Core Insights - The current gold-oil ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase of crude oil during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, indicating a significant divergence in pricing factors between crude oil, which is fundamentally priced, and gold, which is macroeconomically priced [1] Group 1: Relationship Between Gold, Oil, and the Dollar Index - Gold prices have a long-term negative correlation with the dollar index, as shown in regression analyses from 1986-2000, 2000-2020, and 2021-2025 [2] - The relationship between oil prices and the dollar index changed post-2020, with historical data indicating a positive correlation from 1988-2000, a negative correlation from 2000-2020, and a return to positive correlation from 2021 onwards [2] Group 2: Historical Context of Gold-Oil Ratio - The dynamics of the gold-oil ratio have shifted since 2000, with a tendency for oil prices to be inversely related to gold prices, particularly when the dollar index is weak [4] - Historically, extreme high values of the gold-oil ratio have coincided with significant declines in oil prices, with subsequent recoveries marked by improvements in the real economy [4] - Following extreme value regressions, gold prices tend to peak 4-5 months later, as evidenced by past trends in 2016 and 2020, where oil price recoveries signaled economic rebounds [4] Group 3: Attributes of Gold and Oil - Gold possesses financial attributes, while oil is characterized by its strong physical attributes, influencing their respective market behaviors [5]

天风证券近日发布石油石化行业专题研究：当前金油比价是历史次高，仅次于2020年疫 情原油胀库负价格阶段。我们认为定价因素差异在于原油是基本面定价，黄金是宏观定价。 过去十年，油价紧跟基本面（OECD原油库存）：当下OECD原油库存处于中等偏低水平， 但是油价率先下跌，因为市场预期2026年原油基本面持续宽松会加剧累库。 以下为研究报告摘要： 金油比价，当下较大分化怎么解释？ 当前金油比价是历史次高，仅次于2020年疫情原油胀库负价格阶段。我们认为定价因素 差异在于原油是基本面定价，黄金是宏观定价。 油价跟随基本面，略微领先US10Y 过去十年，油价紧跟基本面（OECD原油库存）：当下OECD原油库存处于中等偏低水 平，但是油价率先下跌，因为市场预期2026年原油基本面持续宽松会加剧累库。 过去十年，油价和US10Y呈现略微领先的正向关系：原油累库预期→油价下跌预期→通 胀压力缓解预期→降息预期。 过去十年，金价与美国10年期国债收益率几乎呈负相关：黄金作为无息资产，其机会成 本和实际利率水平相关，当实际利率下降时，黄金的吸引力提升，反之则下降。美国从2025 年9月开始降息25个基点，市场普遍预期美国进入降息 ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 金油比价明显分化怎么解释？ 金油比价，当下较大分化怎么解释？ 当前金油比价是历史次高，仅次于 2020 年疫情原油胀库负价格阶段。我们 认为定价因素差异在于原油是基本面定价，黄金是宏观定价。 油价跟随基本面，略微领先 US10Y 过去十年，油价紧跟基本面（OECD 原油库存）：当下 OECD 原油库存处于 中等偏低水平，但是油价率先下跌，因为市场预期 2026 年原油基本面持续 宽松会加剧累库。 过去十年，油价和 US10Y 呈现略微领先的正向关系：原油累库预期→油价 下跌预期→通胀压力缓解预期→降息预期。 过去十年，金价与美国 10 年期国债收益率几乎呈负相关：黄金作为无息资 产，其机会成本和实际利率水平相关，当实际利率下降时，黄金的吸引力提 升，反之则下降。美国从 2025 年 9 月开始降息 25 个基点，市场普遍预期 美国进入降息周期，债券市场对降息预期的定价最为敏感，市场主流预期美 国 10 年期国债收益率下降。 本轮金价和新兴国家央行需求相关：自俄乌战争发生之后，新兴市场央行加 大购买黄金的力度，相较于发达市场央行持有的黄金比例较低，央行需求的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a "slow bull" trend over the past year, driven by the rise of China's new economy, a systematic decline in risk-free interest rates, and deepening capital market reforms. The market's profitability has attracted significant capital inflow, alongside a marginal easing of China-US trade relations and expectations of global liquidity easing due to potential Fed rate cuts. The current market presents both opportunities and risks, emphasizing the need for "rational investment" and a focus on long-term wealth accumulation through deep research and balanced asset allocation [1]. Group 1 - The overall valuation is manageable with internal differentiation, facilitating a healthy rotation among sectors. The current PEttm of the Wind All A Index is around 16-17 times, close to the historical average and not reaching the peaks of 2007, 2009, or 2015. New economy sectors like renewable energy, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption are seeing upward valuation trends, while traditional sectors like banking, real estate, and infrastructure remain undervalued, providing a solid foundation for rotation under stable growth expectations [2]. - The increasing proportion of new economy sectors, supported by traditional sectors, provides long-term upward momentum. The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange, along with registration system reforms, has allowed many innovative companies to enter the capital market, enhancing upward elasticity. Additionally, policies promoting carbon neutrality and reducing competition have strengthened the profitability and stability of leading companies in traditional sectors, acting as a stabilizing force for the market [2]. - The growing presence of professional investors has shifted the market towards rational, long-term, and stable investment styles. The continuous growth of domestic public fund sizes and the increasing proportion of long-term capital from insurance and pension funds have led institutional investors to focus more on fundamental research and long-term holdings, changing the market's speculative behavior and reducing impulsive trading [2]. Group 2 - Recent increases in indices like the CSI 300, ChiNext, STAR 50, and North Exchange 50 have primarily been driven by valuation expansion. This valuation increase is supported by new capital inflows, with 196.36 million new A-share accounts opened in July, a year-on-year increase of 70.5%. The margin trading balance has remained above 1.9 trillion for 29 consecutive trading days, with financing purchases accounting for about 9% of A-share trading volume [10]. - Investor optimism regarding future growth has led to unsustainable high growth assumptions in high-growth sectors like AI, renewable energy, and biotechnology. In August, sectors such as defense, electronics, and computing exhibited significantly higher PEttm ratios compared to others, indicating speculative trading behavior. The shift from earning money through company growth to profiting from valuation increases has raised concerns about stability and safety [10]. - In the context of a slow bull market, maintaining rational investment principles is crucial. Key principles include diversifying asset allocation, focusing on intrinsic value, and minimizing exposure to market noise. Maintaining a cash position of 10-20% can enhance investment experience and prevent forced selling of quality assets during market downturns [15][16][17].

Group 1: Market Changes and Impacts - The U.S. government announced that it will not impose tariffs on imported refined copper and other input materials, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices by over 18% [1][2] - Following the tariff announcement, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowed from $2,700/ton to below $300/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, which contributed to the accumulation of COMEX copper inventories [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with domestic refined copper production increasing due to high sulfuric acid prices, while downstream demand remains subdued [4] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the second half of the year suggests that copper prices will face downward pressure, although lower prices may stimulate buying from downstream consumers [5] - The recent decline in U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data has raised concerns about a potential economic recession, which could negatively impact copper prices in the short term [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is Neutral to Bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, PVC production has increased, and the industry chain continues to accumulate inventory, increasing pressure on PVC. Recently, low - valued varieties are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly with the previous upward movement of the futures market. It is expected that as September approaches, pricing will return to fundamentals [3] - The 9 - 1 month spread has been oscillating weakly recently [3] - Overseas uncertainties are high, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Materials (Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide) - Lanthanum Coke: The operating rate of sample enterprises remained stable at 39.14%, and the price of Shenmu medium - grade lanthanum coke was reported at 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6] - Calcium Carbide: Supply slightly increased, with the operating rate rising 0.9 percentage points to 72.2% (medium - low overall). The price of Wuhai calcium carbide dropped to 2225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from last week, and the profit was - 306 yuan [12] 3.2 PVC Supply - The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.81%, a 0.84 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 79.21%, up 1.69 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 66.95%, down 1.36 percentage points. Tianjin Dagu plans to start mass production in August, and Haijing plans to start production at the end of August [3][17] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - Downstream product operating rates: Pipe operating rate was 32.52% (- 1.23%), and profile operating rate was 38.00% (+ 3.45%), both lower than the same period last year [25] - Exports: From January to June, PVC powder exports were 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 66 million tons (+ 50.7%), but exports weakened significantly in June. From January to June, PVC powder imports were 12.42 million tons, basically the same as last year. From January to June, cumulative floor exports were 209 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [61][62][64] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory increased to 63.12 million tons, an increase of 2.21 million tons from the previous period. Among them, East China sample inventory was 58.72 million tons, up 2.16 million tons, and South China sample inventory was 4.40 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. Upstream factory inventory decreased to 37.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.32 million tons from the previous period. The industry chain inventory increased [32][33] 3.5 PVC Profit - Calcium - carbide integration losses slightly narrowed. Xinjiang integration profit was - 290 yuan/ton, and Northwest integration profit was - 767 yuan/ton. The profit of the purchased calcium - carbide method rebounded. The profit of the Northwest purchased calcium - carbide method was - 114 yuan/ton, and that of the North China purchased calcium - carbide method was - 393 yuan/ton [43] - The profit of the purchased ethylene method slightly rebounded. East China ethylene - based profit was 463 yuan/ton, and North China ethylene - based profit was 613 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week [46] - Comprehensive profit strengthened. Northwest comprehensive profit was 684 yuan/ton and continued to increase. Shandong comprehensive profit was 160 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference increased by 210 to 3459 yuan/ton [55] 3.6 Related Commodities - Since 2024, real - estate demand has continued to weaken, cement prices have declined, and the operating rate has remained low [68] 3.7 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures market strengthened. The 09 contract rose from 4937 last week to 5149 at the last closing. The 9 - 1 month spread weakened to - 128. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, reaching 56,410 on July 28, an increase of 1770 from last week [79] 3.8 PVC Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows monthly production, demand, imports, exports, inventory changes, year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and demand from 2024 to 2025 [81]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark and trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan [2] - The financial sector has led the market rally, supported by a surge in short-term capital chasing high-performing stocks as semi-annual earnings forecasts are released [2] - Institutions suggest that investors should shift from a trading strategy to a holding strategy in light of the market's transition from a stock-based to an incremental market [4][5] Group 2 - Positive factors for the A-share market continue to accumulate, with strong risk appetite reflected in trading behavior and capital flows [3] - The market is increasingly focusing on fundamental factors rather than external disturbances, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics [3] - The strong upward trend in the A-share market is expected to continue, with significant conditions for a major rally accumulating [3] Group 3 - The market has seen a shift from net outflows to net inflows in actively managed public funds since June, marking a reversal in the trend of capital withdrawal [4] - Different sectors, including non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and gaming, have shown synchronized upward movement, indicating the presence of incremental capital across various funding entities [5] Group 4 - The performance of semi-annual earnings is crucial for trading strategies, with sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to perform well [6] - High-growth industries such as automotive parts, automation equipment, and consumer goods are recommended for investment, alongside sectors with improving performance like precious metals and pharmaceuticals [6] - Predictions indicate that industries such as light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials may experience high growth rates in their semi-annual earnings [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Bearish consolidation. Geopolitical risk premium has been squeezed out, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is increasing production, and although it's the consumption peak season, increasing production will put downward pressure on prices. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection [1][6]. - **LPG**: Weak. Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price, and cost reduction due to falling oil prices, although downstream chemical demand is rising and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Lightly short [1][9]. - **L**: Bearish consolidation. Device restarts are increasing, with production expected to rise this week. New device launches are planned in the medium - long term, and demand is in the off - season. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][11]. - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. Downstream orders are weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][14]. - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new device launches are planned in the long term. Strategy: Short on rebounds, pay attention to pressure at integer levels [1][17]. - **PX**: Bullish. PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase, and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on dips [1][19]. - **PTA/PR**: Short - term bullish. Supply pressure is expected to increase, but inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Strategy: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities [1][25]. - **Glass**: Under pressure and falling back. Market risk appetite has recovered, but medium - term demand shrinkage has not been alleviated, and cost has decreased. Strategy: Be cautious with long positions [3][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds. Supply is slightly reduced, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Short on rebounds [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: Back to weakness. Supply is high, demand is weak, and cost support is shifting down. Strategy: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. - **Methanol**: Short on rebounds. Supply is increasing, demand feedback is negative, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract [3][36]. - **Urea**: Short on rebounds. Supply pressure remains high, although demand from exports is growing. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities [3]. - **Asphalt**: Weak. Cost reduction due to falling oil prices, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Lightly short [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were weakly volatile. WTI fell 0.63%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC fell 1.21% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risk has eased, and OPEC+ may increase production in August. Supply from Guyana is increasing, while global demand growth has slightly decreased. US crude inventory decreased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, supply is in excess, and the price range is expected to be $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, it is weakly volatile. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focus range: [490 - 510] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 30, the PG main contract closed at 4235 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Falling oil prices and Saudi Arabia's price cut have put pressure on LPG. PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil开工 rates are rising, but PDH device profit has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the upstream oil supply is in excess, and LPG is over - valued. Technically, it is weak. Strategy: Lightly short or buy put options. PG focus range: [4130 - 4250] [9]. L - **Market Review**: Price and position data of different contracts showed slight fluctuations [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, supply is expected to increase due to device restarts, and demand is in the off - season. New devices are planned in July - August [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7150 - 7350] [11][12]. PP - **Market Review**: Prices of different contracts and spot markets declined slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Export profit is negative [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7000 - 7150] [14][15]. PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new devices are planned in the long term. The market is in the off - season, and exports are still supported [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, pay attention to integer - level pressure. Short - term participation. Risk: Macro - systematic risk. Focus range: [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 7145 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 6752 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase due to PTA device restarts and new capacity launches, and inventory is decreasing. PXN and basis are high [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [6780 - 6930] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 5025 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4778 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity launches, while demand from the downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries is weakening. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread. Focus range: [4790 - 4880] [22][23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 4340 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4271 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Geopolitical risks still exist [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [4230 - 4300] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has widened [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have decreased, and domestic policies have boosted market sentiment. Supply is at a low level, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals are weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1010 - 1030], with weak support at the 5 - day moving average [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices have been lowered, and the main contract basis has widened [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has slightly decreased, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. The price is sensitive to policies and costs [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1185 - 1220], rebound within the range [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has weakened [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is high, demand from the main downstream (alumina) is weakening, and cost support is shifting down. There is an inventory reduction expectation during the maintenance season [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 2638 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton. The basis is high [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is increasing, overseas device loads are low, and 7 - month arrivals may be lower than expected. Demand feedback is negative, but traditional demand is rising. Inventory is slightly accumulating [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract. Focus range: [2360 - 2420] [36][37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, although fertilizer exports are growing. Cost support still exists [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [1700 - 1740] [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, oil prices have fallen, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short. Focus range: [3500 - 3600] [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that crude oil futures continue to decline, with SC crude oil dropping over 8% [1] - Analysts suggest that if geopolitical conflicts show signs of easing, crude oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamental pricing [1] - In the short term, geopolitical tensions may still persist, leading to a volatile oil price environment [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the next month or so, the market may focus more on fundamentals and likely continue to show defensive characteristics. It is recommended to increase exposure to convertible bonds that benefit from domestic demand stimulus, are insensitive to external demand, have technological growth potential, and have relatively stable fundamentals [1][2]. - The reasons for the market's short - term preference for fundamentals include the upcoming implementation of the new Nine - Point Regulations based on 2024 financial reports, potential rating downgrades of convertible bonds after annual report disclosures, and the impact of overseas tariff risks on domestic risk appetite and fundamentals. However, the risk of a sharp decline in the equity market in the short term is limited, and the upward repair trend may continue [2]. - Short - term investors are advised to focus on high - grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds, which may benefit from incremental capital inflows. Convertible bonds related to consumer electronics, home appliances, and home furnishings that benefit from consumption subsidies can also be appropriately considered. For new - quality productivity - related convertible bonds, high - priced targets can be appropriately liquidated for profits, and those that have been fully adjusted in the short term can be bought at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Market Observation - In the past week (April 28 - April 30), most convertible bond indices declined, except for the optional consumer industry index of convertible bonds, bonds rated AA - and below, the high - price index of convertible bonds, and the small - cap convertible bond index, which rose. In terms of valuation, both bond - like and equity - like valuations were compressed. The median price of the convertible bond market slightly decreased to 119.23 yuan, at the 74.65% level since 2017 [1]. 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - Provided the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the WanDe Convertible Bond Energy Index, which declined by 0.72% in the past week, - 0.04% in the past two weeks, - 1.43% since March, - 1.91% in the past month, - 1.43% in the past two months, increased by 3.20% in the past six months, and 2.51% in the past year [11]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only mentioned figures related to the top and bottom five gainers and losers of individual bonds and their underlying stocks in the past week [16][23]. 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only mentioned figures related to the valuation trends of bond - like, balanced, and equity - like convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [24][26]. 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only mentioned figures related to the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities, the proportion trends of high - price and low - price bonds, the proportion trend of bonds below the bond floor, and the median price trend of the convertible bond market [33][35].