采购经理指数(PMI)

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【宏观经济】一周要闻回顾(2025年5月28日-6月3日)
乘联分会· 2025-06-04 08:38
点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2461 字,阅读全文约 8 分钟 2025年1—4月份全国规模以上工业企业利润增长1.4% 2025年5月中国采购经理指数运行情况 2025年1—4月份全国规模以上工业企业利润增长1.4% 1—4月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元,同比增长1.4%(按可比口径计算)。 1—4月份,规模以上工业企业中,国有控股企业实现利润总额7022.8亿元,同比下降4.4%;股份制企业实 现利润总额15596.4亿元,增长1.1%;外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额5429.2亿元,增长2.5%;私营企业 实现利润总额5706.8亿元,增长4.3%。 1—4月份,采矿业实现利润总额2875.0亿元,同比下降26.8%;制造业实现利润总额15549.3亿元,增长 8.6%;电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额2745.8亿元,增长4.4%。 1—4月份,主要行业利润情况如下:农副食品加工业利润同比增长45.6%,有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增 长24.5%,电气机械和器材制造业增长15.4%,专用设备制造业增长13.2%,通用设备制造业增长11.7%,计算 ...
5月PMI点评:短期进出口情况有所改善
Orient Securities· 2025-06-04 03:19
Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, slightly up from 49% in April[5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, down from 50.4%[5] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.4% from 50.2%[5] Group 2: Sector Performance - In May, the production and new orders PMI were 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively, indicating improvements[5] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showed PMIs of 50.9% and 51.2%, both in the expansion zone[5] - The raw materials sector PMI was at 47%, indicating insufficient production and demand[5] Group 3: Export and Import Trends - New export orders PMI rose to 47.5% from 44.7%, signaling a key demand recovery[5] - Import PMI also increased to 47.1% from 43.4%, reflecting a significant rebound[5] - Despite improvements, external trade orders are expected to have limited long-term impact due to high tariffs[5] Group 4: Business Size Impact - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, while medium and small enterprises recorded 47.5% and 49.3%, respectively[5] - Large enterprises were crucial for the PMI rebound, with their production and demand indices returning above the neutral line[5] Group 5: Price Stability and Service Sector - The factory price and major raw material purchase price PMIs were 44.7% and 46.9%, indicating price stability[5] - The service sector showed slight recovery with business activity and new orders indices at 50.2% and 46.6%[5]
标普全球香港5月PMI升至49 但连续4个月跌入紧缩区间
智通财经网· 2025-06-04 01:48
Group 1 - The Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 48.3 in April to 49 in May, indicating the smallest contraction in the business environment in three months, but it has remained in the contraction zone for four consecutive months [1] - Businesses in Hong Kong continued to reduce operating activities for the second consecutive month in May, with the reduction level remaining consistent with April [1] - The manufacturing sector experienced the most significant decline among the four major industry sectors, while the drop in new orders showed a slight monthly improvement [1] Group 2 - Employers in Hong Kong's private sector increased hiring in May, marking the first employment growth in four months and the most significant increase since May of the previous year, primarily driven by the manufacturing and construction sectors [1] - Companies further reduced their purchases of inputs in May, with a moderate decline in procurement quantities and a significant drop in inventory levels, reflecting a more cautious inventory strategy among businesses [1] - Despite a slight easing of pessimism regarding future business prospects in May compared to April, sentiment remains historically high, influenced by uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and weak domestic demand [2]
2025年5月中国采购经理指数运行情况
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-05-31 01:30
国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 5月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.5%,比上月上升0.5个百分点,制造业景气水平改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.0%,比上月下降0.2个百分点,位于临界点,表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间与上月基本持平。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数(经季节调整) 单位:% 从企业规模看,大型企业PMI为50.7%,比上月上升1.5个百分点,高于临界点;中型企业PMI为47.5%,比上月下降1.3个百分点,低于临界点;小型企业PMI 为49.3%,比上月上升0.6个百分点,低于临界点。 从分类指数看,在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中,生产指数高于临界点,供应商配送时间指数位于临界点,新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指 数均低于临界点。 生产指数为50.7%,比上月上升0.9个百分点,升至临界点以上,表明制造业企业生产活动有所加快。 新订单指数为49.8%,比上月上升0.6个百分点,表明制造业市场需求景气度回升。 原材料库存指数为47.4%,比上月上升0.4个百分点,低于临界点,表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅有所收窄。 从业 ...
【环球财经】5月Judo Bank速览澳大利亚综合PMI小幅下降
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 06:23
Core Insights - The S&P Global Flash Australia PMI Composite Output Index decreased from 51 in April to 50.6 in May 2025, indicating a slowdown in the growth of Australia's private sector business activity [1][2] - Despite a recovery in exports, the overall growth rate of new business also declined, reflecting a mixed outlook for the private economy [1] - Business confidence among private enterprises weakened in May, although hiring continued at a steady pace, suggesting a cautious but optimistic short-term outlook [1] Summary by Category Economic Activity - The private sector in Australia continued to grow in May, but the pace of growth slowed due to a decline in both manufacturing output and service sector activity [1] - The manufacturing PMI output index fell from 51 in April to 50.6 in May, while the services PMI activity index dropped from 51 to 50.5, marking a six-month low [2] Business Confidence - Business confidence in the private sector showed signs of weakening, yet companies maintained a steady hiring pace, indicating a level of optimism about short-term prospects [1] - The report suggests that the upcoming Australian elections may have contributed to the slowdown in new order growth, with expectations for a rebound in the coming months [1]
集运日报:船司发布涨价函,美线出现抢运潮,部分合约再次涨停,符合日报预期,建议冲高止盈-20250515
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 06:43
2.市场具有不确定性、过往策略观点的吻合并不保证当前策略观点的正确。公司及其他研究员可能发表与本策略观点不同甚至相反的意见。报告所载资料、意见及推测仪 映研究人员于发出本报告当日的判断,可随时更改目无需另行通告。 3.在法律范围内,公司或关联机构可能会就涉及的品种进行交易,或可能为其他公司交易提供服务。 4.本报告版权仅为浙江新世纪期货有限公司所有。未经事先书面许可,任何财的和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、转载和月用,否则由此造成的一切不良后果及法 律责任由私自翻版、复制、刊登、转载和引用者承担。 圳 | | 2025年5月15日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 船司发布涨价函,美线出现抢运潮,部分合约再次涨停,符合日报预期,建议冲高止盈 | | | | | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | 5月12日 | | 5月9日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线)1302.62点,较上期下跌5.5% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数)952.32点,较上期上涨2.37% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(美 ...
生产需求均回落 4月制造业PMI降至49%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-05 14:12
Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].
【环球财经】2025年4月澳大利亚制造业PMI降至51.7点
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-01 03:11
当月,企业乐观情绪降至6个月来的最低水平,并且进一步低于长期平均水平。受访企业普遍希望在未 来12个月,宏观经济状况的改善、新产品的推出和营销促销活动能够推动其销售增长,但其对贸易不确 定性带来负面影响的担忧有所加剧。出现这种情况的原因是,4月澳制造业需求的改善仅限于国内市 场,其出口订单再次下降。价格方面,当月,制造业企业以两年多来最大的幅度上调销售价格,借此将 其不断上升的成本负担转嫁给客户。 标普全球澳大利亚制造业PMI是根据产出指标、新增订单指标、用工指标、供应商交货时间指标和采购 库存指标计算得出的加权平均值。该指数高于50点枯荣线说明澳大利亚制造业正在扩张,低于50点则显 示该国制造业萎缩。 最新发布的报告指出,4月澳大利亚制造业的新增订单以2022年11月以来最快的速度增长,同时也推动 工厂产出进一步增加。采购活动和库存水平在4月同步上升,而积压工作量出现了自2022年11月以来首 次增加。 新华财经悉尼5月1日电(记者李晓渝)金融分析公司标普全球(S&P Global)公布的最新数据报告显 示,2025年4月标普全球澳大利亚制造业采购经理指数(S&P Global Australia Manu ...
降准降息或适度提前
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 07:57
4月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)再次回到临界点以下。 4月30日,国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据显示,4月份,制造业采购经理 指数为49.0%,比上月下降1.5个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.4%和 50.2%,继续保持在扩张区间。 高技术制造业延续较好发展态势 制造业采购经理指数是重要的经济先行指标。 所谓采购经理指数,是通过对企业采购经理的月度调查结果统计汇总、编制而成的指数,它涵盖了企业采 购、生产、流通等各个环节,包括制造业和非制造业领域,是国际上通用的监测宏观经济走势的先行性指 数之一,具有较强的预测、预警作用,其变化往往预示着经济的拐点。PMI数值高于50%通常表示经济扩 张,而低于50%则通常意味着经济收缩。 4月份制造业PMI为49.0%,回落至临界点以下,且比上月下降1.5个百分点。 对此,国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河指出,是"受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加 外部环境急剧变化等因素影响"。 今年一季度,我国GDP同比增长5.4%,不仅高于去年全国5%的增速,也高于去年一季度5.3%的增速,在 全球主要经济体中名列前 ...
国家统计局:4月制造业PMI为49.0%
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-04-30 01:35
一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 4月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%,比上月下降1.5个百分点,制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看,大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%,比上月下降2.0、1.1和0.9个百分点,均低于临界点。 从分类指数看,在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中,供应商配送时间指数高于临界点,生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临 界点。 生产指数为49.8%,比上月下降2.8个百分点,表明制造业企业生产略有放缓。 新订单指数为49.2%,比上月下降2.6个百分点,表明制造业市场需求有所回落。 原材料库存指数为47.0%,比上月下降0.2个百分点,表明制造业主要原材料库存量较上月下降。 从业人员指数为47.9%,比上月下降0.3个百分点,表明制造业企业用工景气度有所回落。 供应商配送时间指数为50.2%,比上月下降0.1个百分点,仍高于临界点,表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间继续加快。 二、中国非制造业采购经理指数运行情况 4月份,非制造业商务活动指数为50.4%,比上月下降0.4个百分点,仍高于临界点,非制造业继续保持扩张。 分行 ...