Group 1: Market Changes and Impacts - The U.S. government announced that it will not impose tariffs on imported refined copper and other input materials, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices by over 18% [1][2] - Following the tariff announcement, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowed from $2,700/ton to below $300/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, which contributed to the accumulation of COMEX copper inventories [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with domestic refined copper production increasing due to high sulfuric acid prices, while downstream demand remains subdued [4] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the second half of the year suggests that copper prices will face downward pressure, although lower prices may stimulate buying from downstream consumers [5] - The recent decline in U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data has raised concerns about a potential economic recession, which could negatively impact copper prices in the short term [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is Neutral to Bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, PVC production has increased, and the industry chain continues to accumulate inventory, increasing pressure on PVC. Recently, low - valued varieties are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly with the previous upward movement of the futures market. It is expected that as September approaches, pricing will return to fundamentals [3] - The 9 - 1 month spread has been oscillating weakly recently [3] - Overseas uncertainties are high, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Materials (Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide) - Lanthanum Coke: The operating rate of sample enterprises remained stable at 39.14%, and the price of Shenmu medium - grade lanthanum coke was reported at 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6] - Calcium Carbide: Supply slightly increased, with the operating rate rising 0.9 percentage points to 72.2% (medium - low overall). The price of Wuhai calcium carbide dropped to 2225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from last week, and the profit was - 306 yuan [12] 3.2 PVC Supply - The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.81%, a 0.84 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 79.21%, up 1.69 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 66.95%, down 1.36 percentage points. Tianjin Dagu plans to start mass production in August, and Haijing plans to start production at the end of August [3][17] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - Downstream product operating rates: Pipe operating rate was 32.52% (- 1.23%), and profile operating rate was 38.00% (+ 3.45%), both lower than the same period last year [25] - Exports: From January to June, PVC powder exports were 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 66 million tons (+ 50.7%), but exports weakened significantly in June. From January to June, PVC powder imports were 12.42 million tons, basically the same as last year. From January to June, cumulative floor exports were 209 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [61][62][64] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory increased to 63.12 million tons, an increase of 2.21 million tons from the previous period. Among them, East China sample inventory was 58.72 million tons, up 2.16 million tons, and South China sample inventory was 4.40 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. Upstream factory inventory decreased to 37.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.32 million tons from the previous period. The industry chain inventory increased [32][33] 3.5 PVC Profit - Calcium - carbide integration losses slightly narrowed. Xinjiang integration profit was - 290 yuan/ton, and Northwest integration profit was - 767 yuan/ton. The profit of the purchased calcium - carbide method rebounded. The profit of the Northwest purchased calcium - carbide method was - 114 yuan/ton, and that of the North China purchased calcium - carbide method was - 393 yuan/ton [43] - The profit of the purchased ethylene method slightly rebounded. East China ethylene - based profit was 463 yuan/ton, and North China ethylene - based profit was 613 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week [46] - Comprehensive profit strengthened. Northwest comprehensive profit was 684 yuan/ton and continued to increase. Shandong comprehensive profit was 160 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference increased by 210 to 3459 yuan/ton [55] 3.6 Related Commodities - Since 2024, real - estate demand has continued to weaken, cement prices have declined, and the operating rate has remained low [68] 3.7 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures market strengthened. The 09 contract rose from 4937 last week to 5149 at the last closing. The 9 - 1 month spread weakened to - 128. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, reaching 56,410 on July 28, an increase of 1770 from last week [79] 3.8 PVC Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows monthly production, demand, imports, exports, inventory changes, year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and demand from 2024 to 2025 [81]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark and trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan [2] - The financial sector has led the market rally, supported by a surge in short-term capital chasing high-performing stocks as semi-annual earnings forecasts are released [2] - Institutions suggest that investors should shift from a trading strategy to a holding strategy in light of the market's transition from a stock-based to an incremental market [4][5] Group 2 - Positive factors for the A-share market continue to accumulate, with strong risk appetite reflected in trading behavior and capital flows [3] - The market is increasingly focusing on fundamental factors rather than external disturbances, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics [3] - The strong upward trend in the A-share market is expected to continue, with significant conditions for a major rally accumulating [3] Group 3 - The market has seen a shift from net outflows to net inflows in actively managed public funds since June, marking a reversal in the trend of capital withdrawal [4] - Different sectors, including non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and gaming, have shown synchronized upward movement, indicating the presence of incremental capital across various funding entities [5] Group 4 - The performance of semi-annual earnings is crucial for trading strategies, with sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to perform well [6] - High-growth industries such as automotive parts, automation equipment, and consumer goods are recommended for investment, alongside sectors with improving performance like precious metals and pharmaceuticals [6] - Predictions indicate that industries such as light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials may experience high growth rates in their semi-annual earnings [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Bearish consolidation. Geopolitical risk premium has been squeezed out, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is increasing production, and although it's the consumption peak season, increasing production will put downward pressure on prices. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection [1][6]. - **LPG**: Weak. Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price, and cost reduction due to falling oil prices, although downstream chemical demand is rising and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Lightly short [1][9]. - **L**: Bearish consolidation. Device restarts are increasing, with production expected to rise this week. New device launches are planned in the medium - long term, and demand is in the off - season. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][11]. - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. Downstream orders are weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][14]. - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new device launches are planned in the long term. Strategy: Short on rebounds, pay attention to pressure at integer levels [1][17]. - **PX**: Bullish. PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase, and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on dips [1][19]. - **PTA/PR**: Short - term bullish. Supply pressure is expected to increase, but inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Strategy: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities [1][25]. - **Glass**: Under pressure and falling back. Market risk appetite has recovered, but medium - term demand shrinkage has not been alleviated, and cost has decreased. Strategy: Be cautious with long positions [3][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds. Supply is slightly reduced, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Short on rebounds [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: Back to weakness. Supply is high, demand is weak, and cost support is shifting down. Strategy: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. - **Methanol**: Short on rebounds. Supply is increasing, demand feedback is negative, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract [3][36]. - **Urea**: Short on rebounds. Supply pressure remains high, although demand from exports is growing. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities [3]. - **Asphalt**: Weak. Cost reduction due to falling oil prices, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Lightly short [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were weakly volatile. WTI fell 0.63%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC fell 1.21% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risk has eased, and OPEC+ may increase production in August. Supply from Guyana is increasing, while global demand growth has slightly decreased. US crude inventory decreased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, supply is in excess, and the price range is expected to be $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, it is weakly volatile. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focus range: [490 - 510] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 30, the PG main contract closed at 4235 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Falling oil prices and Saudi Arabia's price cut have put pressure on LPG. PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil开工 rates are rising, but PDH device profit has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the upstream oil supply is in excess, and LPG is over - valued. Technically, it is weak. Strategy: Lightly short or buy put options. PG focus range: [4130 - 4250] [9]. L - **Market Review**: Price and position data of different contracts showed slight fluctuations [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, supply is expected to increase due to device restarts, and demand is in the off - season. New devices are planned in July - August [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7150 - 7350] [11][12]. PP - **Market Review**: Prices of different contracts and spot markets declined slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Export profit is negative [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7000 - 7150] [14][15]. PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new devices are planned in the long term. The market is in the off - season, and exports are still supported [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, pay attention to integer - level pressure. Short - term participation. Risk: Macro - systematic risk. Focus range: [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 7145 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 6752 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase due to PTA device restarts and new capacity launches, and inventory is decreasing. PXN and basis are high [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [6780 - 6930] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 5025 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4778 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity launches, while demand from the downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries is weakening. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread. Focus range: [4790 - 4880] [22][23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 4340 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4271 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Geopolitical risks still exist [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [4230 - 4300] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has widened [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have decreased, and domestic policies have boosted market sentiment. Supply is at a low level, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals are weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1010 - 1030], with weak support at the 5 - day moving average [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices have been lowered, and the main contract basis has widened [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has slightly decreased, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. The price is sensitive to policies and costs [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1185 - 1220], rebound within the range [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has weakened [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is high, demand from the main downstream (alumina) is weakening, and cost support is shifting down. There is an inventory reduction expectation during the maintenance season [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 2638 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton. The basis is high [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is increasing, overseas device loads are low, and 7 - month arrivals may be lower than expected. Demand feedback is negative, but traditional demand is rising. Inventory is slightly accumulating [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract. Focus range: [2360 - 2420] [36][37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, although fertilizer exports are growing. Cost support still exists [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [1700 - 1740] [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, oil prices have fallen, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short. Focus range: [3500 - 3600] [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that crude oil futures continue to decline, with SC crude oil dropping over 8% [1] - Analysts suggest that if geopolitical conflicts show signs of easing, crude oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamental pricing [1] - In the short term, geopolitical tensions may still persist, leading to a volatile oil price environment [1]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 05 日 5 月或集中定价基本面，关注稳健类转债 核心观点 我们认为未来一个月左右的时间市场或许更加关注基本面，大概率继续体现为防御特 征，建议加大内需刺激受益、外需脱敏、科技成长、基本面相对更加稳健的转债。 ❑ 5 月或集中定价质量，继续关注稳健类转债 过去一周（4 月 28 日至 4 月 30 日，下同）大部分转债指数下跌，仅可转债可选 消费行业指数，AA-及以下评级转债、可转债高价指数、小盘转债指数上涨。估值 方面，债性、股性估值压缩。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅下降到 119.23 元，处 在 2017 年以来的 74.65%水平。 我们认为未来一个月左右的时间市场或更加关注基本面，大概率继续体现为防御 特征，其原因主要在于；首先，基于 2024 年财报，有关国九条新规将要落地实行， 市场风格也将更加关注基本面而非成长预期；其次，评级公司也将会在年报披露 完毕后，集中对转债进行评级展望，届时或将继续有相关转债的评级有被下调的 可能性；最后，海外关税风险冲击国内风险偏好与基本面。以上几个方面将对市 场风格 ...