Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report analyzes the October 2025 PMI data, indicating that the manufacturing industry is under pressure and the economy still needs policy support. The manufacturing PMI has declined, with structural pressures intensifying, while the service industry has a mild uptick and the construction industry remains sluggish. Future economic improvement requires the implementation of policies such as anti - involution and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, showing a weakening overall manufacturing industry due to factors like reduced working days, trade frictions, and high inventory [1]. - **Structural Pressures**: All four major sub - indicators of the manufacturing PMI declined. The production index dropped to 49.7%, the new order index to 48.8%, the raw material inventory to 47.3%, and the employment index to 48.3%, indicating weakness in production, demand, and employment [2]. - **Enterprise Scale**: The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all in the contraction range. Large enterprises entered the contraction range for the first time in the second half of the year, and small and medium - sized enterprises have been below the boom - bust line for many months [2]. - **Demand Side**: External demand contracted significantly, with the new export order index dropping 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% and the import index falling 1.3 percentage points to 46.8%. Domestic demand was relatively stable, and the domestic market's support for demand increased [3]. - **Industry Categories**: New - energy - related industries had better prosperity, while basic raw material industries were weak. The production index of equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing decreased but remained in the expansion range, while the production index of basic raw material industries dropped below 48% [3]. - **PMI Quantity - Price Sub - Index**: The PMI quantity - price (ex - factory price index) sub - index weakened, reflecting the pressure of demand contraction and poor cost transmission. It may continue the contraction trend in the short term [5]. Service Industry - The service industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, hovering around the boom - bust line for many months. Consumer service industries recovered significantly, while production - related service industries fell into the contraction range [5]. Construction Industry - The construction industry PMI was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The decline of the real estate market and the slowdown of infrastructure investment were the main reasons for the industry's downturn, but infrastructure - related construction activities showed signs of acceleration [5]. Future Outlook - Economic recovery requires policy support. The implementation of anti - involution and domestic - demand - expansion policies in the fourth quarter will help improve the economy. The injection of new policy - based financial tools, the early use of part of the 2026 fiscal budget, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide impetus for the manufacturing industry [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, showing a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level, while the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the comprehensive PMI was at the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises were stable. With the easing of international situations and policy support, the overall prosperity of the manufacturing industry is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [3][5][7]. - In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trendily due to the revision of economic expectations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8pct; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1pct; the comprehensive PMI was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct [3]. 3.2 Reasons for the Decline in Manufacturing PMI - Seasonal factors: The pre - holiday demand was released in advance, and the number of working days decreased. The production index and new order index declined, leading to a seasonal decline in the manufacturing PMI [5]. - International environment: Due to the unclear results of China - US trade negotiations, the new export order index of the manufacturing industry dropped to 45.9%, the second - lowest point of the year, and the production and operation activity expectation index also declined [5]. 3.3 Structural Highlights in the Data - Key industries remained resilient: The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were above 50%, higher than the overall manufacturing level and still in the expansion range [6]. - Non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range: The service industry PMI increased by 0.1pct to 50.2% due to the holiday effect and promotional activities, and the business activity expectation index remained in a high - prosperity range. The construction industry's business activity expectation index increased by 3.6pct, indicating improved confidence [6]. 3.4 Bond Market Viewpoint - Due to the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendily [8]. 3.5 Related Research Report References - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trendily; the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the decline of manufacturing PMI, weaker than the seasonal level and with weakening supply and demand, may indicate certain downward pressure on the Q4 economy [2][7]. - Both domestic and external demands declined, and price indicators did not continue the improvement trend of last month. The differentiated structure of "strong raw material prices and weak finished - product prices" may restrict the repair of corporate profits [2][7]. - The business climate of large enterprises fell below the boom - bust line, and the business climates of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries significantly declined [2][7]. - The business climate of the non - manufacturing industry is mainly driven by holiday service consumption, and the overall expansion strength is still weak [2][7]. - The trading logic of the bond market in Q4 focuses on the weakening economic fundamentals and the expectation of monetary easing, and a repair market may be welcomed. It is expected that the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond (tax - exempt) may decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond may decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 pct from the previous month, lower than the Wind consensus forecast of 50.0%. The non - manufacturing business activity index slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 50.1%, slightly higher than the boom - bust line and lower than the Wind consensus forecast of 50.3%. Among them, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 pct, and the construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 pct [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing PMI and economic pressure**: The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 fell back to a nearly two - year low. The production index and new order index decreased by 2.2 pct and 0.9 pct respectively to 49.7% and 48.8%. The procurement volume index decreased significantly by 2.6 pct to 49.0%, and the difference between the "finished - product inventory - on - hand orders" index widened by 0.6 pct to 3.6 pct. The weak pattern of production and demand was partly due to the pre - release of some demand before the National Day holiday and partly reflected the lack of endogenous momentum, indicating certain downward pressure on the Q4 economy [7]. - **Demand and price situation**: In October, external demand did not continue its resilience, and the new export order index significantly declined by 1.9 pct to 45.9%. The new order index for domestic demand also turned from rising to falling. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index both decreased by 0.7 pct, recording 52.5% and 47.5% respectively. The difference between them remained at 5.0 pct, and the main raw material purchase price index was still in the expansion range. The "strong raw material prices and weak finished - product prices" structure may restrict the repair of corporate profits [7]. - **Enterprise and industry changes**: Among enterprises, the PMIs of large and small enterprises both fell by 1.1 pct to 49.9% and 47.1% respectively, and the PMI of medium - sized enterprises slightly fell by 0.1 pct to 48.7%. In terms of industries, the PMIs of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries were 50.5% and 50.2% respectively, a decline of 1.1 pct and 1.7 pct from the previous month. The consumer goods industry remained in the expansion range, slightly falling by 0.5 pct to 50.1%, while the PMI of the basic raw material industry further dropped to 47.3%. The overall market expectation was optimistic, with the production and business activity expectation index at 52.8%, and the expectation indexes of industries such as non - ferrous metals and transportation equipment rising to the high - level boom range above 60% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing industry situation**: In October, the non - manufacturing PMI slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 50.1%, and the service industry PMI rose to 50.2%. The on - hand order index fell by 0.8 pct while the new order index remained flat, indicating that the holiday effect was the main driver. The business activity indexes of industries such as transportation, accommodation, and culture and entertainment were all in the high - level boom range above 60%, but industries such as real estate continued to be sluggish. The construction industry business activity index turned from rising to falling, decreasing by 0.2 pct to 49.1%, possibly dragged down by the slowdown of holiday construction and the decline of post - holiday real estate sales [7]. - **Bond market outlook**: Currently, the endogenous momentum for the repair of production and demand may be limited. On the day when the PMI data was released, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.95 BP. The economic fundamentals still face a pattern of weak supply and demand, the pressure on enterprises for passive inventory replenishment continues, and the ex - factory - raw material price gap still restricts the repair of corporate profits. Although 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been put in place and local governments have an additional 200 billion yuan of special bond quotas, the sustainability of the recovery of real estate sales and the transmission effect of policy funds on infrastructure investment still need to be observed. The trading logic of the bond market in Q4 focuses on the weakening economic fundamentals and the expectation of monetary easing, and a repair market may be welcomed. It is expected that the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond (tax - exempt) may decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond may decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month, with a larger - than - seasonal decline due to holiday disruptions and external factors. The new export order index was affected by trade frictions but is expected to rebound in November. The service industry's business activity index showed a mild expansion, and the new policy - based financial instruments are expected to promote economic development [2][3][10]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Manufacturing Industry - **Overall PMI**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month. The decline had some seasonal factors but was larger due to holiday and external impacts. Large - scale enterprises' PMI dropped below the boom - bust line after 5 - month expansion, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and small - sized enterprises faced greater pressure [2][5]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 49.7% (previous 51.9%), and the new order index was 48.8% (previous 49.7%), indicating a slowdown in production and a decline in market demand. The new export order index was 45.9% (previous 47.8%), pulling down the overall new order index. It is expected to rebound in November due to Sino - US trade talks [2][5][6]. - **Industry Performance**: New - energy - related industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing remained in the expansion range. The basic raw material industry's PMI continued to decline. Some industries like农副 food processing and automotive were active, while others like textile and chemical fiber had weak supply and demand [2][5]. - **Price and Inventory**: The main raw material purchase price index was 52.5% (previous 53.2%), and the ex - factory price index was 47.5% (previous 48.2%), squeezing corporate profits. The raw material inventory index was 47.3% (previous 48.5%), and the finished - product inventory index was 48.1% (previous 48.2%), showing cautious inventory increase [3][6][7]. - **Employment and Expectation**: The manufacturing employment index was 48.3% (previous 48.5%), with little change. The production and business activity expectation index was 52.8% (previous 54.1%), with a slight decline in expectations [8]. Non - manufacturing Industry - **Overall Non - manufacturing**: In October, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month [4][8]. - **Construction Industry**: The construction business activity index was 49.1% (previous 49.3%), with a slight decline. The new order index was 45.9% (previous 42.2%), and the employment index was 39.9% (previous 39.7%). The business activity expectation index was 56.0% (previous 52.4%). The real - estate market continued to drag down the construction industry [8]. - **Service Industry**: The service business activity index was 50.2% (previous 50.1%), showing a mild expansion. The new order index was 46.0% (previous 46.7%), the employment index was 46.1% (previous 45.9%), and the business activity expectation index was 56.1% (previous 56.3%). Some industries like railway and aviation were in a high - level boom range, while insurance and real - estate were weak [9]. Policy Impact As of the end of October, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments were fully invested, and the supported projects are expected to be implemented intensively from October to December, driving over 7 trillion yuan in total project investment and promoting economic development [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The September economic data indicates a seasonal improvement, aligning with other soft indicators like EPMI and BCI, suggesting a positive trend in the economy during the autumn peak season [4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The September EPMI rose by 4.6 points to 52.4, reflecting seasonal characteristics of the autumn peak, with the increase aligning with seasonal averages [5]. - The BCI index rebounded from 46.9 to 51.1 in September, exceeding expectations after a slowdown in the previous months [5]. - The PMI for September was reported at 49.8, slightly above the previous value of 49.4, indicating a stabilization in economic activity [5]. Group 2: Production and Demand - Production outpaced demand, with the production index at 51.9 and new orders at 49.7, resulting in a production-new orders differential of 2.2 points, the highest since January 2024 [8]. - The export index remained stable, with new export orders at 47.8, indicating resilience in external demand despite global economic challenges [8]. Group 3: Business Size Impact - Large enterprises showed higher PMI at 51.0, while small enterprises improved significantly by 1.6 points, contrasting with a decline in medium-sized enterprises [9]. - The disparity suggests that large firms benefit from more substantial projects, while small firms gain from exports and emerging sectors [9]. Group 4: Price Trends - Price indices showed fluctuations, with the purchasing price index at 53.2 and the factory price index at 48.2, indicating ongoing price pressures despite some initial improvements [10]. - The short-term price trends need reinforcement, as production levels exceed demand, affecting pricing stability [10]. Group 5: Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 54.1, reflecting improved business sentiment due to factors like debt clearance and market activity [10]. - The equipment manufacturing sector showed the highest PMI at 51.9, while consumer goods manufacturing also improved, driven by seasonal factors [10]. Group 6: Construction Sector - The construction sector's PMI was at 49.3, indicating a low level of activity historically for September, with investment in real estate and infrastructure showing signs of weakness [11]. - The need for policy measures to stimulate investment in construction is highlighted to prevent further economic slowdown [13].

Report Overview - The report is a commentary on the September 2025 PMI data by the fixed - income research team, analyzing the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI, and providing bond market views [2][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural problems such as prices are expected to improve; the allocation between stocks and bonds continues to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and at the highest level since April 2025, indicating continuous improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level for two consecutive months [4] - In terms of industries, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing was 51.6%, equipment manufacturing was 51.9%, consumer goods industry was 50.6%, and basic raw materials industry was 47.5%. The consumer goods industry's PMI returned to the expansion range, and the equipment manufacturing's PMI continued to rise [5] - Among the component indices, the production index was 51.9%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining in the expansion range for 5 consecutive months and reaching a 6 - month high. The production and operation activity expectation index was 54.1%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, rising for three consecutive months [5] - By enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.0%, medium - sized enterprises was 48.8%, and small enterprises was 48.2%. The prosperity levels of large and small enterprises increased month - on - month, with large enterprises remaining in the expansion range for 5 consecutive months and small enterprises' PMI increasing by 1.6 percentage points [6] Non - manufacturing - The non - manufacturing PMI in September was 50.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, remaining at the critical point and generally stable [7] - In terms of industries, the construction industry's PMI was 49.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, with a slight recovery in prosperity. The service industry's PMI was 50.1%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, still in the expansion range [7] - Among the main classification indices, the new order index was 46.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in market demand. The business activity expectation index was 55.7%, still in a relatively high prosperity range [7] Comprehensive - The comprehensive PMI in September was 50.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 0.2 - percentage - point increase year - on - year, remaining in the expansion range for 33 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [8] Bond Market - In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. The economic growth rate may not decline significantly in the second half of 2025, structural problems are expected to improve, and the allocation between stocks and bonds continues to shift, with both bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [9]

Group 1: Macro Policy and Manufacturing Sector - The macro policy is expected to be intensified and implemented, with the manufacturing PMI showing a slight recovery to 49.8% in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing policy effects [2] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for two months, while the procurement volume index increased to 51.6%, suggesting improved production activities [6] - The new orders index for manufacturing increased to 49.7%, indicating a stabilization in market demand, while the new export orders index rose to 47.8%, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [6][8] Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Outlook - The purchasing price index for manufacturing decreased to 53.2%, and the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating a mixed price trend across different industries [7] - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, suggesting an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, particularly in sectors like food processing, automotive, and aerospace [8] - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with the construction sector showing slight improvement, while the service sector experienced a minor decline [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The September PMI data indicates a seasonal improvement in the economy, with production outpacing demand and a stable export outlook, despite challenges faced by medium-sized enterprises and the construction sector [1][4][17]. Group 1: PMI Data Insights - The September PMI is reported at 49.8, an increase from the previous value of 49.4, suggesting a slight recovery in economic activity [7]. - The production index reached a new high since February 2024, indicating that production is stronger than demand, with a difference of 2.2 points between the production and new orders indices [8][10]. - The new export orders index stands at 47.8, showing stability in export demand despite fluctuations due to tariffs and external economic conditions [11]. Group 2: Business Size Impact - Large enterprises show a higher PMI of 51.0, while small enterprises improved by 1.6 points, indicating short-term recovery, whereas medium-sized enterprises face more pressure with a PMI of 48.8 [11][12]. - The disparity in performance suggests that large enterprises benefit more from significant projects, while small enterprises gain from exports and emerging sectors [11]. Group 3: Price Trends and Expectations - The price index for September shows a slight decline, indicating that the price trend is not yet solidified, with the purchasing price index at 53.2 and the factory price index at 48.2 [12][13]. - The production activity expectation index has improved, reflecting better microeconomic expectations among businesses, with a value of 54.1 in September [13]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector shows the highest PMI at 51.9, while consumer goods manufacturing has improved to 50.6, benefiting from seasonal factors like the upcoming National Day holiday [14][15]. - The construction sector remains weak, with a PMI of 49.3, indicating ongoing challenges in fixed asset investment and construction activity [16]. Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - The stabilization of soft data in September is seen as a positive sign, although the overall economic climate still requires consolidation, with manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 [4][17]. - The need for stronger price trends and investment in infrastructure is emphasized to prevent further economic slowdown [17].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remains stable at 50% [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight increase, reflecting the effectiveness of various growth-stabilizing policies [2] - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and procurement volume index have risen, while order-related indices remain below the threshold, indicating persistent demand challenges [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors show rising purchasing price indices above 50%, suggesting increased raw material costs, while the basic raw materials sector faces pressure due to weak real estate investment [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50%, indicating stability, with the financial sector's index exceeding 60%, providing a favorable environment for economic recovery [4][5] - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and internet services, are performing well, with significant increases in business activity indices [5] - The construction sector remains weak, with indices below 50%, highlighting the need for improved project execution and funding [5] Economic Outlook - The third quarter saw a slight improvement in manufacturing PMI, averaging 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to previous quarters [6] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stability, with an average business activity index of 50.1% for the third quarter [6] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies are expected to strengthen, with anticipated boosts in consumer demand and infrastructure projects driving economic activity [6][7] - Manufacturing firms exhibit increased optimism for the fourth quarter, with the production activity expectation index rising to 54.1% [7]

Group 1 - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, marking two consecutive months of growth [1][3] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50%, indicating stable overall operations, while the comprehensive PMI output index remained in expansion [1][6] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, outperforming the same period last year, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The production index, new orders index, and purchasing volume index showed signs of recovery, while order indices remained below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand challenges [3][4] - The construction sector's business activity index remained below 50%, indicating weak growth in investment-related construction activities [7] - The overall economic outlook for the fourth quarter is positive, driven by macroeconomic policy support, holiday consumption, and project launches [8][10] Group 3 - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in the third quarter was 49.5%, showing a slight increase compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [9] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stable operations with an average business activity index of 50.1% in the third quarter [9] - Expectations for the fourth quarter are optimistic, with manufacturing enterprises showing increased confidence in production activities [10]