Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in non-farm employment in January, with an increase of 130,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 65,000, marking the largest growth since January 2025 [2] - The private sector added 172,000 jobs in January, with a three-month average of 103,000 and a fourth-quarter average of 50,000, indicating a stabilization in the job market following signals from Powell during the January meeting [2] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed the majority of the job growth, adding 137,000 jobs, while other sectors like retail and leisure showed fluctuations but remained lower than in the first half of 2025 [5] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, benefiting from improved job demand, with stable overall unemployment numbers [6] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, with notable rebounds in the participation rates of younger age groups [6] - Job vacancies in December fell to 6.542 million, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the vacancy rate dropping below 4% for the first time since the pandemic [8] Group 3 - Average hourly earnings in January increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, while year-on-year growth slightly decreased to 3.7% [10] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was observed in the retail and financial sectors, while the lowest was in business services and healthcare [13] - Real wage growth showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% in December, indicating potential support for consumer recovery [16] Group 4 - Following the release of strong non-farm data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March dropped significantly, with probabilities for a cut in June also declining [19] - Asset prices reacted positively, with major U.S. stock indices rising and the dollar strengthening, while precious metals experienced a pullback from previous highs [19]

2月12日，国际黄金、白银现货开盘后迎来直线下跌，延续近期震荡下行态势，与此同时，美联储多位 官员接连发布最新表态，围绕降息时点、通胀走势及就业市场现状释放关键信号，直接影响市场对货币 政策的预期，进而主导贵金属价格波动，引发全球投资者密切关注。 市场对美联储降息的定价已同步调整，成为推动金银下跌的关键因素。据CME"美联储观察"数据显 示，截至目前，美联储3月降息25个基点的概率仅为5.9%，维持利率不变的概率高达94.1%；到4月累计 降息25个基点的概率为20.5%，到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为48.1%，交易员已将美联储首次降息预 期延后至7月，较此前预期大幅推迟，这与1月强劲的非农就业数据密切相关——美东时间2月11日公布 的数据显示，1月新增非农就业人口13万人，大幅高于市场预期的7万人，失业率降至4.3%，彰显美国 就业市场韧性，进一步支撑美联储维持利率不变的立场。 市场机构对此次金银下跌及降息前景也给出不同解读，保持中立博弈态势。花旗银行此前预计美联储将 从3月份开始降息，目前已调整预期至5月份；部分机构则认为，哈马克的表态强化了美联储的观望态 度，降息暂停期可能超出市场预期，短期内金银价 ...

【中信证券：依旧预计鲍威尔任期内美联储将不再降息】智通财经2月12日电，中信证券研报指出， 2026年1月美国新增非农就业人数超预期、失业率低于预期。失业率下行至4.3%，教育和保健服务业撑 起整个私人服务新增就业。美国就业市场仍以招聘收缩为主，实际裁员尚未扩散，但裁员意向有所抬 升。市场在1月非农报告发布前本更加关注2025-March基准终值修订情况，担心年度修订"破百万"。不 过，与初值相近的终值并未掀起波澜，反而是1月强于预期的就业数据使得市场降息预期下修。我们依 旧预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息，认为沃什担任美联储主席后，下半年基准情形降息1–2次25bps。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 65,000, while the cumulative revisions for November and December were down by 17,000 [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The January non-farm payrolls data suggests a gradual improvement in the labor market, although the sustainability of this trend remains to be observed [1] - The absolute level of 130,000 new jobs in January is considered relatively high, but the concentration in a few sectors, such as healthcare, raises questions about its sustainability [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The report maintains the view that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts until June, with potential cuts of 1-2 times expected after the new Fed Chair takes office [1] - Given the overall moderate inflation and improving economic growth momentum, the downside risks to the labor market have significantly decreased [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed stronger-than-expected growth in January, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000, significantly surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000 [2][3] - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.3%, below the market expectation of 4.4%, indicating an overall improvement in the employment situation [3][4] - The healthcare sector was the primary driver of job growth, adding 82,000 positions, while the social assistance sector contributed 42,000 jobs [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicated a downward revision of initial employment data by 898,000 for the year prior, aligning with Wall Street expectations [4] - Analysts noted that the strong job growth in January may stabilize the labor market, despite ongoing weaknesses, providing a more encouraging outlook for the year ahead [4] - Following the employment data release, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut were pushed back from June to July, with the probability of a rate cut in March dropping from 19.6% to 6% [5][6]

美元新债发行总量达238亿美元，其中大部分来自Alphabet的发行。互换利差总体持稳，全线较周五收 盘水平略有收窄。 美国短期和中期国债在早盘交易跑赢，此前白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特暗示未来几个月美国 就业市场可能走软。盘中美国国债大致维持了涨势，尽管早些时候的趋陡势头在日间晚些时候缓解，投 资者仍在等待Alphabet的200亿美元债券发行定价。 哈塞特称随着美国人口增长放缓，未来几个月就业人数应会减少，他补充说这不应引发恐慌，随后短债 获得提振。此前推迟发布的1月非农就业报告将于周三出炉。 纽约时间下午3点刚过，美国国债收益率接近盘中低点，全线走低至多1.5个基点。Alphabet宣布发行巨 额债券后，美国早盘长期国债表现略微滞后。 早盘的上涨主要受5年期国债期货的大宗买盘提振，但该趋陡势头晚些时候减弱。 哈塞特称随着美国人口增长放缓，未来几个月就业人数应会减少，他补充说这不应引发恐慌，随后短债 获得提振。此前推迟发布的1月非农就业报告将于周三出炉。 截至纽约时间下午3：41，美国2年期国债收益率报3.4851%； 美国5年期国债收益率报3.7429%； 美国10年期国债收益率报4.1981%； ...

来源：滚动播报 （来源：经济参考报） 美国财长贝森特8日公开表示，预计美联储即使换帅也不会很快实施缩表。此番表态正逢美国劳动力市 场复苏脆弱和多位官员支持继续降息，业界因此预计，美联储官员更倾向在近期通过降息刺激就业市 场，而对通胀予以一定容忍度。 业界认为，美联储的缩表计划面临重重阻力，既可能遭遇美联储官员的反对，金融市场也会对此做出剧 烈反应。如果新提名的美联储主席沃什迅速缩减美联储资产负债表，则很可能会推高美国长期利率，与 美国总统特朗普"迅速降低借贷成本"的期望背道而驰。贝森特判断，在未来一年时间内，美联储将细致 观察市场状况，不会在降息背景下贸然缩表。公开数据显示，美联储已将因金融危机和疫情时期实施量 化宽松政策而扩张的资产负债表缩减了约2.4万亿美元。 而在各界关注的美联储降息节奏方面，由于此前就业数据不及预期，降息预期则骤然上升。 美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利日前表示，她判断美联储可能还需要进行一次或两次降息操作，以应对 劳动力市场的疲软状况。当前，劳动者处境艰难，原因是物价上涨侵蚀了工资收入，同时新增就业机会 稀缺。 戴利称，尽管物价稳定与充分就业（美联储两大目标）之间的风险看起来"相对平衡" ...

当前市场定价显示，交易员普遍预计美联储在2026年实施两次降息，首次或在6月启动，后续不排除9月 再次调整政策利率。CME FedWatch工具数据显示，市场认为美联储3月会议维持利率不变的概率接近八 成。 不过，美元回调空间依然受限。美联储理事丽莎·库克指出，在通胀下行趋势尚未完全确认的情况下， 对通胀停滞的担忧大于对劳动力市场走弱的担忧，这一立场对美元形成支撑。此外，市场正在消化凯文 ·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席的相关影响，市场认为其倾向于维持较小规模的资产负债表，并采取 相对克制的降息路径，该预期在情绪层面对美元构成支撑。 整体来看，在就业降温带来的降息预期与美联储谨慎立场的双重作用下，美元维持高位震荡态势。 近期美国就业市场数据显露降温迹象，对美元动能形成压制，但美联储官员的谨慎政策立场令美元回调 空间受限，整体维持高位震荡格局。 美国劳工部数据显示，截至1月31日当周的初请失业金人数升至23.1万人，高于市场预期和前值。同 时，ADP数据显示，美国1月私营部门就业人数仅增加2.2万人，明显低于市场预期水平。这一系列数据 强化了市场对美国就业市场逐步降温的判断，推动投资者进一步押注美联储年内开启降息 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 2026年01月30日 美国 1 月 FOMC 会议点评 降息的"两道门槛" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 1 月 29 日，美联储议息会议宣布政策利率维持在 3.50-3.75%不变，降息暂停。 评论： 图1：1 月 FOMC 会议决议声明要点梳理 | 国信证券 | | 美联储议息会议实施说明要点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 维度 | 2026. 01 | 2025. 12 | 2025. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts is in line with market expectations, and the interest rate guidance reflects significant internal differences among officials. Powell emphasized that the current policy is not "significantly tight," and raising interest rates is not the basic assumption for anyone's next move. There is still a possibility of interest rate cuts this year, sending a dovish signal. The Fed is likely to open the window for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to the support of the short - term US economic fundamentals, the marginal mitigation of the downward risk in the employment market and the upward risk of inflation, and the better - than - expected economic resilience shown by retail sales data [1][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Decision - On the early morning of January 29, 2026, after three consecutive interest rate cuts since September 2025, the Fed suspended interest rate cuts as expected, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate at 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. Since the start of the interest rate cut cycle in September 2024, the Fed has cut interest rates by a total of 175BP [1][3]. 3.2 Interest Rate Statement - The Fed's judgment on the economic outlook has improved compared to December, especially in the employment aspect. There are still differences among officials on interest rate cuts. Milan and Waller voted against the decision. Milan has voted against four times in a row, and Waller, as a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, voted against and supported a 25BP interest rate cut. In terms of economic description, it changed from "expanding at a moderate pace" in December to "expanding at a robust pace." Regarding employment, the Fed said that "the unemployment rate has shown certain signs of stabilization." For inflation, the description changed from the trend judgment of "inflation has risen compared to the beginning of the year" in December to the absolute - level judgment of "inflation is still slightly high" [1][6][9]. 3.3 Labor Market - The downward risk of employment has been marginally alleviated, and the unemployment rate has tended to be stable. Since July 2025, the US unemployment rate has remained in the range of 4.3% - 4.5%, and the weekly initial jobless claims have not increased further. However, non - farm payrolls are still at a low level, and the scale of new jobs in the government and private sectors is relatively limited. The supply and demand sides of the employment market have slowed down, but the risk of a significant weakening has decreased significantly, reducing the need for short - term interest rate cuts and supporting the Fed's wait - and - see stance [1][11]. 3.4 Inflation - Concerns about inflation rebound have subsided, but the absolute level is still higher than the long - term target. In December, the year - on - year CPI and core CPI in the US were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, and the month - on - month were 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Among the sub - items, the prices of household goods and clothing related to tariffs in core commodities continued to rise, the prices of leisure services increased significantly, the prices of education services decreased significantly month - on - month, and housing inflation remained resilient. Although the December inflation data alleviated market concerns about inflation rebound, the absolute level of inflation has not returned to the policy target, which restricts the Fed's subsequent easing operations [1][16]. 3.5 Other Issues - Powell did not make substantial responses to political issues such as the Cook case, the Department of Justice subpoena, and the dollar fluctuation at the press conference. He has no plans for his future after his term as chairman expires in May. He also said that the lawsuit against Fed Governor Cook might be the most significant case in the Fed's history, emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence, and suggested that the next Fed chairman should stay away from elected politics [1][18].