文/ 广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 9 月 PMI 数 据 公 布 ， 这 是 在 EPMI 、 BCI 之 后 公 布 的 第 三 个 关 于 9 月 经 济 的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强弱有别，但指向基本一致，9月经济出现 了秋季旺季的季节性改善 。 9月经济出现季节性改善 9月PMI数据公布，这是在EPMI、BCI之后公布的第三个关于9月经济的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强弱有别，但指向基本一致，9月经济出现 了秋季旺季的季节性改善。历史上不是所有年份的"秋旺"都成立，比如2018、2021年，9月PMI均是环比下行的，2016年9月是环比持平。 Wind数据显示，9月EPMI（战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数）环比上行4.6个点至52.4。秋旺特征显现，环比上行幅度大致持平于季节性均值 水平。长江商学院BCI指数在6-8月连续放缓后，9月出现跃升，从前值的46.9回升至51.1，表现略超预期。9月PMI为49.8，高于前值的49.4。 PMI表明七个强经济信号 一是生产强于需求。9月PMI生产指标和新订单指标差值进一步扩大至2.2个点。生产指标，处于2024年2月以来的新高。我们理解其背后可能 一则是金融条 ...

——2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） 事件点评 2025 年 09 月 30 日 制造业持续复苏，景气水平整体保持扩张 固定收益研究团队 chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 分行业看，高技术制造业 PMI 为 51.6%（51.9%），装备制造业 PMI 为 51.9% （50.5%），消费品行业 PMI 为 50.6%（49.2%），基础原材料行业 PMI 为 47.5% （48.2%）。9 月消费品行业 PMI 重回扩张区间，装备制造业 PMI 持续提升，装 备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业 PMI 均高于制造业总体，处于扩张区间。 从构成指数看，生产指数为 51.9%（50.8%），新订单指数为 49.7%（49.5%），原 材料库存指数为 48.5%（48.0%），从业人员指数为 48.5%（47.9%），供应商配送 时间指数为 50.8%（50.5%）。生产指数环比提升 1.1pct，连续 5 个月位于扩张区 间，升至近 6 个月高点 ...

Group 1: Macro Policy and Manufacturing Sector - The macro policy is expected to be intensified and implemented, with the manufacturing PMI showing a slight recovery to 49.8% in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing policy effects [2] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for two months, while the procurement volume index increased to 51.6%, suggesting improved production activities [6] - The new orders index for manufacturing increased to 49.7%, indicating a stabilization in market demand, while the new export orders index rose to 47.8%, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [6][8] Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Outlook - The purchasing price index for manufacturing decreased to 53.2%, and the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating a mixed price trend across different industries [7] - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, suggesting an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, particularly in sectors like food processing, automotive, and aerospace [8] - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with the construction sector showing slight improvement, while the service sector experienced a minor decline [11][12]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 9月PMI数据公布，这是在EPMI、BCI之后公布的第三个关于9月经济的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强 弱有别，但指向基本一致，9月经济出现了秋季旺季的季节性改善。历史上不是所有年份的"秋旺"都成立，比 如2018、2021年，9月PMI均是环比下行的，2016年9月是环比持平。 第二， 从PMI来看，目前经济信号之一是生产强于需求。9月PMI生产指标和新订单指标差值进一步扩大至 2.2个点。生产指标，处于2024年2月以来的新高。我们理解其背后可能一则是金融条件有利于供给；二则是 在价格和利润率偏低背景下，企业可能更倾向于以量补价。 第三， 从PMI来看，目前经济的信号之二是出口景气度没有变化。5月以来一直处于47-48之间，其中季度末 的6月、9月是两个高点。这与集装箱吞吐量持续偏高的情况也比较吻合。我们理解尽管关税、"抢出口"可能 带来一定节奏波动，但中国制造护城河仍较为明显，海外"财政端扩张+货币端降息"的环境也整体有利于外 需。 第四， 从PMI来看，目前经济的信号之三是大企业景气度较高，小企业短期改善较明显，中型企业压力偏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remains stable at 50% [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight increase, reflecting the effectiveness of various growth-stabilizing policies [2] - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and procurement volume index have risen, while order-related indices remain below the threshold, indicating persistent demand challenges [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors show rising purchasing price indices above 50%, suggesting increased raw material costs, while the basic raw materials sector faces pressure due to weak real estate investment [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50%, indicating stability, with the financial sector's index exceeding 60%, providing a favorable environment for economic recovery [4][5] - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and internet services, are performing well, with significant increases in business activity indices [5] - The construction sector remains weak, with indices below 50%, highlighting the need for improved project execution and funding [5] Economic Outlook - The third quarter saw a slight improvement in manufacturing PMI, averaging 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to previous quarters [6] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stability, with an average business activity index of 50.1% for the third quarter [6] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies are expected to strengthen, with anticipated boosts in consumer demand and infrastructure projects driving economic activity [6][7] - Manufacturing firms exhibit increased optimism for the fourth quarter, with the production activity expectation index rising to 54.1% [7]

Group 1 - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, marking two consecutive months of growth [1][3] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50%, indicating stable overall operations, while the comprehensive PMI output index remained in expansion [1][6] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, outperforming the same period last year, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The production index, new orders index, and purchasing volume index showed signs of recovery, while order indices remained below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand challenges [3][4] - The construction sector's business activity index remained below 50%, indicating weak growth in investment-related construction activities [7] - The overall economic outlook for the fourth quarter is positive, driven by macroeconomic policy support, holiday consumption, and project launches [8][10] Group 3 - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in the third quarter was 49.5%, showing a slight increase compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [9] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stable operations with an average business activity index of 50.1% in the third quarter [9] - Expectations for the fourth quarter are optimistic, with manufacturing enterprises showing increased confidence in production activities [10]

9月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的中国采购经理指数显示，9月份制 造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.8%，较8月上升0.4个百分点，实现连续两个月回升；非制造业 商务活动指数为50%，处于临界点，整体运行平稳；综合PMI产出指数保持扩张。 9月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为50%，环比下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点。中国物流与采购联合会 副会长何辉认为，9月份，商务活动指数较上月下降，但仍稳定在50%，与去年同期持平，显示非制造 业经营活动保持平稳。 分析指出，生产端和企业采购活动显现恢复迹象，稳增长政策效果正进一步显现。同期，非制造业运行 保持平稳，其中金融业商务活动指数升至60%以上，且好于去年同期，为经济回升提供了有利的金融环 境。不过，分析也指出，市场需求不足仍是当前核心挑战，制造业订单类指数均处于荣枯线以下，同时 建筑业活动偏弱，反映出经济复苏的基础尚需加固。展望四季度，在宏观政策加力，节假日消费、项目 发力及企业乐观预期的共同推动下，宏观经济有望继续向好回升。 制造业PMI连续两个月上升 9月份制造业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续两个月上升。中 ...

9月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的中国采购经理指数显示，9月份制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.8%，较8月上 升0.4个百分点，实现连续两个月回升；非制造业商务活动指数为50%，处于临界点，整体运行平稳；综合PMI产出指数保持扩张。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬强调，尽管两个价格指数均较上月有所下降，但分行业来看，市场价格运行走势有所分化。 具体来看，装备制造业和消费品制造业购进价格指数都在50%以上，且环比上升，出厂价格指数虽都在50%以下，但环比上升，显示装备制造业和消费品制 造业原材料购进价格都加快上升，产成品销售价格降势收窄。高技术制造业购进价格指数在扩张区间内环比上升，出厂价格指数与上月持平，显示高技术制 造业原材料购进价格加快上升，产品销售价格稳定。 "压力较大的是基础原材料行业。"文韬指出，由于房地产投资相对低迷以及国外大宗商品市场波动等原因，基础原材料行业运行趋弱，购进价格指数虽保持在 扩张区间，但较上月下降2.2个百分点，出厂价格指数较上月下降4.5个百分点至略高于45%的水平，显示基础原材料行业购进价格上升势头放缓，产品销售价 格加快下降。整体来看，当 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In September 2025, China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, exceeding market expectations[1] - The New Orders Index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the Production Index surged by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, marking a six-month high[2] - Seasonal recovery, improved consumer demand due to policy incentives, and positive outcomes from the China-US trade talks contributed to the PMI increase[2] Price and Economic Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline to approximately -2.3% in September, influenced by last year's lower base[3] - The Manufacturing PMI for high-tech sectors stood at 51.6%, while the Equipment Manufacturing PMI rose significantly by 1.4 percentage points to 51.9%[4][5] - The Consumer Goods Manufacturing PMI also increased by 1.4 percentage points to 50.6%, supported by government subsidies and stable export growth[5] Service and Construction PMI - The Services PMI decreased to 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, reflecting seasonal trends and the impact of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - The Construction PMI was at 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, but remained in contraction territory due to a cooling real estate market and weak infrastructure investment[7] Economic Outlook - The overall macroeconomic environment shows slight improvement, with a projected GDP growth rate of around 4.7% year-on-year for Q3, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from Q2[7] - Looking ahead, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly decline to approximately 49.6% in October, influenced by high tariffs and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[8]

中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，9月份制造业PMI指数继续小幅回升，表明稳增长多项 政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回升，显示企业 生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求的情况仍然比 较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 随着高温多雨极端天气影响消退，叠加扩内需促增长政策继续发力，制造业PMI出现回升，但仍位于荣 枯线之下。 国家统计局9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，较上月上升0.4 个百分点，连续2个月上升。非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 张立群表示，综合看，当前政策推动的经济回升因素与市场引导的经济收缩力量仍处激烈角力之中。要 以力度足够的政府投资有效激活企业投资需求和居民消费需求，使超大规模内需市场尽快摆脱市场引导 的收缩态势，尽快转入持续活跃扩张轨道。 制造业供需改善 9月份制造业部分行业迎来产销旺季，带动制造业整体生产活动加快扩张。生产指数为51.9%，较上月 上升1.1个百分点，连续2个月上升，连续5个月运 ...