Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In September, the Fed initiated its first rate cut of the year, the US dollar index fluctuated, onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates showed mixed trends, and the "three - price" unification trend intensified with stable market expectations [2] - The recent RMB appreciation has increased the negative impact on export enterprises' financial conditions, but China's foreign trade growth remains resilient [2] - Cross - border capital flows continued to be balanced in September, shifting from a small net inflow to a small net outflow, with securities investment being the main contributor [2] - The enhanced willingness to settle foreign exchange led to a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales for the seventh consecutive month in September, and the surplus reached a record high [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fed's Rate Cut and RMB Exchange Rate - In September, the Fed started its first rate cut of the year due to increased employment downside risks in the US. The US dollar index first declined and then rebounded, and the RMB exchange rate appreciation slowed down [3] - The RMB central parity rate fluctuated slightly in a narrow range; the onshore and offshore spot exchange rates first rose and then fell. The "three - price" unification trend of the RMB exchange rate intensified, and market expectations were basically stable [4] - The RMB's nominal and real effective exchange rate indices continued to rise, but China's goods export volume still increased year - on - year, indicating that exchange rate changes are not the main factor for China's foreign trade resilience [6] Cross - border Capital Flows - Cross - border capital flows continued to be balanced in September, shifting from a small net inflow to a small net outflow. Securities investment was the main contributor [2] - Foreign investors slowed down their reduction of RMB bonds, and the balance of their RMB stocks continued to increase, but different types of foreign capital flow data showed differentiation, indicating a cautious and optimistic attitude towards participating in the A - share market [2] Bank Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - The willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, driving the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales to have a continuous surplus for the seventh consecutive month in September, and the surplus reached a record high [2] - The change in the domestic foreign exchange supply - demand relationship since March was mainly due to the weakening of market participants' motivation to purchase foreign exchange [2] - In the future, if the exchange rate expectation turns to the appreciation direction, it may trigger a concentrated release of foreign exchange settlement demand [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the foreign exchange settlement surplus in September, reaching $51.1 billion, the highest since January 2021 [3][4]. - The total surplus for the first nine months of the year is $63.2 billion, indicating that September alone contributed a substantial portion to this figure [3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Settlement Data - The September foreign exchange settlement data shows a surplus, indicating that the inflow of foreign currency into banks exceeded the outflow [7]. - The increase in surplus can be attributed to two main factors: foreign capital flowing into the Chinese market and domestic entities converting foreign currency into RMB due to expectations of RMB appreciation [8][10]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The decline in the willingness to hold USD is linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which suggest a long-term weakening of the dollar [9]. - In contrast, the RMB is expected to appreciate over the next year, prompting investors to prefer holding RMB over USD [10]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has led investors to seek higher returns in domestic equities rather than keeping funds in USD-denominated accounts [10]. Group 3: Implications for Capital Markets - Historical patterns indicate that when domestic markets perform well or when there is an expectation of RMB appreciation, there is a tendency for increased holding of RMB, leading to favorable settlement data [12]. - The September surplus of $51.1 billion signals growing confidence in RMB assets from both domestic and foreign investors [12][14]. - The overall net inflow of cross-border capital for the first three quarters of the year reached $119.7 billion, further demonstrating the attractiveness of the Chinese market to international funds [13][14]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The influx of capital into the A-share market suggests a potential long-term bullish trend for the market [15][16]. - The article implies that the current liquidity situation in the A-share market has improved, making it more appealing to both domestic and foreign investors [15].

Core Insights - In September, the non-bank sector's cross-border receipts and payments totaled $1.37 trillion, a month-on-month increase of 7% [1] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's foreign-related receipts and payments reached $11.6 trillion, marking a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [1] - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience and vitality, maintaining a stable operation despite complex external pressures [1] Cross-Border Transactions - The net inflow of cross-border funds was $119.7 billion in the first three quarters [1] - The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was $63.2 billion, outperforming the same period in 2024 [1] - The capital account showed a net outflow, primarily influenced by domestic entities' foreign investment activities [1] Trade and Investment - China's foreign trade continues to grow steadily, with high net inflows under goods trade [1] - The cross-border capital flows related to service trade and investment income remained relatively stable [1] - The overall foreign exchange supply and demand is basically balanced, reflecting strong market expectations [1]

Core Insights - The cross-border capital flow in Hainan Free Trade Port has maintained a growth momentum in the first three quarters of this year, enhancing the level of cross-border trade and investment liberalization and facilitation [1] Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow - In the first three quarters, the cross-border payment and receipt scale in Hainan reached 804.6 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [1] - The total amount of foreign exchange settlement and sales was 179.8 billion USD, up 10.4% year-on-year; among which, the settlement scale was 46.3 billion USD, increasing by 22.5%, while the purchase scale was 133.5 billion USD, growing by 2.4% [1] Group 2: Trade Structure Characteristics - The scale of goods trade receipts and payments in Hainan was 352.8 billion USD, with a notable increase in bonded trade, which reached 45.9 billion USD, a growth of 5.4% [2] - The payment for imported duty-free goods grew rapidly, amounting to 21.4 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [2] Group 3: Service Trade Growth - The cross-border receipts and payments for service trade in Hainan totaled 50.4 billion USD, marking an 8.1% year-on-year growth [2] - Transportation services saw a revenue scale of 25.1 billion USD, increasing by 11.3%, while telecommunications and computer services grew significantly by 67.2% to 3.2 billion USD [2] - Cross-border travel services also experienced rapid growth, with receipts of 4.4 billion USD, up 25.7% [2] Group 4: Direct Investment Scale - The direct investment receipts and payments in Hainan reached 367.1 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - Outward direct investment grew significantly, amounting to 37.6 billion USD, a rise of 23.1%, while inward direct investment surged to 66.6 billion USD, increasing by 28.5% [2]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China showed a surplus in September, with a total settlement of 18,809 billion RMB and a sale of 15,183 billion RMB, resulting in a surplus of 3,626 billion RMB, which has expanded compared to the previous month [1] - The total foreign exchange surplus for September was reported at 51 billion USD, with a notable increase in both customer settlements and sales [1][3] - The overall scale of foreign exchange receipts and payments by banks for the first nine months of 2025 reached 11.6 trillion USD, marking a historical high for the same period [3] Foreign Exchange Data - In September 2025, banks settled 2,647 billion USD and sold 2,136 billion USD, with cumulative settlements from January to September reaching 1,853.3 billion USD and sales at 1,790.1 billion USD [2] - For the same month, banks recorded foreign income of 48,409 billion RMB and payments of 48,629 billion RMB, with cumulative figures for the first nine months at 420,628 billion RMB in income and 412,029 billion RMB in payments [2] Market Trends - The foreign exchange market is characterized by balanced supply and demand, with a significant increase in customer settlements and sales in September [3] - The cross-border capital flow remains active, with a total of 1.37 trillion USD in cross-border income and expenditure in September, reflecting a 7% month-on-month growth [3] - The trade surplus for September was reported at 645.47 billion RMB, with exports and imports showing year-on-year growth of 8.4% and 7.5%, respectively [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the upcoming peak period for corporate financial settlements and profit distributions may lead to an increase in bank customer settlements, potentially supporting the appreciation of the RMB [4] - The transition of China's economy from external demand to internal demand may lead to a decrease in the contribution of trade surpluses to settlement and sales [5] - The complexity of factors influencing customer settlement and sales data indicates that these figures should not be directly equated with cross-border capital flows or RMB exchange rate changes [4][5]

央视网消息：国家外汇管理局10月22日发布数据显示，9月跨境资金流动保持活跃、均衡态势，外汇市场供求较为平衡。 今年前三季度我国涉外收支总规模为11.6万亿美元，创历史同期新高。跨境资金净流入1197亿美元，银行结售汇顺差632亿美 元，均高于上年同期水平。 9月，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出合计为1.37万亿美元，环比增长7%。经常项下和资本项下跨境收支均保持增长 态势，显示我国涉外经济稳健发展。受十一假期对跨境收付的季节性影响，9月跨境资金小幅净流出31亿美元，10月以来已转为净 流入。 ...

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China showed stable operation in September 2025, characterized by active and balanced cross-border capital flows and a relatively balanced supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [1][2] Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In September, the total cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached 1.37 trillion USD, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7% [1] - Both current and capital account cross-border receipts and payments continued to grow, indicating robust development in China's foreign-related economy [1] - There was a slight net outflow of 3.1 billion USD in September due to seasonal effects from the "National Day" holiday, but this trend reversed to net inflow in October [1] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand - In September, the bank's customer settlement and sales of foreign exchange both saw significant month-on-month growth, with a settlement surplus of 51 billion USD [1] - The net settlement was higher in the first half of September, while the latter half showed a trend towards balance in settlement differences [1] - Since October, the bank's customer settlement and sales have been roughly equal, indicating a basic balance in the foreign exchange market supply and demand [1] Group 3: Overall Foreign Exchange Performance - For the first three quarters of the year, China's total foreign-related receipts and payments reached 11.6 trillion USD, setting a historical record for the same period [2] - There was a net inflow of 119.7 billion USD in cross-border capital, and a settlement surplus of 63.2 billion USD, both exceeding levels from the previous year [2] - Overall, despite a complex external environment, China's foreign exchange market has shown resilience and vitality, with stable market expectations and balanced supply and demand [2]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that cross-border capital flows remained active and balanced in September, with a total of $1.37 trillion in cross-border income and expenditure, reflecting a 7% month-on-month increase [1][3] - The overall scale of foreign-related receipts and payments in the first three quarters of this year reached a record high of $11.6 trillion, with a net inflow of $119.7 billion and a bank settlement surplus of $63.2 billion, both exceeding the levels of the previous year [3] Group 1 - In September, there was a slight net outflow of $3.1 billion in cross-border funds due to seasonal effects from the National Day holiday, but this has shifted to a net inflow since October [3] - Both current and capital account cross-border receipts and payments continued to grow, indicating robust development in China's foreign-related economy [1][3]

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange receipts reached a record high of $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters, with a slight net outflow of $3.1 billion in September, which turned into a net inflow in October [1][5]. Market Developments - Indonesia plans to issue offshore RMB-denominated sovereign bonds for the first time, with maturities of 5 and 10 years, marking its entry into the dim sum bond market [2]. - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 22 days due to unresolved issues regarding medical subsidies, with potential continuation into November [2]. - Japan's Prime Minister has ordered a new round of economic measures, potentially exceeding last year's ¥13.9 trillion, aimed at alleviating inflationary pressures on households and businesses [5]. - The global physical gold ETFs saw the largest monthly inflow ever in September, with total inflows for the third quarter reaching a record $26 billion, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion [5]. - Japan's exports in September grew by 4.2% year-on-year, marking the first expansion in five months, although exports to the U.S. decreased by 13.3% [6]. - The U.S. federal debt surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, increasing by $1 trillion in just over two months [5]. Financial Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.71%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also experienced declines of 0.53% and 0.93%, respectively [8]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.18% to $4,116.60 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce [9]. - Crude oil prices saw significant increases, with U.S. oil rising by 3.74% to $59.38 per barrel and Brent crude up by 4.94% to $64.35 per barrel [10].

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that China's foreign exchange receipts and payments reached a record high of $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters of this year [1] - There was a net inflow of $119.7 billion in cross-border funds, with a surplus of $63.2 billion in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange, both exceeding last year's levels [1] - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience and vitality, with stable market expectations and a basic balance of supply and demand [1] Group 1: Cross-Border Fund Flows - The total scale of foreign exchange receipts and payments has steadily increased, indicating active cross-border trade activities [1] - In September, the total cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors reached $1.37 trillion, a month-on-month increase of 7% [1] - In September, there was a slight deficit of $3.1 billion in cross-border payments, influenced by seasonal factors from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Trends - The net inflow of funds from goods trade remains high, while service trade and investment income flows are relatively stable [2] - Foreign investors contributed nearly $45 billion to emerging market stocks and bonds in August, with approximately $39 billion flowing into the Chinese market [2] - In September, banks settled $26.47 billion in foreign exchange and sold $21.36 billion, indicating a flexible approach by enterprises in foreign exchange transactions [2]