Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The current gold-oil price ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase during the pandemic in 2020. The pricing factors differ, with crude oil being fundamentally priced and gold being macroeconomically priced [10][12]. - Oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, slightly leading the US 10-year Treasury yield. Currently, OECD crude oil inventories are at a moderately low level, but oil prices have started to decline due to market expectations of a continued loose supply in 2026, which may exacerbate inventory accumulation [2][12]. - Gold prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors. Over the past decade, gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield. As real interest rates decline, the attractiveness of gold increases. The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut starting in September 2025, with expectations of a decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield [3][17]. - The current demand for gold is also linked to central bank purchases in emerging markets, which have increased significantly since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Emerging market central banks hold a lower proportion of gold compared to developed market central banks, making this demand a significant factor in driving gold prices [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Gold-Oil Price Ratio - The current gold-oil price ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase during the pandemic in 2020 [10]. - Oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, slightly leading the US 10-year Treasury yield, with current OECD crude oil inventories at a moderately low level [2][12]. - Market expectations of a continued loose supply in 2026 may exacerbate inventory accumulation, leading to a decline in oil prices [12][13]. 2. Pricing Mechanisms - Crude oil is fundamentally priced, while gold is macroeconomically priced [16]. - Gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield, with real interest rates impacting gold's attractiveness [3][17]. - The anticipated rate cut in the US and the expected decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield are significant for gold pricing [17]. 3. Central Bank Demand - Increased purchases of gold by emerging market central banks since the Russia-Ukraine conflict have contributed to rising gold prices [18].

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions that previously supported gold and silver prices have temporarily eased due to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is seen as a significant step towards ending the ongoing conflict [3] - The agreement, facilitated by the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, includes the release of hostages and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, leading to a reduction in market risk aversion and downward pressure on precious metal prices [3] - The strong rise of the US dollar index to a nine-week high, alongside a decline in oil prices and stable US 10-year Treasury yields, has further compounded the pressure on gold and silver prices [3] Group 2 - Despite a short-term technical correction in precious metals, the overall bullish trend remains intact, indicating that gold and silver are still in an accelerating "mature bull market" [4] - The recent upward momentum in gold prices reflects investor demand for hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, as well as a reassessment of the US dollar and Federal Reserve policy [4] - The alternating dominance of risk appetite and risk aversion suggests that gold and silver prices may maintain a high volatility pattern, with profit-taking becoming a regular occurrence [4]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by over 3 basis points to 4.117% following the release of ADP data [1] Group 1 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline, indicating potential shifts in investor sentiment and market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen below 4% following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point interest rate cut [1] Group 1 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to below 4% [1] - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has dropped to 4.18%, marking the lowest level since May 1 [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment and market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped approximately 5 basis points to below 4.26%, with an overall decline of 7.4 basis points for the day [1] - Gold prices increased by 0.3%, reaching a new daily high and approaching $3,350 [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 1.3%, the Dow Jones gained 688 points with an increase exceeding 1.5%, and the Nasdaq climbed 265 points, up over 1.1% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a shift in risk balance may necessitate adjustments to policy [1]

Economic Development - The development of the asset management industry is crucial for reducing the proportion of indirect financing, as it transforms debt into equity through mechanisms like trusts and asset management [3][4] - The current financial system in China primarily supports indirect financing, with a significant reliance on bank loans, while the need for equity capital remains unmet [4][5] - The asset management sector has seen growth but requires further reform, particularly in legal frameworks, to enhance its role in supporting the real economy [6][8] Capital Market and Financing - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the capital market's foundational systems and increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing [4] - As of June 2023, the total stock of RMB loans reached 228.86 trillion, with an increase of 16.43 trillion from December 2022, while A-share equity financing in the first half of 2023 was 587.1 billion, a decrease of 353 billion from the second half of 2022 [4] - Despite efforts to promote direct financing, indirect financing remains dominant in social financing, indicating a need for more effective measures to enhance equity financing [4][5] Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with the IMF projecting growth rates of 3.0% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, indicating potential recessionary conditions [8][9] - Current global inflation poses challenges, with the need for careful monetary policy to avoid exacerbating economic downturns [8][9] - The trend of de-globalization is emerging, impacting global supply chains and economic efficiency, necessitating a reevaluation of economic strategies [9][10] Financial System and Risk Management - The financial system's primary role is to serve the real economy, with a focus on managing risks effectively [12] - The recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD by 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year raises concerns about currency stability and its impact on asset prices [12][13] - Recommendations suggest prioritizing foreign exchange reserves over currency stabilization, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reserves as a more critical factor [13]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.32%, marking the highest level since August [1] Group 2 - The increase in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment and market conditions [1] - This rise in yield could have implications for various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rates [1] - The current yield level reflects broader economic trends and expectations regarding inflation and monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the preference for duration in the market has increased, particularly for fixed-rate preferred stocks, due to a shift in the U.S. Treasury market dynamics [2][4]. - The report highlights that the demand for $25 fixed-rate preferred stocks has reached a nine-month high, surpassing the demand for $1,000 floating-rate preferred stocks, with the former rising by 2.9% in the second half of the year compared to a 0.9% increase for the latter [4][8]. - The report indicates that despite the rising demand and yields, $25 preferred stocks remain cheaper than $1,000 preferred stocks, with a spread of approximately 63 basis points, which is in the 84th percentile since 2012 [8]. Group 2 - For cautious investors, the report suggests focusing on older $1,000 preferred stocks, which have lower yields but shorter durations and lower interest rate sensitivity, providing a yield premium of over 100 basis points compared to investment-grade bonds [14]. - The report notes that the average back-end spread for newly issued preferred stocks in 2025 is only 275 basis points, the narrowest on record, indicating a potential increase in extension risk [14][17].

Group 1 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to record its largest single-day decline since mid-April [1]