专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 这一举措不仅有助于在农业和农村地区建立基本的社会安全网，还能释放中国长期被压抑的消费潜力。 邢自强称，如果社会保障体系得到有效夯实，居民消费占GDP的比例有望从目前的不足40%上升至 45%，突破10万亿美元消费大关，从而缓解当前"内卷化"竞争和供给过剩的问题。 责任编辑：宋雅芳 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂，共寻穿越 周期的投资真谛。摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强就宏观经济前景与资产配置策略发表主题演讲。 邢自强表示，中国长期以来存在的高储蓄、低消费问题，其根源之一在于社会保障体系的不平衡和不充 分。无论是与国际水平相比，还是与收入水平相近的经济体相比，抑或是中国城乡之间的差距，社会保 障体系均有较大的改善空间。他提出，若能从改善农民和农民工的社会保障福利入手，在未来五年 到"十五五"规划末期，实现中央社保每月补贴1000元人民币的目标，到2030年，中国将初步建立针对中 低收入弱势群体的社会保障凭证。 ...

面对可能加剧债务的担忧，邢自强提出了清晰的"开源"路径：盘活庞大的国有资产。他建议，将更多国 有资产划归社保体系，并通过市场化运营提升其收益率进行分红。邢自强强调，此举既能壮大社保资金 池，又能倒逼国有企业运营更趋市场化，形成良性循环。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂，共寻穿越 周期的投资真谛。摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强就宏观经济前景与资产配置策略发表主题演讲。 在如何破解中国高储蓄、低消费结构性难题的讨论中，邢自强明确指出要完善社会保障体系，并且配套 以稳健的财政策略，其关键在于"开源"与"节流"并举，实现资源的高效再配置。 在"节流"端，他直指过去二十余年资源配置的惯性。"财政、金融和政府资源长期过度偏向供给端，尤 其是基础设施投资。"邢自强分析道，这部分投资已显现饱和迹象，投资回报正在下降。未来的转型方 向，是从"投资于物"更多地向"投资于人"倾斜，即将原本用于基础设施的部分资源，转而用于夯实社会 保险与福利网络。 邢自强将"一增一减"的财政再平衡，视为释放消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, with a focus on high-quality development by 2030 [1] Group 1: Consumption Market Transformation - The Chinese consumption market is transitioning from total expansion to structural optimization, with a focus on matching product supply to the diverse needs of different demographics, including infants, students, young adults, and the elderly [1][5] - The plan emphasizes the importance of a strong domestic circulation system, where improved corporate earnings can lead to job creation and increased resident income, thereby enhancing consumer purchasing power [2] Group 2: High-Quality and Innovative Consumption - The plan highlights the shift towards high-quality, innovative, and green consumption, indicating a demand for smarter and more sustainable products [5] - The focus on precise supply-demand matching across all age groups aims to activate consumer potential and stimulate consumption dynamics [7] Group 3: Differentiation and Brand Value - Companies are encouraged to adopt a mindset of differentiation, emphasizing higher standards such as environmental sustainability, brand value, and enhanced product and service experiences [10] - The market's competitive mechanism will favor companies that can effectively meet consumer demands for quality and innovation [10] Group 4: Employment and Income Stability - To boost consumption, it is crucial to stabilize employment and promote income growth, which will enhance consumer purchasing power and alleviate concerns for households [12] - The plan aims to identify new growth points and dynamics in the industry while ensuring that quality improvements lead to sustainable consumption growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Personal Consumption Loan Financial Subsidy Policy" aims to stimulate consumer spending and support economic growth by reducing the cost of consumer credit through financial subsidies [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The subsidy policy began in September and is designed to lower the cost of consumer loans, thereby enhancing consumer purchasing power and promoting economic recovery [1][3]. - The policy has been well-received, with nearly 1 million customers signing subsidy agreements and over 1.8 million transactions recognized as eligible for subsidies by the end of October [3][10]. - The combination of the subsidy policy with other initiatives, such as trade-in programs, is expected to create a synergistic effect that enhances consumer spending [1][7]. Group 2: Consumer Experience and Benefits - Consumers report a seamless experience when applying for loans and receiving subsidies, with many banks offering automated systems for recognizing eligible transactions [2][9]. - For example, a consumer in Dongguan saved over 1,000 yuan in interest by utilizing the subsidy for a loan on home appliances [2][9]. - The policy has led to significant increases in the adoption of interest-free installment plans, with some retailers reporting a 60% increase in eligible products during promotional events [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Institutions' Role - Major banks, including state-owned and joint-stock commercial banks, have actively participated in the implementation of the subsidy policy, streamlining processes to facilitate consumer access [5][16]. - Financial institutions have developed dedicated systems to ensure compliance and efficiency in processing subsidy applications, enhancing customer service [3][10]. - The Agricultural Bank of China reported that it has provided 1.2 billion yuan in subsidies to over 10,000 customers since the policy's launch [10][16]. Group 4: E-commerce and Retail Response - E-commerce platforms and retailers have responded positively to the subsidy policy, with many offering additional discounts and interest-free financing options to attract consumers [6][14]. - The integration of the subsidy with online shopping platforms has made it easier for consumers to benefit from financial support without additional steps [5][14]. - Retailers have noted a significant increase in sales of high-ticket items, such as home appliances and vehicles, attributed to the financial incentives provided by the policy [7][15].

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics emphasizes the need to expand domestic demand, unleash consumption potential, increase effective investment, strengthen innovation-driven growth, regulate market competition, promote capacity governance in key industries, and facilitate a reasonable rebound in industrial producer prices [1] Group 1 - The focus on expanding domestic demand is crucial for economic growth [1] - There is an emphasis on unleashing consumption potential to drive economic activity [1] - Increasing effective investment is highlighted as a key strategy for economic development [1] Group 2 - Strengthening innovation-driven growth is essential for enhancing competitiveness [1] - Regulating market competition is necessary to ensure a fair business environment [1] - Promoting capacity governance in key industries is aimed at optimizing production efficiency [1] Group 3 - Facilitating a reasonable rebound in industrial producer prices is important for stabilizing the economy [1]

Core Points - The Ministry of Commerce is launching a "Boutique Consumption Month" in 2025, focusing on premium shopping, exquisite food, exciting tourism, and fine performances to create new consumption scenarios and expand the supply of quality goods and services [1] Group 1: Boutique Shopping - Various regions are introducing a "Boutique Consumption Month: Shopping Hotspots List," which includes key shopping districts and tax refund stores as consumer destinations [4] - Shanghai is hosting a Consumption Carnival in conjunction with the China International Import Expo, while Chongqing is organizing the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin City Consumption Festival with activities like "New Trends from the Expo" and "New Shopping Scenes" [4] Group 2: Exciting Tourism - Localities are launching seasonal and themed tourism products and activities that highlight local history, culture, and natural ecology [8] - Tianjin is promoting popular autumn sightseeing routes through its "Tianjin Autumn Appointment" series [8] Group 3: Exquisite Food - Regions are showcasing local must-try delicacies and recommending restaurants and food streets [9] - Guangzhou is hosting an International Food Festival in conjunction with the 15th National Games, inviting global guests to taste international cuisines [9] Group 4: Fine Performances - The Ministry of Commerce is organizing a "Boutique Consumption Month Fine Performance List," featuring high-quality cultural performances, major sports events, and premium cultural exhibitions [10] - Beijing is launching the "Great Drama in Beijing" 2025 performance season, introducing a series of premiere shows [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce is launching a "Boutique Consumption Month" in five international consumer center cities and over 100 key cities nationwide, focusing on enhancing consumer experiences and expanding the supply of quality goods and services by 2025 [1] Group 1: Boutique Shopping - Various regions are introducing a "Boutique Consumption Month: Shopping Hotspots List," which includes key shopping districts and tax refund stores for outbound tourists [1] - Shanghai is hosting a Consumption Carnival in conjunction with the China International Import Expo, while Chongqing is organizing the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin City Consumption Festival with activities like "New Trends from the Expo" and "New Scenes for Quality Purchases" [1] Group 2: Exquisite Cuisine - Local specialties and recommended dining establishments are being promoted across different regions [1] - Guangzhou is hosting an International Food Festival in conjunction with the 15th National Games, inviting global guests to experience diverse culinary offerings [1] Group 3: Exciting Tourism - Regions are launching seasonal and culturally themed tourism products and activities that highlight local history, customs, and natural ecology [1] - Tianjin is connecting popular autumn sightseeing spots with a series of themed routes called "Tianjin Autumn Appointment" [1] Group 4: Fine Performances - A "Boutique Consumption Month: Fine Performance List" is being organized, featuring high-quality cultural performances, major sports events, and premium cultural exhibitions [1] - Beijing is conducting the "Great Drama in Beijing" 2025 performance season, showcasing a variety of premiere productions [1]

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, consumption has become a crucial driver of China's economic growth, contributing over 50% to GDP growth, with expectations for final consumption expenditure to account for approximately 55% of GDP in 2024 [1][2] Consumption Contribution to Economic Growth - Final consumption expenditure's contribution to GDP growth has stabilized between 55% and 60%, significantly surpassing investment and net exports, establishing it as the primary driving force of the economy [2] - In 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to reach 48.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% increase from the previous year, with service retail sales growing at a remarkable rate of 6.2% [2] - The shift from "material consumption" to "service consumption" indicates a profound transformation in consumption structure, with service consumption becoming a key marker of consumption upgrading [2] Changes in Consumption Structure - Service consumption has seen a notable increase, with significant growth in expenditures on education, healthcare, culture, and tourism [3] - Health and safety expenditures are rising, with per capita healthcare spending increasing by 1.3% in 2024 [3] - The emergence of intelligent and green consumption is evident, with new energy vehicle production increasing by 38.7% in 2024 [3] - There is a growing awareness of long-term value in consumption, with per capita service consumption expenditure reaching 46.1% of total consumption in 2024 [3] Consumer Behavior and Expectations - Consumers are increasingly seeking higher quality of life and personal development, shifting from short-term satisfaction to long-term value [4] - There is a heightened demand for transparency, fairness, and safety in transactions, with consumers expecting better protection of their rights [4][5] Policy Recommendations for Future Consumption Growth - The government should focus on solidifying employment and income foundations, enhancing social security systems, and optimizing the business environment to stabilize expectations and boost consumer confidence [6][7] - Policies should aim to break down structural barriers, enhance consumer rights protection, and improve regulatory efficiency to facilitate consumption [8][9] - Emphasis on expanding service consumption and optimizing supply-demand coordination is essential for future growth [9][10] Overall Economic Outlook - The consumption market in China has significant potential for growth, but structural challenges remain, such as high savings rates and the need to enhance consumer motivation [6][10] - The transition from high savings to high consumption is crucial for creating a virtuous cycle that supports long-term economic stability [10]

Core Insights - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is expected to see record-breaking travel and consumption levels in China, with over 2.19 billion railway passengers and 19.2 million air travelers anticipated, marking a significant increase from last year [1][2] - The total cross-regional movement of people during the 8-day holiday is projected to reach 2.36 billion, averaging about 295 million daily, which is a 3.2% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The holiday is viewed as a "super golden week" that will stimulate domestic demand and unleash consumer potential, with various cultural and tourism activities planned nationwide [2][7] Transportation and Travel - The peak travel day is expected to be October 1, with a single-day passenger flow potentially exceeding 340 million [1] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are implementing measures to enhance transportation capacity and extend service hours to accommodate the expected surge in travelers [2] - Online travel platforms report that many cities are seeing tourism bookings increase by over 50% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in the travel sector [3] International Travel Trends - The average daily inbound and outbound travelers are predicted to surpass 2 million during the holiday, driven by strong cross-border travel demand and the expansion of visa-free policies [4] - Popular destinations for outbound travel include Japan, Thailand, and Southeast Asian countries, with a notable increase in interest for self-driving tours in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [5][6] - The influx of foreign tourists to China is also on the rise, with a 52.1% year-on-year increase in visa-free entries from January to August [6] Economic Impact - The holiday period is seen as a critical test for consumer confidence, with expectations for significant spending across various sectors, including tourism, dining, and entertainment [7] - The contribution of domestic consumption to GDP growth has been substantial, with a focus on service consumption, particularly in cultural and tourism sectors [7] - The government and businesses are optimistic that the holiday will provide a timely boost to the economy, with various initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer experiences and spending [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the need to enhance consumption demand by improving the income levels of low-income groups and increasing their pension benefits, with state-owned capital playing a crucial role in this process [1][2] - The chief economist of Zhongyin International Securities suggests that transferring state-owned capital to social security funds can have an immediate positive impact on consumption and aligns with the long-term direction of economic structural transformation [1] - As of the end of 2024, the value of transferred state-owned equity is projected to be 2.1 trillion yuan, with dividends from transferred enterprises expected to reach 26.422 billion yuan in 2024, accumulating to 111.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Liu Shijin, a vice chairman of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, argues for a shift in the use of state-owned capital earnings towards supporting consumption, especially through enhancing pension levels for low-income groups [2] - The large-scale transfer of state-owned capital to pension funds is seen as a necessary strategy for stimulating consumption and reflects the mission of state-owned capital to serve the high-quality development of the country [2] - The transfer of state-owned capital to pension funds is expected to positively impact the stock market by providing long-term capital, thereby creating a linkage effect that promotes consumption, strengthens social security, and stabilizes the stock market [2]