、湖南黄金、西部黄金、盛和资源、云南铜业、北方铜业涨 停，白银有色涨超 9%，江西铜业涨超 8%，北方稀土涨超 7%，中金黄金涨超 6%。 消息面上，有色金属市场延续强势，景气度持续攀升，呈现由贵金属引领、部分小金属接力的态势。1 月29日，伦敦现货黄金一度逼近5600美元/盎司，再创历史新高，伦敦现货白 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 tax season has begun, and the IRS has issued warnings that some taxpayers may face various issues during the filing process [3][8] - For taxpayers who submit error-free returns and opt for direct deposit refunds, the tax processing may be relatively smooth [5][9] - The National Taxpayer Advocate has indicated that due to IRS staff reductions, taxpayers with issues in their filings may encounter greater challenges [5][9] IRS Operational Changes - The IRS had its largest workforce in years during the 2025 tax season, processing over 165 million individual tax returns with most taxpayers receiving timely refunds [3][8] - Entering 2026, the IRS has seen a significant operational shift, with a 27% reduction in staff and frequent management changes, alongside the implementation of complex tax law revisions from the Trump administration [3][8] - The IRS's customer service representative numbers have decreased by 22% in 2025, leading to concerns about the agency's ability to assist taxpayers effectively [11] Taxpayer Assistance and Challenges - The IRS is expected to assist taxpayers in fulfilling their tax obligations during the 2026 season, as stated by the IRS CEO [10] - Experts suggest that many taxpayers may receive higher refunds in 2026 due to tax relief measures from the Trump administration's "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" [10] - The rising cost of living in the U.S. has made tax refund issues a focal point for both political parties as the midterm elections approach [10]