Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the stability of the US 10-year Treasury yield, which remains around 4.42% as investors await the upcoming inflation data [1] - Analysts suggest that if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data exceeds expectations, it could reignite market speculation regarding a more hawkish interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, potentially driving yields higher and limiting the downside for the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market demonstrates strong resilience, with June employment growth exceeding expectations for the fourth consecutive month and a further decline in the unemployment rate, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach in its next interest rate decision [1][5]. Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, with April and May's non-farm employment figures revised upward by 16,000 [1][5]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2% [3][8]. - The significant growth in state and local government employment was a key driver for the better-than-expected data, while private sector employment only increased by 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased from 170.51 million to 173.38 million, with the number of unemployed individuals decreasing from 7.237 million to 7.1025 million [9]. - Disparities in unemployment rates were noted among different demographic groups, with the unemployment rate for African Americans rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites decreased to 3.6% [9]. Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Average hourly earnings rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3% and the previous month's 0.4%, with the annual wage growth rate at 3.7%, also lower than the revised 3.8% [11]. - The moderate wage growth may alleviate some inflationary pressures for the Federal Reserve [11]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the likelihood of a cut during the July 29-30 meeting dropping to near zero, while the probability for a September cut is around 75% [12]. - The market anticipates a total reduction of 50 basis points within the year, down from a prior expectation of 64 basis points [12]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures saw a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.3%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased to 4.261% [16].

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index has increased by approximately 40 points, currently reported at 97.26 [1] - US stock futures have shown a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.3% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.261%, reflecting a decrease of 0.029 (-0.68%) [4][5] Group 2 - Spot gold has decreased by approximately $15, currently priced at $3334.40 per ounce [1]

美国10年期国债收益率上涨6.7个基点，至4.359%。 美国10年国债收益率 ...

美国10年期国债收益率短线略微走低，日内整体保持将近4个基点的涨幅，在美国参议院通过全面减税 和支出法案之际，大致持稳于日高4.2769%附近。 标普500指数跌幅略微收窄至不足0.2%。 ...

美国10年期国债收益率涨2.15个基点，刷新日高至4.2495%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has dropped to its lowest level since early May, decreasing by 4.7 basis points to 4.235% [1]

Group 1 - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has reached its lowest level since early June, currently down by 4.3 basis points to 4.241% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond continues to rise, increasing by over 6 basis points to 4.418% [1] Group 1 - The US 10-year Treasury yield has shown a consistent upward trend [1]

Group 1 - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased by 3 basis points to 4.387% [1]