Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analyzes that if Kevin Warsh is elected as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, his policy stance may present a unique combination of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" [1][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Candidacy and Market Reactions - President Trump has indicated that Kevin Warsh is a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, alongside Kevin Hassett, which has led to a significant drop in Hassett's odds in prediction markets [1]. - As of the latest data, prediction markets suggest that Warsh has a higher probability of becoming the next Fed Chair compared to Hassett [1]. Group 2: Warsh's Policy Proposals - Deutsche Bank's report highlights that if Warsh is elected, he would support interest rate cuts while also advocating for a reduction in the balance sheet [3]. - The feasibility of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" hinges on regulatory reforms that lower banks' reserve requirements, which is currently uncertain [3]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Criticism of Fed Policies - Warsh, a lawyer by training, has extensive experience in both public and private sectors, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [4]. - He has been a strong critic of the Fed's aggressive balance sheet operations over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [5][6]. - Warsh has expressed concerns that continued QE could lead to inflation and financial stability risks, suggesting that the Fed's actions may distort market signals [6][7]. Group 4: Warsh's Views on Forward Guidance and Monetary Policy - Warsh has criticized the Fed for over-relying on data and lacking forward guidance, stating that the forward guidance tool introduced during the financial crisis has little effect in normal times [9]. - He questions the Fed's understanding of monetary policy, suggesting misconceptions about the relationship between monetary policy and money supply [9][10]. Group 5: Implications for Future Fed Leadership - Deutsche Bank emphasizes that regardless of who is chosen as the next Fed Chair, the market will likely test the new leader's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [13]. - The report expresses skepticism about significant policy changes following the leadership transition in June, especially given the divided committee dynamics [13].

据新华网12月13日消息，美国总统特朗普12月12日表示，美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什是下一任美联储主席职位的头号候选人，白宫国家经济委 员会主任凯文·哈西特也很出色。 图片来源：视觉中国 （图文无关） 美国总统特朗普12月2日在白宫举行的内阁会议上说，他很可能在2026年初公布下任美国联邦储备委员会主席提名人选，以接替将于2026年5月结束任期 的现任主席鲍威尔。 特朗普12月2日当天还确认，美国财政部长贝森特无意担任美联储主席的职务。 特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔。今年1月再次就任总统后，特朗普反复批评鲍威尔，指责美联储降息过慢，并威胁解除鲍威尔职务。美 联储能否保持货币政策独立性引发广泛担忧。 另据媒体报道，英国《金融时报》消息，日前，摩根大通CEO杰米.戴蒙在纽约的一场私密资产管理CEO会议上明确表态称，他支持凯文.沃什出任美联 储下一任主席。 特朗普当天在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，沃什位列他心目中的名单前列。他同时称，沃什和哈西特两人都不错。 特朗普说，希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%甚至更低"，以帮助美国财政部降低美国国债的高额融资成本。他还说，下任美联储主席应该在制定利 率 ...

忠诚度与专业性的权衡 这种担忧在华尔街并非个例。多位掌管着30万亿美元美债市场的资深投资者，已直接向财政部官员表达 了对哈赛特政治倾向的顾虑，质疑其与特朗普过于紧密的政治结盟可能动摇货币政策的公信力。 周四，华尔街最有权势的银行家之一、摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙在纽约的一场私密资产管理CEO会议上 明确表态：支持前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）执掌美联储。 特朗普一直对现任主席鲍威尔（Jay Powell）不仅未大幅降息反而加息的做法耿耿于怀，甚至曾私下辱 骂其为"笨蛋"。特朗普明确表示，忠诚度和积极降息的意愿是他选人的关键标准。 戴蒙直言，沃什将成为一位"伟大的主席"，并向在场的华尔街高管们发出警告：另一位热门候选人凯文 ·哈赛特（Kevin Hassett）可能更顺从白宫的降息意愿，但这恰恰可能引发市场的反向博弈，导致长期借 贷成本不降反升，损害美联储至关重要的独立性。 戴蒙的警告：短端听命总统，长端听命市场 据英国《金融时报》报道，戴蒙在闭门会议中分析指出，若哈赛特当选，他极有可能会迅速降低短期利 率，以配合特朗普的经济诉求。然而，美联储只能控制短端利率，长期利率（如10年期美债收益率）则 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, totaling a reduction of 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one more 25 basis point rate cut next year, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts compared to this year [2] - There is significant dissent among Fed officials regarding the rate cut, with concerns about stagnant inflation and a cooling job market [2] Group 2 - The global interest rate environment is fundamentally changing, with many economies potentially shifting from a rate-cutting phase to a rate-hiking phase, as evidenced by Australia's recent decision to maintain its cash rate at 3.60% due to resilient domestic demand [3] - Australia's CPI for October rose to 3.8%, exceeding previous values and market expectations, driven by strong consumer spending and government investment [3][4] - Canada is following a similar trend, with its central bank maintaining a benchmark rate of 2.25% while strong employment and GDP data suggest a potential shift towards rate hikes [4] Group 3 - Japan is currently the only developed economy in a rate-hiking phase, having announced a rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% to address domestic inflation pressures [5] - Japan's rate hike could significantly impact global liquidity, as it is a major provider of funds in the global market [5] Group 4 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to shift its monetary policy, with President Lagarde indicating an upward revision of economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone [6] - The Eurozone's economy grew by 0.2% in the third quarter, driven by increased investment in digital services, leading to a slight increase in market expectations for ECB rate hikes [7] - Long-term bond yields in Europe have surged, with significant increases in yields for UK, German, and French bonds, reflecting concerns over fiscal conditions and rising military expenditures due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]

Group 1 - COMEX gold experienced a sharp decline of over $100 within two hours, closing at $4329.8 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 3.88% to $62.085 per ounce after a peak decline of 5.5% [1][3] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices close lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.51%, the Nasdaq down by 1.69%, and the S&P 500 down by 1.07% [4][6] - President Trump expressed a preference for either Waller or Hassett to lead the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the need for communication regarding interest rates, while Fed officials have pushed back against calls for rate cuts [4][5] Group 2 - Fed official Goolsbee highlighted the importance of the Fed's independence, stating that interest rate decisions should not be influenced by government borrowing costs, which he referred to as a form of debt monetization [5] - Several Fed officials have expressed skepticism about the prospects for interest rate cuts, indicating a desire to wait for more economic data before making decisions [7] - The labor market is cooling but remains balanced, with inflation still considered too high, prompting a preference for a moderately restrictive monetary policy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a complex economic situation in the U.S., characterized by high inflation and a weakening job market, leading to a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year [1][5]. Economic Context - The current federal funds rate is set between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the sixth rate cut since September of the previous year [1]. - Core PCE inflation remains high at 2.8%, exceeding the Fed's target of 2%, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest since November 2021 [1][4]. Political Influence - Former President Trump criticized the Fed for the modest rate cut, suggesting it should have been doubled, reflecting his preference for aggressive monetary easing to stimulate economic growth [3][4]. - The internal dissent within the Fed was notable, with three members voting against the decision, indicating differing views on the economic outlook [3]. Fed's Stance - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the decision to cut rates was challenging and aimed at assessing future economic performance, indicating a cautious approach to further easing [3][5]. - Powell directly attributed rising inflation to Trump's tariff policies, highlighting the Fed's effort to maintain its independence from political pressures [4]. Global Economic Impact - The rate cut is expected to weaken the dollar, benefiting commodities priced in dollars, and potentially stimulate investment and consumption globally [5]. - However, there are risks associated with rapid rate cuts, including increased inflationary pressures and the potential for asset bubbles [5]. Future Considerations - The ongoing tension between Trump's growth-focused approach and Powell's dual mandate of employment and price stability will continue to influence Fed policy [4][5]. - The selection of the next Fed Chair, as Trump seeks a candidate more aligned with his views on aggressive rate cuts, could have significant implications for U.S. and global monetary policy [4][5].

据央视新闻客户端消息，美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率 目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间。 10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就委员会降息决定发表讲话。鲍威尔表示，美联储的货币政策行动以促进美国 民众充分就业和物价稳定的双重使命为指导。在当日的会议上，委员会决定降息25个基点，短期内通胀 风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，形势充满挑战。通过当日的决定，委员会在过去三次会议上已累计 下调政策利率0.75个百分点。此举有助于稳定劳动力市场，并在关税影响消退后，使通胀恢复至2%的 下降趋势。 鲍威尔称，自9月以来，委员会对政策立场的调整使其处于中性预期范围内，这使他们能够根据最新数 据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡，更好地确定政策利率进一步调整的幅度和时机。 鲍威尔表示，在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的经济预测总结中，与会者分别就各自认为最有可能的 经济情景下联邦基金利率的适当路径进行了评估。2026年底联邦基金利率的预测中值为3.4%，2027年 底为3.1%，与9月份的预测持平。然而，这些预测存在不确定性，并非委员会的计划或决定。货币政策 并非预设路线，他们将根据每 ...

12月4日，尽管金价尚未重新触及10月超过4360美元/盎司的历史高位，但多家市场机构的估值模型显 示，当前水平已接近其合理区间。在全球经济不确定性持续升温的背景下，黄金在多轮震荡后的突破中 不断抬升支撑位，这一走势与避险与配置需求增强的市场格局高度吻合。OEXN认为，这种结构性上移 的支撑带反映了资金对长期风险的持续定价。 投资者普遍期待的"大幅回调"迟迟未出现，主要因为经济动能转弱的迹象正在累积，而这正为贵金属提 供稳固底盘。市场押注主要央行将在下周至2026年期间启动连续降息周期，使名义与实际收益率同步下 行，并削弱美元的强势。10月金价在冲上4360美元后出现获利抛压，但回调有限，4000美元上方支撑始 终稳定。短暂整理后，黄金稳固于约4200美元区间。多项模型显示，在全球债务增长与利率下行的组合 下，黄金的表现完全符合逻辑。OEXN认为，这一支撑区间的韧性，反映了长期需求的结构化强化。 在关注上涨潜力的同时，黄金的下行空间亦值得审视。理论上金价可能下探3800美元，但模型显示该区 域同样具备强支撑，跌破4000美元需出现显著外部冲击。在更极端的空头场景中，政策利率需重新升至 5%，而这种情况往往伴随 ...

特朗普当天还确认，美国财政部长贝森特无意担任美联储主席的职务。 2025.12. 03 本文字数：559，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普12月2日在白宫举行的内阁会议上说，他很可能在2026年初公布下任 美国联邦储备委员会主席提名人选，以接替将于2026年5月结束任期的现任主席鲍威尔。 此前，特朗普称已就新任美联储主席提名人选做出决定。据知情人士说法，在特朗普及其顾问和盟友 眼中， 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特是下任美联储主席的头号候选人 。根据相关法律规 定，美国总统提名美联储主席人选后，需获参议院批准。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任。后在拜登政府时期获得 提名连任。 特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔。今年1月再次就任总统后，特朗普反复批评鲍威尔， 指责美联储降息过慢，并威胁解除鲍威尔职务。美联储能否保持货币政策独立性引发广泛担忧。 更多最新消息： 特朗普积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席；俄总统助理：目前暂无乌克兰问题妥协方案；外交部：任 何外部势力胆敢介入台海事务，我们必将迎头痛击丨早报 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 ...

CFN | 大河/文 当地时间11月30日，美国总统特朗普确认已敲定下一任美联储主席人选，尽管具体提名尚未公布，但无论最终接任者是市场预测概率达58%的凯文・哈西 特，还是其他四位候选者之一，其上任后都将直面美国经济多重矛盾交织的复杂局面——经济增长乏力、就业市场降温、债务规模高企、美元霸权根基松 动，叠加美联储政策独立性受政治干预的风险，这一职位的挑战难度已远超往届。 经济增长与通胀的双向挤压：政策决策陷入两难 债务规模高企：降息与偿债成本的矛盾凸显 美国联邦债务的庞大规模，让下一任美联储主席的政策选择被层层束缚。截至2025年，美国联邦债务总额已达36.2万亿美元，其中9.2万亿美元将于年内到 期，占债务总额的25.4%；2024财年美国债务利息支付已超1万亿美元，若美联储按特朗普要求降息，虽能暂时降低政府借贷成本，但长期低利率环境可能 进一步刺激债务扩张，加剧债务不可持续风险；若维持高利率，到期债务再融资成本将大幅上升，联邦财政压力陡增。 这一矛盾在哈西特成为热门人选的背景下更显突出：哈西特若获提名并推动激进降息，短期或缓解债务付息压力，但会强化市场对美国债务"借新还旧"模式 的担忧，削弱美债信用；若偏 ...