丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 资金面先紧后松，8 月 MLF 净投放 3000 亿 元——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日，央行 7 天逆回购净投放资金，国库定存投放 1200 亿元、到期 2200 亿元，同时公告将于 25 日开展 6000 亿元 MLF 投放；税期走款影响下资金面先紧后松。 2025 年 8 月 18 日-8 月 24 日，政府债净缴款规模减少，同业存单到期收益率整体上行，银行 间债券市场杠杆率均值下行。2025 年 8 月 25 日-8 月 31 日，政府债预计净缴款 2115 亿元， 同业存单到期规模约为 7518 亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary2] 资金面 8 月 MLF 净投放 3000 亿元。2025 年 8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日，央行 7 天逆回购投放 20770 亿 元、到期 7118 亿元，国库现金定存投放 1200 亿元、到期 2200 亿元，合计净投放 12652 亿 元。周内节奏来看，8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report It is expected that with the combined cooperation of the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase and outright reverse repurchase, the funds' volatility during the tax period may be small. The past week saw a slight tightening of funds, and in the coming week, attention should be paid to the disturbances of government bond net payments and tax period outflows. The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased. In the future, the disturbances from funds and the equity market to the bond market will increase, and recently, the market may return to active bond trading to avoid liquidity risks during adjustments [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (7/7 - 7/11), the central bank's open - market operations led to a net liquidity withdrawal of 2265 billion yuan. As of 7/11, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 4257 billion yuan, significantly lower than that on 6/30 but still higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (7/14 - 7/18), the central bank's reverse repurchase will mature 4257 billion yuan, with a relatively small maturity scale evenly distributed daily. In July, the central bank has 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and outright reverse repurchase maturing, including 3000 billion yuan of MLF, 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase, and 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase [9][10]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the government bond net payment was 2961 billion yuan, with 1849 billion yuan for national bonds and 1112 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected government bond net payment is 3985 billion yuan, with 2761 billion yuan for national bonds and 1224 billion yuan for local bonds. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday and Tuesday. As of 7/11, the net financing progress of national bonds is 56.7%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 2.89 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 51.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2.51 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 89.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2041 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds accelerated in the second week of July, and the issuance pressure is relatively large in August and September of the third quarter [17][18][20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market - In the past week, bill interest rates showed a divergent trend, with the 3 - month bill interest rate rising and the 6 - month bill interest rate falling. Seasonally, the current bill interest rate trend is still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, indicating that the recovery of credit demand remains slow [25]. 3.1.4 Funds Review - Funds tightened slightly, showing a trend of first loosening, then slightly tightening, and finally relaxing. The funds were the loosest at the opening on 7/7 and the tightest at the opening on 7/10. Most fund interest rates increased, and the term and market stratifications mostly converged [27][30][31]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - In the past week (7/7 - 7/13), the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 4271 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 833.9 billion yuan. The issuance scale increased compared with the previous week, but the net financing scale declined. As of 7/13, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was 1.73 trillion yuan. The issuance weighted term decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale is 8028 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure is relatively large from Tuesday to Friday [50][55]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Secondary Market Transactions - The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has decreased. Different types of bonds have different buying and selling situations among various institutions. For example, large banks' purchases of short - term national bonds have increased, and the net buying of credit bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased [61]. 3.2.2 Institutional Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has oscillated upwards. The 10 - day moving average of the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds on 7/11 was 4.04 years, up from 3.96 years on 7/4. The secondary market trading duration of credit bonds showed mixed trends, with the 5 - day moving average of urban investment bond trading duration rising and that of Tier 2 capital bond trading duration falling [59][64]. 3.2.3 Institutional Leverage - The calculated bond market leverage ratio in the past week was 107.65%, a significant decrease compared with the previous week (107.96%) [66].

[[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 7 月 13 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | 如何看待税期前银行融出的持续回落 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250713 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com 3如何看待税期前银行融出的持续回落 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 13 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行公开市场净回笼流动性 2265 亿元。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 央行呵护流动性，资金面有望延续宽松 ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月 9 日-6 月 13 日，央行 7 天逆回购小幅净回笼资金，同时公告将在 6 月 16 日进行 4000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，体现央行对流动性的呵护态度；资金面较为宽松，DR001 周内 向下突破 1.40%。2025 年 6 月 9 日-6 月 15 日，政府债净缴款规模下降，同业存单到期收益率 多数下行，银行间债券市场杠杆率有所提升。2025 年 6 月 16 日-6 月 22 日政府债预计净缴款 4334 亿元，同业存单到期规模约为 10216 亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 央行呵护流动性，资金面有望延续宽松 2] ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 [Tabl ...