行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 07 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 2025 年 12 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 回落至 47.9%，这支撑了市场关于美联储将 继续宽松货币政策的预期，而特朗普再次表达对吞并格陵兰岛的意愿，流动性溢 价与地缘政治风险推动贵金属板块继续偏强运行，但伦敦黄金在 4500 美元/盎司 附近遭遇抛压，市场在 12 月非农就业数据公布前较为谨慎。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经充分释放贵金属内部积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重 组、美联储宽松货币政策、全球经济增长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

贵金属日报 2026-01-06 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.93 %，报 1001.60 元/克，沪银涨 3.17 %，报 18745.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4459.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 76.51 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.17%，美元指数报 98.33 ； 昨夜公布的美国制造业 PMI 数据十分弱势，增强了市场对于后续美联储宽松货币政策的预期， 叠加海外地缘政治问题进一步冲击美元信用体系，金银价格短线走强。美国 12 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 47.9，低于预期的 48.3 和前值的 48.2。 与此同时，白银现货相关数据有所回升，一月期白银租赁利率上升至 10.25%，EFP 费率显示伦 敦银价格再度相对于纽银价格走强，印度白银的进口溢价也出现显著上升。 【策略观点】 12 月 31 日当周芝商所已连续两次提高贵金属交易的保证金水平，回顾 2011 年白银的大幅上涨 行情，芝商所连续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a "super bull" trend in 2025, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium reaching historical highs, driven by various macroeconomic factors and increased demand from central banks [1][6][11]. Price Performance - In 2025, COMEX gold and silver contracts saw annual maximum increases of 66% and 187%, respectively, while London spot gold and silver rose by 75% and 192% [1][2]. - Platinum and palladium also experienced significant gains, with NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts rising over 185% and 136%, respectively [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged in three phases throughout 2025, with notable increases in the first quarter and a subsequent high-level consolidation phase before another rise in the latter part of the year [3]. - Silver's price increase was concentrated in the fourth quarter, with COMEX silver rising from under $40/oz to $79.7/oz [4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver market faced a deficit of approximately 5,835 tons in 2025, driven by low mining output and strong demand from sectors like 5G and renewable energy [8][9]. - Platinum and palladium also faced supply shortages, with the global platinum market expected to have a supply gap of 69,200 ounces in 2025 [10]. Influencing Factors - Multiple factors supported the rise in gold prices, including risk premiums, a rate-cutting cycle, and increased central bank purchases [6][7]. - The correlation between gold and silver prices remained high, with gold's price increases often leading to similar movements in silver [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect precious metals to maintain strength into 2026, with gold potentially reaching $5,000/oz, supported by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [11][13]. - The demand for silver and platinum is anticipated to grow due to the energy transition and industrial applications, despite potential short-term corrections [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Driven by the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, gold and silver prices have continued to rise strongly, hitting new historical highs. Silver has benefited more from the Fed's loose expectations, with a significantly higher increase than gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to 61.6 [2]. - The economic data released recently do not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of the price level. The market has strengthened the expectation of a dovish new Fed chairman and the pricing of the subsequent interest - rate cut amplitude. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year [3]. - From the perspective of the overseas medium - term monetary policy trend, as the Fed cuts interest rates and expands its balance sheet simultaneously, gold and silver prices will continue to perform strongly. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.07% to 1019.60 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 5.50% to 18131.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4530.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 73.35 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.95 [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary annualized quarterly - on - quarterly value of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. The US GDP price index in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. The year - on - year value of the US PCE price index in the third quarter was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4% [3]. 3.3 Data Changes - For gold, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX gold's active contract decreased by 0.21%, the trading volume decreased by 37.91%, the position increased by 8.91%, and the inventory remained unchanged. The closing price of LBMA gold increased by 0.71%. The closing price of SHFE gold's active contract decreased by 0.58%, the trading volume decreased by 37.41%, the position decreased by 0.89%, the inventory remained unchanged, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 1.47%. The closing price of AuT + D decreased by 0.42%, the trading volume decreased by 48.02%, and the position increased by 2.11% [6]. - For silver, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX silver's active contract increased by 0.37%, the position decreased by 1.19%, and the inventory increased by 0.10%. The closing price of LBMA silver increased by 0.75%. The closing price of SHFE silver's active contract decreased by 1.20%, the trading volume increased by 1.64%, the position decreased by 3.60%, the inventory decreased by 3.35%, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 4.76%. The closing price of AgT + D decreased by 1.69%, the trading volume decreased by 50.32%, and the position decreased by 1.74% [6]. 3.4 Market Expectations - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year, as shown by the CME interest - rate observer [3]. 3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are expected to potentially exceed $100 per ounce by 2026, marking one of the largest price surges in history due to increased investment demand and tight short-term inventory [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late December, silver futures and spot prices accelerated upward, driven by a surge in investment demand and tight short-term inventory [1] - Global silver ETF holdings have significantly increased since October, with institutions and high-net-worth individuals purchasing and hoarding physical silver, which has been a key factor in driving up spot prices [1] - December is a traditional delivery month, with COMEX silver futures deliveries expected to continue until the end of the month, and recent delivery volumes have exceeded seasonal averages [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The current tight supply situation is exacerbated by global silver inventories reaching near historical lows, making it difficult to quickly alleviate the supply constraints [1] - There is increased demand not only for near-month contracts but also for longer-dated contracts, indicating that the recent price strength reflects both short-term supply-demand imbalances and medium- to long-term price expectations [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish, with silver bulls still in control, although there are signs of fatigue in the upward trend [3] - The next key upward target for silver prices is set at $75.00, while a pressure from bears could see a test of $66.75 as a critical observation point for buying interest [3] - Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain a key driving factor, with a greater than 70% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 50 basis points by 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has reached a historical high, with significant increases throughout the year, indicating strong market demand and macroeconomic factors supporting gold prices [1][6][7]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On December 24, spot gold prices peaked at $4,525.70 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately $1,880 per ounce, or over 70% [1]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise in 2026, with estimates suggesting a potential high of around $5,000 per ounce, driven by financial and industrial demand [6][8]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by expectations of continued interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [7]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with notable increases reported by major retailers: Chow Sang Sang's gold price increased by 8 yuan to 1,411 yuan per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook saw similar price hikes [3]. - The rise in gold prices has led to a cooling off of the previously popular gold recycling machines in Shanghai, despite the increased buyback price of 1,010.5 yuan per gram [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - There is a growing sentiment among gold holders that selling now may not be wise, as many regret selling their gold at lower prices earlier in the year [11]. - Some investors have exited the gold market, citing historical trends of long-term bear markets in gold prices, influenced by central bank actions [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent high of $4,374.38 per ounce, and the market sentiment is subdued as the holiday season approaches [1][2] - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than the expected 3.1%, suggesting easing inflation pressures that could support the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1][2] - Despite the weak CPI data typically favoring gold, the immediate market reaction saw gold prices initially decline before rebounding, indicating a complex market environment [2] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with prices nearing historical highs, but the environment post-2025 may not be as favorable for gold [2] - The current trading range for gold is identified as $4,375 to $4,250, with a smaller range of $4,350 to $4,280, indicating potential for high-level fluctuations [2][3] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains in a strong bullish trend, with key resistance levels at $4,360-$4,380 and support levels at $4,310-$4,290 for the upcoming week [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that global stock markets are likely to continue rising next year, but with more moderate returns due to corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer, maintain a constructive view on the stock market for 2026, anticipating sustained earnings growth [1] - Despite the ongoing bull market expansion, expected index-level returns are projected to be lower than those in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that global stock markets are expected to continue rising next year due to corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy, although returns will be more moderate compared to 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs strategists, including Peter Oppenheimer, maintain a constructive view on the stock market for 2026, anticipating continued earnings growth [1] - The report suggests that in the context of an expanding bull market, the return rates at the index level will be lower than those in 2025 [1] Group 2: Economic Projections - Economists at Goldman Sachs expect ongoing economic expansion across various regions, alongside a further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1] - The 12-month stock price forecast, weighted by regional market capitalization, predicts a 13% return in USD terms for 2026, which will increase to 15% when dividends are included [1]