来源：统计微讯 国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 10 月份，制造业采购经理指数（ PMI ）为 49.0% ，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，制造业 景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业 PMI 分别为 49.9% 、 48.7% 和 47.1% ，比上月下 降 1.1 个、 0.1 个和 1.1 个百分点，均低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数位于临界 点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点。 生产指数为 49.7% ，比上月下降 2.2 个百分点，表明制造业生产有所放缓。 新订单指数为 48.8% ，比上月下降 0.9 个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。 10 月份，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1% ，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点，升至扩张区 间。 原材料库存指数为 47.3% ，比上月下降 1.2 个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量继 续减少。 从业人员指数为 48.3% ，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度小幅回 落。 供应商配送 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会10月31日发布2025年10月中国采购经理指数运行情况。 数据显示，10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.9%、48.7%和47.1%，比上月下降1.1个、0.1个 和1.1个百分点，均低于临界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数位于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点。 生产指数为 49.7%，比上月下降2.2个百分点，表明制造业生产有所放缓。新订单指数为48.8%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。原材料库存指数为47.3%，比上月下降1.2个百分点，表明制造业主要 原材料库存量继续减少。从业人员指数为48.3%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度小幅回落。供应商配送时间指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商 交货时间与上月基本持平。 2025年10月PMI数据 发布日期 2025/10/31 10月份， ...

2025年10月中国采购经理指数运行情况 国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 智通财经APP获悉，10月31日，国家统计局公布2025年10月中国采购经理指数运行情况。10月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百 分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.9%、48.7%和47.1%，比上月下降1.1个、0.1个和1.1个百分点，均低于临 界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数位于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均 低于临界点。 原文如下： 10月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.9%、48.7%和47.1%，比上月下降1.1个、0.1个和1.1个百分点，均低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数位于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临 界点。 生产指数为4 ...

（三）三大重点行业保持扩张。高技术制造业、装备制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为50.5%、50.2%和 50.1%，继续位于扩张区间，且明显高于制造业总体水平，行业支撑作用持续显现。高耗能行业PMI为 47.3%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 10月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%，比 上月上升0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，我国经济总体产出保持总 体稳定。 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 10月份，受"十一"假期前部分需求提前释放及国际环境更趋复杂等因素影响，制造业生产活动较上月放 缓，PMI降至49.0%。 （一）供需两端有所放缓。生产指数和新订单指数分别为49.7%和48.8%，比上月下降2.2个和0.9个百分 点，制造业企业生产和市场需求均有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备 等行业生产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上，产需两端较为活跃；纺织服装服饰、化学纤维及橡 胶塑料制品、非金属矿物制品等行业两个指数均低于临界点，行业供需偏弱。 （二）大型企业产需指数 ...

Core Insights - The September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China indicates a slight improvement in economic output, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a continuous recovery, with a production index of 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, reaching a six-month high, and a new orders index of 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - Factors contributing to the recovery include seasonal improvements, the implementation of consumer loan subsidies, and a more active domestic capital market, which has boosted market confidence [2][3] - The prices of major raw materials have decreased, with purchasing prices down 0.1 percentage points to 53.2% and factory prices down 0.9 percentage points to 48.2% [3] - Key manufacturing sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods are expanding, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.0%, with the service sector index at 50.1%, both indicating a decline [4][5] - The drop in service sector activity is attributed to the seasonal effects post-summer and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which has delayed consumer activities [4][5] - Despite the overall decline, sectors such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services remain in a high-growth zone with indices above 60.0% [5] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index is at 49.3%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold [6] - The construction activity is weak, particularly in civil engineering and housing, indicating a need for improved project coordination and funding [6] - Recent data shows a 9.0% month-on-month increase in housing transactions in 30 major cities, and a 14.4% increase in land transactions, reflecting typical seasonal patterns [6]

Group 1 - The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI decreased from 53 to 51.4 in September 2025, indicating a continued but weak expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month [1][2] - Domestic new orders in the Australian manufacturing sector slightly declined due to a weakening domestic market, while new export orders also fell, primarily impacted by U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - Manufacturing output growth slowed in September, but employment in the sector increased for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a positive trend in job creation despite the slowdown in production [2][3] Group 2 - Supply conditions in the Australian manufacturing sector worsened in September, with extended delivery times due to supply shortages, shipping delays, and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - Input cost inflation reached a five-month high, driven by rising raw material and fuel prices, leading manufacturers to increase product prices, although both input and selling price increases remained below historical averages [2][3] - Despite the challenges, manufacturers maintained an optimistic outlook for future sales and output growth, although business confidence dropped to a three-month low due to concerns over the negative impact of trade tariff policies [2][3]

Group 1 - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] - The Production Index for manufacturing reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, suggesting active manufacturing production [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods showed PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average, indicating robust supply and demand [1] Group 2 - The Production and Business Activity Expectation Index for manufacturing was 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting positive market outlook among manufacturers [2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating stability in the non-manufacturing sector, while the Service Sector Index remained in the expansion zone at 50.1% [2] - Certain sectors like postal, telecommunications, and financial services maintained high business activity indices above 60.0%, while sectors closely related to consumer spending, such as dining and entertainment, fell below the critical point [2] Group 3 - Overall, September's macroeconomic indicators showed a stable improvement, with multiple positive factors contributing to increased market vitality [3] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies are expected to be intensified, providing new momentum and confidence to the market [3]

Report Overview - The report is a commentary on the September 2025 PMI data by the fixed - income research team, analyzing the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI, and providing bond market views [2][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural problems such as prices are expected to improve; the allocation between stocks and bonds continues to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and at the highest level since April 2025, indicating continuous improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level for two consecutive months [4] - In terms of industries, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing was 51.6%, equipment manufacturing was 51.9%, consumer goods industry was 50.6%, and basic raw materials industry was 47.5%. The consumer goods industry's PMI returned to the expansion range, and the equipment manufacturing's PMI continued to rise [5] - Among the component indices, the production index was 51.9%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining in the expansion range for 5 consecutive months and reaching a 6 - month high. The production and operation activity expectation index was 54.1%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, rising for three consecutive months [5] - By enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.0%, medium - sized enterprises was 48.8%, and small enterprises was 48.2%. The prosperity levels of large and small enterprises increased month - on - month, with large enterprises remaining in the expansion range for 5 consecutive months and small enterprises' PMI increasing by 1.6 percentage points [6] Non - manufacturing - The non - manufacturing PMI in September was 50.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, remaining at the critical point and generally stable [7] - In terms of industries, the construction industry's PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, with a slight recovery in prosperity. The service industry's PMI was 50.1%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, still in the expansion range [7] - Among the main classification indices, the new order index was 46.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in market demand. The business activity expectation index was 55.7%, still in a relatively high prosperity range [7] Comprehensive - The comprehensive PMI in September was 50.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 0.2 - percentage - point increase year - on - year, remaining in the expansion range for 33 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [8] Bond Market - In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. The economic growth rate may not decline significantly in the second half of 2025, structural problems are expected to improve, and the allocation between stocks and bonds continues to shift, with both bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [9]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points, and small enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points [1] - The production index was 51.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion in the manufacturing sector [1][2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In September, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in non-manufacturing business volume [3] - The construction industry Business Activity Index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points [3] - The new orders index was 46.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand in the non-manufacturing sector [3][4] Group 3: Price Indices in Non-Manufacturing - The input price index was 49.0%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating a decrease in the overall price level of inputs for non-manufacturing enterprises [3][4] - The sales price index was 47.3%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating a continued decline in the overall sales price level in the non-manufacturing sector [4] Group 4: Employment and Expectations in Non-Manufacturing - The employment index was 45.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in employment sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector [4] - The business activity expectations index was 55.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, but still indicates optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [4] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - In September, the Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating that production and operational activities of enterprises continued to expand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50% [1][3][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight recovery, reflecting the effectiveness of various growth-stabilizing policies [3]. - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and procurement volume index all increased, indicating a recovery in production activities [3]. - However, order indices remain below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand issues [3][4]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was stable at 50%, with the financial sector showing a notable increase above 60%, indicating a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [5][6]. - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and software services, have shown strong performance, contributing positively to economic vitality [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by increased macro policies, holiday consumption, and optimistic corporate expectations [1][8]. - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to see continued growth in production activities, supported by favorable market prices and completion of annual business targets [10][11]. - The construction and service sectors are expected to experience a rebound in activity, particularly during the holiday season [7][10].