Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in UK retail sales, marking the largest drop in 18 months due to reduced consumer spending on food and household goods [1] - In May, UK retail sales fell by 2.7%, exceeding the forecasted decline of 0.5%, and representing the largest monthly drop since December 2023 [1] - Year-on-year, overall retail sales in May decreased by 1.3%, with food sales down by 5% and household goods sales down by 2.5%, contributing to the overall decline [1] Group 2 - The UK economy shows signs of cooling after a 0.7% growth in the first quarter, as indicated by the sharp decline in retail sales [1] - In May, the UK government borrowed £17.7 billion, surpassing the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) forecast of £17.1 billion, and representing an increase of £0.7 billion compared to the same month last year [1] - Public sector spending in May rose by £6.4 billion year-on-year, which was offset by a £5.7 billion increase in tax revenue, partly due to an £1.8 billion rise in national insurance contributions [1] Group 3 - The first two months of the new fiscal year saw borrowing of £37.7 billion, which is lower than the OBR's prediction of £40.7 billion [2] - The UK Treasury is under pressure to adhere to fiscal rules aimed at balancing day-to-day spending and income by the 2029-30 fiscal year while improving public services and stimulating economic growth [2] - The Chancellor announced an annual increase of £29 billion in funding for the National Health Service (NHS), while other areas of day-to-day spending will face cuts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The UK government, under Prime Minister Starmer, remains committed to adhering to fiscal rules [1] Group 1 - The government emphasizes its dedication to maintaining financial discipline and fiscal responsibility [1]

Economic Indicators - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing economists' expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, contrary to predictions of a rise to 4.3% [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 were 233,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and a decrease from the previous week's 237,000 [1] - The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services for May was $71.5 billion, wider than the expected $70.8 billion and an increase from the previous value of $61.6 billion [1] Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a vote of 218 to 214, which has faced criticism for reducing federal aid and increasing long-term debt while providing tax cuts for the wealthy and large corporations [2] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June was reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.6, indicating a rebound in business activity and orders, although the employment index showed the largest contraction in three months [2] International Trade and Monetary Policy - The European Commission President stated that the EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the U.S. on tariffs, but will take countermeasures to protect the European economy if negotiations fail [2] - The European Central Bank's governing council member indicated that market expectations for another rate cut this year are reasonable, as multiple factors suggest inflation risks are more likely to trend downward [2] Japanese Economic Developments - The Bank of Japan received key support for its interest rate hike process, with companies agreeing to a 5.25% wage increase, the largest in 34 years, and summer bonuses averaging 4.37%, reaching a record of 991,000 yen [3] - A hawkish BOJ committee member suggested that the rate hike cycle would only be "briefly paused" before resuming [3]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, emphasizes that adhering to fiscal rules can attract more investment into the country [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the importance of fiscal discipline in fostering a favorable investment climate [1] - Reeves suggests that maintaining strict fiscal rules can enhance investor confidence and lead to increased capital inflow [1] - The Chancellor's remarks indicate a strategic approach to economic management aimed at stimulating growth through investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, emphasizes the government's commitment to fiscal rules and economic stability [1] Group 1 - The government aims to establish clear fiscal rules to ensure long-term economic stability [1] - Starmer highlights the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment to foster growth and investment [1] - The focus on fiscal responsibility is intended to build public trust and confidence in the government's economic management [1]

Core Viewpoint - The emotional breakdown of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves during a parliamentary session has led to significant market reactions, raising concerns about her position and the government's stability [2][3][5]. Market Reactions - UK borrowing costs surged, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 22 basis points to 4.681%, marking the largest single-day sell-off since October 10, 2022 [3]. - The British pound fell over 1% against the US dollar, dropping below the 1.36 mark, which is the largest single-day decline since mid-June [3]. - The mid-cap index in the UK dropped by 1.65%, underperforming compared to European markets [5]. Political Context - Reeves faced backlash for a series of policy reversals that have created a fiscal gap in the budget plan, leading to investor unease [5]. - The government had to abandon measures that could have led to long-term savings, which has raised concerns about potential tax increases or spending cuts in the upcoming annual budget [5][6]. - Opposition leaders criticized Reeves, questioning her capability and the support she has from Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has not explicitly backed her amidst the turmoil [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The UK government faces turmoil as the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, shows signs of instability, leading to a significant drop in the British pound and a sharp rise in government bond yields [1] Group 1: Government and Economic Impact - The UK government was forced to make substantial concessions on welfare cuts, which has contributed to market volatility [1] - Following Reeves' uneasy performance in Parliament, UK government bond yields accelerated their decline [1] - The speculation surrounding Reeves' position has created uncertainty in the UK market, despite the Prime Minister's press secretary stating that Reeves has not resigned [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Analysts, such as Michael Brown from Pepperstone, suggest that the market interprets the Prime Minister's previous confidence in Reeves' tenure as a sign that she may not remain in her position for long [1] - There is an expectation that Reeves' successor, whoever that may be, will significantly relax fiscal rules, further impacting market sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced plans to achieve fiscal rules by the autumn [1] Group 1 - The government aims to implement fiscal rules to ensure financial stability and responsible budgeting [1] - The announcement reflects a commitment to managing public finances effectively amid economic challenges [1] - The fiscal rules are expected to guide future government spending and investment decisions [1]

新华财经北京6月10日电市场密切关注着英国政府即将公布的预算削减幅度，当地时间周二（6月10日） 午后，投资者大举买入英债，除3 月期短债外，其余期限品种英债收益率全线大幅下行，1年期英债和 10年期英债收益率一度下跌逾10BPs。 截至新华财经21:20分发稿时，除3个月期英债外，其余期限品种英债收益率延续下行态势，其中1年期 英债收益率9.7BPs至3.78%， 2年期英债收益率跌9.1BPs至3.914%，10年期英债收益率跌9BPs至 4.543%，30年期英债收益率跌7.8BPs至5.249%。 据英国当地媒体报道，监管警务、保障性住房、环境和地方政府的部门面临资金紧张，英国财政大臣雷 切尔·里夫斯和多位政府部长在最近几周进行了多次谈判，他们希望从财政部获得更大的预算。 英国首相的官方发言人周一表示，有关支出审查的谈判终于结束了。 市场仍在对周二上午发布的就业报告做出反应，该报告显示英国劳动力市场持续疲软——失业率上升， 工资增长低于预期。安信集团（AXA）的G7经济学家加布里埃拉·狄更斯称这是一次"鸽派"的发布，重 申了她的观点，即英国央行将在今年年底前将利率从目前的4.25%下调至3.75%。 ...

英国国家统计局周三表示，截至3月的财政年度预算赤字为1519亿英镑(2020亿美元)，高于预算责任办 公室预测的1373亿英镑，而该预测数字本身已被向上修正过。 智通财经APP获悉，英国政府的借款规模超过了仅在上个月做出的官方预测，这凸显出在美加征关税致 使经济前景黯淡之前，公共财政状况就已十分脆弱。 财政部首席秘书Darren Jones表示："在不断变化的世界中，经济稳定至关重要。我们绝不能对公共财政 敷衍了事，这就是我们的财政规则不可协商的原因，也是我们17年来首次逐笔审查纳税人资金支出，以 杜绝浪费的原因。" 另一项用于确定财政部债务出售规模的指标在过去财政年度也超出了官方预测。中央政府净现金需求实 际达到1805亿英镑，而非预算责任办公室在3月26日春季声明中预测的1726亿英镑。 然而，债务管理办公室决定通过增发国库券而非国债来填补本财政年度融资计划中49亿英镑的缺口，并 将英国国债的销售目标下调了1亿英镑，至2991亿英镑。这将通过减少长期债券的拍卖和银团承销来实 现，同时增加短期债券的发行量。受债券市场近期波动影响，30年期英国国债收益率大幅下跌，在政策 调整后又下跌了10个基点，至5.27% ...