过去几天，受美联储鸽派预期减弱等影响，黄金价格持续承压，昨日（ 11月 18 日 ） 一度 向下 触及 3997 美元/盎司 。 截至记者发稿，现货黄金报 4116.15 美元/盎司，日内 大 涨 1.2 %。 从 消息面 看，11月19日， 印度尼西亚央行行长 表示， 作为避险资产，资金流入黄金的趋 势仍在持续。 StoneX资深市场分析师马特·辛普森表示，黄金期货可能迎来短期反弹。日线图已连续第二个 交易日形成看涨锤子线形态。尽管日相对强弱指数尚未进入超卖区间，但已接近该阈值，表 明短期低点可能已经出现，或即将形成。 目前，市场正屏息以待美联储会议纪要发布。 【导读】现货黄金 逼近 4 12 0美元 /盎司，日内大涨1.2% 中国基金报记者 张舟 一度跌 至3997 美元后，现货黄金 再度快速 拉升！ 北京时间 11月1 9 日 晚间 ，现货黄金 快速拉升 。 北京时间周四凌晨3点，美联储将公布其10月份会议纪要，会议纪要将详细展现多数决策者在 10月会议期间对未来利率路径的看法。 编辑：杜妍 注：本文封面图由AI生成 版权声明 《中国基金报》对本平台所刊载的原创内容享有著作权，未经授权禁止转载，否则将追 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, trading at $4018 per ounce with a rise of approximately 1.6% [1] - Traders are cautious and awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision, which is expected to influence gold's direction [1] - The expectation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve may limit any significant appreciation of the dollar, providing support for gold prices [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices have declined from $4140 to $3888, showing a volatility of $250 [3] - The current price is $3975 per ounce, having broken below the 20-day moving average, indicating bearish momentum [3] - There is a potential for a technical rebound due to oversold conditions, with key support levels identified at $3880-$3885 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, with Brent crude dropping below $65 per barrel, a decline of over 2% [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by approximately 4 million barrels, while regional supply-demand disparities are evident [4] - Market sentiment remains pessimistic, with concerns over potential oversupply globally [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - Oil prices have shown a recovery with three consecutive bullish candles, but the short-term trend is currently downward [5] - The MACD indicator suggests strengthening bearish momentum, indicating potential further declines [5] - The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips while monitoring resistance at $61.0-$62.0 and support at $58.5-$57.5 [5]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY pair is currently trading around 151.1000, with a 0.24% increase from the previous close of 150.7400, as the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to delayed expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - The yen has declined against the dollar for three consecutive days, with limited downside ahead of the upcoming Japanese parliamentary election to appoint a new Prime Minister [1] - The anticipated appointment of Seiko Noda as Japan's first female Prime Minister contrasts with dovish expectations from the US Federal Reserve, which may limit the dollar's gains against the yen [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a positive outlook for USD/JPY, with potential appreciation towards the support level of 151.75, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from recent monthly highs and the 200-hour simple moving average [2] - A sustained breakout above this level could lead to further increases towards the 152.00 level and the resistance area of 152.25, which is the intersection of the monthly peak's Fibonacci retracement and the 200-hour simple moving average [2] - Immediate support is expected in the 150.50-150.45 range, with further support at 150.25 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the psychological level of 150.00 [2]

Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - The current trend in gold prices has reached a historical high of $4218.19 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown [1][2] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year have pressured the dollar, further supporting gold prices [1] Gold Analysis - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising to $4180 before dropping to $4090, then rebounding to close higher [2] - The current bullish trend in gold is expected to continue, with key resistance levels at $4300 and $4500, while support levels are noted at $4090 and $4180 [4] - Despite technical indicators showing overbought conditions, bullish momentum remains strong, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend [1][4] Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have continued to decline, with Brent crude falling to $62.27 per barrel and WTI crude to $58.60 per barrel, marking the lowest closing prices in five months [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, exacerbated by increased production from OPEC+ and weak global demand recovery [5] - The current downward pressure on oil prices is attributed to expanding supply and uncertain demand due to trade tensions [5] Oil Technical Analysis - The oil market is showing a downward trend, with prices breaking below key support levels and MACD indicators suggesting a continued bearish momentum [6] - Short-term trading strategies recommend focusing on selling during price rebounds, with resistance levels at $60.0-$61.0 and support at $57.0-$56.0 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a new historical high as bullish sentiment regained control after a four-day period of narrow fluctuations, driven by a weakening dollar and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance of a 50 basis point cut, which has contributed to the upward momentum in gold prices [1] - Political crises in the U.S. and some EU countries, along with worsening geopolitical tensions, have further supported gold buying [1] - The expectation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve is likely to provide additional support for gold prices in the future [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The key psychological resistance level of $3700 is under increasing pressure, and a breakout above this level could open up further upside potential for gold, with the next target at $3734 (Fibonacci 138.2% extension) [1] - Despite daily technical indicators being in the overbought territory, bullish sentiment remains strong; however, without new fundamental changes, the market may experience a short-term consolidation or slight pullback [1] Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - Resistance levels identified: 3700, 3734, 3750, 3789 [2] - Support levels identified: 3674, 3624, 3600, 3577 [2]

Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to weaken due to a lackluster US Treasury auction and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, which supports rising gold prices [1] - COMEX gold futures prices experienced a slight decline of 0.08%, closing at $3431.8 per ounce, after initially dropping to $3411 [1] - The US Treasury auction of $42 billion in 10-year bonds was weak, with a bid-to-cover ratio indicating reduced demand, particularly from buyers outside the US [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, suggest that a slowdown in the US economy may warrant interest rate cuts, with expectations of two cuts by the end of the year [1] - Market expectations for a shift in monetary policy are heightened, influenced by comments from Fed Governor Cook regarding non-farm payroll data adjustments [2] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair by Trump could further impact market sentiment and monetary policy direction [2]