银行间债券市场杠杆率
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流动性和机构行为周度观察:央行呵护流动性,资金面有望延续宽松-20250618
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-18 04:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report From June 9 - 13, 2025, the central bank slightly net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase but announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase on June 16, showing its care for liquidity. The money market was loose with DR001 breaking below 1.40% during the week. From June 9 - 15, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields declined, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. Although there will be multiple tests on the money market in mid - to - late June, such as large NCD maturities, tax payment disturbances, MLF maturities, and cross - quarter funds, the money market is expected to remain relatively loose due to the central bank's care [2][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Money Market - **Central Bank's Liquidity Injection**: From June 9 - 13, 2025, the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan and withdrew 930.9 billion yuan through reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. 858.2 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature from June 16 - 20. The central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase on June 16, resulting in a net injection of 20 billion yuan in June. On June 17, 182 billion yuan of MLF will mature. June 16 is the tax declaration deadline, followed by 2 days of tax payment disturbances [6]. - **Money Market Conditions**: From June 9 - 13, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.38% and 1.43% respectively, down 3.4 and 2.7 basis points compared to June 2 - 6. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.56% respectively, down 3.0 and 0.9 basis points. From June 9 - 12, DR001 broke below the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of 1.40% [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From June 9 - 15, the government bond net payment scale was about 6.3 billion yuan, a decrease of about 69 billion yuan compared to June 2 - 8. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds was about 41.5 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about - 35.1 billion yuan. From June 16 - 22, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 433.4 billion yuan, with treasury bonds at about 265.9 billion yuan and local government bonds at about 167.5 billion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The money market in June is expected to remain stable. Despite multiple challenges in mid - to - late June, the money market is expected to remain relatively loose because of the central bank's care for liquidity [8]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield Changes**: As of June 13, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.6327% and 1.6355% respectively, basically unchanged and down 2 basis points compared to June 6. The 1 - year NCD yield was 1.6700%, down 1 basis point compared to June 6 [9]. - **Maturity Scale**: From June 9 - 15, the net financing of NCDs was about - 162.3 billion yuan. From June 16 - 22, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 1.0216 trillion yuan, continuing the large - scale maturity trend [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From June 9 - 13, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.03%, compared with 107.66% from June 3 - 6. On June 13 and June 6, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.10% and 107.68% respectively [10].
流动性和机构行为周度观察:资金价格显著回落-20250512
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-12 08:12
Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoint From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the central bank conducted net repurchase of reverse repurchase funds. With the central bank's announcement of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the overall funding rate declined. From May 5 to May 11, government bonds had a small net repayment, the net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, and the maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly. The leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market continued to be low, and the net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks recovered. It is estimated that government bonds will have a net financing of 64.53 billion yuan from May 12 to May 18 [2]. 2. Summary by Section 2.1 Funding Side - The central bank conducted net repurchase of reverse repurchase funds. From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase investment was 83.61 billion yuan and the repurchase was 161.78 billion yuan, with a total net repurchase of 78.17 billion yuan. From May 13 to May 16, 2025, 83.61 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases and 12.5 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature [7]. - After the central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the funding rate declined. From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.60% and 1.64% respectively, down 3.2 and 3.1 basis points compared with April 27 - April 30, 2025. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.64% and 1.67% respectively, down 12.1 and 11.4 basis points compared with April 27 - April 30, 2025 [7]. 2.2 Government Bonds - From May 5 to May 11, 2025, government bonds had a net repayment of about 1.23 billion yuan (on the payment date basis), about 13.34 billion yuan more than that from April 28 to May 4, 2025. Among them, treasury bonds had a net repayment of about 7.54 billion yuan, and local government bonds had a net financing of about 6.31 billion yuan. It is estimated that government bonds will have a net financing of 64.53 billion yuan from May 12 to May 18, 2025, including about 48.167 billion yuan for treasury bonds and about 16.365 billion yuan for local government bonds [8]. 2.3 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly. As of May 9, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.5650%, 1.6050%, and 1.6600% respectively, down 7, 13, and 8 basis points compared with April 30, 2025 [9]. - The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased. From May 5 to May 11, 2025, the net financing amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 33.44 billion yuan, compared with a net repayment of about 8.6 billion yuan from April 28 to May 4, 2025. It is estimated that the maturity repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit from May 12 to May 18, 2025, will be 58.25 billion yuan, slightly higher than this week's 52.36 billion yuan, and the refinancing pressure will increase slightly [9]. 2.4 Institutional Behavior - The leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market continued to be at a low level. From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.40%, compared with 107.49% from April 27 to April 30, 2025. Among them, the calculated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market on May 9, 2025, and April 30, 2025, were both about 107.31% [10]. - The net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks further recovered. In terms of the structure of net financing of pledged reverse repurchases, on May 9, 2025, the net financing of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks was about 3.26 trillion yuan, compared with about 2.89 trillion yuan on April 30, 2025 [10]. 3. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided in the report.
流动性和机构行为周度观察:跨月资金利率整体平稳-20250506
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-05 23:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the central bank made a net capital injection, and the cross - month funding rates remained generally stable. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing scale of government bonds increased; inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) turned to net repayment, and most of the NCD maturity yields declined; the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks continued the recovery trend. It is expected that government bonds will have a net repayment of 11.23 billion yuan from May 5 to May 11, 2025 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Funding Situation - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 124.03 billion yuan and the withdrawal was 50.45 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 73.58 billion yuan. From May 5 to May 9, 2025, reverse repurchases in the open market worth 161.78 billion yuan will mature. In April 2025, the outright reverse repurchase injection was 120 billion yuan, with a maturity volume of 170 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 50 billion yuan [6]. - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.63% and 1.67% respectively, down 1.7 basis points and up 0.1 basis points compared with April 21 - April 25, 2025; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.76% and 1.79% respectively, up 7.6 basis points and 7.2 basis points compared with April 21 - April 25, 2025. During the cross - month period, the central bank made a net capital injection to support liquidity, and the overnight funding rate rose significantly only on April 30, the last trading day of April [6]. Government Bonds - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing amount of government bonds was about 12.11 billion yuan, an increase of about 20.12 billion yuan compared with April 21 - April 27, 2025. Among them, the net financing amount of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of local government bonds was about 12.11 billion yuan. From May 5 to May 11, 2025, the net repayment amount of government bonds is expected to be about 11.23 billion yuan, including about 17.54 billion yuan of net repayment of treasury bonds and about 6.31 billion yuan of net financing of local government bonds [7]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of April 30, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M NCDs were 1.6352% and 1.7300% respectively, down 6 basis points and 1 basis point compared with April 25, 2025; the maturity yield of 1Y NCDs was 1.7350%, down 2 basis points compared with April 25, 2025 [8]. - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net repayment amount of NCDs was about 8.6 billion yuan, while from April 21 to April 27, 2025, it was a net financing of about 17.71 billion yuan. From May 5 to May 11, 2025, the maturity repayment amount of NCDs is expected to be 52.36 billion yuan, higher than this week's 33.53 billion yuan, and the refinancing pressure will increase slightly [8]. Institutional Behaviors - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.49%, compared with the calculated average of 107.19% from April 21 to April 25, 2025 [9]. - In terms of the structure of net financing through pledged reverse repurchases, on April 30, 2025, the net financing amount of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks was about 2.89 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.7% of the total net financing amount; on April 25, 2025, the net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks was about 2.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.3% of the total net financing amount [9].