Core Viewpoint - The silver price in 2026 is expected to show a "volatile upward trend," with an annual core operating range projected between $55 and $100 per ounce, potentially reaching $150 per ounce under extreme conditions, driven by structural supply-demand gaps, the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, and explosive industrial demand [1][20]. Group 1: Price Trend and Key Phases - The overall trend for silver prices in 2026 is characterized by independent and strong upward movement, breaking away from the previous passive trend of following gold, primarily due to surging industrial demand [2]. - The price movement can be divided into three phases: 1. Phase 1 (Jan-Apr): Consolidation around $55-$75 per ounce, awaiting the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [6]. 2. Phase 2 (May-Sep): Accelerated rise to $75-$100 per ounce, driven by peak solar installations and AI data center construction [6]. 3. Phase 3 (Oct-Dec): High-level consolidation between $85-$100 per ounce, with potential for extreme highs [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand gap for silver is expected to widen to 5,000 tons, with a conservative estimate of 3,000 tons, and could exceed 8,000 tons if demand from solar and AI sectors surpasses expectations [4]. - Industrial demand for silver has surpassed 60% of total demand, with significant contributions from solar energy, AI data centers, and electric vehicles [5]. - The solar industry alone is projected to consume 1.2 million tons of silver in 2026, accounting for over 40% of global annual silver production [5]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key macroeconomic variable influencing silver prices, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts totaling 50-75 basis points in 2026 [9]. - The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken, providing additional support for silver prices as the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Influences - Geopolitical factors and policy adjustments can trigger short-term price fluctuations, such as China's export control policies and global geopolitical tensions [11]. - China's new export control policy, effective January 1, 2026, is expected to reduce global silver supply by 4,500-5,000 tons, significantly impacting market dynamics [11]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The long-term technical outlook indicates that silver prices have broken out of a previous range (40-60 USD/oz) and are in an upward channel for 2026 [13]. - Short-term technical indicators show a neutral to bullish sentiment, with key support levels around $63-$65 per ounce [14]. Group 6: Practical Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the long-term upward logic of silver prices while managing short-term volatility [15]. - For industry players, strategies include locking in silver costs through long-term contracts and optimizing silver usage to mitigate price fluctuations [15][17].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: January 30, 2026 - Industry: Precious Metals - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the improvement of the global economic growth outlook. However, the large influx of speculative funds also increases the price volatility of precious metals. - The performance ranking of precious metals in 2026 is expected to be silver > platinum > palladium > gold > 10%. - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance in precious metals trading, with medium- and long-term investors gradually building up positions, mainly in gold with a small amount of silver, platinum, and palladium. Conservative investors can consider arbitrage opportunities by going long on silver and platinum and short on gold. - Long hedgers should gradually establish hedging positions, while short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [4][5] Group 4: Intraday Market Analysis - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts met market expectations. Geopolitical risks have increased significantly due to the US sending more fleets to the Middle East and threatening Iran, and Iran's warning to the US. This has boosted the safe-haven demand for precious metals, with the London gold price approaching $5,600 per ounce during the Asian session on the 29th. - The correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the internal adjustment risks of precious metals. - This week, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation, the Fed's interest rate meeting, and China's January PMI. [4] Group 5: Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change % | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,187.81 | 1,260.13 | 1,182.65 | 1,250.65 | 5.29% | 357,562 | -14,377 | | SHFE Silver Index | 29,164 | 30,907 | 28,614 | 30,452 | 4.42% | 691,250 | -14,772 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 694.70 | 732.78 | 697.47 | 712.99 | 2.63% | 36,363 | 582 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 504.39 | 544.22 | 511.48 | 526.01 | 4.29% | 13,133 | -937 | [5] Group 6: Medium - term Market Analysis - Due to Trump 2.0's policy shift towards the military and the pressure of the mid - term elections, the Trump administration continues to push the Fed for a loose monetary policy. Both the Fed and the ECB have ended the balance sheet reduction process and started expanding their balance sheets. The US dollar index will continue to be weak. - Geopolitical risks, the safe - haven demand from the US mid - term elections, the liquidity premium from the global central banks' coordinated easing, and the weak US dollar will drive the London gold price to the range of $5,500 - $6,000 per ounce in 2026. - Strong industrial demand, tight spot supply and demand, and the substitution of silver jewelry for gold jewelry will make silver outperform gold. The gold - silver ratio is expected to fall to 40 - 45 in 2026, and the target price for London silver is $120 - $150 per ounce. [5] Group 7: Main Macro Events/Data - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with Chairman Powell stating that the economic growth outlook has significantly improved, and the risks of inflation and employment have decreased, indicating no urgency to further cut borrowing costs. The Fed decided to maintain the target interest rate range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against. - US Treasury Secretary Besent expressed disappointment with Europe's decision to reach a major trade agreement with India, saying that Europe prioritizes trade over the interests of the Ukrainian people. - ECB policymakers are increasingly concerned about the rapid appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, warning that it may lower inflation. The ECB is closely monitoring the situation and will adjust monetary policy accordingly. - US President Trump urged Iran to return to the negotiation table on Wednesday, threatening a more severe attack if an agreement on nuclear weapons is not reached. Russia, Ukraine, and the US will resume negotiations on a solution to the Ukraine war in Abu Dhabi on February 1st. [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have recently surged, reaching new highs, driven by various factors including market sentiment and geopolitical tensions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of January 26, spot gold reached $5,091.60 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.07% and a year-to-date rise of 17.91% [1]. - COMEX gold futures were reported at $5,074.00 per ounce, up 1.89% for the day and also showing a year-to-date increase exceeding 17% [1]. - In the A-share market, several gold and jewelry stocks, including Zhaojin Mining and Hunan Gold, hit the daily limit, with Zijin Mining rising by 5.17% [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices have also seen significant increases, with London silver at $107.884 per ounce, up 4.40% for the day and a year-to-date rise of 50.72% [5]. - COMEX silver was reported at $107.310 per ounce, with a daily increase of 5.90% and a year-to-date increase of 51.18% [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent bull market in precious metals is attributed to expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, alongside pressures from the U.S. economy and geopolitical uncertainties [5][6]. - Market sentiment has been heightened by U.S. President Trump's threats regarding tariffs and military movements in the Middle East, which have increased demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce leading up to the Chinese New Year, influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and ongoing geopolitical risks [6]. - Long-term expectations suggest that pressures on the U.S. economy and persistent inflation may continue to support rising precious metal prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in precious metals is driven primarily by investor expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, alongside factors such as economic downturn pressures in the U.S., persistent inflation, rising risks of de-globalization, and global geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices have surpassed $5,000 per ounce, largely due to a resurgence in market risk aversion, which has increased demand for gold [1] - Recent threats from U.S. President Trump regarding tariffs on Canadian exports if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China have heightened market tensions [1] - The arrival of the U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Middle East has further escalated geopolitical concerns, contributing to the surge in gold prices [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - The international gold price is expected to fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce before the Chinese New Year, influenced by the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in January [1] - If the pace of interest rate cuts does not meet market expectations, it may lead to a correction in gold prices [1] - Ongoing trade policies and geopolitical risks are likely to remain volatile, providing some support for gold prices due to persistent risk aversion [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with spot gold reaching $5091.600 per ounce and a year-to-date increase of 17.91% as of January 26 [1] - The A-share gold and jewelry sector has seen substantial gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including notable increases in companies like Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining [1] - Silver prices have also surged, with London silver reaching $107.884 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 50.72% [1] Group 2 - The current bull market in precious metals is driven by complex factors, primarily the expectation of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, alongside economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Market demand for gold has increased due to heightened risk aversion, influenced by trade threats from the U.S. and military movements in the Middle East [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices may fluctuate between $4800 and $5200 per ounce leading up to the Chinese New Year, influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and ongoing geopolitical risks [2] Group 3 - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile, driven by events and geopolitical tensions, while long-term factors such as U.S. economic pressures and central bank gold purchases will support higher prices [3] - The financial attributes of gold are being reinforced by market uncertainties, with a continued focus on gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - For ordinary investors, it is advised to invest in gold with caution, considering market conditions and personal risk tolerance, while focusing on long-term strategies rather than short-term gains [4]

Group 1 - Silver prices have recently surged, breaking the $100 per ounce mark, while gold prices have also increased, nearing $5000 per ounce [1] - Since the beginning of the year, the precious metals market has shown strong upward momentum, with London silver prices rising nearly 40% and gold prices increasing over 14% [5] - Silver has historically been viewed as an "appendage" to gold, but it is now experiencing independent strong performance, with a maximum increase of over 196% in 2025, compared to gold's 64.56% increase [5] Group 2 - The recent rise in silver prices is driven by a combination of risk aversion, financial attributes, and supply-demand imbalances, with significant demand expected from the photovoltaic industry and AI infrastructure [5] - Central banks globally have reported a net purchase of 297 tons of gold in 2025, indicating steady demand for gold despite a slowdown in growth [6] - The bullish trend in precious metals is influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, economic pressures in the U.S., and geopolitical uncertainties [7] Group 3 - The price dynamics of silver are characterized by dual drivers: its financial and safe-haven attributes shared with gold, and its industrial demand as a key material in photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [7] - Future trends for gold and silver may diverge, with gold remaining strong due to monetary policy shifts and geopolitical changes, while silver's price may be more volatile due to its industrial demand [7]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily review of the precious metals industry dated January 23, 2026 [1] - The research team members include He Zhuoqiao (macro precious metals), Huang Wenxin (treasury bonds and container shipping), and Nie Jiayi (stock index) [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset but control the position size, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4][6] - Geopolitical risks may significantly increase in 2026, and the restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of global central banks will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of the precious metals sector. The precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024 [6] - The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold, but the large influx of investment funds also means significant amplification of price volatility [6] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's withdrawal of the threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries during the Davos Forum and the agreement on the future cooperation framework in Greenland and the entire Arctic region between the US and NATO led to a significant adjustment in precious metals overnight. However, media reports of the US trying to overthrow the Cuban regime and the weakness of the US real estate market helped precious metals recover most of the previous day's losses in the Asian session on the 22nd, remaining in a relatively strong operating pattern [4] Medium - term Market - Trump will focus on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere in 2026, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks [6] - The industrial demand for silver is significantly boosted by the global green energy transition, and the expected industrial demand for platinum and palladium is improved due to the EU's cancellation of the 2035 fuel - vehicle ban. The strong and rising gold price boosts the physical demand for silver, platinum, and palladium through jewelry substitution demand [6] - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset but strictly control the position size. Conservative traders can consider cross - variety arbitrage of going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium. Long hedgers should conduct hedging in batches as soon as possible, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [6] Group 5: Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 1,092.94 | 1,100.06 | 1,074.63 | 1,088.22 | - 0.43% | 369,376 | - 11,750 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 23,112 | 23,352 | 22,409 | 23,319 | 0.90% | 693,041 | 12,506 | | Guangzhou Platinum Index | 627.94 | 633.50 | 606.34 | 633.47 | 0.88% | 36,352 | - 1,071 | | Guangzhou Palladium Index | 487.24 | 487.74 | 470.95 | 484.52 | - 0.56% | 13,918 | - 5 | [5] Group 6: Main Macro Events/Data - Trump withdrew the threat of using tariffs as a bargaining chip for Greenland and ruled out the possibility of using force. An agreement to end the dispute over the Danish territory is about to be reached [18] - The US Supreme Court justices seem skeptical of Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook. Trump said he is close to selecting a new Fed chairman and prefers to keep White House economic advisor Hassett in his current position [18] - US pending home sales unexpectedly dropped to a five - month low in December. The decline of 9.3% to 71.8 was due to increased concerns in the labor market and the shortage of entry - level housing offsetting the boost from lower mortgage rates [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to adopt a bullish trading approach but control the position size, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4]. - The mid - term trend in 2026 will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but the large influx of investment funds will also lead to significant price volatility. Investors can consider cross - variety arbitrage, and long hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The easing of inflation pressure in the US in December 2025 provides a basis for the Fed's loose monetary policy in 2026. The expectation of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks drive the precious metals sector to perform strongly. London gold approaches the $4650/ounce mark, and London silver briefly breaks through the $91/ounce mark. The adjustment risk in precious metals has been fully released, and the market will continue to be strong [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The previous closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, daily change rate, open interest, and change in open interest of domestic precious metals such as Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index, and Guangzhou Palladium Index are presented [5]. - **Mid - term Market**: Geopolitical risks may rise significantly in 2026. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policy of central banks will boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of precious metals. Silver and platinum will perform better than gold, and their industrial and physical demands are expected to increase [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Global central bank presidents and Wall Street bank CEOs support Fed Chairman Powell, highlighting the importance of the Fed and central bank independence [16]. - The Trump administration allows NVIDIA to sell its second - most powerful AI chips to China, but China restricts the purchase of H200 chips [16]. - US consumer prices rose in December 2025, strengthening the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month [17]. - Venezuela's state - owned oil company reopens some oil wells and resumes crude oil exports, which may be part of a 50 - million - barrel supply agreement with the US [17].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. The report suggests that investors should adopt a bullish approach but strictly control their position sizes. Conservative traders can consider cross - commodity arbitrage strategies such as going long on silver and platinum while shorting gold and palladium. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their hedging ratios [4][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: On January 12, Asian trading hours, precious metal prices continued to strengthen. The market expects the Fed to continue its loose monetary policy in 2026, and geopolitical risks have pushed up prices. The correction at the end of December 2025 has released internal adjustment risks. In 2026, precious metals will continue to be strong. Investors are advised to trade with a bullish view and control position sizes. This week, attention should be paid to US price data, Chinese import and export data, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff measures [4]. - **Medium - term Trends**: In 2026, geopolitical risks may significantly increase. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of central banks will boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premiums of the precious metals sector. The sector will continue the upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but price volatility will also increase. Investors are advised to trade with a bullish view and control positions. Conservative traders can consider cross - commodity arbitrage [6]. Precious Metals Market Data - Domestic precious metals market data shows that on January 12, the Shanghai Gold Index closed at 1,028.89, up 1.98%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 20,909, up 11.65%; the Guangzhou Platinum Index closed at 622.66, up 3.88%; the Guangzhou Palladium Index closed at 505.71, up 1.29% [5]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US Employment Data**: In December 2025, the US added 50,000 non - farm jobs, less than the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. Wage growth was stable, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January. The probability of a rate cut in April is 45%, and it is more likely to cut rates in June [18]. - **US - Venezuela Relations**: The US may lift more sanctions on Venezuela in the coming week. Venezuela is exploring expanding diplomatic relations with the US, and the US is evaluating the possibility of "phased resumption" of embassy operations in Venezuela [18]. - **Iran Situation**: In Iran, local riots have caused more than 500 deaths. Trump has threatened to intervene, and Iran blames the US and Israel. Trump will meet with senior advisors on Tuesday to discuss options against Iran [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. Factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will drive the upward trend. However, the large influx of investment funds also means significant price volatility. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - biased trading mindset but strictly control the position size. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. For conservative traders, they can consider cross - variety arbitrage by going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The decline of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in December 2025 to 47.9% supported the market's expectation of the Fed's continued loose monetary policy. Trump's expression of the desire to annex Greenland, along with liquidity premiums and geopolitical risks, pushed the precious metals sector to continue its strong performance. However, London gold faced selling pressure around $4,500 per ounce, and the market was cautious before the release of the December non - farm payroll data. It is believed that the correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the adjustment risks accumulated within precious metals. This week, attention should be paid to the situations in Venezuela and Russia - Ukraine, the US December non - farm payroll data, and China's price and financial data [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Although Trump's 2.0 government has basically completed the internal restructuring of federal agencies and the reconstruction of the foreign trade system, Trump will still focus on promoting the MAGA reform process in 2026, with an emphasis on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of central banks around the world will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, the strategic value of rare precious metals, and liquidity premiums in the precious metals sector. In 2026, the precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold [5]. Main Macro Events/Data - **Venezuelan Situation**: Venezuelan President Maduro, who was arrested by the US, pleaded not guilty in a US court on Monday, and his wife Cilia Flores also pleaded not guilty. The next court session is scheduled for March 17. In Caracas, Maduro's vice - president Rodriguez was sworn in as the interim president of Venezuela, expressing support for Maduro but not indicating resistance to US actions. The Trump administration plans to meet with executives of US oil companies later this week to discuss increasing Venezuela's oil production after the arrest of Maduro [17]. - **US Manufacturing Index**: The US ISM manufacturing index in December dropped to 47.9, the lowest since October 2024, and it has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. New orders further shrank, and input costs continued to rise, indicating that the industry is still deeply affected by the Trump administration's import tariffs. Although the possibility of a short - term manufacturing recovery is small, economists still hope for a rebound this year as Trump's tax - cut policy takes effect [17]. - **Trump's Desire to Annex Greenland**: US President Trump has repeatedly expressed his hope to annex Greenland. He said in an interview with The Atlantic on Sunday that "we really need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defense." The leader of Greenland responded that it was enough, and Denmark's European allies also reiterated that the future of this Arctic island must be determined by its people [17].