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南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250730
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 03:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices recently rose and then fell. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and increased copper demand expectations from the Yajiang Hydropower Station project. However, the short - term impact of these two factors on copper should be limited. The increase may be due to funds overflowing from other sectors. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, copper prices may decline slightly. This week is a macro super - week with significant events that will cause large price fluctuations in the last week of July [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 78,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,840 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 78,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan (-0.2%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 78,820 yuan/ton with no daily change. The LME copper 3M price is 9,803 dollars/ton, up 40.5 dollars (0.41%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.12 with no daily change [2][5][7]. - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 79,025 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-0.06%); Shanghai Wumaomao is 78,985 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan (-0.15%); Guangdong Nanchu is 78,890 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 79,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.19%) [9]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4][6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the over - increase in copper prices caused by the anti - involution event [6]. Copper Inventory Data - **SHFE Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 18,083 tons, up 251 tons (1.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 3,313 tons, down 1,354 tons (-29.01%) [15]. - **LME Copper Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons (0.18%); the registered warehouse receipts are 108,225 tons, down 1,900 tons (-1.73%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 19,400 tons, up 2,125 tons (12.3%) [17]. - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 253,431 tons, up 9,650 tons (3.96%); the registered warehouse receipts are 109,453 tons, up 1,404 tons (0.36%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 143,978 tons, up 2,223 tons (1.57%) [20]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 316.42 yuan/ton, down 25.16 yuan (-7.37%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.75 dollars/ton with no daily change [21].
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250718
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:25
Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The copper market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both利多 and利空 factors.利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies and a decrease in LME inventory levels, while利空 factors involve the volatility of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [3][4][5] Detailed Summary by Section Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 77,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.99%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.8% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 77,840 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract is 77,850 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract is 77,790 yuan/ton with no change; the LME Copper 3M is 9,637 dollars/ton, down 20.5 dollars (-0.21%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, up 0.02 (0.25%) [7] - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (0.08%); Shanghai Wumao is 78,040 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-0.08%); Guangdong Nanchu is 77,990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (-0.05%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 78,120 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan (-0.09%) [9] Copper Inventory Data - **SHFE Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 50,242 tons, up 109 tons (0.22%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 10,236 tons with no change [15] - **LME Copper Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,150 tons, up 1,150 tons (0.95%); the European inventory is 31,150 tons, down 150 tons (-0.48%); the Asian inventory is 89,850 tons, up 10,675 tons (13.48%); the North American inventory is 0 tons [17] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 239,435 tons, up 10,781 tons (4.71%); the registered warehouse receipts are 107,011 tons, down 6,846 tons (-1%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 132,424 tons, up 2,256 tons (1.73%) [19] Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 1.55 yuan/ton, up 219.72 yuan (-99.3%); the copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 dollars/ton, up 0.08 dollars (-0.18%) [20]
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250717
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 11:52
Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: July 17, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 77,980 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility: 10.30%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 15.0% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: - Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton - Sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase: - Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations - Global demand reduction due to tariff policies - The Fed keeping interest rates high - The US dollar index hovering at a low level - Increased expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main - contract | yuan/ton | 77,980 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous - 1 | yuan/ton | 77,970 | - 120 | - 0.15% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous - 3 | yuan/ton | 77,900 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,637 | - 20.5 | - 0.21% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.13 | - 0.03 | - 0.37% | [7] Spot Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,060 | 65 | 0.08% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 78,040 | - 60 | - 0.08% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 77,990 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,120 | - 70 | - 0.09% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 95 | - 40 | - 29.63% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 70 | 10 | 16.67% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 55 | - 15 | - 21.43% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 135 | - 10 | - 6.9% | [9] 5. Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread Tax - included | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 784.57 | 240 | 44.07% | | Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 1481.25 | 2.4 | 0.16% | | Price advantage | yuan/ton | - 696.68 | 237.6 | - 25.43% | [11] Tax - excluded | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 5425 | 240 | 4.63% | | Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 6121.88 | 16.66 | 0.27% | | Price advantage | yuan/ton | - 696.88 | 223.34 | - 24.27% | [12] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories SHFE Warehouse Receipts | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 50,242 | 109 | 0.22% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | tons | 10,236 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | tons | 14,637 | 170 | 1.18% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total duty - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 50,242 | 109 | 0.22% | [15] LME Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | tons | 121,000 | 10,525 | 9.53% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | tons | 31,300 | 0 | 0% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | tons | 79,175 | 850 | 1.09% | | LME copper inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 108,675 | 10,825 | 11.06% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 12,325 | - 300 | - 2.38% | [17] COMEX Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | tons | 239,435 | 10,781 | 4.71% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 107,011 | 6,846 | - 1% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 132,424 | 2,256 | 1.73% | [19] 7. Copper Import Profit and Processing | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | yuan/ton | - 221.27 | - 90.51 | 69.22% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 43.25 | 0 | 0% | [20]
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250710
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:40
Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 78,400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 11.41%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 21.2% [2] Copper Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Strategy: Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Strategy: Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Important News - The copper market fundamentals remain stable [3] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations [5] - Global demand reduction due to tariff policies [6] - The Fed maintains high interest rates [6] - Low - level hovering of the US dollar index [8] - Increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts [8] Copper Futures Disk Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,400 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,400 | - 1220 | - 1.53% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,000 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9665 | - 119 | - 1.22% | | Shanghai - LME Ratio | Ratio | 8.06 | - 0.03 | - 0.37% | [7] Copper Spot Data | Spot | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,190 | - 605 | - 0.76% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 79,165 | - 580 | - 0.73% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 79,160 | - 540 | - 0.68% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,360 | - 550 | - 0.69% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 70 | - 15 | - 17.65% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium | yuan/ton | - 15 | - 20 | - 400% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | yuan/ton | 50 | 0 | 0% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 55 | 0 | 0% | [9] Copper Scrap Spread Data Tax - included - Current scrap spread: 1031.28 yuan/ton, down 612.23 yuan/ton (- 37.25%) - Reasonable scrap spread: 1490.1 yuan/ton, down 8.25 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) - Price advantage: - 458.82 yuan/ton, down 603.98 yuan/ton (- 416.08%) [10] Tax - excluded - Current scrap spread: 5710 yuan/ton, down 625 yuan/ton (- 9.87%) - Reasonable scrap spread: 6183.29 yuan/ton, down 57.26 yuan/ton (- 0.92%) - Price advantage: - 473.29 yuan/ton, down 567.74 yuan/ton (- 601.1%) [11] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,336 | 2227 | 11.65% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 4483 | 1304 | 41.02% | | SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 8466 | - 174 | - 2.01% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,336 | 2227 | 11.65% | [14] LME | LME Copper Inventory | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 107,125 | 4625 | 4.51% | | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 31,225 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 71,275 | 5100 | 7.71% | | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Registered Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 68,875 | 3475 | 5.31% | | Total LME Cancelled Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 38,250 | 1150 | 3.1% | [16] COMEX | COMEX Copper Inventory | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 221,788 | 10579 | 5.01% | | Total COMEX Registered Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 100,053 | - 9197 | - 0.24% | | Total COMEX Cancelled Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 121,735 | 570 | 0.47% | [18] Copper Import and Processing Data - Copper import profit and loss: - 679.37 yuan/ton, down 465.03 yuan/ton (- 40.64%) - Copper concentrate TC: - 43.33 US dollars/ton, no change [19]
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250708
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 03:41
Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 79,270 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.97%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: With a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: With a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] - Bullish factors: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation and a decrease in LME inventory levels [4] - Bearish factors: Tariff policy fluctuations, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper main contract: 79,270 yuan/ton, with no daily change (0%) - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 79,270 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan (- 0.58%) - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,870 yuan/ton, with no daily change (0%) - LME Copper 3M: 9,852 US dollars/ton, down 99.5 US dollars (- 1%) - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.08, up 0.04 (0.5%) [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 79,885 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan (- 0.81%) - Shanghai Wumaotrade: 79,850 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan (- 0.71%) - Guangdong Nanchu: 79,790 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan (- 0.77%) - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 79,980 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.74%) [9] Premium and Discount Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous copper spot premium: 95 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 17.39%) - Shanghai Wumaotrade copper spot premium: 10 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (- 71.43%) - Guangdong Nanchu copper spot premium: 50 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (- 33.33%) - Yangtze Non - ferrous copper spot premium: 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 21.05%) [9] Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference Tax - included - Current scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 1,507.13 yuan/ton, down 198.08 yuan (- 11.62%) - Reasonable scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 1,498.05 yuan/ton, down 7.3 yuan (- 0.48%) - Price advantage: 9.08 yuan/ton, down 190.78 yuan (- 95.46%) [10] Tax - excluded - Current scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 6,205 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan (- 3.57%) - Reasonable scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 6,238.47 yuan/ton, down 50.66 yuan (- 0.81%) - Price advantage: - 33.47 yuan/ton, down 179.34 yuan (- 122.95%) [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) - Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 21,682 tons, down 625 tons (- 2.8%) - Total International Copper warehouse receipts: 3,404 tons, with no change (0%) - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai: 11,616 tons, down 500 tons (- 4.13%) - Total bonded Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 0 tons, with no change (- 100%) - Total duty - paid Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 21,682 tons, down 625 tons (- 2.8%) [14] LME - Total LME copper inventory: 97,400 tons, up 2,125 tons (2.23%) - LME copper inventory in Europe: 31,225 tons, down 50 tons (- 0.16%) - LME copper inventory in Asia: 64,050 tons, up 1,000 tons (1.59%) - Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts: 60,525 tons, down 800 tons (- 1.3%) - Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 36,875 tons, up 2,925 tons (8.62%) [16] COMEX - Total COMEX copper inventory: 220,954 tons, up 13,063 tons (6.28%) - Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts: 102,553 tons, down 6,004 tons (- 4.13%) - Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 118,401 tons, up 12,201 tons (11.49%) [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing - Copper import profit: - 1,146.49 yuan/ton, down 186.63 yuan (19.44%) - Copper concentrate TC: - 43.33 US dollars/ton, with no change (0%) [19]
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250703
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 03:06
Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 80,540 yuan/ton - Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility: 9.38% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 10.7% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Situation: High finished product inventory, worried about price decline - Spot Exposure: Long - Strategy: Short Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract (75% at around 82,000 yuan/ton), Sell Call Options (25% when volatility is relatively stable) - Hedging Tools: Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract, CU2508C82000 - Buying/Selling Direction: Sell Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Spot Exposure: Short - Strategy: Long Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract (75% at around 75,000 yuan/ton) - Hedging Tools: Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract - Buying/Selling Direction: Buy [2] Important News - The fundamentals remain stable [3] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino-US tariff policies - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals - Decrease in global demand due to tariff policies - The Fed maintains high interest rates - Low dollar index - Increased expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: 80,540 yuan/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: 80,540 yuan/ton, -100 change, -0.12% change rate - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: 80,050 yuan/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate - LME Copper 3M: 10,010 dollars/ton, 67 change, 0.67% change rate - Shanghai-London Ratio: 7.96, 0.01 change, 0.13% change rate [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Nonferrous 1 Copper: 80,990 yuan/ton, 785 change, 0.98% change rate - Shanghai Wumaohui: 80,890 yuan/ton, 730 change, 0.91% change rate - Guangdong Nanchu: 80,880 yuan/ton, 770 change, 0.96% change rate - Yangtze Nonferrous: 81,050 yuan/ton, 690 change, 0.86% change rate - Shanghai Nonferrous Premium/Discount: 120 yuan/ton, -80 change, -40% change rate - Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount: 90 yuan/ton, -50 change, -35.71% change rate - Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount: 130 yuan/ton, -30 change, -18.75% change rate - Yangtze Nonferrous Premium/Discount: 155 yuan/ton, -70 change, -31.11% change rate [9] Copper Scrap Price Difference - Current Scrap Price Difference (Tax-included): 2,402.98 yuan/ton, 241.7 change, 11.18% change rate - Reasonable Scrap Price Difference (Tax-included): 1,510.2 yuan/ton, 8.8 change, 0.59% change rate - Price Advantage (Tax-included): 892.78 yuan/ton, 232.9 change, 35.29% change rate - Current Scrap Price Difference (Tax-excluded): 7,120 yuan/ton, 280 change, 4.09% change rate - Reasonable Scrap Price Difference (Tax-excluded): 6,322.79 yuan/ton, 61.07 change, 0.98% change rate - Price Advantage (Tax-excluded): 797.21 yuan/ton, 218.93 change, 37.86% change rate [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,097 tons, 324 change, 1.31% change rate - Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts: 2,403 tons, -100 change, -4% change rate - Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai: 14,905 tons, 101 change, 0.68% change rate - Total Bonded Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 0 tons, 0 change, -100% change rate - Total Tax-paid Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,097 tons, 324 change, 1.31% change rate [14] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME Copper Inventory: 90,625 tons, -625 change, -0.68% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in Europe: 31,350 tons, -125 change, -0.4% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in Asia: 59,900 tons, 750 change, 1.27% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in North America: 0 tons, 0 change, -100% change rate - Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts: 57,700 tons, -1,575 change, -2.66% change rate - Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 32,925 tons, 950 change, 2.97% change rate [16] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX Copper Inventory: 212,139 tons, 7,823 change, 3.83% change rate - Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts: 109,313 tons, 10,956 change, 0.06% change rate - Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 102,826 tons, 867 change, 0.85% change rate [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing - Copper Import Profit and Loss: -1,128.13 yuan/ton, 356.71 change, -24.02% change rate - Copper Concentrate TC: -43.57 dollars/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate [19]
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250702
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 04:09
Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 80,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.54%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 11.2% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure), suggest selling 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and selling 25% of the call option CU2508C82000 when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure), suggest buying 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. News and Factors Important News - The copper fundamentals remain stable [3] Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing and a decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and an increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper main contract: 80,640 yuan/ton, no daily change (0%); Shanghai Copper consecutive first contract: 80,640 yuan/ton, up 770 yuan (0.96%); Shanghai Copper consecutive third contract: 80,100 yuan/ton, no daily change (0%); LME Copper 3M: 9,943 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars (0.66%); Shanghai - London ratio: 7.95, up 0.04 (0.51%) [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 80,205 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan (0.27%); Shanghai Wumaotrade: 80,160 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (0.28%); Guangdong Nanchu: 80,110 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (0.28%); Yangtze Non - ferrous: 80,360 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan (0.34%) [9] 5. Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 2,161.28 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.41%); reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,501.4 yuan/ton, up 0.3 yuan (0.02%); price advantage (tax - included): 659.88 yuan/ton, up 29.7 yuan (4.71%) [11] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 25,851 tons, up 505 tons (1.99%); total International Copper warehouse receipts: 2,503 tons, no change (0%) [14] Inventories - LME copper inventory: total 91,250 tons, up 625 tons (0.69%); COMEX copper inventory: total 211,209 tons, up 7,874 tons (3.87%) [16][18] 7. Copper Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 1,484.84 yuan/ton, down 623.83 yuan (- 29.58%); copper concentrate TC: - 43.57 US dollars/ton, no change (0%) [19]
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250701
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:23
Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 79,870 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 9.17%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 9.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Strategy: Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2508C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - Scenario: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Strategy: Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] News and Factors - Fundamental Situation: Stable [3] - Bullish Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing and lower inventory levels [4] - Bearish Factors: Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed keeping high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and increased Fed rate - cut expectations [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: 79,870 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: 79,870 yuan/ton, daily change - 50, daily change rate - 0.06% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: 79,440 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - LME Copper 3M: 9,878 dollars/ton, daily change - 1, daily change rate - 0.01% - Shanghai - London Ratio: 7.91, daily change 0.08, daily change rate 1.02% [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper: 79,990 yuan/ton, daily change - 135, daily change rate - 0.17% - Shanghai Wumaotrade: 79,935 yuan/ton, daily change - 225, daily change rate - 0.28% - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 79,890 yuan/ton, daily change - 290, daily change rate - 0.36% - Yangtze Non - Ferrous: 80,090 yuan/ton, daily change - 210, daily change rate - 0.26% [9] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread - Current Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 2,131.28 yuan/ton, daily change 166.39, daily change rate 8.47% - Reasonable Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 1,501.1 yuan/ton, daily change 0.6, daily change rate 0.04% - Tax - included Price Advantage: 630.18 yuan/ton, daily change 165.79, daily change rate 35.7% - Current Tax - Excluded Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 6,810 yuan/ton, daily change 160, daily change rate 2.41% - Reasonable Tax - Excluded Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 6,259.63 yuan/ton, daily change 4.16, daily change rate 0.07% - Tax - Excluded Price Advantage: 550.37 yuan/ton, daily change 155.84, daily change rate 39.5% [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,851 tons, daily change 505, daily change rate 1.99% - Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts: 2,503 tons, daily change 1,004, daily change rate 66.98% [14] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME Copper Inventory: 90,625 tons, change - 650, change rate - 0.71% - European LME Copper Inventory: 31,550 tons, change - 2,625, change rate - 7.68% - Asian LME Copper Inventory: 59,725 tons, change 825, change rate 1.4% - North American LME Copper Inventory: 0 tons, change 0, change rate - 100% [16] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX Copper Inventory: 209,281 tons, weekly change 8,084, weekly change rate 4.02% - Total COMEX Registered Warehouse Receipts: 110,017 tons, weekly change 10,551, weekly change rate 1.34% - Total COMEX Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 99,264 tons, weekly change - 70, weekly change rate - 0.07% [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - Copper Import Profit and Loss: - 2,108.67 yuan/ton, daily change 881.22, daily change rate - 29.47% - Copper Concentrate TC: - 43.57 dollars/ton, daily change - 0.44, daily change rate 1.02% [19]
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250627
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 07:55
Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 27, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both利多 factors, such as the easing of Sino-US tariff policies and reduced inventory levels, and利空 factors, including the volatility of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed maintaining high - interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and an increased expectation of Fed rate cuts [3][4][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,890 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.61%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 6.9% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2508C80000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2]. Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 78,890 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 210 yuan to 78,890 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase. The Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract was 78,520 yuan/ton with no change. The LME Copper 3M contract rose 169 dollars to 9,896 dollars/ton, a 1.74% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.95, up 0.05 or 0.63% [7]. Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous were 78,940 yuan/ton, 78,740 yuan/ton, 78,860 yuan/ton, and 78,950 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 360 yuan (0.46%), 180 yuan (0.23%), 270 yuan (0.34%), and 210 yuan (0.27%) [9]. Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt Data - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipt was 23,696 tons, up 2,226 tons or 10.37%. The total international copper warehouse receipt was 1,601 tons, down 302 tons or - 15.87% [14]. Inventory Data - The total LME copper inventory was 93,075 tons, down 400 tons or - 0.43%. The COMEX copper inventory was 206,135 tons, up 7,730 tons or 3.9% [16][18]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss was - 2,812.05 yuan/ton, down 289.76 yuan or 11.49%. The copper concentrate TC was - 43.13 dollars/ton, up 0.67 dollars or - 1.53% [19].
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250626
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 04:12
Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 78,810 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.58%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 6.7% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: - Strategy: Short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton, and sell 25% of call options (CU2508C80000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase: - Strategy: Long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Important News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] 利多因素 - Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4] 利空因素 - Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5][6] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,810 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,680 | 200 | 0.25% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,270 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,664 | - 30.5 | - 0.31% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.9 | - 0.06 | - 0.75% | [6] Spot Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,580 | 165 | 0.21% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 78,560 | 140 | 0.18% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 78,590 | 160 | 0.2% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,740 | 160 | 0.2% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 30 | - 10 | - 25% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | - 20 | - 40 | - 200% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 25 | - 5 | - 16.67% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 70 | - 15 | - 17.65% | [7] 5. Copper Scrap - Refined Spread Tax - included - Current scrap - refined spread: 1,099.57 yuan/ton, daily change 80 yuan, daily change rate 7.85% - Reasonable scrap - refined spread: 1,484.4 yuan/ton, daily change 0.8 yuan, daily change rate 0.05% - Price advantage: - 384.83 yuan/ton, daily change 79.2 yuan, daily change rate - 17.07% Tax - excluded - Current scrap - refined spread: 5,740 yuan/ton, daily change 80 yuan, daily change rate 1.41% - Reasonable scrap - refined spread: 6,143.74 yuan/ton, daily change 5.56 yuan, daily change rate 0.09% - Price advantage: - 403.74 yuan/ton, daily change 74.44 yuan, daily change rate - 15.57% [9] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,470 | - 955 | - 4.26% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 1,903 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 14,033 | - 904 | - 6.05% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,470 | - 955 | - 4.26% | [12] LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 93,475 | - 1,200 | - 1.27% | | European LME Copper Inventory | tons | 36,525 | - 825 | - 2.21% | | Asian LME Copper Inventory | tons | 58,150 | - 375 | - 0.64% | | North American LME Copper Inventory | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 56,250 | 1,725 | 3.16% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 37,225 | - 2,925 | - 7.29% | [14] COMEX Copper Inventory (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 204,316 | 6,955 | 3.52% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 98,357 | - 11,008 | - 0.89% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 105,959 | 1,865 | 1.79% | [16] 7. Copper Import Profit and Processing | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | - 2,522.29 | - 1,315.91 | 109.08% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 43.8 | 0 | 0% | [17]