Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations during the quarter - end period. MLF was incrementally renewed. The inter - bank funding market fluctuated significantly due to the quarter - end effect [2][6]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased from September 22 - 28, 2025, and the majority of inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose. The net financing of NCDs turned negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both marginally increased [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Funding Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 2594 billion yuan, 14 - day reverse repurchase was 9000 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. On September 29 and 30, 7 - day reverse repurchases totaling 5166 billion yuan were due, and on October 9, 7 - day reverse repurchases of 12325 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchases of 3000 billion yuan were due [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.0 and 5.5 basis points respectively compared to September 15 - 19, while the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.9 and 9.9 basis points respectively. The funding market loosened from September 22 - 23, fluctuated significantly from September 24 - 25, and the funding rate dropped significantly on September 26 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 716 billion yuan, a decrease of about 3764 billion yuan compared to September 15 - 21. From September 29 - 30, the expected net payment was 2121 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposits - **Yield Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs increased by 7.5, 1.0, and 1.0 basis points respectively compared to September 19 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 1782 billion yuan, turning negative from 1295 billion yuan in September 15 - 21. The expected maturity repayment from September 29 - October 5 was 1688 billion yuan, and the expected maturity in October was 18443 billion yuan, significantly lower than 35470 billion yuan in September [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.65%, up from 107.32% in September 15 - 19 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On September 26, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.05 years, up 0.01 years week - on - week, at the 59.2% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.58 years, up 0.03 years week - on - week, at the 14.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the central bank net - injected liquidity during the tax period, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase was changed to "American tender". The money market tightened under the influence of the tax period, and there may still be some volatility pressure in the second half of September due to the cross - quarter effect [2][6][7] - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, and the net payment scale of government bonds from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 413.9 billion yuan [8] - As of September 19, 2025, the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased overall, and the net financing amount of NCDs turned positive. The maturity repayment volume of NCDs from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 969.2 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [9] - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both decreased marginally [10] Summary by Directory 1. Money Market - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase injected 1.8268 trillion yuan and matured 1.2645 trillion yuan, and the treasury cash injected 150 billion yuan and matured 120 billion yuan, with a total net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. On September 15, a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with an incremental renewal of 300 billion yuan. From September 22 - 26, 2025, 1.8268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature [6] - On September 19, 2025, the central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to "fixed quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bids", which helps reduce bank liability costs and highlights the policy - rate position of the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate. It is expected that 14 - day reverse repurchases will be appropriately operated in late September to stabilize the money market [7] - From September 15 - 19, 2025, affected by the tax period, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.7 and 8.7 basis points respectively compared with September 8 - 12, and the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 4.8 and 4.0 basis points respectively [7] 2. Government Bonds - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 448 billion yuan, an increase of about 103.7 billion yuan compared with September 8 - 14. The net financing amount of treasury bonds was about 397.1 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 50.9 billion yuan. From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds is expected to be 41.39 billion yuan, with a net financing of about - 89.65 billion yuan for treasury bonds and about 131.04 billion yuan for local government bonds [8] 3. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of September 19, 2025, the maturity yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.5750%, an increase of 2.4 and 1.5 basis points respectively compared with September 12, and the maturity yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6750%, an increase of 0.5 basis points compared with September 12 [9] - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 134.4 billion yuan, compared with about - 468.3 billion yuan from September 8 - 14. The maturity repayment volume of NCDs from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 969.2 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [9] 4. Institutional Behavior - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.32%, compared with 107.37% from September 8 - 12. On September 19 and 12, the calculated leverage ratios were about 107.45% and 107.44% respectively [10] - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both decreased marginally. On September 19, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.04 years, a weekly decrease of 0.70 years, at the 58.7% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.56 years, a weekly decrease of 0.17 years, at the 12.2% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 18 - 22, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net capital injection, with the treasury cash - deposit injection of 120 billion yuan and maturity of 220 billion yuan. Meanwhile, it announced a 600 - billion - yuan MLF injection on the 25th. Affected by tax payment outflows, the capital market tightened first and then eased [2]. - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose overall, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market declined. From August 25 - 31, 2025, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be 211.5 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 751.8 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Capital Market - In August 2025, the net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan. From August 18 - 22, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 1265.2 billion yuan. Due to factors like tax payment outflows on August 19 and 20, the capital market was under pressure, and the daily net injection of 7 - day reverse repurchases exceeded 40 billion yuan on both days. From August 25 - 29, 2077 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature. A 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation will be carried out on August 25, resulting in a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan in August [6]. - The capital market tightened first and then eased. From August 18 - 22, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.45% and 1.51% respectively, up 12.1 and 14.7 basis points compared to August 11 - 15. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.53% respectively, up 7.0 and 6.2 basis points. Affected by factors such as tax payment outflows and possible diversion of non - bank funds to the equity market, the capital interest rate increased marginally from August 18 - 20. As the tax payment disturbance ended and the central bank continued to inject funds, the capital interest rate began to decline on August 21. Looking ahead, although the capital is about to enter the end - of - month period, the net injections of repurchase and MLF in August both being 30 billion yuan indicate the central bank's clear attitude of caring for liquidity. Only short - term fluctuations are expected during the end - of - month period [7]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased. From August 18 - 24, the net payment of government bonds was about 294.8 billion yuan, about 115.6 billion yuan less than that from August 11 - 17. Among them, the net financing of national bonds was about 115.6 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 179.2 billion yuan. From August 25 - 31, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be 211.5 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds about - 100 million yuan and that of local government bonds about 211.6 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - The maturity yields of NCDs rose overall. As of August 22, 2025, the 1 - month and 3 - month NCD maturity yields were 1.4950% and 1.5500% respectively, up 4 and 3 basis points compared to August 15. The 1 - year NCD maturity yield was 1.6650%, up 3 basis points compared to August 15 [9]. - The net financing of NCDs remained negative. From August 18 - 24, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 245.5 billion yuan, compared with about - 132.5 billion yuan from August 11 - 17. From August 25 - 31, the maturity repayment of NCDs is expected to be 751.8 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal is slightly weaker than the previous week's 794.7 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market declined. From August 18 - 22, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.31%, compared with 107.83% from August 11 - 15. On August 22 and August 15, the calculated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market were about 107.57% and 107.68% respectively [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report It is expected that with the combined cooperation of the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase and outright reverse repurchase, the funds' volatility during the tax period may be small. The past week saw a slight tightening of funds, and in the coming week, attention should be paid to the disturbances of government bond net payments and tax period outflows. The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased. In the future, the disturbances from funds and the equity market to the bond market will increase, and recently, the market may return to active bond trading to avoid liquidity risks during adjustments [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (7/7 - 7/11), the central bank's open - market operations led to a net liquidity withdrawal of 2265 billion yuan. As of 7/11, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 4257 billion yuan, significantly lower than that on 6/30 but still higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (7/14 - 7/18), the central bank's reverse repurchase will mature 4257 billion yuan, with a relatively small maturity scale evenly distributed daily. In July, the central bank has 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and outright reverse repurchase maturing, including 3000 billion yuan of MLF, 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase, and 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase [9][10]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the government bond net payment was 2961 billion yuan, with 1849 billion yuan for national bonds and 1112 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected government bond net payment is 3985 billion yuan, with 2761 billion yuan for national bonds and 1224 billion yuan for local bonds. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday and Tuesday. As of 7/11, the net financing progress of national bonds is 56.7%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 2.89 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 51.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2.51 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 89.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2041 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds accelerated in the second week of July, and the issuance pressure is relatively large in August and September of the third quarter [17][18][20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market - In the past week, bill interest rates showed a divergent trend, with the 3 - month bill interest rate rising and the 6 - month bill interest rate falling. Seasonally, the current bill interest rate trend is still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, indicating that the recovery of credit demand remains slow [25]. 3.1.4 Funds Review - Funds tightened slightly, showing a trend of first loosening, then slightly tightening, and finally relaxing. The funds were the loosest at the opening on 7/7 and the tightest at the opening on 7/10. Most fund interest rates increased, and the term and market stratifications mostly converged [27][30][31]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - In the past week (7/7 - 7/13), the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 4271 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 833.9 billion yuan. The issuance scale increased compared with the previous week, but the net financing scale declined. As of 7/13, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was 1.73 trillion yuan. The issuance weighted term decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale is 8028 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure is relatively large from Tuesday to Friday [50][55]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Secondary Market Transactions - The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has decreased. Different types of bonds have different buying and selling situations among various institutions. For example, large banks' purchases of short - term national bonds have increased, and the net buying of credit bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased [61]. 3.2.2 Institutional Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has oscillated upwards. The 10 - day moving average of the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds on 7/11 was 4.04 years, up from 3.96 years on 7/4. The secondary market trading duration of credit bonds showed mixed trends, with the 5 - day moving average of urban investment bond trading duration rising and that of Tier 2 capital bond trading duration falling [59][64]. 3.2.3 Institutional Leverage - The calculated bond market leverage ratio in the past week was 107.65%, a significant decrease compared with the previous week (107.96%) [66].

Group 1: Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 226.5 billion yuan, with a marginal tightening in the funding environment, as DR001 and DR007 remained below 1.35% and 1.5% respectively[6] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased slightly week-on-week, but the overall scale has dropped to the lowest level since early June, with a significant decline in net financing from large banks[13] - The funding gap index rose to -314.5 on Friday, indicating a worsening liquidity situation compared to the previous week's -701.0[13] Group 2: Government Debt and Tax Payments - This week, the net payment of government debt was 251.1 billion yuan, aligning with expectations, while next week is projected to see an increase to 428.5 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday and Tuesday[18] - The cumulative issuance of new general bonds in 2025 reached 466.5 billion yuan, with special bonds at 2227.5 billion yuan, and refinancing bonds at 1215.6 billion yuan[18] - Next week, the expected scale of national debt payments is 491.2 billion yuan, with significant payments due on July 15, coinciding with the tax payment deadline[18] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The central bank's operations indicate a reluctance to allow DR001 to breach the 1.3% lower limit, leading to a decrease in net financing from large banks[16] - Despite the upcoming tax payments and government debt payments, the central bank is expected to increase open market operations to mitigate external disturbances, suggesting a stable liquidity environment[16] - Predictions for Q3 government debt net financing have been adjusted downwards, with expected issuance of approximately 2.54 trillion yuan in July and net financing of about 1.38 trillion yuan[18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report From June 9 - 13, 2025, the central bank slightly net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase but announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase on June 16, showing its care for liquidity. The money market was loose with DR001 breaking below 1.40% during the week. From June 9 - 15, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields declined, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. Although there will be multiple tests on the money market in mid - to - late June, such as large NCD maturities, tax payment disturbances, MLF maturities, and cross - quarter funds, the money market is expected to remain relatively loose due to the central bank's care [2][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Money Market - **Central Bank's Liquidity Injection**: From June 9 - 13, 2025, the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan and withdrew 930.9 billion yuan through reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. 858.2 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature from June 16 - 20. The central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase on June 16, resulting in a net injection of 20 billion yuan in June. On June 17, 182 billion yuan of MLF will mature. June 16 is the tax declaration deadline, followed by 2 days of tax payment disturbances [6]. - **Money Market Conditions**: From June 9 - 13, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.38% and 1.43% respectively, down 3.4 and 2.7 basis points compared to June 2 - 6. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.56% respectively, down 3.0 and 0.9 basis points. From June 9 - 12, DR001 broke below the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of 1.40% [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From June 9 - 15, the government bond net payment scale was about 6.3 billion yuan, a decrease of about 69 billion yuan compared to June 2 - 8. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds was about 41.5 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about - 35.1 billion yuan. From June 16 - 22, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 433.4 billion yuan, with treasury bonds at about 265.9 billion yuan and local government bonds at about 167.5 billion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The money market in June is expected to remain stable. Despite multiple challenges in mid - to - late June, the money market is expected to remain relatively loose because of the central bank's care for liquidity [8]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield Changes**: As of June 13, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.6327% and 1.6355% respectively, basically unchanged and down 2 basis points compared to June 6. The 1 - year NCD yield was 1.6700%, down 1 basis point compared to June 6 [9]. - **Maturity Scale**: From June 9 - 15, the net financing of NCDs was about - 162.3 billion yuan. From June 16 - 22, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 1.0216 trillion yuan, continuing the large - scale maturity trend [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From June 9 - 13, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.03%, compared with 107.66% from June 3 - 6. On June 13 and June 6, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.10% and 107.68% respectively [10].