来源：市场资讯 （来源：真灼财经） 港股通周五录得净流出4亿港元，其中小米集团(01810.HK)净流入最多，达9.3亿港元，其次是泡泡玛特 (09992.HK)。另一方面，中芯国际(00981.HK)录得最大净流出，达27亿，其次是阿里巴巴(09988.HK)。 来源：凯基证券 美中贸易紧张氛围再度升温，美国总统以"100%关税"与"出口管制"重拳回击中国新稀土出口限制。但 于周末期间，中国商务部重申有关中国稀土出口并非全面禁运，只要符合规定的出口申请将会获得许 可，即非军用及恐怖主义用途者，均可继续出口。除此之外，联邦政府继续停摆延后官方数据释出，市 场资讯汪洋中失去指引，整体风险溢酬抬升，短线内资金或倾向避险调整资产配置。 ...

交易所交易基金(ETF)已经展现出非凡的增长势头。9月份ETF资金流入量同比激增880%，达到创纪录 的140亿美元。实物和纸黄金持有量总值已超过全球股票和固定收益市场总值的5%，几乎是之前份额的 两倍。 现时美国财政赤字、债务水平上升和货币动态继续支撑金价看涨，因为这种环境使黄金作为对冲工具、 中央银行及散户投资者的储备多元化工具保持吸引力。 展望未来，黄金是否会继续创纪录的涨势仍有待观察，交易员们密切关注贸易方面的新进展和美联储官 员的讲话。 白银方面，因为太阳能制造商减少每块面板的白银用量，预计明年需求将下降11%，但市场仍然供不应 求，市场人士预期白银价格到2026年将升至每盎司65美元。 白银价格上涨，受益于与黄金相同的私人投资流入，这些投资流入是在美联储降息的背景下发生的。 由于金价近日屡创历史新高，金矿股全面上升，投资者认为，虽然黄金已达到每盎司4,000美元的目 标，其涨势仍有上行空间。 有大行预测，展望2026年，投资需求有望增加14%，这将导致金价推高至每盎司5,000美元，平均价格 为4,400美元。假如市场投资者增加30%的热钱流向黄金，金价有望更进一步升至6000美元一盎司。 然而， ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales decreased by 0.9%, with positive pricing of 1% offset by a volume decline of 1.9% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $171 million, up 3% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 19.1%, an increase of 110 basis points year-on-year [4][11] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $1.26, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 [11] - Revenue was down 2.8% year-on-year, with currency having a positive impact of 1% [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HHC (Health and Hygiene) organic revenue decreased by 3.1%, with EBITDA up 2% year-on-year and EBITDA margin increasing to 16.9% [5] - Engineering Adhesives (EA) organic revenue increased by 2.2%, with EBITDA up 14% and EBITDA margin expanding to 23.3% [6][7] - Building Adhesive Solutions (BAS) organic sales decreased by 1%, with EBITDA increasing by 3% to $41 million and EBITDA margin expanding to 17.7% [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, organic revenue was up 1% year-on-year, driven by EA's high single-digit growth [8] - EIMEA (Europe, India, Middle East, and Africa) organic revenue declined by 2% year-on-year, with EA flat and HHC and BAS down modestly [8] - Asia-Pacific organic revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, primarily due to significant volume decline in solar [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its portfolio, driving efficiencies, and repositioning for growth and margin expansion [3][16] - Management remains cautious due to a globally subdued economic backdrop and expects volume growth to remain elusive [3][9] - The company is actively managing pricing and raw material costs while emphasizing operational efficiency [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a widespread slowing economic environment, with customer demand appearing uneven and less predictable [9] - The company anticipates a slow growth environment with continued economic volatility and high interest rates [9] - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term EBITDA margin and growth targets despite current challenges [16] Other Important Information - The company updated its financial guidance for fiscal 2025, expecting net revenue to be down 2 to 3% year-on-year and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $615 to $625 million [12][14] - Full-year adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be between $4.10 and $4.25, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7% to 11% [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Could you provide more detail behind the reduction in cash flow guidance? - Management explained that the increase in working capital, specifically inventory, is driving the decrease in cash flow expectations due to preparations for footprint consolidation [19] Question: What helped EA volumes and margins in the quarter? - Management noted a return to double-digit organic growth in electronics and strong performance in the U.S. EA business, driven by new customer wins and strong execution [24] Question: How would you explain the HHC decline in volumes versus EA? - Management indicated that EA is performing stronger than the market, while HHC volumes reflect a decline in consumer demand across major regions [27] Question: What are the pricing trends for your segments in the fourth quarter? - Management highlighted a supportive pricing environment across all three GBUs, with many companies raising prices in response to inflation and tariffs [49]

Core Viewpoint - Chile's Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG) has suspended imports of animals and animal products from Argentina's Patagonia region due to changes in Argentina's sanitary regulations that relax foot-and-mouth disease prevention standards [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Import Suspension - The suspension affects the import of bone-in meat from Patagonia, which had been recognized as a "foot-and-mouth disease-free non-immunized zone" since 2008 [1] - The new Argentine regulations allow bone-in meat from immunized areas in northern Argentina to enter Patagonia, prompting Chile to revoke its sanitary recognition of the region [1] Economic Impact - The suspension could impact approximately $30 million in annual exports of sheep and beef to Chile, which, while not substantial, poses a significant threat to Patagonia's meat processing plants and ranches that rely on the Chilean market [1] - Argentine agricultural groups have criticized the government's lack of transparency in decision-making and warned that the European Union might follow Chile's lead, further affecting exports [1] Future Actions - Chile has clarified that the ban is specific to Patagonia and that imports of northern Argentine beef will not be affected [1] - A technical team from Chile is scheduled to assess the epidemic risk in early September, while the Argentine government hopes to restore trade following this evaluation [1]

Group 1 - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - The potential for tariff adjustments may reshape supply chains and increase inflation, supporting gold prices [1] - The market anticipates a significant likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could lower the dollar and bond yields, benefiting gold prices [1] Group 2 - Spot gold faced resistance at the key level of $3,400, reaching a two-week high of $3,409 before retreating due to short sellers [1] - The price trend is still forming an ascending triangle pattern, although a brief drop below the upward trend line last week has weakened this formation [1] - Technical indicators show a neutral to mildly bullish sentiment, with a daily RSI of 57 and a positive MACD, although the ADX indicates insufficient trend strength [3] Group 3 - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have increased safe-haven demand, pushing silver above the short-term support level of $37.87 [5] - If silver maintains above this level, it may challenge the 14-year high of $39.53; however, if it falls below, it could drop to $36.90, with the 50-day moving average providing the next support [5] - Short-term trading recommendations suggest buying on a pullback at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, with further upside potential to $39.00 if broken [5]

Group 1 - International oil prices declined due to ongoing trade tensions impacting oil demand outlook, with WTI crude oil futures falling by $0.99 to $66.21 per barrel, a decrease of 1.47%, and Brent crude oil futures dropping by $0.62 to $68.59 per barrel, a decrease of 0.90% [1] - Analysts from MUFG noted that the urgency for the U.S. to reach trade agreements with partners has led to a third consecutive day of oil price declines [1] - OPEC+ producers are expected to continue voluntary production cuts of 281,000 barrels per day in September, as part of a larger 2.2 million barrels per day reduction, although there are rumors of increased production from these countries [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration plans to impose high tariffs on products from various trade partners starting August 1, with ongoing negotiations with the EU and Japan showing no significant breakthroughs, and potential retaliatory measures from the EU and Canada being prepared [2] - A recent survey by S&P Global indicated that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are expected to have decreased by 3.1 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories are projected to decline by 2 million barrels and 800,000 barrels, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut the key repo rate by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations, while also significantly reducing the cash reserve ratio to support economic growth amid moderate inflation [3][4]. Monetary Policy Changes - The RBI lowered the key repo rate to 5.5%, marking the third consecutive rate cut and a total reduction of 100 basis points since 2025 [3]. - The cash reserve ratio was reduced from 4% to 3%, releasing approximately ₹2.5 trillion (around $29.1 billion) in liquidity by the end of November 2025 [3][4]. Economic Context - India's economic growth slowed to 6.5% for the fiscal year ending in March, increasing pressure on policymakers to stimulate growth [4]. - The RBI's shift in monetary policy stance from "accommodative" to "neutral" reflects a response to the current economic environment and inflation trends [3][4]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - Consumer price inflation has remained below the RBI's target of 4% for the past three months, allowing the central bank to focus on boosting domestic demand [4]. - The RBI maintains its economic growth forecast for the new fiscal year at 6.5% but has lowered its inflation forecast from 4% to 3.7% [5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Indian bond market experienced volatility, with the 10-year benchmark government bond yield falling by 4 basis points to 6.21% [3]. - The Indian rupee depreciated by 0.1%, while the stock market recovered after an initial decline [3].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.74% to $3,406.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 5.76% to $34.93 per ounce. The increase was supported by heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions and geopolitical risks [6][34]. - International oil prices rose across the board, with the US crude oil main - contract rising 3.7% to $63.04 per barrel and Brent crude oil main - contract rising 3.63% to $65.06 per barrel. The increase was due to OPEC+’s lower - than - expected production increase and geopolitical concerns [6][37]. - London base metals mostly closed higher, with LME zinc rising 2.79% to $2,693.00 per ton and LME nickel rising 1.79% to $15,510.00 per ton. Future market volatility may continue [2][37]. 2. Macroeconomic Information - In May 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations [4]. - At the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 265.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.04% [7]. - In 2024, the national housing provident fund loans issued were 1.3 trillion yuan, and the housing provident fund deposit amount was 3631.783 billion yuan [7]. - The US factory activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in May, and the import index fell to a 16 - year low [8]. 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange resumed the designated glass delivery warehouse business of Hubei Yijun Yaoneng New Materials Co., Ltd. and added two new designated glass delivery warehouses [10]. - In May, the inventory days of domestic photovoltaic glass increased to over 30 days, an increase of more than 1 day compared with April [11]. - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month in July [14]. 4. Metal Futures - Last week, copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7,120 tons, while aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin inventories decreased, and nickel inventory increased [16]. - In April 2025, the total import and export volume of automobile commodities was $23.09 billion, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%. From January to April, the cumulative import and export volume was $81.88 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [16]. - Goldman Sachs raised its aluminum price forecast for the second half of 2025 to $2,280 per ton but lowered the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [16][37]. 5. Black - Series Futures - In May 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage floating value decreased by 31.2 yuan/ton compared with April, a decline of 2.39% [18]. - Mongolia's ER company's coking coal has had 16 consecutive auction failures [19]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 122,250 tons [22]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69% [23]. - Gabon will stop exporting manganese ore raw materials from 2029 [24]. 6. Agricultural Product Futures - As of the week of May 30, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 35.65 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 84.37 yuan/head [26]. - Muyuan Co., Ltd. decided not to sell commercial pigs to secondary fattening customers [27]. - It is expected that the soybean imports will be 12 million tons in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August [28]. - As of the week of May 27, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas and 23% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought [31]. - As of May 31, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.8% [31]. - As of the week of June 1, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 67%, and the planting rate was 84% [31]. - As of the week of May 29, the US soybean export inspection volume was 268,343 tons [31]. - At the end of March, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 213,000 tons compared with February, and the March production increased by 7% year - on - year [32]. 7. Financial Markets - Many institutions are avoiding 30 - year US Treasury bonds and choosing short - term bonds. US Treasury yields rose across the board, and the US junk - bond default rate in May hit a 15 - month high [38]. - European bond yields generally rose [39]. - The US dollar index fell 0.75% in late New York trading. Non - US currencies mostly rose. Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar will fall by about 9% by the middle of next year [42]. 8. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Australia's Q1 current account, China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, etc. [45]. - Events to occur include China's central bank's 830 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase expiring, the RBA's release of the June monetary policy meeting minutes, etc. [47]

Market Overview - The New York stock market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices closing higher on June 2, 2023, despite initial declines due to trade tensions and negative data [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 35.41 points to close at 42,305.48, an increase of 0.08%; the S&P 500 gained 24.25 points to finish at 5,935.94, up 0.41%; and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 128.85 points to close at 19,242.61, a rise of 0.67% [1] Sector Performance - Among the eleven sectors of the S&P 500, ten sectors saw gains while one sector declined. The Energy and Technology sectors led the gains with increases of 1.15% and 0.89%, respectively, while the Industrial sector fell by 0.24% [1] Economic Indicators - The final manufacturing index for May was reported at 52, slightly below the initial estimate of 52.3 but above April's 50.2 [2] - The Institute for Supply Management reported a manufacturing index of 48.5 for May, which was below the market expectation of 49.1 and April's 48.7 [2] - Construction spending in April decreased by 0.4% month-over-month, contrary to market expectations of a 0.4% increase, with March's figure revised from -0.5% to -0.8% [2] Company-Specific Movements - Cleveland-Cliffs, a steel company in Ohio, saw its stock price surge by 23.16% following the announcement of increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, while U.S. Steel Corporation's stock experienced a slight decline of 0.54% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that some European Central Bank (ECB) officials believe the interest rate cut in April effectively brought forward the anticipated rate cut originally scheduled for June [1][2][3] - The ECB's meeting minutes indicate that recent events have convinced officials that cutting rates now provides a safeguard against negative outcomes and avoids adding uncertainty during periods of market volatility [1][3] - The market currently estimates a 90% probability of a rate cut next month, with expectations for another cut later this year, bringing the ECB's deposit rate down to 1.75%, which aligns with the lower bound of the neutral interest rate range [1][3][4] Group 2 - ECB officials view eurozone inflation as "close to its end," although trade tensions may suppress prices in the short term [4][5] - The minutes from the meeting express increased confidence among committee members that inflation will return to target in the medium term, suggesting that deflationary forces may dominate in the short term [5] - Some decision-makers believe that tariffs could be a long-term source of inflation, with the potential for trade shocks to trigger inflation beyond the short term due to the disruptive effects on global value chains [5]