Core Viewpoint - The unexpected employment report released by the U.S. Labor Department has created a dilemma for the Federal Reserve ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, causing anxiety among global investors [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - The core data from the report indicates that the U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 [3]. - The report also revised previous data, notably adjusting June's non-farm employment from an initial 147,000 to -13,000, marking the first negative growth since 2021 [3]. Labor Market Analysis - The current U.S. labor market is characterized by a "distorted balance," reflecting weak supply and demand [6]. - On the demand side, the employment diffusion index stands at 49.6, indicating that more companies are reducing hiring than increasing it, primarily due to high interest rates and previous tariff impacts [7][8]. - On the supply side, the willingness of individuals to seek jobs is also low, with many older workers opting for early retirement and changes in immigration policies reducing the labor force [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The labor market's supply-demand gap fell to -203,000 in August, the first negative value since May 2021, illustrating the dual weakness in both supply and demand [10]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - The employment data is just the first of several key indicators before the September FOMC meeting, including the initial non-farm adjustment on September 9, the Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 10, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11 [13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty with two potential scenarios: a "recession trade" if subsequent data shows significant downward revisions and weak inflation, or a "hawkish rate cut" if employment remains weak but inflation stays high [17][20]. - The market's expectation of nearly three rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, and if the Fed's actions do not meet expectations, both interest rates and the dollar could reverse course [20].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of potential recession, with a significant increase in the proportion of the population considering job availability as difficult [2][5] - The current unemployment rate is rising at a historically slow pace, indicating a rare transition in the labor market from supply constraints to demand constraints [3] - A fragile balance in labor supply and demand is maintained due to simultaneous reductions in labor supply from immigration policies and retirement trends, but this balance is expected to be disrupted soon [4][7] Group 2: Employment Trends - The average monthly job creation needed to maintain the current unemployment rate is estimated to be between 150,000 and 180,000, while the recent average has dropped to 120,000 [5] - The labor market is sensitive to changes in employment demand, with a risk of rapid unemployment rate increases if demand continues to decline [7] - The impact of immigration on labor supply is diminishing, and the trend of early retirements is expected to decrease as the peak retirement year of 2025 approaches [7] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - Attention is drawn to the seed and livestock sectors as significant activities in the agricultural industry during the autumn season [8] Group 4: Research and Reports - Various industry reports and discussions are scheduled, including topics on transportation, home appliances, consumer structure changes, real estate cycles, and textiles [9][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent cooling of U.S. employment data has reignited discussions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with a significant focus on the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rather than a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1][2][3] - In August, U.S. non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, and the non-farm employment figures for April 2024 to March 2025 were revised down by 911,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, indicating that while the job market is cooling, there is no evidence of large-scale layoffs or imminent recession [1][3] Group 2 - The inflation data, while not obstructing rate cuts, presents a potential rebound risk, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in August [2] - Consumer long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9% for September, marking the second consecutive month of increase [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, and a hasty 50 basis point cut could lead to greater controversy and negatively impact the credibility of the dollar [3]

美国通胀数据平稳是金融市场一直等待的降息信号。当地时间9月11日周四，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.9%，持平预期，较前值2.7%小幅回升。美国8月CPI环比0.4%，略高于预期的0.3%，较前月0.2%的增幅翻倍，使年化通胀率维持在2.9%。 市场预计在即将召开的联邦公开市场委员会会议上，美联储降息25个基点的概率为九成以上 文|《财经》特约撰稿人金焱发自华盛顿 编辑| 苏琦 美国初请失业金人数大幅上升，接下来可能会出现更多裁员。摄/金焱 美国最新通胀数据显示，约占CPI三分之一的住房成本环比上升0.4%，为年内最大环比涨幅。摄/金焱 剔除食品和能源价格不计，关键的8月核心CPI指数环比上涨0.3%，高于6月和7月的环比0.2%，12个月累计涨幅为3.1%，均符合预期。美联储官员认为核 心指标能更有效衡量长期趋势。约占CPI三分之一的住房成本环比上升0.4%，为年内最大环比涨幅，同比涨幅为3.6%。新车价格环比上升0.3%，同比上升 0.7%；二手汽车和卡车的价格指标环比上升1%，同比上升6%。 惠誉首席经济学家布莱恩·柯尔顿（Brian Coulton）对《财经 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the moderate inflation trend in the U.S. for August, driven by food and energy prices, while the transmission of tariffs remains slow, indicating that inflation will not hinder the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] - The labor market's ongoing weakness and the Fed's assessment of tariff impacts as one-time events suggest that market focus will shift to employment risks, with interest rate cut expectations likely to persist until concerns about the job market ease [2] Inflation Data Summary - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%). The core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by food and energy components, while core goods showed a slight recovery, and core services remained stable [1][2] Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods saw a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, largely influenced by a rebound in used car prices (from 0.5% to 1.0%). However, the overall core goods growth, excluding used cars, remained flat at 0.17%, indicating slow tariff transmission [1][2] - In the core services sector, rental inflation was the main contributor, but its sustainability is questionable. Air travel and hotel accommodation prices increased due to tourism demand, while other service categories like healthcare and education saw declines [2] Employment and Rate Cut Expectations - The slow transmission of tariffs combined with stable service inflation suggests that inflation will not be a barrier for the Fed's interest rate cuts, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts within the year [2] - The rise in initial jobless claims and the Fed's view of tariff impacts as temporary have shifted market attention to employment risks, with limited market sentiment disturbance from inflation [2]

Inflation and Employment Trends - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and marking the highest level in the past seven months[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with previous values[1] - The month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[1] Employment Data and Market Reactions - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged to 263,000, the highest level since June 2023, indicating significant employment risks[3] - Following the CPI release, the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve increased to 90% for September, October, and December[3] - Major U.S. stock indices rose post-CPI announcement, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 1.4% respectively[3] Core Inflation Components - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, while energy prices increased by 0.7%, driven by a notable rise in gasoline prices[2] - Core goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with clothing, new cars, and used cars showing rebounds[2] - "Super core inflation," excluding food, energy, and housing, was reported at 0.12% month-on-month, consistent with previous months[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that employment risks outweigh inflation risks, leading to expectations of rate cuts in the near term[4] - Future rate decisions will depend on whether employment data stabilizes and the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair[4]

近期，美国劳工部公布了备受瞩目的8月物价数据，这组数据恰逢美联储FOMC会议前的关键节点，成为决定本月是否启动今年首次降息的重要风向标。市 场屏息以待的CPI同比增幅最终定格在2.9%，与华尔街普遍预期完全吻合。 这一数据的发布犹如投入金融市场的重磅炸弹，瞬间点燃了投资者对降息的强烈预期，美股三大指数当天全部上涨，纳斯达克又一次破了历史最高纪录。 此前，困扰降息决策的最后一个数据障碍被清除，美联储在9月下调联邦基金利率几乎成为定局，当前市场焦点已从"是否降息"转向"降息幅度究竟是25个基 点还是50个基点"。 根据芝商所FedWatch工具实时监测，交易员们对不同情景的定价已形成清晰概率分布：9月降息25个基点的可能性高达93.9%，降息50个基点的概率则为 6.1%；至10月累计降息路径中，降息50个基点的概率达86.8%，而累计降息75个基点的概率仅为5.6%。 由此可见，最可能出现的是9月和10月各降息25个基点的"双25"组合，亦不排除单月出现50个基点的激进降息配合另一月25个基点的保守操作。 这种乐观情绪的升温，很大程度上得益于美国劳工部近期的"出色表现"。除了8月CPI数据符合预期外，上周发布的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Group 1 - The latest U.S. CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in August, matching expectations and slightly up from July's 2.7% [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-on-year in August, consistent with market estimates and July's level [2] - The housing price index contributed significantly to the price increase in August, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4% [2] Group 2 - Recent employment data indicates a cooling labor market, with initial jobless claims reaching 263,000, exceeding the market forecast of 235,000 [3] - A downward revision of non-farm payrolls shows a decrease of 911,000 jobs from initial estimates, marking the largest downward adjustment since 2000 [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are high, with a probability of 89.1%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 10.9% [3] Group 3 - The chief economist at Minsheng Bank noted a significant decline in job creation capacity in the U.S. labor market, although large-scale layoffs have not yet occurred [4] - A 25 basis point rate cut is viewed as more prudent due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the need for further evidence of recession [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. employment and inflation data, which have heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. The data indicates persistent inflation and a concerning rise in unemployment claims, suggesting potential economic challenges ahead [1][4][11]. Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from the previous value of 2.7% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with expectations [2] - The super core CPI, which excludes housing and energy service prices, saw a slowdown in growth to 3.52% [2] Employment Data Summary - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 reached 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of 235,000 [5][6] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated a mere increase of 22,000 jobs, continuing a trend of significantly slowed employment growth [7] Market Reactions Summary - Following the release of the inflation and employment data, traders increased their bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability rising from 8% to 11.9% [1][8] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut was reported at 88.1% [8] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped below 4% for the first time since April [9] Economic Outlook Summary - Analysts suggest that the inflation data indicates ongoing inflationary pressures, influenced by tariffs and rising service costs, which may exert lasting pressure on overall inflation [4][11] - The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, is expected to show a slight year-over-year increase to 3.0% [5] - Concerns about the health of the U.S. job market are growing, with indications that layoffs may be increasing as hiring slows [6][11]