文|功夫鱼 前 言 9月18日凌晨，美联储终于按下"降息键"，把利率从 4.25%~4.50% 下调到 4.00%~4.25%。听起来像是个 大新闻，但市场早已提前偷看"剧本"，人民币并没有上演过山车，而是淡定得像个"见过世面的老玩 家"。 当天人民币中间价报 7.1085，小幅下调 72 个基点；离岸人民币更是轻轻一跳，盘中又破了 7.10 关口。 看似风平浪静，背后其实是多重力量在较劲。 在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容。 王青宏观分析师表示美联储降息的节奏，让美元"掉线"，人民币顺势被动升值，明明作为券商首席经济 学家表示人民币8月那波猛涨，是"美元偏弱、中间价暗示、A股亮眼、外资流入"的四重合奏，连平产 业研究院院长表示未来人民币可能迎来恢复性升值，外资会看上中国的低估值优质资产，但别太兴奋中 国经济仍面临压力得谨慎。 人民币未来怎么走？ 外部环境美联储降息周期开启，全球流动性宽松，新兴市场普遍受益，人民币大方向稳中偏强。 人民币的年度剧情回放 今年人民币的表现，可以用一部"反转剧"来形容，年初从 7.3 的高位一路反弹，像刚重启的游戏号 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the stable operation of China's foreign exchange market in August 2025, with active trading and a basic balance in supply and demand [4] - In August 2025, banks settled 15,103 billion RMB and sold 14,058 billion RMB, while the cumulative settlement from January to August reached 113,938 billion RMB and cumulative sales were 113,078 billion RMB [1][2] - The non-bank sector's cross-border receipts and payments reached 1.3 trillion USD in August, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, indicating steady development in cross-border trade and investment activities [4] Group 2 - In August, banks recorded a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to 3.2 billion USD, with a surplus of 14.6 billion USD in bank settlement and sales [4] - The net inflow from goods trade remained stable, while foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds showed a net inflow, and service trade and investment income saw a decrease from seasonal highs [4]

国家外汇管理局9月19日公布的2025年8月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据显示，8月外汇市 场供求总体平衡，跨境资金净流入32亿美元，银行结售汇顺差146亿美元，市场预期稳定。据国家外汇 管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌透露，8月外资总体净买入境内股票和债券。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，8月美元指数下跌，非美元货币普遍回 升。在此背景下，8月银行结汇2118亿美元、售汇1971亿美元，延续顺差态势，反映我国企业、个人等 主体的交易行为总体理性有序。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 今年8月，外汇市场交易保持活跃，反映企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金流动情况的银行代客涉 外收支规模达1.3万亿美元，同比增长8%，继续保持高位水平。其中，经常项目和资本项目跨境收支均 有所增长，跨境贸易和投融资稳步发展。当月银行代客涉外收入6383亿美元、对外付款6 ...

● 本报记者彭扬 国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌表示，8月我国外汇市场平稳运行。一方面，外汇市场交易保 持活跃。8月，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收支1.3万亿美元，同比增长8%。其中，经常项目和资本 项目跨境收支均有所增长，跨境贸易和投融资稳步发展。另一方面，外汇市场供求总体平衡。8月，跨 境资金净流入32亿美元，银行结售汇顺差146亿美元。分项目看，货物贸易资金净流入保持稳定，外资 总体净买入境内股票和债券，服务贸易和投资收益资金净流出由季节性高位回落。 9月19日，国家外汇管理局公布数据显示，2025年8月，银行结汇15103亿元人民币，售汇14058亿元人民 币。1-8月，银行累计结汇113938亿元人民币，累计售汇113078亿元人民币。 8月，银行代客涉外收入45515亿元人民币，对外付款45284亿元人民币。1-8月，银行代客累计涉外收入 372219亿元人民币，累计对外付款363400亿元人民币。 "总的来看，当前我国外汇市场交易活跃，外汇供求基本平衡，市场预期保持稳定。"李斌说。 ...

重磅预告！下周一15点！潘功胜、吴清、李云泽、朱鹤新，出席！ 国家外汇管理局9月19日公布的2025年8月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据显示，8月外汇市场供求总体平衡， 跨境资金净流入32亿美元，银行结售汇顺差146亿美元，市场预期稳定。据国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌 介绍，8月外资总体净买入境内股票和债券。 受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，8月美元指数下跌，非美元货币普遍回升。在此背景下，8月银 行结汇2118亿美元，售汇1971亿美元，延续顺差态势，反映我国企业、个人等主体的交易行为总体理性有序。 今年8月，外汇市场交易保持活跃，反映企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金流动情况的银行代客涉外收支规模达1.3万亿美 元，同比增长8%，继续保持高位水平。其中，经常项目和资本项目跨境收支均有所增长，跨境贸易和投融资稳步发展。 当月银行代客涉外收入6383亿美元，对外付款6350亿美元，实现小幅顺差，收支基本平衡。 从跨境资金流动主要渠道看，8月货物贸易资金净流入保持稳定，外资总体净买入境内股票和债券，服务贸易和投资收益 资金净流出由季节性高位回落。"总的来看，当前我国外汇市场交易活跃，外 ...

国家外汇管理局9月19日公布的2025年8月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据显示，8月外汇市场供 求总体平衡，跨境资金净流入32亿美元，银行结售汇顺差146亿美元，市场预期稳定。据国家外汇管理 局副局长、新闻发言人李斌介绍，8月外资总体净买入境内股票和债券。 受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，8月美元指数下跌，非美元货币普遍回升。在 此背景下，8月银行结汇2118亿美元，售汇1971亿美元，延续顺差态势，反映我国企业、个人等主体的 交易行为总体理性有序。 今年8月，外汇市场交易保持活跃，反映企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金流动情况的银行代客涉外收 支规模达1.3万亿美元，同比增长8%，继续保持高位水平。其中，经常项目和资本项目跨境收支均有所 增长，跨境贸易和投融资稳步发展。当月银行代客涉外收入6383亿美元，对外付款6350亿美元，实现小 幅顺差，收支基本平衡。 从跨境资金流动主要渠道看，8月货物贸易资金净流入保持稳定，外资总体净买入境内股票和债券，服 务贸易和投资收益资金净流出由季节性高位回落。"总的来看，当前我国外汇市场交易活跃，外汇供求 基本平衡，市场预期保持稳定。"李斌总结称。 （文章 ...

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China showed overall balance in supply and demand in August 2025, with a net inflow of $3.2 billion and a surplus of $14.6 billion in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange [1] - In August, the bank's foreign exchange settlement amounted to $211.8 billion, while foreign exchange sales reached $197.1 billion, continuing the surplus trend [1] - The scale of bank customer foreign exchange receipts and payments reached $1.3 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, indicating sustained high levels of cross-border capital flow [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds from merchandise trade remained stable, and foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds increased [1] - In August, bank customer foreign exchange income was $638.3 billion, while payments were $635 billion, achieving a slight surplus and maintaining a basic balance in receipts and payments [1] - The current foreign exchange market in China is active, with stable market expectations and balanced supply and demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is currently stable, with a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to 3.2 billion USD and a surplus of 14.6 billion USD in bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange in August 2025, indicating a balanced supply and demand in the market [1] Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In August, the foreign exchange market maintained overall balance, with a net inflow of cross-border funds of 3.2 billion USD and a bank settlement surplus of 14.6 billion USD, reflecting stable market expectations [1] - The bank's foreign exchange settlement reached 211.8 billion USD, while sales amounted to 197.1 billion USD, continuing the surplus trend [1] Cross-Border Fund Flows - The scale of bank customer foreign exchange receipts and payments reached 1.3 trillion USD in August, a year-on-year increase of 8%, indicating sustained high levels of activity [1] - Both current and capital account cross-border receipts and payments saw growth, with stable development in cross-border trade and investment financing [1] Specific Transactions - In August, bank customer foreign exchange income was 638.3 billion USD, while payments were 635 billion USD, resulting in a slight surplus and a balanced overall account [1] - The net inflow from goods trade remained stable, while foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds showed a net buying trend [1]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China remained stable in August 2025, with active trading and balanced supply and demand [1][2] Group 1: Market Activity - In August 2025, non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, conducted cross-border receipts and payments totaling $1.3 trillion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - Both current account and capital account cross-border receipts and payments saw growth, indicating steady development in cross-border trade and investment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - In August 2025, there was a net inflow of $3.2 billion in cross-border funds, with a surplus of $14.6 billion in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales [1] - The net inflow from goods trade remained stable, while foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds showed a net buying trend [1] Group 3: Bank Transactions - In August 2025, banks settled foreign exchange receipts amounting to 15,103 billion RMB and foreign exchange sales of 14,058 billion RMB [1] - From January to August 2025, cumulative bank foreign exchange receipts reached 113,938 billion RMB, while cumulative sales were 113,078 billion RMB [1] Group 4: Customer Transactions - In August 2025, banks recorded foreign-related income of 45,515 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,284 billion RMB [2] - For the period from January to August 2025, cumulative foreign-related income was 372,219 billion RMB, with cumulative payments at 363,400 billion RMB [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the foreign exchange market and its dynamics, focusing on the impact of various factors on currency fluctuations, particularly the US dollar and the Chinese yuan. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Factors Influencing Exchange Rates** Exchange rate fluctuations are influenced by multiple cross-border capital flow factors, including trade in goods and services, and investment behaviors. A single theory cannot fully explain these changes, necessitating a combination of short-term technical analysis, mid-term macro frameworks, and long-term valuation models [1][3][4]. 2. **Short-term Analysis of the US Dollar** In the short term, technical indicators are crucial. The US dollar has broken below its three-year trading range, indicating a bearish trend with limited rebound potential. Weekly momentum indices can help identify short-term overbought or oversold conditions [1][5][7]. 3. **Mid to Long-term Dollar Valuation** The dollar should be viewed as having dual attributes of assets and liabilities. Its value is influenced by the relative strength of the US economy, financial sentiment, and conditions. Long-term valuation models analyze the relative prices of goods, services, and assets between countries [1][6][12]. 4. **Impact of Market Liquidity on Exchange Rates** Market liquidity significantly affects exchange rates. A tight liquidity environment can lead to a rebound in the dollar. The SOFA 99 minus SOFA metric is used to gauge liquidity conditions [1][9]. 5. **Geopolitical and External Factors** Geopolitical situations, supply chain issues, and tariff policies can influence market trading themes and, consequently, exchange rates. For instance, easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict benefited the euro [1][11]. 6. **Chinese Yuan Dynamics** The Chinese yuan's exchange rate is affected by trading themes, market signals, and central bank policies. The yuan's valuation is influenced by cross-border capital flows, with a current account surplus but a capital account deficit [2][17][24]. 7. **Seasonal Behavior of the Yuan** Seasonal factors significantly impact the yuan's exchange rate, with summer months typically seeing depreciation due to increased foreign currency purchases for dividends, while autumn and winter often see appreciation as exporters convert foreign earnings [20]. 8. **Interest Rate Differentials** Interest rate differentials play a crucial role in forex trading, with potential narrowing of the US-China interest rate gap positively impacting the yuan [18][19][26]. 9. **Effective Exchange Rate of the Yuan** The effective exchange rate of the yuan reflects its value against a basket of currencies. Despite appreciation against the dollar, the yuan has depreciated against other currencies, indicating a downward trend in its effective exchange rate [27]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The relationship between exchange rates and risk currencies (like GBP, AUD) versus safe-haven currencies (like JPY, CHF) is highlighted, noting that market risk appetite can shift these dynamics [1][8]. - The importance of monitoring external risk events, such as US monetary policy changes and geopolitical developments, is emphasized as they can significantly impact currency valuations [21][22]. - The discussion includes the potential for the dollar to remain overvalued, which could necessitate adjustments in exchange rates to restore competitiveness for US goods and services [15]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the complexities of the foreign exchange market, emphasizing the interplay of various economic, geopolitical, and technical factors that influence currency valuations.