评级： 增持（维持） 煤炭需求提振可期，右侧配置窗口显现 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 17 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 17,459.15 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 17,069.50 | 1、《耐心寻底，布局右侧》2025-05-11 2025-05-05 有望企稳》2025-05-04 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A ...

Core Viewpoint - SMIC reported a slight increase in revenue for Q1 2025, driven by demand in the industrial and automotive sectors, but anticipates a decline in revenue for Q2 2025 due to falling average selling prices and rising depreciation costs [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, SMIC achieved sales revenue of $2.247 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.8% [1]. - The revenue breakdown shows wafer revenue at 95.2% and other revenue at 4.8%, with wafer revenue increasing by 5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The total shipment volume reached 2.29 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, reflecting a 15% quarter-on-quarter growth [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Revenue from the industrial and automotive sectors grew over 20% quarter-on-quarter, increasing its share from 8% to 10% of total revenue [2]. - The automotive electronics segment benefited from advancements by major clients and SMIC's investments in automotive electronic platforms [2]. - Demand for BCD, MCU, and special memory products surged, with revenue in these areas increasing by approximately 20% [2]. Group 3: Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, SMIC projects a revenue decline of 4% to 6%, with stable shipment volumes but a decrease in average selling prices [3]. - The gross margin guidance for Q2 is set at 18% to 20%, down by 1 percentage point from Q1 [3]. - Despite challenges, SMIC maintains a full capacity utilization rate and observes positive signals of recovery in various sectors, including industrial and automotive [3]. Group 4: Market Challenges and Opportunities - The company is closely monitoring the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" and its potential effects on market demand and inventory levels [4]. - There is uncertainty regarding visibility for the latter half of the year, particularly in Q3 and beyond [4]. - SMIC emphasizes the importance of maintaining focus on core operations and enhancing resilience against risks [4]. Group 5: Customer Sentiment - Following the introduction of new U.S. tariff policies, the direct impact on the industrial sector is assessed to be minimal, less than 1 percentage point [5]. - Customers are eager to expedite shipments before potential tariff increases, which has led to a slight increase in orders [5]. - SMIC's production capacity for Q4 2024 is already full, limiting additional growth opportunities [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 110.00 RMB [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.256 billion RMB in Q1 2025, showing a year-over-year decline of 4.41% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -152 million RMB, a significant year-over-year decline of 139.52% [1][2]. - The strong growth in overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses has been a key driver for the company's performance, despite a slow recovery in demand for consumer electronics [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the prices of DRAM and NAND products will bottom out in Q2 2025, with potential price rebounds for certain product lines as inventory levels normalize [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company's overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses saw significant growth, with Lexar brand revenue increasing by 20.73% year-over-year and Zilia's revenue growing by 45.08% year-over-year. The enterprise storage product combination "eSSD+RDIMM" achieved over 200% year-over-year revenue growth [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 10.35%, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 14.04 percentage points, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2]. 2025 Outlook - The report highlights that major manufacturers like Micron have announced price increases starting in Q2, indicating a potential rebound in consumer storage prices. The company has successfully mass-produced its self-developed UFS 4.1 controller chip, which will facilitate the introduction of new UFS products to mobile brand customers [3]. - The integration of Zilia with Yuan Cheng Suzhou has improved operational efficiency, allowing the company to expand its overseas market presence [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 22.756 billion RMB, 26.700 billion RMB, and 29.568 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 30.30%, 17.33%, and 10.74% [6][18]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 668.52 million RMB in 2025, with a significant recovery from previous losses [6][18].

截至4月25日，日经平均指数几乎收复了特朗普4月2日宣布对等关税后的跌幅。虽然无法完全消 除"二次探底"的隐忧，但认为3.1万点左右是最低点的观点越来越强。背后原因是美国政府态度持 续软化。日股能否回归持续性走高？ 4月25日，日经平均指数连续上涨，最终以3.5705万点收盘，几乎收复了美国总统特朗普4月2日 宣布对等关税后的跌幅。在市场相关人士之间，认为4月上旬暴跌过程中出现的低点是"大底"的解 释已开始增加。日本股市能否摆脱对美国股市的依赖，回归持续性走高？一部分投资者已经展开 行动。 "我不认为中美之间会对高关税置之不理。与(宣布对等关税的)2日相比，环境不会变得更加严 峻"，三菱UFJ资产管理公司的执行基金经理石金淳管理着投资日本国内外股票和债券的基金，一 直在日本股市下跌的局面下实施买进。据称，他认为日本股市已经见底。 从卖空情况中也可以窥见触底的迹象。美国标普全球(S&P Global)的数据显示，从丰田的股票来 看，借出股票（卖空）余额占已发行股票的比例从4月初的2.3%下降到23日的0.9%。认为旨在避 免下跌局面下的损失而进行卖空的趋势不会进一步下跌，因此暂时开始回购。 日经平均指数已从创年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kingfa Technology (600143.SH) reported record-high revenue of 60.514 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.23%, and a net profit of 0.825 billion yuan, up 160.36% year-on-year. However, the market remains skeptical about the sustainability of this growth due to a low performance base in 2023 and ongoing pressures in its profit structure [2][3][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's revenue growth is largely attributed to a low base in 2023, which was the lowest in nearly a decade, with absolute values lower than any year from 2019 to 2022 [6][11]. - Kingfa's main business, modified plastics, accounted for 52% of revenue, but faced significant pressure with a sales price drop to a six-year low, resulting in a gross margin decrease of 1.44 percentage points [3][6][8]. - The medical health segment, which thrived during the pandemic, has seen a drastic decline in revenue from 2.71 billion yuan to 0.56 billion yuan in 2024, with a negative gross margin of -34.22% [11][12]. Business Segment Performance - Kingfa's four main business segments are under pressure, with modified plastics experiencing volume growth but price declines, leading to a significant drop in profitability [6][11]. - The green petrochemical segment continues to report deep losses, with subsidiaries like Liaoning Kingfa and Ningbo Kingfa showing substantial revenue increases but also significant losses [10][12]. - The company has over 3,000 competitors in the modified plastics market, with a fragmented market structure and intense price competition, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segments [8]. Financial Health and Debt Situation - Kingfa's aggressive expansion strategy has resulted in 28.3 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt, leading to operational losses, impairment issues, and increased expenses [12][17]. - The company's financial expenses have risen significantly, with interest expenses reaching 1.098 billion yuan in 2024, compared to 0.576 billion yuan in 2020 [17][18]. - Kingfa is currently facing a liquidity crunch, with cash reserves insufficient to cover short-term debts, leading to plans to issue up to 4 billion yuan in medium-term notes to support operations and repay debts [18].