Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight pullback in afternoon trading, with copper prices strengthening during the session [1] - Citigroup's copper consumption tracking indicated a mild year-on-year growth of 1% in global copper consumption for September [1] - Citigroup forecasts a continued weak year-on-year growth in copper consumption for Q4 2023, citing a stronger base in 2024 and sluggish manufacturing activity as limiting factors [1] Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) saw its gains narrow to 4.06%, while the gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.52%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.07% [1] - Long-term support for copper prices is attributed to increased market liquidity due to expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce more detailed measures to boost consumption and expand openness, indicating potential further stimulation of domestic copper consumption [1] Future Outlook - Citigroup anticipates a recovery in copper demand by 2026, supported by more accommodative fiscal policies in the U.S. and a globally looser monetary environment [1]

Core Insights - Domestic futures contracts showed a mixed performance with low sulfur fuel oil dropping over 4% and SC crude oil and fuel oil declining over 3% [1] - Precious metals like silver and tin saw significant gains, with silver rising nearly 5% and tin increasing over 2% [1] Market Performance - Low sulfur fuel oil (LU) decreased by more than 4% - SC crude oil and fuel oil fell by over 3% - Caustic soda and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dropped by more than 1% - Silver rose nearly 5%, tin increased over 2%, while gold and pure benzene saw gains of over 1% [1] Futures Contract Details - Silver futures (护银2512) reached 12,481 with a daily increase of 4.58% [2] - Tin futures (护锡2512) stood at 297,240 with a rise of 1.97% [2] - Gold futures (护金2512) were at 962.78, up by 1.72% [2] - Crude oil futures (原油2512) were priced at 449.3, down by 3.71% [2] Economic Context - The retirement announcement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic is expected to influence market expectations regarding monetary policy, potentially leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [3] - The U.S. House is set to vote on a bill to end the government shutdown, which is likely to release funds that could positively impact market liquidity and support precious metal prices [3] - The current phase of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is still in its early stages, suggesting a strategy of buying silver on dips may be beneficial [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of liquidity repair and the further deepening of expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy, the prices of gold and silver continued their strong performance. After the news of Bostic's retirement was announced, the prices of gold and silver showed strength. The House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown today, and the U.S. government is likely to reopen. The funds released from the Treasury's general account will have a positive impact on market liquidity and also support the prices of precious metals [2][3]. - Since the Fed's current easing cycle is still in its early stage, the strategy suggests buying silver on dips as it will benefit more. There is still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair downward. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 937 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11734 - 13000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.78% to 963.32 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.81% to 12508.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4201.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 53.23 dollars/ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.08%, and the U.S. dollar index at 99.49 [2]. 3.2 Key Data Changes - **Gold**: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract rose 1.65% to 4201.40 dollars/ounce, the trading volume rose 16.05% to 27.80 million lots, and the open interest rose 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. The inventory decreased by 0.08% to 1168 tons. The closing price of LBMA gold rose 0.33% to 4136.75 dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE gold contract decreased by 0.33% to 945.76 yuan/gram, the trading volume decreased by 8.42% to 41.88 million lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.20% to 35.50 million lots. The inventory remained unchanged at 89.62 tons, and the settled funds decreased by 0.53% to 537.13 billion yuan. The closing price of Au(T + D) decreased by 0.23% to 944.31 yuan/gram, the trading volume decreased by 18.05% to 51.67 tons, and the open interest decreased by 2.35% to 243.14 tons [6]. - **Silver**: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract rose 4.22% to 53.23 dollars/ounce, and the open interest rose 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. The inventory decreased by 0.08% to 14873 tons. The closing price of LBMA silver rose 0.58% to 51.54 dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE silver contract rose 1.62% to 12073.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 8.09% to 148.10 million lots, and the open interest rose 3.56% to 75.12 million lots. The inventory decreased by 1.49% to 583.06 tons, and the settled funds rose 5.25% to 244.86 billion yuan. The closing price of Ag(T + D) rose 1.91% to 12092.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 20.04% to 870.43 tons, and the open interest decreased by 3.91% to 4077.296 tons [6]. 3.3 Graphical Data - Multiple graphs show the relationships between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, exchange rates, and other factors over different time periods, including the relationships between COMEX gold price and the U.S. dollar index, COMEX gold price and real interest rate, Shanghai gold price and trading volume, etc. [8][11][16] 3.4 Internal - External Price Differences - On November 12, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX gold price difference was - 19.38 yuan/gram (- 84.68 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold price difference was - 18.04 yuan/gram (- 78.88 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX silver price difference was - 142.21 yuan/kilogram (- 0.62 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA silver price difference was - 86.84 yuan/kilogram (- 0.38 dollars/ounce) [49].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices surged significantly on November 12, with silver rising over 4% and nearing historical highs, driven by easing concerns over U.S. dollar liquidity, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and speculation regarding Federal Reserve personnel changes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price increased by $68.2, closing at $4,201.4 per ounce, marking a 1.65% rise [1]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since November 5, further supporting the upward trend in precious metals on November 12 [1]. - The announcement by Atlanta Fed President Bostic regarding his retirement in February 2026 heightened market speculation about a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy [1]. Group 2: Demand and Future Outlook - Despite a more than 4% drop in international oil prices due to OPEC's changing stance, the upward momentum in precious metals remained unaffected [2]. - Analysts believe that as the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy is expected to continue, the physical demand for precious metals remains stable, indicating strong fundamentals for gold and silver [2]. - Solomon Global market analysts suggest that unless significant changes occur, both gold and silver are likely to trend higher in the coming weeks [2].

Group 1 - India's gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are experiencing record inflows, with purchases nearing $3 billion, equivalent to approximately 26 tons of gold this year [1] - The surge in investment is attributed to historical high gold prices, central bank purchases, geopolitical and economic concerns, and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, with gold prices rising over 50% year-to-date [1] - In October, Indian gold ETFs saw an inflow of $850 million, slightly lower than the previous month's $942 million, bringing total assets to $11 billion and total gold holdings to 83.5 tons [1] Group 2 - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves stood at 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of September, marking 12 consecutive months of gold accumulation [2] - However, the monthly purchase volume has dropped to the lowest level since the resumption of accumulation in November 2024 [2]

租赁利率再起，铂价表现 强势 铂族金属周报 2025/09/27 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 供给和需求 02 市场回顾 05 月差及跨市场价差 03 库存及ETF持仓变动 01 周度评估及行情展望 钯金技术图形 周度评估及行情展望 | 铂族金属重点数据汇总 铂 金 | | 单位 CFTC报告区间为 | 2025-09-26 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-19 2025-09-16 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅度 | 月度涨跌幅度 | 进一年历史分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX铂金 | 收盘价(活跃合约) | 美元/盎司 | 1589.80 | 1419.00 | 上 涨 | 12.04% | 18.96% | 99.58% | | 成交量(五日均值) | | 手 | 38463.20 | 31371.40 | 上 ...

再次见证历史！伦敦金现和COMEX黄金期货双双创出新高。9月23日，伦敦金现最高突破3791.08美元/ 盎司，刷新历史新高，日涨幅最高1.21%，月内累计涨幅约8.7%。截至当日18时41分，伦敦金现报 3783.79美元/盎司，涨幅1.01%。COMEX黄金期货价格盘中最高达3824.6美元/盎司，最高涨幅1.31%， 月内累计涨幅约7.6%。截至当日18时41分，COMEX黄金期货报3818.5美元/盎司，涨幅1.15%。 来源：北京商报 中国央行则已连续10个月增持黄金。最新的官方储备资产数据显示，2025年8月末，中国官方黄金储备 为7402万盎司，较上月末增加6万盎司。 世界黄金协会对90多个央行的调查问卷显示，越来越多的央行在未来12个月内增持黄金的意愿非常强 烈。"这也是引发机构疯狂抢金的一个最直接的证据。"王红英分析道。 明明认为，美国长期高通胀与其财政持续扩张的趋势引发了全球央行对美元信用体系的担忧，而在这样 的环境下，黄金成为了全球央行增强自身主权信用和对冲美元信用风险的重要选择。 针对后续走势，王红英表示，从目前来看，技术性修复以后引发的短期资金疯狂的买入，以及货币宽松 和地缘政治和军 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall price of precious metals is supported. The employment and economic data in the US released last night exceeded expectations, and the independence of the Federal Reserve has been undermined, which makes it difficult to reverse the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy. The silver price is more driven by the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is believed that there may be an unexpected 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year. In this context, the increase in the silver price will be significantly greater than that of the gold price, and the gold - silver ratio will be further downward - corrected. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 770 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9135 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Precious Metal Prices**: Shanghai gold rose 0.29% to 785.02 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.90% to 9405.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.03% to 3475.20 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.03% to 39.69 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.22%, and the US dollar index was 97.92 [2]. - **Other Market Data**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 were 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 234,000. The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the US was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3% [2]. Data Comparison - **Gold Data**: The closing price of COMEX gold (active contract) was 3476.90 dollars/ounce, up 0.73%; the trading volume was 151,600 lots, up 3.12%; the open interest was 438,500 lots, down 1.71%; the inventory was 1206 tons, up 0.48%. The closing price of LBMA gold was 3407.65 dollars/ounce, up 0.93%. The closing price of SHFE gold (active contract) was 783.22 yuan/gram, up 0.26%; the trading volume was 192,100 lots, up 0.04%; the open interest was 390,400 lots, down 4.54%; the inventory was 39.5 tons, up 5.34%. The closing price of Au(T + D) was 779.86 yuan/gram, up 0.29%; the trading volume was 30.94 tons, up 13.32%; the open interest was 202.47 tons, up 1.20% [4][6]. - **Silver Data**: The closing price of COMEX silver (active contract) was 39.71 dollars/ounce, up 2.64%; the open interest was 158,500 lots, up 1.31%; the inventory was 16,087 tons, up 1.11%. The closing price of LBMA silver was 38.94 dollars/ounce, up 1.88%. The closing price of SHFE silver (active contract) was 9377 yuan/kilogram, up 0.77%; the trading volume was 583,900 lots, up 30.49%; the open interest was 763,000 lots, up 3.07%; the inventory was 1178.52 tons, up 1.12%. The closing price of Ag(T + D) was 9347 yuan/kilogram, up 0.93%; the trading volume was 475.1 tons, up 33.92%; the open interest was 3329.106 tons, down 0.76% [4][6]. Price Structure and Spread - **Gold Price Structure and Spread**: Included COMEX gold's near - far month structure, the difference between London gold spot and COMEX gold continuous one, the near - far month structure of Shanghai gold, and the difference between Au(T + D) and Shanghai gold continuous one. Also, the gold internal - external spread statistics showed that on August 28, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread of gold was - 41.86 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 12.93 dollars/ounce [17][19][53]. - **Silver Price Structure and Spread**: Included COMEX silver's near - far month structure, the difference between London silver and COMEX silver continuous one, the near - far month structure of Shanghai silver, and the difference between Ag(T + D) and Shanghai silver continuous one. The silver internal - external spread statistics showed that on August 28, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread of silver was 1.53 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.81 dollars/ounce [31][40][53].