宏 观 研 究 华福证券 投资要点： 美联储时隔 9 个月重启降息，基于本次决策上修了对经济增长和核心通胀 宏 观 点 评 的展望，点阵图显示当前美联储内部对降息的讨论十分胶着。当地时间 9 月 17 日下午，美联储召开本年度倒数第三次 FOMC 会议并决议降息 25BP，本次 降息后联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4%-4.25%。美联储在本次声明中删除此 前自五月以来所称的"尽管净出口动荡对经济数据造成影响"，新增"就业增 长放缓，失业率有所上升"，以及"（委员会）判断劳动力市场下行风险已经上 升"的描述。基于本次降息可能带来的影响，在经济预测总结（SEP）中，美 联储将 25Q4、26Q4 和 27Q4 美国实际 GDP 同比预测分别上修了 0.2、0.2 和 0.1 个百分点；并将 26Q4 核心 PCE 预测上修 0.2 个百分点；同时，分别下修 26Q4 和 27Q4 美国失业率预测 0.1 个百分点。总体来看，一定程度上凸显美联 储对降息后美国经济复苏的信心。本次会议点阵图显示，19 名与会者中有 9 名美联储官员认为年内最多再降息一次，10 名认为应降息两次或更多，指向当 前美联储内部对降息幅度的 ...

美东时间9月17日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至 4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。 这是美联储今年开年以来六次FOMC会议首次决定降息，美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，虽然失业 率依然处于低位，但已经略有上升，新增就业岗位减少，就业面临的下行风险也在增加。与此同时，通 胀最近有所上升，仍然略高于正常水平。同时，美联储也决定继续缩减所持证券规模。 而他在问答环节则表示，今天联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）对降息50个基点呼声的支持并不多。 以下是鲍威尔记者会问答环节： Q1：你们今天欢迎了新的联储委员会成员Steven Myron，但他仍然保留了白宫职务。这是几十年来首 次有联储理事与白宫行政部门有直接联系。这是否削弱了美联储在日常事务中保持政治独立性的能力？ 此外，在这种情况下，你们要如何维持公众对美联储政治中立的信任？ 鲍威尔：我们今天确实迎来了一位新的委员会成员，就像我们历来会做的那样。委员会在追求双重使命 目标上仍然是团结一致的。我们坚定地致力于维护我们的独立性。除此之外，我没有更多要分享的。 Q2：你和其他美联储官员经常谈到关税对通 ...

一个大放水的时代即将到来，你做好准备了吗？ 9月17日，美联储将召开9月份的议息会议，目前市场的普遍预期，是降息25个基点。 但比起接下来的大放水，这25个基点只能算是毛毛雨。 德国商业银行最近发布的一篇分析，惊出了华尔街的一身冷汗，在这篇分析中，德国商业银行指出了一个惊人的事实：不知不觉间，特朗普距离接管美联储 已经越来越近了。 而特朗普一旦接管美联储，全球经济大放水将不可避免，不管是对美债黄金外汇，还是对中国的楼市股市存款，都将影响巨大，这将关系到我们每一个人的 钱袋子。 而现任的7名理事里，除了美联储主席之外，有两个人是特朗普上一个任期提名的，他们就公开站在了特朗普的一边，比如克里斯托弗·沃勒，他一直紧跟特 朗普的脚本，呼吁美联储应该大幅度降息，他也被认为是下一任美联储主席的热门人选。 为什么说特朗普即将接管美联储呢？这得从美联储的决策机制说起。 美联储的最高决策机构，叫做联邦市场公开委员会，里面一共有12名票决委员，每次加息降息印钞这些大事，都由这12个人投票说了算。 这12个人里面，有8名常设成员和4名轮换成员。 4名轮换成员都是地区联储银行的行长，任期只有一年，所以影响力比较弱，必须听其它大佬的， ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：对（非农）就业数据质量表示质疑。劳工统计局数据需经过审批 和现代化改进。货币政策必须完全独立。目前美联储的独立性存在争议。目前没有彻底改革美联储的计 划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump to potentially dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook marks a significant deviation from over a century of presidential restraint regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's ongoing conflict with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over monetary policy has escalated, with Trump advocating for interest rate cuts to alleviate government debt pressure, while Powell insists on maintaining the independence of monetary policy [1]. - The Federal Reserve's board, which is supposed to remain neutral, has become a battleground for political power struggles, with Trump aiming to secure a majority by appointing his allies [1]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - If Trump successfully exerts control over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to quicker interest rate cuts, potentially shifting international capital towards emerging markets like China and strengthening the renminbi [2]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk of being undermined, raising concerns that monetary policy could become a tool of political influence rather than an independent economic mechanism [2]. Group 3: Historical Context - This situation represents an unprecedented challenge to the Federal Reserve's century-long tradition of independence, with global markets closely monitoring the developments [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the criticism from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin towards the Federal Reserve, emphasizing concerns over its independence due to its expanded functions and the use of non-standard policies [1][2]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Mnuchin argues that the Federal Reserve's overreach in its responsibilities has jeopardized its credibility and political legitimacy, calling for a comprehensive review of the institution [1][2]. - The article indicates that the Trump administration's criticism of the Federal Reserve has escalated, questioning not only the need for interest rate cuts but also the overall operational model of the Fed [1][3]. Group 2: Call for Independent Review - Mnuchin demands an honest, independent, and non-partisan review of the entire Federal Reserve, including its monetary policy, regulation, communication, staffing, and research [3]. - He expresses anticipation for a response from the Federal Reserve regarding his call for an internal review, emphasizing that good management is achieved through action rather than mere discussion [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework Concerns - Mnuchin criticizes the Dodd-Frank Act for significantly expanding the Federal Reserve's regulatory scope, which he believes has blurred the lines between monetary and fiscal policy [4]. - He suggests a more coherent framework where the FDIC and OCC lead bank regulation while the Federal Reserve focuses on macro monitoring, lender of last resort liquidity, and monetary policy [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Experimentation - Mnuchin compares the Federal Reserve's new operational model to an uncontrolled experiment, indicating that the unconventional monetary policy tools released post-2008 financial crisis have altered the Fed's policy framework with unpredictable consequences [5][6]. - He cites the Fed's failure to accurately predict GDP growth, highlighting a significant overestimation of over $1 trillion in GDP during the recovery period [6]. Group 5: Inequality and Quantitative Easing - The article discusses Mnuchin's criticism of the quantitative easing (QE) policies post-2008, arguing that they disproportionately benefited asset owners and exacerbated wealth inequality [7]. - He points out that while large corporations benefited from low-cost debt, younger and less affluent families were left behind, suffering the most from inflation and missing out on asset appreciation opportunities [8]. Group 6: Employment Data and Federal Reserve Accountability - The article notes that the recent non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 jobs added in August, significantly below expectations, leading to further blame directed at the Federal Reserve from Trump administration officials [9]. - Trump and other officials assert that the Fed's high-interest rates are hindering economic growth and that a reconsideration of policy is necessary in light of the weak employment data [10].

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the complex interplay between gold prices, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies, highlighting the potential for gold prices to soar if the Fed's credibility is compromised [1] - Gold prices are influenced by three main factors: inflation, the US dollar, and geopolitical tensions, which create a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces [2][3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policy statements significantly impact market dynamics, with interest rate decisions reflecting internal divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts [6][7] - Market reactions to Fed officials' comments can lead to substantial fluctuations in gold prices, indicating the importance of the Fed's perceived credibility and independence [7] - The PCE price index serves as a critical indicator for the Fed's policy direction, with market expectations shifting based on upcoming data releases [8] Group 3 - The market demonstrates a keen ability to interpret Fed policies, with gold ETFs acting as a barometer for investor sentiment, showing significant inflows in 2024 [10] - Technical analysis plays a crucial role in trading strategies, with specific price levels acting as support and resistance, amplifying the effects of policy announcements [11] - Institutional reports suggest that even a minor shift in US Treasury holdings towards gold could lead to dramatic price increases, reflecting the market's sensitivity to Fed policies [12]

米兰如果获参议院批准，将填补上月阿德里亚娜・库格勒辞职留下的临时空缺。库格勒原本的任期要到 明年1月才结束，这意味着即便米兰顺利就职，他在美联储理事会的任职时间也可能仅有数月便需离 任。即便如此，特朗普政府仍在积极推动米兰的就职进程，目标是让他能赶在9月16日至17日美联储下 次利率会议召开前正式加入理事会。 外界主流观点认为，特朗普提名他可能是想在美联储理事会内部安插一位 "影子主席"，其核心职责并 非常规政策制定，而是充当 "搅局者"，打破当前理事会的决策平衡。 作为美联储理事，米兰若就职将拥有在FOMC的利率决策中的投票权以及能对与华尔街监管规则相关的 重大决策投票。此外，他还将参与美联储内部关于员工管理及各类内部事务的讨论，这些讨论虽不直接 涉及政策，却会间接影响央行的运行效率。 dbg盾博发现特朗普政府提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬・米兰出任美联储理事会新成员，外界普 遍疑虑在政府持续向美联储施压的当下，若他顺利就职，是否会削弱央行长期以来的独立性。 周三公开的听证预备证词中，米兰明确表示，在自己的认知里，央行的核心价值在于防范像大萧条那样 的深度衰退以及可能摧毁民众财富的恶性通胀，而要实现这一目 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizes the importance of maintaining the independence of the central bank and its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Responsibilities - The primary responsibility of the central bank is to prevent economic downturns and hyperinflation, with monetary policy independence being crucial for its success [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve plays a vital role in managing liquidity in the financial system, which requires regular and precise adjustments [5]. - The Federal Reserve oversees the most significant financial institutions globally and sets different funding prices for borrowers, including other central banks [2][5]. Group 2: Miran's Background and Perspectives - Miran has served as the Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers and has extensive experience in monetary policy and macroeconomics, having studied at Harvard University [3][4]. - He has previously criticized the Federal Reserve's aggressive stimulus measures during the COVID-19 crisis and aims to base his decisions on macroeconomic analysis and long-term economic governance [1][4]. - Miran acknowledges the complexity of the Federal Reserve's functions and the importance of effective monetary policy for the economy's proper functioning and the maintenance of strong capital markets [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing for Stephen Milan, nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizing the importance of preventing economic recession and hyperinflation as the central bank's primary tasks [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Independence - Milan asserts that the independence of monetary policy is crucial for its success [1] - He plans to fulfill his duties based on macroeconomic analysis and long-term beneficial judgments if confirmed [1] - Milan intends to maintain the independence of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is tasked with significant responsibilities [1] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - Milan raises questions regarding the Federal Reserve's activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly concerning its balance sheet [1] - He highlights the Fed's role in regulating major financial institutions and setting different capital prices for borrowers and lenders, including other central banks [1] - The final composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains an unresolved issue [1]