最弱的板块是：黑色系（铁矿）、农产品（生猪） 核心多单品种：沪铜、PVC、氧化铝 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来自公众号：懒人财知道 关注免费领取全球研报特权 今日板块较强的是：有色金属、能化板块（部分品种）、航运板块 核心空单品种：生猪2603、铁矿石2605 结论：聚焦产业基本面驱动，采取"多头抓供需缺口、空头踩过剩周期"的对冲策略，严格控制多空仓位 配比，规避宏观情绪扰动带来的系统性风险 全球形势：美联储政策预期剧烈反转，特朗普提名沃什为美联储主席人选引发市场震动，其"降息+激 进缩表"的核心主张推升美元走强，叠加前期贵金属等品种涨幅过大、投机资金拥挤，触发集中获利了 结与被动平仓，导致商品市场剧烈分化。当前市场已从"金融属性主导"回归"基本面定价"，地缘风险、 流动性收缩与实体需求的博弈加剧，波动率飙升至历史高位，单一趋势逻辑失效，品种分化成为核心特 征。国内复工复产节奏超预期支撑工业金属与部分能化品需求，而黑色系库存高企、农产品产能过剩格 局未改，形成多空对冲的市场基础。 一、核心品种策略参考 （一）多头策略布局 1． PVC2603 初始策略：逢低建仓，仓 ...

责任编辑：陈平 1月26日，全球资产配置格局正迎来深度重构，GTC泽汇资本观察到，黄金价格飙升并成功站稳 5000 美 元/盎司上方，这已被市场界定为一种持久的"制度性转变"。在当前复杂的国际环境下，投资者愈发坚 定地将黄金视为应对地缘风险、各国央行战略性增持以及美元购买力走弱的核心对冲标的。 在对加密货币市场的流动性分析中，比特币目前在 87000 美元附近的滞涨反映了市场内部结构的脆弱 性。链上监控数据显示，长期持仓者正利用每一次价格反弹进行减持套现，而 GTC泽汇资本表示， 2025 年高位入场的新手投资者则在盈亏平衡线下艰难支撑，这种筹码转换的压力显著抑制了市场的向 上动力。 针对衍生品市场的表现，GTC泽汇资本认为，当前的低成交量与低杠杆状态预示着投机热度的消退。特 别是 100000 美元上方堆积的密集供应区，使得多头反攻屡屡受挫。以太坊等高贝塔系数资产的持续走 弱，也侧面印证了资金对于高风险资产的配置正趋于保守。 关于宏观资金的流向，黄金正成为吸纳全球宏观压力的主要"避风港"，而比特币仍处于消化内部供应 的"休整期"。预测市场 Polymarket 的数据也显示，交易员们押注黄金在年中维持在 5 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market faced dual shocks in Q4 2025, with both performance and market conditions deteriorating [1][2] - The market logic has shifted from previous trends of declining interest rates to a deeper exploration of the operational quality of underlying assets [2][7] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, 77 public REITs reported a total revenue of 5.913 billion yuan, but net profit fell to 526 million yuan, marking a 42.83% decline from Q3's 920 million yuan [3] - The net profit in Q4 2025 was the lowest of the year, with earlier quarters showing higher profits of 840 million yuan and 763 million yuan in Q1 and Q2 respectively [3] - 58 out of 77 public REITs (75%) were profitable in Q4, with 26 products exceeding 10 million yuan in net profit [3] Market Trends - The overall REITs index declined by 4.37% in Q4 2025, reflecting a weak secondary market [4] - Transaction activity showed structural differentiation, with transportation infrastructure leading at 6.494 billion yuan, followed by park and consumer infrastructure [4] - New infrastructure sectors, particularly data centers, performed well, with average gains of 4.94% [4] Market Development - Over the past four years, REITs have exhibited risk-return characteristics between stocks and bonds, with overall performance surpassing major equity assets [5][7] - The market has transitioned through various phases, from exploration to value recovery, and now to normalized issuance and a bull market driven by declining interest rates [6][7] Future Outlook - The long-term potential for public REITs remains positive, supported by ongoing policy initiatives, including the introduction of commercial real estate REITs [7][8] - The market is expected to see stable growth in the number and scale of REITs, with total market value projected to increase from over 200 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan in the next five years [8] - Investment strategies should focus on high-quality assets with stable cash flows and growth potential, particularly in sectors benefiting from policy support [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the natural rubber market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. RU has low valuation and cost - side support but weak buying, while dark - colored rubbers like 20 - gauge rubber rely on downstream demand. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutrally bearish due to supply pressure and uncertain demand [1][2] - The market has shifted from macro - driven to fundamentals - driven pricing. The current fundamentals show mixed signals, with some positive factors in the upstream and downstream but also significant supply and demand pressures [1] - Trade policies and international situations pose risks to the long - term demand for rubber, and downstream tire enterprises may restructure the supply - demand distribution of rubber [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: After the initial rise, rubber prices retraced due to the fading of macro - positive sentiment. The fundamentals show that although RU has cost - side support, the buying is weak, and 20 - gauge rubber depends on downstream demand. The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, dragging down the price of the rubber system [1] - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand needs continuous macro - positive support, and the export growth faces risks such as international situations and trade barriers [1][2] - Proximal trading: The price difference between Indonesian standard rubber and other standard rubbers has widened slightly, providing some support to NR. The risk of near - month delivery is small, but there is still an anti - arbitrage space for some standard rubbers [7] - Distal trading: The weather in production areas has improved, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory in Qingdao has started to accumulate, increasing the supply pressure. The macro situation still has uncertainties, and the long - term demand may lead to a restructuring of the rubber supply - demand distribution [10] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillation range for RU2601 is 14800 - 15400; for NR2511, it is 12000 - 12400 [15] - **Trend Judgement**: It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the fundamentals as the main pricing factor. The support for RU01 is around 14600, and the pressure is around 15600; for NR12, the support is around 11800 [15] - **Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, consider small - scale long - position trading when RU01 stabilizes. For hedging, combine with protective options or consider a long - volatility strategy. For basis trading, consider reverse arbitrage for some varieties. For calendar spread arbitrage, hold long - spread positions for RU and consider long - spread positions for NR11 - 01. For variety arbitrage, consider widening the spread at low levels [16] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14800 - 15700, and for 20 - gauge rubber NR, it is 11900 - 12900 [22] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short - sell rubber futures, buy out - of - the - money put options, and sell call options. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buy long - term rubber futures and out - of - the - money call options, and sell put options [22] 3.2 Important Information and Attention Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories decreased, the Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved results, the global automotive supporting demand was good, the Fed cut interest rates, the "15th Five - Year Plan" policies were introduced, and the demand for winter snow tires increased [24][25][26] - **Negative Information**: The Fed's decision on future interest rate cuts is uncertain, the increase in rubber prices has brought supply - demand pressure, the manufacturing PMI in China declined, the tire and automobile inventories are under pressure, and the weather may have a certain impact on production [27] 3.2.2 This Week's Attention Focus - Monitor the rainfall in production areas, changes in dry - rubber social inventory, downstream tire start - up conditions, and important macro data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and China's PPI and CPI reports [28] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, rubber prices first rebounded and then declined. RU and NR found support at around 15000 and 12000 respectively. The liquidity problem of 20 - gauge rubber has been alleviated, and the spot price is still stronger than the disk price. RU's position remained flat, while NR's position continued to decrease [29] - **Capital Trend**: Since last Thursday, the short positions of RU and NR have increased, and the net positions have decreased [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: Last Friday, most spot prices fell, except for the increase in the price of whole milk latex. Among standard rubbers, the price of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [35] - **Basis Structure**: The spread between whole milk latex and smoked sheet rubber narrowed, the basis of whole milk latex remained flat, and the basis of smoked sheet rubber decreased. The basis of some standard rubbers rebounded, and the term structure of NR has changed from a deep back to a shallower one [37][42] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The calendar spread structure of RU changed little, and the center of gravity moved up slightly. The price of NR decreased, and the back structure became shallower, reflecting weak market expectations [42] - **External Market Conditions**: The price of Thai smoked sheet rubber increased, driving the near - month contracts of Japanese RSS3 to strengthen, and the monthly spread structure became flatter. The price and structure of Singapore TSR20 rubber changed little [48] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Recently, the sentiment in the rubber market has fluctuated greatly. The bullish sentiment rose and then fell last week, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was weak. The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU continued to rise, while that of NR decreased [57] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between light - colored and dark - colored rubbers widened and then stabilized. The spread between natural and synthetic rubbers increased and then corrected, dragging down the price of natural rubber [60][64] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: Last week, rainfall in Hainan, Yunnan, and southern Thailand affected the supply, and raw material prices were firm. The price difference between water and cup in Thailand rebounded [66] - **Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber**: The delivery profit of whole milk latex and the profit of TSR9710 both decreased significantly [73] - **Processing Profit - Imported Rubber**: The overall center of rubber prices moved up last week. The import profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber remained flat, while the profits of 20 - gauge standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased [75] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: The supply of natural rubber in major producing countries is expected to increase, and the weather in some areas has improved, which is conducive to production [10] - **Import Situation**: In September, the import of natural and synthetic rubber in China increased steadily. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while the import of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly [79] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Major Producing Countries**: In August, the actual consumption of natural rubber in China remained stable year - on - year, while the demand in major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia declined [86] - **Tire Production and Sales**: The demand for winter snow tires has increased, and most tire enterprises' start - up rates have remained stable. The inventory of semi - steel tires has decreased, while that of all - steel tires has increased slightly. The export of domestic tires has shown strong resilience but has declined month - on - month [91] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [96] - **Supporting Demand**: Domestic automobile sales have performed well, and the supporting demand for tires is expected to remain resilient. However, the long - term increase in the demand for truck - related tires may be limited [98][99] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has remained stable overall, with strong performance in all - steel tires and a year - on - year decrease in semi - steel tires. Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [102] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite the decline in automobile sales. The production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable, and the production of commercial vehicles has decreased. The automobile production in Japan and South Korea has shown different trends [104] - **Demand for Other Rubber Products**: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has weakened, while that of rubber tubes is slightly higher than that of last year [111] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: Affected by the weather, the RU warehouse receipts have continued to decline, while the NR warehouse receipts have increased due to stable imports and weak downstream procurement [116] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory [118]

Core Insights - The current gold-oil ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase of crude oil during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, indicating a significant divergence in pricing factors between crude oil, which is fundamentally priced, and gold, which is macroeconomically priced [1] Group 1: Relationship Between Gold, Oil, and the Dollar Index - Gold prices have a long-term negative correlation with the dollar index, as shown in regression analyses from 1986-2000, 2000-2020, and 2021-2025 [2] - The relationship between oil prices and the dollar index changed post-2020, with historical data indicating a positive correlation from 1988-2000, a negative correlation from 2000-2020, and a return to positive correlation from 2021 onwards [2] Group 2: Historical Context of Gold-Oil Ratio - The dynamics of the gold-oil ratio have shifted since 2000, with a tendency for oil prices to be inversely related to gold prices, particularly when the dollar index is weak [4] - Historically, extreme high values of the gold-oil ratio have coincided with significant declines in oil prices, with subsequent recoveries marked by improvements in the real economy [4] - Following extreme value regressions, gold prices tend to peak 4-5 months later, as evidenced by past trends in 2016 and 2020, where oil price recoveries signaled economic rebounds [4] Group 3: Attributes of Gold and Oil - Gold possesses financial attributes, while oil is characterized by its strong physical attributes, influencing their respective market behaviors [5]

Group 1 - The current gold-oil price ratio is at its second-highest level in history, only behind the negative pricing phase during the 2020 pandemic, indicating significant divergence in pricing factors [1][2] - Oil pricing is fundamentally driven, while gold pricing is influenced by macroeconomic factors [2][4] Group 2 - Over the past decade, oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, particularly OECD crude oil inventories, which are currently at a moderately low level [3] - Despite the low inventory levels, oil prices have started to decline due to market expectations of a continued loose fundamental environment for crude oil through 2026, leading to increased inventory accumulation [3] Group 3 - Gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield over the past decade, as gold is a non-yielding asset whose attractiveness is linked to real interest rates [4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts in the US starting September 2025, with a 25 basis point reduction, are expected to enhance gold's appeal as market expectations shift towards a rate-cutting cycle [4] Group 4 - The demand for gold from emerging market central banks has increased significantly since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The current gold-oil price ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase during the pandemic in 2020. The pricing factors differ, with crude oil being fundamentally priced and gold being macroeconomically priced [10][12]. - Oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, slightly leading the US 10-year Treasury yield. Currently, OECD crude oil inventories are at a moderately low level, but oil prices have started to decline due to market expectations of a continued loose supply in 2026, which may exacerbate inventory accumulation [2][12]. - Gold prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors. Over the past decade, gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield. As real interest rates decline, the attractiveness of gold increases. The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut starting in September 2025, with expectations of a decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield [3][17]. - The current demand for gold is also linked to central bank purchases in emerging markets, which have increased significantly since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Emerging market central banks hold a lower proportion of gold compared to developed market central banks, making this demand a significant factor in driving gold prices [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Gold-Oil Price Ratio - The current gold-oil price ratio is at a historically high level, second only to the negative pricing phase during the pandemic in 2020 [10]. - Oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, slightly leading the US 10-year Treasury yield, with current OECD crude oil inventories at a moderately low level [2][12]. - Market expectations of a continued loose supply in 2026 may exacerbate inventory accumulation, leading to a decline in oil prices [12][13]. 2. Pricing Mechanisms - Crude oil is fundamentally priced, while gold is macroeconomically priced [16]. - Gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield, with real interest rates impacting gold's attractiveness [3][17]. - The anticipated rate cut in the US and the expected decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield are significant for gold pricing [17]. 3. Central Bank Demand - Increased purchases of gold by emerging market central banks since the Russia-Ukraine conflict have contributed to rising gold prices [18].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a "slow bull" trend over the past year, driven by the rise of China's new economy, a systematic decline in risk-free interest rates, and deepening capital market reforms. The market's profitability has attracted significant capital inflow, alongside a marginal easing of China-US trade relations and expectations of global liquidity easing due to potential Fed rate cuts. The current market presents both opportunities and risks, emphasizing the need for "rational investment" and a focus on long-term wealth accumulation through deep research and balanced asset allocation [1]. Group 1 - The overall valuation is manageable with internal differentiation, facilitating a healthy rotation among sectors. The current PEttm of the Wind All A Index is around 16-17 times, close to the historical average and not reaching the peaks of 2007, 2009, or 2015. New economy sectors like renewable energy, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption are seeing upward valuation trends, while traditional sectors like banking, real estate, and infrastructure remain undervalued, providing a solid foundation for rotation under stable growth expectations [2]. - The increasing proportion of new economy sectors, supported by traditional sectors, provides long-term upward momentum. The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange, along with registration system reforms, has allowed many innovative companies to enter the capital market, enhancing upward elasticity. Additionally, policies promoting carbon neutrality and reducing competition have strengthened the profitability and stability of leading companies in traditional sectors, acting as a stabilizing force for the market [2]. - The growing presence of professional investors has shifted the market towards rational, long-term, and stable investment styles. The continuous growth of domestic public fund sizes and the increasing proportion of long-term capital from insurance and pension funds have led institutional investors to focus more on fundamental research and long-term holdings, changing the market's speculative behavior and reducing impulsive trading [2]. Group 2 - Recent increases in indices like the CSI 300, ChiNext, STAR 50, and North Exchange 50 have primarily been driven by valuation expansion. This valuation increase is supported by new capital inflows, with 196.36 million new A-share accounts opened in July, a year-on-year increase of 70.5%. The margin trading balance has remained above 1.9 trillion for 29 consecutive trading days, with financing purchases accounting for about 9% of A-share trading volume [10]. - Investor optimism regarding future growth has led to unsustainable high growth assumptions in high-growth sectors like AI, renewable energy, and biotechnology. In August, sectors such as defense, electronics, and computing exhibited significantly higher PEttm ratios compared to others, indicating speculative trading behavior. The shift from earning money through company growth to profiting from valuation increases has raised concerns about stability and safety [10]. - In the context of a slow bull market, maintaining rational investment principles is crucial. Key principles include diversifying asset allocation, focusing on intrinsic value, and minimizing exposure to market noise. Maintaining a cash position of 10-20% can enhance investment experience and prevent forced selling of quality assets during market downturns [15][16][17].

Group 1: Market Changes and Impacts - The U.S. government announced that it will not impose tariffs on imported refined copper and other input materials, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices by over 18% [1][2] - Following the tariff announcement, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowed from $2,700/ton to below $300/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, which contributed to the accumulation of COMEX copper inventories [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with domestic refined copper production increasing due to high sulfuric acid prices, while downstream demand remains subdued [4] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the second half of the year suggests that copper prices will face downward pressure, although lower prices may stimulate buying from downstream consumers [5] - The recent decline in U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data has raised concerns about a potential economic recession, which could negatively impact copper prices in the short term [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is Neutral to Bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, PVC production has increased, and the industry chain continues to accumulate inventory, increasing pressure on PVC. Recently, low - valued varieties are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly with the previous upward movement of the futures market. It is expected that as September approaches, pricing will return to fundamentals [3] - The 9 - 1 month spread has been oscillating weakly recently [3] - Overseas uncertainties are high, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Materials (Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide) - Lanthanum Coke: The operating rate of sample enterprises remained stable at 39.14%, and the price of Shenmu medium - grade lanthanum coke was reported at 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6] - Calcium Carbide: Supply slightly increased, with the operating rate rising 0.9 percentage points to 72.2% (medium - low overall). The price of Wuhai calcium carbide dropped to 2225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from last week, and the profit was - 306 yuan [12] 3.2 PVC Supply - The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.81%, a 0.84 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 79.21%, up 1.69 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 66.95%, down 1.36 percentage points. Tianjin Dagu plans to start mass production in August, and Haijing plans to start production at the end of August [3][17] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - Downstream product operating rates: Pipe operating rate was 32.52% (- 1.23%), and profile operating rate was 38.00% (+ 3.45%), both lower than the same period last year [25] - Exports: From January to June, PVC powder exports were 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 66 million tons (+ 50.7%), but exports weakened significantly in June. From January to June, PVC powder imports were 12.42 million tons, basically the same as last year. From January to June, cumulative floor exports were 209 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [61][62][64] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory increased to 63.12 million tons, an increase of 2.21 million tons from the previous period. Among them, East China sample inventory was 58.72 million tons, up 2.16 million tons, and South China sample inventory was 4.40 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. Upstream factory inventory decreased to 37.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.32 million tons from the previous period. The industry chain inventory increased [32][33] 3.5 PVC Profit - Calcium - carbide integration losses slightly narrowed. Xinjiang integration profit was - 290 yuan/ton, and Northwest integration profit was - 767 yuan/ton. The profit of the purchased calcium - carbide method rebounded. The profit of the Northwest purchased calcium - carbide method was - 114 yuan/ton, and that of the North China purchased calcium - carbide method was - 393 yuan/ton [43] - The profit of the purchased ethylene method slightly rebounded. East China ethylene - based profit was 463 yuan/ton, and North China ethylene - based profit was 613 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week [46] - Comprehensive profit strengthened. Northwest comprehensive profit was 684 yuan/ton and continued to increase. Shandong comprehensive profit was 160 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference increased by 210 to 3459 yuan/ton [55] 3.6 Related Commodities - Since 2024, real - estate demand has continued to weaken, cement prices have declined, and the operating rate has remained low [68] 3.7 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures market strengthened. The 09 contract rose from 4937 last week to 5149 at the last closing. The 9 - 1 month spread weakened to - 128. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, reaching 56,410 on July 28, an increase of 1770 from last week [79] 3.8 PVC Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows monthly production, demand, imports, exports, inventory changes, year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and demand from 2024 to 2025 [81]