Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is operating steadily despite increased volatility and differentiation in the international financial market, with cross-border capital maintaining a net inflow, although the scale has decreased compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In January, the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus decreased by 20% compared to the previous month [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, fell by 28% compared to the previous month [1] - The foreign exchange market remains active with stable expectations, and cross-border capital flows are becoming more stable [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Seasonal factors influenced a rapid increase in enterprise receipts and settlements at the end of the year, but growth has recently slowed as demand is gradually released [1] - The net inflow of funds under the goods trade category decreased by 27% compared to the previous month, while the net outflow under the services trade category increased by 23% [1] - The net inflow of funds under the securities investment category remained stable [1]

Core Insights - In 2025, Hunan Province's cross-border RMB payment and receipt under current account and direct investment reached 192.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, accounting for 33.9% of the same-caliber cross-border payment and receipt in both foreign and domestic currencies [1] - The province's cross-border RMB payment and receipt with ASEAN, EU, and Africa grew by 18%, 74.9%, and 29.2% respectively [1] - Hunan added 1,338 new cross-border RMB settlement "first-hand accounts" in 2025, with enterprises completing 49,813 cross-border RMB facilitation transactions amounting to 92.66 billion yuan, significantly reducing operational costs for businesses [1] Financial Performance - In 2025, Hunan's total cross-border payment and receipt amounted to 91.57 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [1] - The total current account payment and receipt reached 75.11 billion USD, growing by 9% year-on-year, while the capital account payment and receipt totaled 16.46 billion USD, increasing by 23.8% [1] Sector Analysis - The cross-border payment and receipt in Hunan's manufacturing sector totaled 38.54 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [1] - The cross-border payment and receipt in the scientific research and technical service sector saw a significant increase, growing 1.7 times year-on-year, indicating an optimization in industry structure [1] Investment Trends - Hunan's outward direct investment capital outflow reached 94 million USD in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 35% [2] - Among the outward investment enterprises, 154 had total investments below 3 million USD, accounting for 72.6%, highlighting the rise of "small and beautiful" overseas investment firms that leverage flexibility and focus on niche markets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite a rebound in the US dollar index and pressure on non-US currencies, the Chinese yuan (RMB) has maintained a strong upward trend, supported by seasonal factors and stable demand for foreign exchange [1][2][6] - The RMB exchange rate has shown resilience, with the offshore RMB reaching a high of 6.9615 against the US dollar, marking a 0.12% increase since the end of the previous year, while the onshore RMB rose by 0.21% [2][6] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and other indices have reached new highs, indicating a strengthening of the RMB against major trading partner currencies and an improvement in its status within the international monetary system [3][4] Group 2 - The foreign exchange market in China has demonstrated significant resilience, with trading volume reaching a historical high of 42.6 trillion USD in 2025, and the corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio increasing to 30% [5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized the importance of maintaining the RMB's exchange rate flexibility and preventing excessive fluctuations, indicating a commitment to a stable foreign exchange market [6][7] - There are differing views on the future appreciation of the RMB, with some analysts predicting a gradual increase of 2-3% annually, while others suggest that the most aggressive appreciation phase may have passed, leading to a more volatile trading range [6][7]

人民日报海外版记者 李婕 与此同时，外汇管理服务实体经济质效明显提升。围绕支持外贸稳定发展、深化跨境投资和融资改 革、支持自贸试验区建设3项重点工作，先后出台3个"一揽子"政策共计28项措施。去年四季度这些政策 陆续落地实施以来，全国办理相关便利化业务超2200亿美元。 李斌介绍，国家外汇局扎实推进银行外汇展业改革，更好实现提高业务办理效率和防控风险，参与 改革的银行从2024年末16家扩大至目前的30家，已基本覆盖跨境业务主要经办银行。包括展业改革业务 在内，2025年全年凭企业指令"免审单"办理跨境收支业务2.3万亿美元，较2024年增长33%。此外，将跨 国公司本外币一体化资金池政策推广到全国，完善了境内企业境外上市资金管理，支持企业更加充分利 用国内国际两个市场。 2025年外汇市场交易量达到42.6万亿美元，企业外汇套期保值比率升至30%；2025年9月末，我国 对外资产和负债分别达到11.5万亿和7.5万亿美元……过去这一年，中国外汇市场创下一个个历史新高。 国家外汇管理局新闻发言人、副局长李斌近日在新闻发布会上表示，2025年，面对更加严峻复杂的 外部环境，外汇市场保持平稳运行。下一步，将深化拓 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - December saw a record high in both cross-border net inflow and net settlement scale, with the bank's foreign-related payment surplus reaching 801.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 400.2 billion CNY [14][17] - The arbitrage trading return rate declined significantly, influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar against the offshore RMB, which fell by 1.32% to 6.98 [14][17] - The cross-border funds' net inflow in December was the highest on record, driven by a substantial increase in merchandise trade surplus [17][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: December Cross-Border Net Inflow and Settlement - The bank's foreign-related payment surplus in December was 801.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 400.2 billion CNY, primarily due to a significant expansion in merchandise trade surplus [17] - The net settlement in December reached a historical high of 705.5 billion CNY, with a month-on-month increase of 589.1 billion CNY and a year-on-year increase of 780.6 billion CNY [31] Section 2: Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in RMB terms fell by 1.43 percentage points to -1.77% due to the marginal appreciation of the RMB [14][17] - The 10Y China-US interest rate spread widened by 15 basis points, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 16 basis points [14] Section 3: Cross-Border Funds and M2 Liquidity - Cross-border funds contributed significantly to M2 liquidity, with a total of 774.4 billion CNY added, reflecting an increase of 863.2 billion CNY month-on-month [55] - The cross-border funds' inflow had a pull rate of 0.10% on M2, indicating a continued upward trend [55]

来源：人民日报海外版 作者：李 婕 2025年外汇市场交易量达到42.6万亿美元，企业外汇套期保值比率升至30%；2025年9月末，我国对外 资产和负债分别达到11.5万亿和7.5万亿美元……过去这一年，中国外汇市场创下一个个历史新高。 国家外汇管理局新闻发言人、副局长李斌近日在新闻发布会上表示，2025年，面对更加严峻复杂的外部 环境，外汇市场保持平稳运行。下一步，将深化拓展外汇领域改革开放，努力营造既"放得活"又"管得 好"的外汇政策环境，为"十五五"开好局、起好步贡献力量。 服务实体经济质效提升 一组组数据，勾勒出2025年外汇市场运行情况。 2025年企业、个人等跨境收入和支出总计15.6万亿美元，较2024年增长近10%。跨境资金由年初的净流 出转为净流入，全年净流入3021亿美元，银行结售汇顺差1966亿美元。 与此同时，外汇管理服务实体经济质效明显提升。围绕支持外贸稳定发展、深化跨境投资和融资改革、 支持自贸试验区建设3项重点工作，先后出台3个"一揽子"政策共计28项措施。去年四季度这些政策陆续 落地实施以来，全国办理相关便利化业务超2200亿美元。 李斌介绍，国家外汇局扎实推进银行外汇展业改革 ...

央视网消息：国务院新闻办公室1月15日举行新闻发布会，国家外汇局有关负责人介绍，2025年，外汇市场供求基本平衡，预期总体平 稳，保持较强韧性和活力。 与此同时，2025年企业、个人等跨境收入和支出总计15.6万亿美元，较2024年增长近10%。跨境资金由年初的净流出转为净流入，全年净 流入3021亿美元，银行结售汇顺差1966亿美元。 李斌表示，2025年来华直接投资呈现净流入，境内主体对外投资较快增长。2025年9月末，我国对外资产和负债分别达到11.5万亿和7.5万 亿美元，均为历史新高。外汇储备保持稳定，年末余额为33579亿美元。人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 数据显示，2025年外汇市场交易量达到42.6万亿美元，企业外汇套期保值比率升至30%，均为历史新高。 国家外汇局新闻发言人、副局长 李斌：全年查处地下钱庄、通过虚假交易非法跨境转移资金等外汇违法违规案件1100多起，有效维护了 外汇交易秩序。 ...

1月15日，国家外汇管理局（以下简称"国家外汇局"）公布2025年12月份银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收 付款数据。数据显示，按美元计值，2025年12月份，银行结汇3180亿美元，售汇2179亿美元。2025年1 月份至12月份，银行累计结汇25949亿美元，累计售汇23983亿美元。 按美元计值，2025年12月份，银行代客涉外收入8244亿美元，对外付款7109亿美元。2025年1月份至12 月份，银行代客累计涉外收入79725亿美元，累计对外付款76704亿美元。 对于2025年我国外汇市场运行情况，国家外汇局新闻发言人、副局长李斌在1月15日国新办举行的新闻 发布会上表示，过去一年里，外汇市场供求基本平衡，预期总体平稳，保持较强韧性和活力。 据李斌介绍，2025年企业、个人等跨境收入和支出总计15.6万亿美元，较2024年增长近10%。跨境资金 由年初的净流出转为净流入，全年净流入3021亿美元，银行结售汇顺差1966亿美元。2025年12月份当月 跨境资金净流入和银行结售汇顺差扩大，与季节性等因素有关，从今年1月份以来的情况看，已有所收 敛。2025年来华直接投资呈现净流入，境内主体对外投资较快增长。 ...

Core Insights - By 2025, the foreign exchange market transaction volume is projected to reach $42.6 trillion, with corporate foreign exchange hedging ratios increasing to 30% [1] - As of September, China's foreign assets and liabilities have reached historical highs of $11.5 trillion and $7.5 trillion, respectively [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) emphasizes the importance of balancing domestic and international needs while enhancing the effectiveness of foreign exchange management to support the real economy [1] Foreign Exchange Management - SAFE has introduced a comprehensive package of 28 measures to support stable foreign trade development, deepen cross-border investment and financing reforms, and aid the construction of free trade pilot zones [3] - Since the implementation of these policies in the fourth quarter of last year, over $220 billion in related facilitation services have been processed nationwide [3] - The support for cross-border e-commerce has enabled over 10 billion online foreign exchange transactions, benefiting more than 1.8 million small and micro enterprises [3] - The number of banks participating in foreign exchange business reforms has expanded from 16 at the end of 2024 to 30, covering major banks involved in cross-border transactions [3] - In 2025, cross-border payment transactions under the "免审单" (exemption from review) policy are expected to reach $2.3 trillion, a 33% increase from 2024 [3] Foreign Exchange Market Overview - Total cross-border income and expenditure for enterprises and individuals is projected to reach $15.6 trillion in 2025, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from 2024 [4] - The net outflow of cross-border funds has reversed to a net inflow of $302.1 billion, with a bank settlement surplus of $196.6 billion [4] - Direct investment in China is showing a net inflow, while domestic entities are increasing their foreign investments [4] - The stability of foreign exchange reserves is maintained, with the RMB exchange rate remaining stable at a reasonable and balanced level [5] Future Outlook - SAFE plans to deepen and expand reforms in the foreign exchange sector, aiming to create a policy environment that is both flexible and well-regulated [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's direct investment has shown a net inflow since 2025, with significant growth in outbound investments by domestic entities [1][2] - In 2025, total cross-border income and expenditure reached $15.6 trillion, marking a nearly 10% increase compared to 2024 [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds for the year was $302.1 billion, with a bank settlement surplus of $196.6 billion [1] Group 2 - By the end of September 2025, China's foreign assets and liabilities reached historical highs of $11.5 trillion and $7.5 trillion, respectively [1] - The foreign exchange reserves remained stable, with a year-end balance of $3357.9 billion [1] - The Chinese yuan exchange rate maintained basic stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [1] Group 3 - The government plans to introduce policies for overseas lending and domestic foreign exchange loan management to better support Chinese enterprises in international expansion and foreign trade development [2] - There will be a nationwide implementation of cross-border fund management policies for multinational companies to enhance fund turnover efficiency and reduce financial costs for enterprises [2] - Support will be provided for the construction of international financial centers in Shanghai and Hong Kong, along with the optimization of foreign exchange management policies in high-level open platforms such as free trade zones and Hainan Free Trade Port [2]