点击注册小程序 国产替代驱动需求持续强劲，存储涨价短暂扰动部分逻辑电路出货节奏 1）整体需求强劲，持续供不应求。公司预计AI需求持续旺盛，其他领域实现温和增长，当前订单相对产 线仍然供不应求。2）受益国产替代。国产替代趋势，使得中芯国际客户的订单和市场份额提升，进而带 动中芯国际代工份额；目前模拟芯片、存储器、CIS等产业链积极向国内切换。3）存储缺芯短暂影响出 货。手机等终端厂商因不确定未来存储拿货情况，因此短期不敢积极拉货逻辑电路，我们认为更多是出货 节奏问题、不影响整体需求表现。 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 3Q25业绩全面超预期。3Q25收入23.82亿美元，YoY+9.7%，QoQ+7.8%，超过公司QoQ+5%~+7%指引区 间上限、和市场预期(23.47亿美元) ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $2,382 million, representing a sequential increase of 7.8% [4][11] - Gross margin improved to 22%, up 1.6 percentage points sequentially [4][15] - Profit from operations was $351 million, with EBITDA at $1,430 million and an EBITDA margin of 60% [4] - Profit attributable to the company was $192 million [4] - Total assets at the end of Q3 were $49.4 billion, with total cash on hand at $11.4 billion and total liabilities at $16.4 billion [6] - Debt-to-equity ratio was 34.8%, and net debt-to-equity ratio was 0.4% [6] - Net cash generated from operating activities was $941 million, while net cash used in investing activities was $2.062 billion [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wafer revenue from 12-inch and 8-inch wafers accounted for 77% and 23% respectively, with stable proportions [11] - The utilization rate was 95.8%, and wafer shipments increased by 4.6% sequentially to 2,499,000 standard logic 8-inch equivalent wafers [11] - Blended wafer price increased by 3.8% sequentially due to a favorable product mix [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue by region showed China accounting for 86%, the Americas 11%, and New Asia 3% [13] - Revenue from the China region increased by 11% sequentially, driven by demand pull-in and domestic market expansion [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strengthening its product platforms, with advancements in specialty technologies and 28-nanometer ULP logic processes [18][19] - The company is seizing growth opportunities in the automotive chip market by launching multiple specialty processes [19] - The overall production lines are still in short supply, indicating a robust demand for the company's products [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to follow a traditional seasonal pattern, with revenue guidance flat to up 2% sequentially and gross margin expected between 18% to 20% [8][17] - Full-year revenue is anticipated to exceed $9 billion, marking a new milestone [17] - The company is collaborating with customers to ensure sustainable orders amid the ongoing reshuffling in the domestic industrial chain [20] Other Important Information - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached $6.838 billion, up 17.4% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 21.6% [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about the impact of the super cycle on the company - Management discussed the potential effects of the super cycle on the company's operations and market positioning [24] Question: Questions regarding MCU and other product lines - Management provided insights into the performance and future expectations for MCU and other integrated circuits [26] Question: Inquiry about the company's growth in AI and other sectors - Management addressed the growth in AI and other major application fields, noting moderate growth or stability [20]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $2,382 million, representing a sequential increase of 7.8% [4][11] - Gross margin improved to 22%, up 1.6 percentage points sequentially [4][15] - Profit from operations was $351 million, with EBITDA at $1,430 million and an EBITDA margin of 60% [4] - Profit attributable to the company was $192 million [4] - Total assets reached $49.4 billion, with total cash on hand at $11.4 billion and total liabilities at $16.4 billion [5] - The debt-to-equity ratio was 34.8%, and the net debt-to-equity ratio was 0.4% [5] - Net cash generated from operating activities was $941 million, while net cash used in investing activities was $2.062 billion [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wafer revenue from 12-inch and 8-inch wafers accounted for 77% and 23% respectively, with stable proportions [11] - The utilization rate was 95.8%, and wafer shipments increased by 4.6% sequentially to 2,499,000 standard logic 8-inch equivalent wafers [11] - Blended wafer price increased by 3.8% sequentially due to a favorable product mix [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue by region: China accounted for 86%, America 11%, and New Asia 3% [12] - Revenue from the China region increased by 11% sequentially, driven by demand pull-in and domestic market expansion [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strengthening its product platforms, with advancements in specialty technologies and a variety of applications [18] - The company is actively collaborating with customers to ensure shipments and meet demand amid industry reshuffling [19][20] - The fourth quarter is expected to follow a traditional seasonal pattern, with revenue guidance flat to up 2% sequentially [8][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the overall production lines are still in short supply, indicating strong demand [20] - The company anticipates a successful completion of 2025, with full-year revenue expected to exceed $9 billion [17][21] Other Important Information - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached $6.838 billion, up 17.4% year-over-year [16] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 21.6%, up 5.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about the super cycle and 2026 outlook - Management discussed the potential for a super cycle in 2026 and the company's readiness to meet demand [23][24] Question: Questions regarding MCU and product lines - Management provided insights on MCU production and the company's focus on various product lines, including NOR Flash and NAND Flash [25][26] Question: Further inquiries on specific technologies and market trends - Management addressed questions related to specific technologies such as CMOS Image Sensors and market trends in automotive and consumer electronics [27][28]

Key Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the macroeconomic environment, with manufacturing PMI at 49.0%, indicating a contraction, while non-manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 50.1% [5][6] - The semiconductor industry shows promising growth, particularly for companies like Jinghe Integrated, which reported a 20% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, driven by new product developments [9][10] - The defense and aerospace sector, represented by companies like Guangwei Composite, experienced a revenue increase of 4.4% year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 32.55% [18][19] Macroeconomic Overview - October's PMI data reflects a significant impact from holiday scheduling and international trade uncertainties, leading to weaker manufacturing supply and demand [5][6] - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, while new orders also declined [5][6] - Non-manufacturing sectors showed slight improvement, with construction activity indicating a positive trend [5][6] Semiconductor Industry - Jinghe Integrated's Q3 2025 results show a revenue of 8.13 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.9% [10] - The company is actively developing OLED DDIC, CIS, automotive-grade chips, and PMICs, with a focus on process upgrades [9][10] - The transition to 4F2+CBA architecture in DRAM is expected to create outsourcing opportunities for peripheral circuits [12] Defense and Aerospace Sector - Guangwei Composite reported total revenue of 1.986 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 4.4% increase, but net profit fell by 32.55% [18][19] - The company’s third-quarter revenue was 785 million yuan, reflecting a 5.24% year-on-year increase and a 23.58% quarter-on-quarter increase [18][19] - The energy new materials segment showed rapid growth, with a 58.95% increase in revenue, while the fiber expansion segment saw a decline [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Jinghe Integration, a leading 12-inch wafer foundry in China, has shown strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and a competitive position in the semiconductor industry [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jinghe Integration was established on May 19, 2015, and went public on May 5, 2023, on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with its headquarters in Hefei, Anhui Province [1]. - The company specializes in 12-inch wafer foundry services, offering various process nodes and technology platforms [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Jinghe Integration reported revenue of 8.13 billion yuan, ranking first in the industry, surpassing the industry average of 4.55 billion yuan and the median of 5.42 billion yuan [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 395 million yuan, ranking third in the industry, above the industry average of 137 million yuan [2]. - The company's gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 25.90%, higher than the industry average of 22.14% [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 4.89% to 59,700, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 5.14% to 19,900 [5]. - Major shareholders include various ETFs, with notable changes in holdings among top shareholders [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is actively developing products such as OLED DDIC, CIS, automotive-grade chips, and PMIC, with a focus on process upgrades [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 10.86 billion yuan, 12.48 billion yuan, and 14.15 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 855 million yuan, 1.26 billion yuan, and 1.53 billion yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 20% and a gross margin recovery [3][8] - The company is actively developing new products such as OLED DDIC, CIS, automotive-grade chips, and PMIC, alongside process upgrades [3][8] - The transition of DRAM technology to 4F2+CBA architecture is expected to create outsourcing opportunities for peripheral circuit manufacturing [3][8] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.13 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 25.9% and a net profit of 550 million RMB, reflecting a 97% year-on-year increase [8] - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 27.7% in 2024, 17.6% in 2025, and 14.7% in 2026 [7] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 72.3 billion RMB, with PE ratios of 91.1, 66.9, and 53.8 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings that were slightly above expectations, with a revenue of 1.612 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.04% [2][3]. - The company is benefiting significantly from the recovery in the packaging and testing industry, as well as the continued growth of digital products such as SoC and CIS [3]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 reached 438 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207%, nearing the upper limit of the earnings forecast [4]. - The demand for SoC testing machines has surged due to AI developments, positioning the company to benefit from domestic AI production and storage expansion [5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue was 3.779 billion yuan, up 49.05% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 1.612 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 438 million yuan, with a significant increase in profit margins despite a slight decline in gross margin due to product mix changes [4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 5.098 billion, 6.971 billion, and 8.921 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.0%, 36.7%, and 28.0% [6]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.108 billion, 1.600 billion, and 2.005 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 141.8%, 44.4%, and 25.3% [6]. Valuation Metrics - As of October 29, 2025, the company's stock price was 92.52 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 53, 36, and 29 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Summary of Nexchip (688249.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nexchip - **Ticker**: 688249.SS - **Industry**: Semiconductor, focusing on CIS, PMIC, Logic IC, and MCUs Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenue**: Rmb2.9 billion, representing a 23% year-over-year (YoY) increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase, exceeding Goldman Sachs estimates by 9% [1][4] - **Gross Margin**: Improved to 26.1%, higher than Goldman Sachs estimate of 25.5% and last quarter's 24.3% [1][4] - **Operating Profit**: Rmb246 million, up 15% YoY and 49% QoQ, 12% above Goldman Sachs estimates [1][4] - **Net Income**: Rmb218 million, a significant increase of 137% YoY and 11% QoQ, although 11% below Goldman Sachs estimates due to unexpected non-operating losses [1][4] Product Diversification and Technology Migration - **Product Range**: Nexchip is diversifying its product offerings from DDIC to include CIS, PMIC, Logic ICs, and MCUs [1] - **Technology Nodes**: The company is migrating towards advanced technology nodes, including 40nm, 28nm, and 22nm, with trial production of 28nm logic ICs starting [1][4] - **Revenue Contribution**: Expected decline in traditional DDIC revenue contribution from 59% in 2025E to 53% in 2026E and 47% in 2027E, indicating a shift towards diversified revenue streams [1][4] Earnings Revisions - **Net Income Revisions**: 2025E net income revised down by 3% due to larger-than-expected non-operating losses, while 2026E and 2027E net income estimates increased by 1% each [6][7] - **Revenue Revisions**: 2025E-27E revenues increased by 3%, 1%, and 1% respectively, reflecting a more positive outlook on capacity ramp-up [6][7] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: Increased by 14.6% to Rmb41.7, based on a target P/E of 62.0x for 2026E, which is at the high end of Nexchip's historical trading range [1][7] - **Current Valuation**: The stock is trading at a 54x 2026E P/E, with a fair valuation considering the average trading P/E of 31x since August 2023 [1][7] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: Include slower or faster-than-expected capacity expansion, demand fluctuations in DDIC and CIS, R&D pace, and competitive intensity [15] Conclusion - **Rating**: Neutral, with a fair valuation and moderate upside potential to the target price [1][7]

Core Viewpoint - Hefei Jinghe Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC as the exclusive sponsor, while currently being listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is a global leader in 12-inch pure wafer foundry services, focusing on advanced process research and application, providing wafer foundry services across process nodes from 150nm to 40nm, and steadily advancing the 28nm platform [4][5] - The company has established mass production capabilities for technology nodes from 150nm to 40nm and has a diverse process platform covering DDIC, CIS, PMIC, Logic IC, and MCU, which supports its leading position in key market segments [5][6] Group 2: Market Position and Growth - According to Frost & Sullivan, from 2020 to 2024, the company has the fastest capacity and revenue growth among the top ten global wafer foundry companies, and by 2024, it is projected to be the ninth largest globally and the third largest in mainland China by revenue [4] - The company is expected to be the largest DDIC wafer foundry globally and the fifth largest CIS wafer foundry globally by 2024, as well as the third largest CIS wafer foundry in mainland China [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years ending December 31 for 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well as for the six months ending June 30, 2024, and 2025, were RMB 10.026 billion, RMB 7.183 billion, RMB 9.120 billion, RMB 4.331 billion, and RMB 5.130 billion respectively [6] - The company's attributable profit for the same periods were RMB 3.045 billion, RMB 119 million, RMB 482 million, RMB 195 million, and RMB 232 million respectively [6][7] Group 4: R&D and Future Plans - The company has a high-quality R&D team with 1,924 members, accounting for 35% of total employees, with 64.8% holding a master's degree or higher, reflecting its academic depth and professional strength [6] - The funds from the upcoming financing will be used for R&D and optimization of a new generation 22nm technology platform, AI-based intelligent R&D and production planning, establishing a R&D and sales center in Hong Kong, and general corporate purposes [9]

Core Viewpoint - Hefei Jinghe Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. (Jinghe Integrated) has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) as its sole sponsor [1][4]. Company Overview - Jinghe Integrated is a leading global 12-inch pure wafer foundry established in 2015, focusing on advanced process research and application, providing wafer foundry services across a range of process nodes from 150nm to 40nm, and steadily advancing its 28nm platform [4][7]. - According to Frost & Sullivan, Jinghe Integrated has the fastest capacity and revenue growth among the top ten global wafer foundry companies from 2020 to 2024, projected to be the ninth largest globally and the third largest in mainland China by revenue in 2024 [4]. Technological Capabilities - The company has established mass production capabilities for technology nodes from 150nm to 40nm and possesses technical capabilities across various process platforms, including DDIC, CIS, PMIC, Logic IC, and MCU, supporting its leading position in key market segments [7]. - Jinghe Integrated strategically positions itself at the core of the semiconductor value chain, providing specialized platforms for transforming chip designs into low-power, high-performance foundry chips, with applications in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, smart home, industrial control, AI, and IoT [7]. Research and Development - The company has built strong R&D capabilities in mainstream technology nodes from 150nm to 40nm and has made significant progress in developing the 28nm logic chip platform, supported by continuous R&D investment and technological advancements [7]. - As of June 30, 2025, Jinghe Integrated holds 1,177 patents, including 911 invention patents, and has 175 patent applications, with 91 invention patent applications in China and other jurisdictions [7]. Financial Performance - Jinghe Integrated has demonstrated relatively stable performance throughout the industry cycle, with total revenues of RMB 10,025.5 million, RMB 7,182.7 million, RMB 9,119.6 million, RMB 4,331.1 million, and RMB 5,129.8 million for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the six months ending June 30 for 2024 and 2025, respectively [8]. - The gross profit margins for the same periods were 43.1%, 20.3%, 25.2%, 24.1%, and 24.6%, while net profits were RMB 3,156.2 million, RMB 119.2 million, RMB 482.2 million, RMB 194.8 million, and RMB 232.0 million, with net profit margins of 31.5%, 1.7%, 5.3%, 4.5%, and 4.5% [8].