今日周四(7月10日)欧市盘中，现货白银震荡上涨，截至发稿报36.57美元/盎司，涨幅0.55%，今日银价 开盘于36.34美元/盎司，最高上探至36.71美元/盎司，最低触及36.27美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 鉴于特朗普对汽车征收高额关税，日本汽车制造商正以创纪录的幅度削减出口到美国的产品价格，以牺 牲利润换取市场竞争力。根据日本央行周四发布的企业商品价格报告，6月份运往北美的车辆出口价格 指数以合同货币为基础同比下跌19.4%，创自2016年有记录以来的最大降幅。 【白银走势分析】 当前白银已经突破上方阻力位36.50美元，由此判断银价可能会进一步上涨；下方关键支撑位于36.10美 元附近（日内低点），若跌破可能测试更低区间底部。市场对美联储本周会议释放降息信号的预期升 温，但主流观点认为7月按兵不动概率较高，这可能限制银价短期涨幅 。 美联储6月政策会议纪要显示，官员们对利率前景存在分歧，金价随之走高。市场分析师Linh Tran表 示，如果通胀数据继续降温，美联储9月份降息的可能性将变得更加明显，这可能会打压美元，并为金 价进一步上涨铺平道路。与此同时，贸易紧张局势继续给全球经济增长前景蒙上阴影，预 ...

一、6月会议纪要揭示决策层分歧，7月降息预期降温但未消弭 当地时间7月9日，美联储公布6月17日至18日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要，显示部分官员支持在7月29-30日的会议上考虑降息，但多数官员认 为需等待更多经济数据以评估关税政策对通胀的影响。这一表态与市场此前对7月降息的强烈预期形成反差，导致7月10日亚市早盘黄金价格呈现震荡格局 ——伦敦金一度冲高至3326.16美元/盎司，随后回落至3318美元附近。 二、决策层分歧的核心逻辑：关税传导与通胀路径的不确定性 会议纪要显示，美联储官员对关税政策的影响存在显著分歧。部分官员认为，特朗普政府对进口商品加征的关税可能通过供应链传导推高通胀，但若贸易谈 判取得进展，这种影响可能是短暂的。例如，对巴西、菲律宾等国的20%-50%关税将于8月1日生效，可能直接推高铜、半导体等关键原材料价格，进而影响 美国制造业成本。然而，多数官员强调，当前经济数据（如6月非农就业超预期、服务业PMI回升）显示美国经济仍具韧性，过早降息可能削弱美联储应对 未来风险的政策空间。 美联储会议纪要揭示的政策分歧，使黄金市场陷入短期波动与长期看涨的博弈中。尽管7月降息预期降温，但 ...

【要闻速递】 周三（7月9日），特朗普宣布自8月1日起对从巴西进口的商品以及铜产品征收高达50%的关税，震惊全 球市场。更令人关注的是，特朗普还在本周早些时候针对14个国家发布了关税通知，其中包括对韩国和 日本进口商品征收25%的关税，并威胁称若无法达成协议，关税将于8月1日正式生效。此外，特朗普又 于周三新增了对七个次要贸易伙伴的关税通知，进一步扩大了贸易战的影响范围。 这些激进的关税措施不仅加剧了全球贸易紧张局势，也让市场对未来经济不确定性充满担忧。黄金作为 传统避险资产，在这种背景下自然受到投资者追捧。 City Index资深分析师Matt Simpson却提醒道："市场对关税新闻的反应似乎正在减弱，'关税疲劳'已经显 现，交易商可能需要新的催化剂来激发市场波动。"尽管如此，特朗普的关税政策仍在短期内为金价提 供了显著的上涨动能。 【技术分析】 从技术角度来看，黄金价格的看涨潜力仍然有限。日线图显示，金价在斐波那契水平之间形成下行通 道。金价仍低于6月份跌势的38.2%回撤位，该位在3325美元/盎司附近构成阻力位。与此同时，平坦的 20日简单移动平均线(SMA)与6月份跌势的50%斐波那契回撤位在3 ...

Group 1 - The current silver price is trading at $36.46 per ounce, with a daily opening at $36.69 and a high of $36.76, while the lowest price reached $36.42 [1][2] - Recent U.S. tariff policies announced by President Trump have escalated trade tensions, leading to increased market volatility and heightened risk aversion among investors [3] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and silver prices has created pressure on silver, but the demand for safe-haven assets has surged, driving funds into silver and pushing its price upward [3] Group 2 - The current silver price is in a weekly consolidation phase, with a daily upward trend still intact; short-term pullbacks are expected, but support is seen around the Bollinger lower band at $36.14 [4] - The CCI indicator has turned upward from the oversold zone, suggesting potential for further price increases [4] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on buying on dips, indicating a bullish outlook for silver [4]

Core Insights - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that global trade is expected to grow by $300 billion in the first half of the year, but faces increasing resistance in the second half due to uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and global geopolitical tensions [1] Trade Growth Analysis - Global trade grew approximately 1.5% in the first quarter, with an expected growth of 2% in the second quarter [1] - Price increases are the main driver of the growth in global trade value, while trade volume only increased by 1% [1] - Service trade remains the primary driver of global trade growth, with a 9% increase over the past four quarters [1] Trade Imbalance Concerns - The report indicates a worsening global trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters [1] - The recent U.S. tariff measures have heightened the risk of trade fragmentation, and potential further unilateral actions by the U.S. could escalate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chain stability [1]

与此同时，德国新政府大规模增加国防和基础设施支出的计划带来了一些乐观的预期。年初时GDP的增 长幅度超出预期，但关于这种增长势头是否会减弱或是否会演变成可持续的复苏，各方观点不一。一季 度经济增长率为 0.4%，这在一定程度上是因为企业和出口商提前应对了美国的关税措施，不过私人消 费和投资也大幅增长。 周一公布的数据显示，5月份工业生产意外出现增长，表明企业在美国可能大幅提高关税之前加紧生产 以抢占出口先机，这为经济能够摆脱多年停滞状态的预期提供了有力支撑。德国5月季调后工业产出环 比增长1.2%，好于经济学家预期的环比下降0.2%，前值为环比下降1.4%。其中，汽车、制药和能源领 域的产出均有所上升。 智通财经APP获悉，由于美国总统特朗普发出的关税威胁，德国对美国的出口量在 5 月份大幅下降，其 出口额创下了三年多以来的新低。德国统计部门周二表示，5月总出口额环比下降1.4%，市场预期为下 降0.5%，而 4 月份修正为下降1.6%。5月进口额环比下降3.8%，市场预期为下降0.9%，其中来自美国的 进口更是下降了超过 10%。5月贸易顺差从4月修正后的 157 亿欧元增加到了 184 亿欧元(约合 21 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | | 加工费临沂持稳，其他地区上调 50-70 元/吨，铝杆 1A60 系加工费持稳，6/8 系加工费 | | --- | --- | | | 持稳，低碳铝杆下调 60 元/吨。氧化铝矿石扰动和新增投产压力并存，近期财经会提出 | | | 落后产能退出消息，短期政策消息引导盘面偏强震荡，关注几内亚大选动态情况是否 | | | 带来新的扰动。加工新订单大幅缩减，电解铝需求走弱与低交割品间存在边际博弈。宏 | | | 观情绪回暖叠加国内政策托底，近月仍存挤仓风险下短期不宜过分看空，可持续跟踪 | | | 库存累库表现。铝合金整体跟随沪铝，但淡季驱动不足仍缺少同步冲劲。 | | | 隔夜 LME 镍跌 0.85%报 15130 美元/吨，沪镍跌 0.39%报 120710 元/吨。库存方面，昨 | | | 日 LME 库存维持 202470 吨，国内 SHFE 仓单减少 227 至 20832 吨。升贴水来看， | | | LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 300 元/吨。镍矿方面，印尼内贸价格 | | | 延续下跌，周度升水出现小幅下跌。不锈钢产业链来看，镍铁价格成交 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating trade tensions due to the Trump administration's tariff policies, which are causing significant market volatility and impacting global financial markets [1][3]. - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025, as part of a broader strategy to address trade imbalances [3]. - Additional tariffs will be applied to various countries, including 25% on Kazakhstan and Malaysia, 30% on South Africa, and 40% on Laos and Myanmar, indicating a comprehensive approach to trade policy [3]. Group 2 - Central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with China's central bank reporting a rise in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [4]. - Following the announcement of tariffs, international gold prices surged over 2%, reaching $3,360 per ounce, reflecting heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions [4]. - The performance of the gold market contrasts sharply with the decline in global stock markets, where major U.S. indices fell significantly due to concerns over tariff policies [4].

Group 1 - Current market sentiment for gold is cautious due to the prospect of sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which diminishes gold's appeal, while trade tensions and geopolitical risks provide some support for safe-haven assets [1] - The recent non-farm payroll data has weakened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, which puts pressure on non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the June FOMC meeting minutes, which will clarify members' assessments of the current economic outlook and future policy direction, potentially influencing interest rate trends [1] Group 2 - The daily structure of gold prices indicates a potential fourth wave adjustment after a peak at 3500, with expectations of further price movements following this adjustment [2] - On the 4-hour chart, a combined WXY three-wave adjustment is observed, with specific price levels identified for potential movements within the Y wave [4] - Recent price action shows gold rebounding to around 3342 before retreating, with a focus on support levels around 3296, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels [6] Group 3 - Trading strategies suggest buying near 3317/18 with a stop loss at 3311 and a target of 3325-3327, while also recommending short positions in the 3325-28 range with a stop loss at 3331 [7] - The domestic gold products, such as accumulation gold and futures, are closely correlated with international gold prices, with short-term trading opportunities identified amid recent price declines [8] - Accumulation gold opened lower following international gold trends, with specific support levels highlighted for potential buying opportunities [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement by President Trump regarding new tariffs on goods exported to the U.S. from over ten countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates starting at 25% and reaching up to 40% for Laos and Myanmar [1] - The new tariffs will take effect on August 1 and will apply to "all goods" from the specified countries, not limited to specific industries [1] - The existing 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum products under Section 232 will remain in place but will not be combined with the new tariffs [1] Group 2 - Countries that do not reach a trade agreement with the U.S. will face punitive tariffs of up to 70% starting in August [3] - Trump has signed and sent out approximately 12 letters to various countries regarding these tariffs [3] - Additional 10% tariffs will be imposed on countries aligning with BRICS nations and executing "anti-American policies" [4]