来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源及有色组 昨日铂钯主力合约均再次触及涨停，其中铂主力合约PT2606收于568.45元/克，涨幅6.99%，钯主力合约 PD2606收于508.45元/克，涨幅7%。 最近铂金4个交易日中出现2次涨停，钯金更是4个交易日出现3次涨停，主要还是受宏观因素的影响。11 月美国非农新增就业6.4万人，高于市场预期，但10月就业数据被大幅下修，失业率升至4.6%，为2021 年以来最高水平，就业市场正在降温得到美官方数据确认。另外，美国11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，低于预 期的上涨3.1%；11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，同样低于前值和市场预期值3%，显示通胀压力进一步缓 解。从通胀数据来看，强化了市场对美联储走向鸽派的预期，贵金属走势强劲，目前金铂比在2.1左 右，与历史重心1.5相比，仍存在修复空间。基本面方面，欧美暂停全面电动化，以及氢能技术的发 展，加强了铂钯未来需求增长预期。而南非与俄罗斯的供应紧张短期内无法得到缓解。供需方面的紧张 形势也在一定程度上加强了铂钯的上涨预期。 短期盘面波动较大，投资者应注意风险。 风险提示：关注宏观政策变化以及海外供给干扰。 投资咨询业务资格： ...

12月19日，金价探底回升，COMEX黄金期货价格目前交投于4352美元/盎司附近，黄金相关ETF产品跌 幅收窄，截至10点42分，黄金ETF华夏（518850）跌0.29%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨0.69%，黄 金股ETF（159562）跌0.46%，其持仓股江西铜业股份、深中华A涨超3%，益民集团、菜百股份、曼卡 龙等股领涨，万国黄金集团、晓程科技、招金黄金等股领跌。 光大期货指出，从美国近日发布的通胀数据来看，市场强化了对美联储走向鸽派的预期，2026年继续降 息预期被强化。特朗普讲话称下一任美联储负责人必须是"超级鸽派"，宽松氛围下黄金价格保持偏强走 势。 每日经济新闻 消息面上，据山东省烟台市海洋发展和渔业局官方发布消息，莱州市三山岛北部海域新发现国内唯一、 亚洲最大的海底巨型金矿，莱州市累计探明金资源储量3900余吨，约占全国的26%，金矿资源储量和产 量均居全国首位。 ...

Market Overview - Spot gold is currently trading around $4287 per ounce, having reached a one-and-a-half-month high of $4285.75 on Wednesday, the highest level since October 21 [1] - Gold prices have risen for three consecutive trading days, with a nearly 2% increase this week [1] - The global stock market's strong performance has reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, despite a mild rebound in the dollar from a two-month low [1] Technical Analysis - Gold broke through the predicted resistance level of $4260, gaining an additional $25, which may indicate the foundation for a strong upward trend [2] - The H4 cycle shows a significant increase in bullish momentum, with potential resistance levels at $4300 and $4350 [2] - Key support levels for trading are identified at $4250 and $4232, with a bullish outlook as long as these levels hold [2] Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices reached a high of 973 for Shanghai gold and 963 for Rongtong gold, with a cautious approach recommended for Friday [4] - In the silver market, international silver has continued to rise, reaching a high of 64.2, with a bullish outlook maintained [4] - The trading strategy for silver suggests waiting for a pullback to around 62.5 to enter long positions, while the domestic silver contract has reached approximately 15000 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market rebound is not just a price increase but a structural and systemic "repricing," reflecting a convergence of liquidity, systemic positioning, Federal Reserve expectations, and the technology innovation cycle [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Risk appetite has returned across different asset classes, indicating a broad recovery rather than a sector-specific rebound [2]. - A significant number of heavily shorted stocks have seen rapid short covering, signaling a willingness to take risks in the market [3]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the two-year yield dropping to 3.5%, suggests that the market is pricing in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: AI and Technology Sector - The release of new AI models by Google has reignited confidence in the tech sector, alleviating concerns about a potential AI bubble [7]. - The tech sector's performance is not merely due to valuation expansion but a recovery of innovation cycle expectations, as demonstrated by Google's advancements [7]. - The S&P 500 recorded its best performance in six months, driven by a collective rebound in technology stocks [7]. Group 3: Systemic Positioning and Market Sentiment - Goldman Sachs reported a significant market breadth recovery, with the S&P 500's advance-decline line moving from -150 to +150, indicating a strong reversal [8]. - The volatility index (VIX) has decreased to around 5, reflecting a normalization of market risk perception [10]. - Systematic strategies that previously sold off approximately $16 billion have now been fully absorbed, leading to a more neutral positioning in the market [11]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Goldman Sachs anticipates a shift to net buying of $4.7 billion in December, indicating a reversal in structural fund flows [14]. - The S&P 500 rose by 3.7% this week, with Bitcoin surpassing $90,000, suggesting a trend recovery rather than a short-term spike [14]. - The market is expected to be driven by new expectations and active buying in the absence of forced selling pressures [12]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Influence - The market's reversal is underpinned by changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve, with discussions about a potential dovish leadership transition [22]. - The likelihood of a dovish cycle over the next two years is increasing, which may limit downside risks for equities [24]. - The structural limitations on downside risks for risk assets are supported by the current liquidity environment [24].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is struggling to maintain its gains against the US dollar due to fiscal concerns and a positive risk sentiment that offsets intervention expectations, weakening the yen's safe-haven appeal [1][2]. Group 1: Yen's Performance and Market Sentiment - The yen has shown a steady decline from a one-week high, reflecting weakness against a broadly rebounding dollar, although its downside potential appears limited [2]. - Global risk sentiment is supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and hopes for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has contributed to the yen's selling pressure [2][4]. - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's push for stimulus policies has heightened market concerns regarding Japan's fiscal health, further impacting the yen's performance [2][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Economic Indicators - Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued a strong warning regarding excessive market volatility, indicating potential government intervention to counteract the yen's weakness [3]. - The Bank of Japan's recent adjustments in communication suggest a focus on the inflation risks associated with the yen's depreciation, hinting at a possible interest rate hike in December [3]. - Data released showed Japan's October Producer Price Index for services rose by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating progress towards the 2% inflation target, which may support further tightening of monetary policy [3]. Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Market Reactions - The Japanese cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus plan, marking the largest such initiative since the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about increased government debt supply [4]. - The market's expectation of a potential US interest rate cut in December has led to a decline in the dollar-yen exchange rate, with the dollar/yuan trading around 155.70 [4]. - The market remains cautious, with traders reluctant to make aggressive directional bets due to the influence of US holidays on trading volumes [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The dollar/yen exchange rate is facing resistance near the 100-hour simple moving average at approximately 156.70, which is seen as a critical pivot point [5][7]. - A sustained breakout above this resistance could lead to a recovery towards the 157.00 level and potentially higher to the 157.45-157.50 range [7]. - Conversely, a drop below the recent low of 155.65 could trigger further declines, with the psychological level of 155.00 becoming a new target for bearish traders [7].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight decline due to optimistic market sentiment leading to profit-taking, with hopes for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict putting pressure on the commodity [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's dovish expectations continue to suppress the dollar, potentially providing support for precious metals [1][4] - Investors widely anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10, influenced by recent comments from Fed officials regarding the labor market and economic conditions [4][6] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data has been mixed, with September durable goods orders rising by 0.5%, below the revised 3.0% increase from the previous month but above the market expectation of 0.3% [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, the lowest in seven months, somewhat offsetting disappointing Chicago PMI data, which dropped to 36.3, indicating contraction [3][4] - The dollar index (DXY) fell to a one-week low, which may continue to support non-yielding gold [4] Group 3 - Market sentiment remains cautious, with gold bulls adopting a wait-and-see approach as risk appetite offsets the dovish stance of the Fed and dollar weakness [3] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices may find strong support above $4,100, with potential resistance at the $4,171-$4,173 range, which, if broken, could lead to a test of the $4,200 level [6]

Group 1 - Silver prices have risen to around $52.00, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have put pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December meeting has increased from 50.1% to 85.3% over the past week, indicating a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy [2] - New York Fed President John Williams supports further easing of monetary policy, suggesting that current policy is somewhat restrictive and there is room for adjustment [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that XAG/USD is trading at $51.94, with the 20-day EMA indicating an upward trend, reinforcing bullish sentiment [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.15, confirming positive momentum without signs of overbought conditions [3] - Key support is identified at $50.40 (20-day EMA), while the historical high of $54.50 may act as a significant resistance level [3][5]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has surged to approximately 4116.15 USD/oz, reflecting a daily increase of 1.2% after previously dipping to 3997 USD/oz [2][4] - Recent market pressures on gold prices were influenced by a weakening of dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, with prices touching 3997 USD/oz on November 18 [3] - The trend of capital inflow into gold as a safe-haven asset continues, as indicated by the statement from the Bank of Indonesia's governor [5] Group 2 - Market participants are awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, which will provide insights into policymakers' views on future interest rate paths [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, trading at $4018 per ounce with a rise of approximately 1.6% [1] - Traders are cautious and awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision, which is expected to influence gold's direction [1] - The expectation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve may limit any significant appreciation of the dollar, providing support for gold prices [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices have declined from $4140 to $3888, showing a volatility of $250 [3] - The current price is $3975 per ounce, having broken below the 20-day moving average, indicating bearish momentum [3] - There is a potential for a technical rebound due to oversold conditions, with key support levels identified at $3880-$3885 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, with Brent crude dropping below $65 per barrel, a decline of over 2% [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by approximately 4 million barrels, while regional supply-demand disparities are evident [4] - Market sentiment remains pessimistic, with concerns over potential oversupply globally [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - Oil prices have shown a recovery with three consecutive bullish candles, but the short-term trend is currently downward [5] - The MACD indicator suggests strengthening bearish momentum, indicating potential further declines [5] - The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips while monitoring resistance at $61.0-$62.0 and support at $58.5-$57.5 [5]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around 151.1000, with a 0.24% increase from the previous close of 150.7400, as the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to delayed expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - The yen has declined against the dollar for three consecutive days, with limited downside ahead of the upcoming Japanese parliamentary election to appoint a new Prime Minister [1] - The anticipated appointment of Seiko Noda as Japan's first female Prime Minister contrasts with dovish expectations from the US Federal Reserve, which may limit the dollar's gains against the yen [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a positive outlook for USD/JPY, with potential appreciation towards the support level of 151.75, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from recent monthly highs and the 200-hour simple moving average [2] - A sustained breakout above this level could lead to further increases towards the 152.00 level and the resistance area of 152.25, which is the intersection of the monthly peak's Fibonacci retracement and the 200-hour simple moving average [2] - Immediate support is expected in the 150.50-150.45 range, with further support at 150.25 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the psychological level of 150.00 [2]