Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].

支撑位：3674；3624；3600；3577 在美联储周三利率决议前，美元再度走弱，为金价提供了新的上涨动力。市场普遍预计美联储将降息25 个基点，同时也存在小幅可能性出现50个基点降息。此外，美国及部分欧盟国家的政治危机加深，以及 地缘局势恶化的迹象，也进一步支撑了黄金买盘。 DLSMARKETS认为3700美元这一关键心理关口正承受越来越大的压力，若突破，该水平将为黄金打开 进一步上涨空间，下一目标在3734美元（斐波那契138.2%延展位）。 目前，尽管日线技术指标已处于超买区域，但多头并未因此退却。不过，若基本面暂未出现新的变化， 市场可能在短期内出现整理或浅幅回调。 阻力位：3700；3734；3750；3789 周一晚至周二早盘，黄金价格再创历史新高。此前连续四天的窄幅震荡结束，多头重新掌握主动。 目前，降息预期几乎已被完全计入价格，投资者更加关注美联储对未来政策路径的指引。市场普遍押注 美联储将保持鸽派立场，从而为金价后续走势提供额外支持。 ...

8月6日，受美国债拍卖疲软及美联储持续释放鸽派言论影响，美元指数持续走弱，支撑金价走强， COMEX黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至3411美元后拉升，尾盘小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌 0.08%报3431.8美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.17%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨 1.66%。 光大期货分析认为，美联储理事库克在波士顿联储组织的讨论会上称，非农数据调整在某种程度上是转 折点的典型表现。这一表态加剧了市场对美联储可能调整货币政策的预期。此外，特朗普在周二讲话表 示，将在本周决定由谁来接替即将卸任的美联储理事Kugler，并利用这个空缺出来的职位来挑选未来的 美联储主席。市场鸽派预期加深，金价短期或延续易涨难跌格局。关注本周关税谈判进展，若TACO预 期未落地，避险情绪仍可能进一步助推金价。 第三位联储主席发布鸽派言论，近日，明尼阿波利斯联储主席、2026年FOMC票委卡什卡利表示，美国 经济的放缓可能使短期内降息成为合适之举，他仍预计今年年底前将有两次降息。 当地时间周三，受买方需求疲弱，尤其是美国以外的买家需求下降，美国财政部拍卖420亿美元10年期 国债疲软 ...