Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - The current trend in gold prices has reached a historical high of $4218.19 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown [1][2] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year have pressured the dollar, further supporting gold prices [1] Gold Analysis - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising to $4180 before dropping to $4090, then rebounding to close higher [2] - The current bullish trend in gold is expected to continue, with key resistance levels at $4300 and $4500, while support levels are noted at $4090 and $4180 [4] - Despite technical indicators showing overbought conditions, bullish momentum remains strong, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend [1][4] Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have continued to decline, with Brent crude falling to $62.27 per barrel and WTI crude to $58.60 per barrel, marking the lowest closing prices in five months [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, exacerbated by increased production from OPEC+ and weak global demand recovery [5] - The current downward pressure on oil prices is attributed to expanding supply and uncertain demand due to trade tensions [5] Oil Technical Analysis - The oil market is showing a downward trend, with prices breaking below key support levels and MACD indicators suggesting a continued bearish momentum [6] - Short-term trading strategies recommend focusing on selling during price rebounds, with resistance levels at $60.0-$61.0 and support at $57.0-$56.0 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a new historical high as bullish sentiment regained control after a four-day period of narrow fluctuations, driven by a weakening dollar and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance of a 50 basis point cut, which has contributed to the upward momentum in gold prices [1] - Political crises in the U.S. and some EU countries, along with worsening geopolitical tensions, have further supported gold buying [1] - The expectation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve is likely to provide additional support for gold prices in the future [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The key psychological resistance level of $3700 is under increasing pressure, and a breakout above this level could open up further upside potential for gold, with the next target at $3734 (Fibonacci 138.2% extension) [1] - Despite daily technical indicators being in the overbought territory, bullish sentiment remains strong; however, without new fundamental changes, the market may experience a short-term consolidation or slight pullback [1] Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - Resistance levels identified: 3700, 3734, 3750, 3789 [2] - Support levels identified: 3674, 3624, 3600, 3577 [2]

Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to weaken due to a lackluster US Treasury auction and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, which supports rising gold prices [1] - COMEX gold futures prices experienced a slight decline of 0.08%, closing at $3431.8 per ounce, after initially dropping to $3411 [1] - The US Treasury auction of $42 billion in 10-year bonds was weak, with a bid-to-cover ratio indicating reduced demand, particularly from buyers outside the US [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, suggest that a slowdown in the US economy may warrant interest rate cuts, with expectations of two cuts by the end of the year [1] - Market expectations for a shift in monetary policy are heightened, influenced by comments from Fed Governor Cook regarding non-farm payroll data adjustments [2] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair by Trump could further impact market sentiment and monetary policy direction [2]