(1)十五五纲要：2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，两会期间全国人大会议将审查国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划纲要草案，相关中长期改革有望逐步部署、实施。 (2)扩大国内需求，稳定经济增长。按照惯例，在3月5日全国人大开幕会议上，政府工作报告有望提出 2026年工作目标，包括GDP增速、通胀、赤字率目标、货币政策与财政政策安排等。 2月26日，中金发表报告指出，全国政协十四届四次会议和十四届全国人大四次会议分别将于2026年3月 4日和3月5日在北京召开。结合当前的国内外经济增长与政策环境，从资本市场投资角度，该行认为在 两会期间主要关注以下看点： (3)建设全国统一大市场。"十五五"规划建议提出"消除要素获取、资质认定、招标投标、政府采购等方 面壁垒，规范地方政府经济促进行为，破除地方保护和市场分割"。相关行动有望继续推进。 (4)化解重点领域风险。当前房地产行业处于转型期，去库存和化债都是重要课题，今年关注主要城市 尤其是一线城市库存去化进度。 (5)两会期间可能安排及重要事项：结合惯例来看，可能包括政府工作报告、代表、委员和部长通道、 人大议案、政协提案、主题记者会等环节，关注两会期间各部委(如发改 ...

（来源：黑龙江日报） 转自：黑龙江日报 张 超 杨凯晴 坚持"两个毫不动摇"，促进多种所有制经济共同发展。持续深化国资国企改革，完善中国特色现代企业 制度，推动国有资本和国有企业做强做优做大。同时，大力优化民营经济发展环境，破除制约民营企业 公平参与市场竞争的壁垒，依法保护民营企业产权和企业家权益，从制度和法律上落实对各类所有制企 业一视同仁、平等对待的要求。 构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，保障竞争公平有序。深化要素市场化配置改革，消除阻碍劳动力、 资本、技术、数据等要素自由流动的体制障碍。强化反垄断和反不正当竞争，打破地方保护和行政性垄 断，清理和废除妨碍全国统一大市场建设的各项规定。政府当好市场秩序的"裁判员"，而不是直接下场 当"运动员"，通过建立明确的规则和严格的执法，确保所有经营主体在公平的赛场上竞技。 创新宏观经济治理 提升政策效能 现代市场经济运行离不开有效的政府宏观调控。有为政府必须具备高水平宏观经济治理能力，能够灵活 运用各种政策工具，平抑经济波动，引导长期发展。 完善宏观经济政策制定和执行机制，增强宏观政策取向一致性。党的二十届四中全会指出，"加强财 政、货币政策协同""增强宏观政策取向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Economic Annual Report highlights the challenges and opportunities for high-quality development in 2026, emphasizing the need for effective fiscal policies to support economic growth and address existing issues [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Overview - The four key terms for understanding the 2026 fiscal policy are total increase, better structure, improved efficiency, and stronger momentum, indicating a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy [3] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 was set at 4%, an increase of one percentage point from 2024, reflecting a significant rise in overall debt levels compared to previous years [3] Group 2: Spending Structure Optimization - The optimization of spending structure will focus on promoting new productive forces, such as supporting technological innovation and new growth drivers, as well as investing in human development to adapt to changing demographic needs [3] - There is potential for further exploration in effectively allocating funds to meet current spending demands, particularly in areas related to public welfare [3] Group 3: Benefits for Enterprises - The new fiscal policies aim to expand domestic demand and promote investment growth, particularly in the private sector and among small and medium-sized enterprises [4] - Policies such as interest subsidies to lower financing costs and risk-sharing measures are expected to enhance investment returns for enterprises, thereby supporting demand expansion [4] Group 4: Long-term Strategy for Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is viewed as a long-term national strategy, requiring both policy support and deeper reforms to ensure sustainable growth [5] - The relationship between supply and demand is cyclical, where new supply can create new demand, and vice versa, leading to a continuous upward spiral in economic activity [5] Group 5: Enhancing Resident Income - Promoting employment and improving job quality are essential for increasing resident income, which in turn supports consumption and economic growth [6] - Fiscal spending in the social welfare sector contributes to increasing resident income through various transfer payments and support for vulnerable groups [6]

为进一步推动供需在更高水平上实现动态平衡和良性循环，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生 增长的经济发展模式，王昌林指出，2026年，要坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，加快构建现 代化产业体系。要坚持把市场运行的调控点放在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设上，充分激发市场活力。 具体来说，要适应产业转型升级的需要，通过创新不断催生新的供给，催生新的就业岗位。坚持智能 化、绿色化、融合化方向，推动重点产业提质升级，大力培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，深入开展"人 工智能+"行动。要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用，研究设立国家级并购基金，加强政府投资 基金布局规划和投向指导，促进创新创业创造，加快培育和发展新质生产力。 目前，内需已成为拉动我国经济增长的稳定锚。据国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈介绍，2025 年，居民人均可支配收入实际增长5%，与经济增长同步，已经成为内需增长的重要支撑因素。全年内 需对经济增长的贡献率超过67%，其中消费贡献率达到了52%。 为进一步提振内需，周陈表示，下一步国家发展改革委要重点抓好"三个紧密结合"：即惠民生和促消费 紧密结合、"投资于物"和"投资于人"紧密结合、政策支持和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines the strategic direction for China's economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need for a stable yet progressive approach to ensure high-quality economic development and a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Policy Orientation - The conference emphasizes a policy orientation of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," which reflects a methodology for economic work under new circumstances [2]. - It highlights the importance of balancing short-term stability with long-term quality improvements, ensuring that systemic risks are avoided while laying a solid foundation for high-quality development [2][3]. Stability Focus - The core of stability lies in solidifying the economic foundation, focusing on four key areas: stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [3]. - Employment stability is crucial for livelihoods, requiring skill training and support for entrepreneurship, alongside creating high-quality jobs through industrial upgrades [3]. - Enterprises are vital to the market economy, necessitating ongoing support policies to address challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. Progress Focus - Key breakthroughs should be achieved in priority areas through structural optimization to drive development upgrades, focusing on technology innovation and green transformation [4]. - The approach to progress should be gradual and based on stability, with local breakthroughs leading to overall improvements in economic quality and growth [4]. Quality and Efficiency - The unification of quality and efficiency in development emphasizes the need for both economic growth and high-quality development, driven by innovation and structural optimization [5]. - Policies should be forward-looking, targeted, and effective, ensuring that they address real issues faced by businesses and promote efficient execution [6]. Overall Requirements - The relationship between government and market must be handled carefully, with the market playing a decisive role in resource allocation while the government provides necessary regulation [7]. - Balancing domestic and foreign demand is essential for activating development momentum, with domestic demand serving as a stabilizing force and foreign demand as a growth accelerator [8]. - A focus on development and safety is crucial, with the need to enhance resilience against risks through structural optimization and safety measures [9]. Key Tasks for 2026 - The conference outlines eight key tasks, including strengthening domestic markets, fostering new growth drivers, enhancing high-quality development, and promoting multi-field cooperation [12]. - Emphasis is placed on innovation-driven growth, requiring a combination of long-term strategies and immediate actions to cultivate new momentum [14]. - Reform efforts should focus on establishing effective systems and mechanisms to address current challenges and promote balanced development among various stakeholders [15][16].

Group 1 - The National Market Supervision Administration has released a draft guideline for compliance regarding pricing behavior in the automotive industry, aiming to regulate pricing practices among manufacturers and sellers to address issues like price wars, disguised price reductions, and price fraud [1] - The South China Morning Post reported that despite the leadership's emphasis on boosting domestic demand, retail sales data from last month showed the lowest annual growth rate in three years, highlighting ongoing challenges in the market [1] Group 2 - An unnamed official from the Central Financial Committee indicated that recent slowdowns in consumption and investment growth necessitate increased efforts to expand domestic demand [4] - The official also projected that investment and consumption growth will recover next year, suggesting a positive economic outlook with sufficient conditions to support sustained growth in domestic demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to address current economic challenges and promote high-quality development in China for 2025 and beyond [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Investment - The government plans to enhance domestic demand and implement measures to boost consumption, including easing restrictions on service consumption and promoting sectors like silver economy and ice and snow economy [2][5]. - The central government's budget for investment in 2025 is set at 735 billion yuan, an increase of 35 billion yuan from the previous year, with significant growth in equipment purchases noted at 13% year-on-year from January to October [2][3]. - New policy financial tools are expected to play a crucial role in funding key projects, with 500 billion yuan allocated as project capital, significantly leveraging investment in transportation, urban infrastructure, and AI [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Reforms and Market Integration - The government aims to foster new growth drivers by enhancing collaboration between education, technology, and industry, and by promoting high-quality development in key industrial chains [5]. - Efforts will be made to eliminate barriers to a unified national market, improve the business environment, and clear overdue payments to enterprises by the end of 2025 [5]. - The strategy includes expanding high-level opening-up, enhancing trade in intermediate goods, and attracting foreign investment in advanced manufacturing and modern services [5]. Group 3: Green Transition and Carbon Management - The government will prioritize a comprehensive green transition, implementing dual control over carbon emissions and focusing on the elimination of high-energy-consuming projects [6]. - There will be an emphasis on the innovation and application of green low-carbon technologies, alongside improved resource management and energy efficiency [6].

■中国经济时报记者 孙兆 岁末谋篇，纲举目张。中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年 经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。这一部署为"十五五"规划开局之年的经济工作锚定了航向，也给 即将召开的中央经济工作会议定下了基调。 接受中国经济时报记者采访的业内人士表示，当前，以科技创新引领产业升级、推动消费从"恢复性增 长"向"可持续扩大"转型、深化改革扩大开放等议题，已成为市场关注的核心焦点。从高技术制造业的 加速成长到服务消费的稳步扩容，再到重点领域的改革推进，一系列政策信号与经济数据正交织成未来 发展的清晰脉络，不断彰显中国经济的韧性与活力。 01 产业双轮驱动 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确提出要因地制宜发展新质生产 力。此次中央政治局会议指出，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展。在经济结构 转型的关键期，如何平衡传统产业升级与新兴产业、未来产业培育，实现"稳存量"与"扩增量"的有机统 一，成为政策制定的重要考量。 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任何代欣对中国经济时报记者表示，传统产业不仅贡献着 GDP，更支撑着就 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Directions - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and supporting the construction of a strong domestic market through increased tax, social security, and transfer payments to boost consumer spending [1][3] - It highlights the need for high-level technological self-reliance and innovation, focusing on strengthening investment in technology and supporting key core technology breakthroughs [1][4] - The article discusses the necessity of optimizing the tax structure and improving the relationship between central and local finances to enhance fiscal sustainability and support local governments [4][5] Group 2: Employment and Social Welfare - The article stresses the priority of employment, supporting enterprises in maintaining and expanding jobs, and addressing structural employment issues [3] - It calls for improvements in education quality and accessibility, as well as strengthening the social safety net for vulnerable populations [3] - The article mentions the importance of enhancing public health services and the capacity of grassroots medical services [3] Group 3: Debt Management - The article outlines the need to prevent and resolve local government debt risks, emphasizing the importance of sustainable fiscal development [4] - It suggests implementing a comprehensive debt management strategy, including the replacement of hidden debts and strict accountability for violations [4][5] - The article proposes optimizing debt replacement methods based on the nature of the projects and their expected returns [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The iron ore market showed a rising trend on Friday and in the night session. However, the overall market is affected by multiple factors. On the demand side, the real - estate investment and related steel - using indicators in the black building materials industry are deteriorating, and the domestic demand for steel is weak. The decline in crude steel and pig iron production also has a negative impact on iron ore demand. On the supply side, the production of five major steel products and inventory have decreased, and the inventory of imported iron ore in ports and steel mills has increased. Considering these factors, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate, and short - term band operations within a certain range are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore prices rose on Friday and continued to rise in the night session [1]. Important Information - Central Bank's Tao Ling proposed to restrict the "involution - type competition" in the financial industry and maintain a reasonable profit margin [1]. - The National Bureau of Statistics stated that it is necessary to continue to expand domestic demand and optimize the market competition environment to promote a reasonable recovery of prices [1]. - In October, China's automobile production was 3.279 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. From January to October, the national real - estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% [1]. Market Logic - Demand side: In the first 10 months, the real - estate investment growth rate continued to decline, and the growth rates of new construction, construction, and completion of houses continued to drop. The steel - using indicators of the black building materials industry deteriorated. The narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate was - 0.1%, the first negative value since 2021. The manufacturing investment growth rate dropped to 2.7%, the lowest level since 2021. The domestic demand for steel was weak. The year - on - year growth rate of crude steel production continued to decline, and pig iron production decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, which was negative for iron ore demand [1]. - Supply side: The production of five major steel products and inventory decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in ports and steel mills increased. Affected by the lifting of production restrictions in some areas of Hebei, the daily output of molten iron increased by 2.66 million tons week - on - week. Recently, more building material steel mills resumed production, which was positive for iron ore demand [1]. Trading Strategy - Short - term band operations within a range are recommended. For the main 2601 contract, the pressure level is 833, and the support level is 750 [1].