集运指数期货
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市场需求逐步好转,12月下半月运价逐步修正
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market demand is gradually improving, and freight rates are being gradually corrected in the second half of December. There is a high probability that Maersk's prices will rise in the first week of January, and attention should be paid to the time when freight rates peak. The 12 - month contract is expected to have a delivery settlement price between 1600 - 1700 points. The 2 - month contract is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward [1][4][5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of December 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 61,800 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 40,741 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1665.20, 1080.70, 1225.60, 1378.90, 1025.00, and 1655.10 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Prices - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 5 was 1400 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1550 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2315 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 8 was 1509.10 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 960.51 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 4 - week average monthly capacity was 314,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 were 334,500, 289,600, 315,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. In January, the average monthly capacity was 331,700 TEU, and in February, it was 262,900 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in December (1 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance), and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA Alliance. Maersk added a new sailing ship, MAERSK EINDHOVEN (13,092 TEU), in week 51. As of December 7, 2025, 245 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.99 million TEU [3][8]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched the Cape of Good Hope network due to the continuous turmoil in the Red Sea. There is no specific time to change the east - west routes of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea. The CMA FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) will fully resume operation in January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single trial run [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - Information from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering. The delivery settlement price of the 12 - month contract is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15, 22, and 29. The 2 - month contract's delivery settlement price basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the duration of the shipping companies' contract price - holding is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the 2 - month contract may be at parity with the 12 - month contract [4][6].
航运板块14家公司前三季度业绩亮眼 部分公司已超去年全年净利润
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-01 23:49
Core Insights - The stock prices of port and shipping companies in A-shares have surged due to increased international shipping rates and a significant rise in container shipping index futures [1] - The rise in shipping market prices is attributed to route restructuring, tight capacity, and supply-demand imbalances [1] - Geopolitical factors and climate change have led to longer shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in increased travel time and fuel costs [1] - The global oil production increase has boosted transportation demand, with OPEC+ implementing multiple production hikes this year, leading to a notable rise in maritime oil exports [1] Company Performance - In 2023, 14 shipping companies in China reported net profit growth in the first three quarters, with some exceeding their total net profit from the previous year [1] - An Tong Holdings (600179), Jin Jiang Shipping (601083), and Liao Port Co. (601880) showed significant profit growth, with increases of 311.77%, 64.76%, and 37.51% respectively [1]
集运指数欧线周报(EC):运价落地不佳,EC弱势震荡-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 09:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the container shipping industry is "weak and volatile" [3] Core Viewpoints - The future trend of the container shipping industry will show a weak and volatile pattern. The core driving factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of the January price increase letter, and seasonal changes in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. In early December, MSK quoted $2500, HPL quoted $2700, OOCL quoted $2400, CMA quoted $3550, EMC quoted $3100, ONE and MSC quoted $2450 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. The last trading day of the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthis officially announced to stop maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope actually passed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Bullish. The average weekly capacity deployment in September was 290,000, in October was 245,000, in November was 265,000, and in December is expected to be 290,000 [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years. PA + MSC has the lowest loading rate in the alliance and is more likely to cut prices, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Summary and Outlook** - The market will be weak and volatile. If the top shipping companies maintain the quote range of $2400 - $2600 per FEU in December and there is no large - scale overbooking, the near - month contracts of EC will continue to be under pressure. The implementation of the January price increase letter may face difficulties. The traditional peak season from late December to early January may bring short - term freight rate boosts if there is an unexpected increase in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter. If the December freight rates are implemented at 80% of the quoted price, the EC2602 contract may test the range of 1500 - 1700 points; if the price is successfully maintained, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [3] - **Investment Viewpoint and Trading Strategy** - The investment viewpoint is "weak and volatile". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and macro - policy disturbances at home and abroad [3] Part Two: Price - There are graphs showing the European Line Index, US West Line Index, US East Line Index, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [6] Part Three: Static Capacity - **Order Volume, Delivery Volume, Demolition Volume, and Future Delivery** - There are graphs showing the order volume, delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2029 [12][15][21] - **Ship Prices** - There are graphs showing the new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [28][34][36] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships** - There are graphs showing the existing capacity, average age, and demolition average age of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [43][50][52] Part Four: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)** - There are graphs showing the total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, MSC capacity deployment, and OCEAN capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 [58][60][62] - **Container Ship Desulfurization Tower Installation, Speed, and Idle Capacity** - There are graphs showing the container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those under installation, average speed, and idle capacity from 2018 - 2025 [69][73][77]
集运指数欧线周报(EC):胡塞停止袭击叠加运价落地不佳,本周EC弱势震荡-20251117
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 06:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", with a short - term (within 1 month), medium - term (1 - 3 months), and long - term (over 3 months) amplitude of - 5% - 5% [4][87] 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (EC) showed a weak oscillation this week due to the Houthi's halt of attacks and poor freight rate implementation. The future trend depends on the implementation of the December price increase notices, and it is difficult to predict the decline of the main contract freight rate for now. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, while paying attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logic** - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late November, MSK quoted 2020, HPL quoted 2850, etc.; in early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL quoted 3250, etc. There is an obvious differentiation in the price hikes among shipping companies [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: The last trading Monday for the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract in 2026 is February 9. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthi officially announced the halt of maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope is actually passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [4] - **Demand**: There are still expected 1 - 2 price hikes during the peak season. The loading rate shows differentiation, with PA + MSC having a lower loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [4] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The investment view is oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the price trends of European, US West, US East, and Mediterranean routes through line charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI indices [6][7][8] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [13] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 are presented, along with future delivery volume forecasts from 2023 - 2029 [16][17][22] - **Ship Prices**: It includes the scrap prices, new - building prices, and second - hand prices of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [29][31][35] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, age structure, and idle/retrofit ratio [44][47][51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) from Shanghai to European basic ports are presented from week 13 to week 28 [59][61][63] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: The situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including capacity, number of ships, and average age/duration, is shown [69][70][73] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, and proportion is presented from 2014 - 2025 [77][78][79]
航运日报:10月20日SCFIS略超预期,关注,马士基11月第一周开价情况-20251021
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:29
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, the SCFIS slightly exceeded expectations. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract is expected to trade in different rhythms, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5]. - The counter - measure of China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European line [3]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage opportunity currently [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 20, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1522.00, EC2604 is 1155.10, EC2606 is 1330.30, EC2608 is 1440.30, EC2510 is 1100.10, and EC2512 is 1682.00. The 10 - month contract has a high open interest, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract focuses on the actual implementation of price increases in November, and the trading rhythm is expected to follow the pattern of trading price increase expectations and actual implementation [4][5][6]. 2. Spot Price - On October 17, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1145 dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 1936 dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the US) was 2853 dollars/FEU. On October 20, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1140.38 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 863.46 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to October 2025, 211 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU. As of October 17, 2025, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 963,800 TEU, and 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 218,840 TEU. The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There were 4 blank sailings and 4 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [2][6]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is discussing the next - stage content of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, and has handed over the remains of Israeli hostages to the Red Cross. There is a counter - measure between China and the US regarding port fees for related ships, but it has a relatively small impact on the European line [2][3]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is no specific analysis of demand and European economy data in the content provided, but it can be inferred that the shipping companies' supply - side adjustment for freight rates is related to the need to prepare for the next - year long - term contract negotiation to ensure stable revenue [4][5].
美国即将对中国船舶征收港口费 对航运市场影响几何?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-09 00:54
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is implementing additional port fees for Chinese vessels starting October 14, 2025, which will significantly increase operational costs for Chinese shipowners and shipbuilders [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Port Fee Implementation - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) announced a fee structure for Chinese-owned, operated, and built vessels, with charges starting at $50 per net ton, increasing annually until reaching $140 by 2028 [1]. - The fees must be paid three working days before arrival at the first U.S. port, with non-compliance risking unloading delays or customs clearance suspension [1]. - The fee structure aims to boost U.S. shipbuilding and tax revenue while targeting Chinese maritime operations [3]. Group 2: Chinese Response and Operational Adjustments - In response, China amended its international shipping regulations to impose special fees on vessels from countries that implement discriminatory measures against Chinese shipping [2]. - Major shipping alliances have begun adjusting their operations, with some routes to the U.S. being suspended to reduce costs associated with the new port fees [4]. Group 3: Impact on Shipping Costs and Market Dynamics - The new port fees are expected to increase operational costs for Chinese shipowners significantly, with estimates of an additional $304 per TEU for container ships calling at U.S. ports [3]. - Shipping companies are prioritizing market share over profitability, leading to a rapid cancellation of sailings due to tariff disruptions and weak U.S. demand [5][6]. - The overall impact on the European shipping market is expected to be limited, but the situation will require ongoing observation as shipping lines may adjust their strategies in response to the new fees [7][8].
FICC日报:船司下半月集体挺价,关注最终实际落地情况-20250926
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of October, and the actual implementation needs to be monitored. - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, with the settlement price depending on the actual price increase in the second half of October. - The December contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the driving force is relatively strong before the continuous price - increase expectations are falsified. - The strategy suggests going short on the October contract and expecting the December contract to be oscillating upwards [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping alliances and companies have various price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased in Week 42; HPL announced price hikes in the second half of October and November. Some companies like CMA also attempted to raise prices in the second half of October [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel attacked Sana'a, Yemen, which may impact the shipping market [3]. - **Capacity**: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 272,600 TEU, and in November it was 285,200 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. - **October Contracts**: The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline, and the final settlement price depends on the actual price increase in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contracts**: The trading of the December contract focuses on the rhythm. With Western holidays in the fourth quarter and shipping companies' preparations for long - term agreements, the freight rate is expected to be at a high level. However, the weak demand in the US line and potential ship transfers may put pressure on European line prices [5]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Go short on the October contract and expect the December contract to be oscillating upwards. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is recommended [8]. 3.3 Data on Contracts and Freight Rates - As of September 25, 2025, the total position of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 77,695 lots, and the daily trading volume was 70,242 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as EC2602 at 1,696.20, EC2604 at 1,285.10, etc. - On September 19th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1,052 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was 1,636 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2,557 US dollars/FEU. On September 15th, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1,254.92 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,193.64 points [6]. 3.4 Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 62 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 935,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [7].
集装箱运输市场日报:哈马斯妥协,MSK新一周现舱报价降幅缩小-20250820
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 08:18
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures fluctuated slightly downward in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. Except for a slight increase in the EC2508 contract, the prices of other monthly contracts declined slightly. The opening price of the futures dropped due to Hamas' compromise on the cease - fire plan and MSC and Evergreen's price cuts for the European Line in late August. However, the price rebounded later because MSK's new - week spot cabin quotes for the European Line decreased less than the previous value and market expectations. Overall, it is more likely that EC will continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound from low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full - capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1450 - 1550 to lock in profits [1]. - For those who want to book cabins according to orders to prevent rising freight rates and increased costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1200 - 1300 to determine booking costs in advance [1]. Market Factors Analysis - **Negative Factors**: Hamas compromised on the cease - fire plan, reducing geopolitical risks and dampening market sentiment. MSC and Evergreen cut the European Line quotes in late August [1][2]. - **Positive Factor**: MSK's new - week spot cabin quotes for the European Line decreased less than the previous value and market expectations [1]. EC Contract Data - **Position and Trading Volume**: In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 347 to 27701, short positions increased by 122 to 32102, and trading volume decreased by 955 to 33432 (bilateral) [1]. - **Price and Spread**: On August 19, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2127.3 with a daily increase of 1.87% and a weekly increase of 2.18%. EC2510 closed at 1370.3 with a daily decrease of 0.20% and a weekly decrease of 3.34%. Other contract data are also provided, along with price spreads between different contracts [4]. Spot Cabin Quotes - **Maersk**: On August 28, the 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1480 (up $30 from the previous value), and the 40GP was $2510 (up $60). On September 4, the 20GP opening quote was $1265 (down $55 from the previous week), and the 40GP was $2110 (down $90 from the previous week) [6]. - **MSC**: In the past two weeks, the 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1550 (down $150), and the 40GP was $2590 (down $250). In early September, the 20GP total quote was $1556 (up $6), and the 40GP was $2602 (up $12) [6]. - **Evergreen**: In late August, the 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1805 (down $150), and the 40GP was $2760 (down $200) [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS**: The European Line was at 2180.17 (down 55.31, - 2.47%), and the US - West Line was at 1106.29 (up 24.15, 2.23%) [7]. - **SCFI**: The European Line was at $1820/TEU (down $141, - 7.19%), and the US - West Line was at $1759/FEU (down $64, - 3.51%) [7]. - **XSI**: The European Line was at $3083/FEU (down $36, - 1.15%), and the US - West Line was at $1849/FEU (down $13, - 0.7%) [7]. - **FBX**: The comprehensive freight rate index was at $1975/FEU (down $162, - 7.58%) [7]. Global Port Waiting Time - On August 18, 2025, Hong Kong Port's waiting time was 1.020 days (up 0.527 from the previous day), Shanghai Port's was 1.809 days (down 0.220), and other port data are also provided [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Number - On August 18, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.966 knots (down 0.014 from the previous day), and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor was 19 (up 4 from the previous day) [22].
集装箱运输市场日报:中美24%关税暂停影响偏中性,期价延续震荡-20250812
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 10:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened significantly lower and then fluctuated upwards. By the close, all contracts except EC2508 slightly declined. The suspension of the 24% mutual tariffs between China and the US for 90 days has a relatively neutral impact on futures prices from a macro - sentiment perspective. MSC's reduction of the spot cabin quotation for the European Line has lowered the futures price estimate. The EC2508 contract has some support at the bottom based on the basis convergence logic, showing a slight oscillation. In the future, it is more likely that the EC will oscillate downward or continue to oscillate. In the medium - term, without sudden events, the overall futures price may still slightly decline [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have bought cabin positions but face full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) in the range of 1500 - 1600 to lock in profits [1] - **Cost Management**: For those expecting to book cabins according to orders when shipping companies increase blank sailings or the peak season is approaching (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) in the range of 1200 - 1300 to fix booking costs in advance [1] 2. Market Sentiment Analysis - **Likely Positive Factor**: On August 11 local time, a Hamas delegation was to arrive in Cairo to restart the stalled cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip [2] - **Negative Factors**: MSC continued to reduce the spot cabin quotation for the European Line, and the SCFIS European Line continued to decline with an enlarged decline [2] 3. EC Basis and Price Data - **EC Basis Daily Change**: On August 12, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 153.48 points, down 2.00 points daily and 55.58 points weekly; EC2510 was 817.88 points, down 8.80 points daily and 66.98 points weekly; EC2512 was 493.48 points, up 8.00 points daily and down 113.88 points weekly [3] - **EC Price and Spread**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2082.0 points, up 0.10% daily and down 0.33% weekly; EC2510 was 1417.6 points, up 0.62% daily and 0.33% weekly; EC2512 was 1742.0 points, down 0.46% daily and up 3.05% weekly; EC2602 was 1528.0 points, up 0.72% daily and 2.39% weekly; EC2604 was 1350.0 points, down 0.91% daily and up 1.43% weekly; EC2606 was 1482.1 points, down 1.00% daily and up 0.71% weekly. There were also corresponding changes in price spreads [4] 4. Spot Cabin Quotations - On August 28, Maersk's 20GP total quotation for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route was $1355, up $20 from the previous period, and 40GP was $2270, up $40. In the past three weeks, MSC's 20GP opening quotation for the same route was $1700, down $120, and 40GP was $2840, down $200 [6] 5. Global Freight Rate Index - SCFIS European Line was 2235.48 points, down 62.38 points (- 2.71%); SCFIS US West Line was 1082.14 points, down 47.98 points (- 4.25%); SCFI European Line was $1961/TEU, down $90 (- 4.39%); SCFI US West Line was $1823/FEU, down $198 (- 9.80%); XSI European Line was $3239/FEU, down $52 (- 1.58%); XSI US West Line was $1954/FEU, down $25 (- 1.3%); FBX Composite Freight Rate Index was $2175/FEU, up $40 (1.87%) [7] 6. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.206 days to 0.397 days; Shanghai Port increased by 0.230 days to 1.886 days; Yantian Port decreased by 0.044 days to 0.584 days; Singapore Port increased by 0.157 days to 0.588 days; Jakarta Port decreased by 0.048 days to 1.046 days; Long Beach Port decreased by 0.190 days to 2.070 days; Savannah Port increased by 0.419 days to 1.919 days [12] 7. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On August 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the speed of 8000 + container ships increased by 0.153 knots to 16.188 knots; 3000 + increased by 0.076 knots to 14.870 knots; 1000 + decreased by 0.019 knots to 13.287 knots. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 13 to 12, compared with 5 in the same period last year [21]
集装箱运输市场日报:商品情绪影响,马士基新一周报价下跌-20250722
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 12:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures showed an overall oscillatory downward trend. Affected by commodity sentiment, there was a callback during the session, followed by a further decline. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts dropped. The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate and slightly decline, but attention should be paid to sudden factors such as the actions of other shipping companies and changes in the spot cabin quotes on the European line, as well as the possibility of a rebound when the futures price reaches a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendation - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained positions but have full capacity or poor booking volumes, and are worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended entry range for selling the EC2510 contract is 1800 - 1900 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures to determine the booking cost in advance. The recommended entry range for buying the EC2510 contract is 1350 - 1450 [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: The EC2510 contract saw an increase of 1029 long positions to 26,261 and an increase of 845 short positions to 31,963. The trading volume decreased by 2955 lots to 79,201 lots (bilateral). The futures price is expected to decline due to the lack of mainstream shipping companies following Maersk's PSS collection and Maersk's lower cabin quotes in the first week of August [2]. - **Spot Market**: Maersk's cabin quotes for the European line in the new week decreased significantly compared to the previous week, while Evergreen's spot cabin quotes for the European line in mid - early August showed a slight increase [3][7]. - **Geopolitical Factor**: The joint statement by 25 countries including the UK and France to promote the end of the Gaza war is beneficial for the decline of geopolitical risks, which also contributes to the decline of the futures price [2][3]. 3.3 Data Monitoring - **EC Basis**: On July 22, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 108.60 points, with a daily decrease of 26.00 points and a weekly decrease of 286.14 points; the basis of EC2510 was 807.80 points, with a daily increase of 20.30 points and a weekly decrease of 173.44 points [4]. - **EC Price and Spread**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2291.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.15% and a weekly increase of 13.06%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1592.7 points, with a daily decrease of 1.26% and a weekly increase of 10.55% [5]. - **Global Freight Index**: The SCFIS for the European line decreased by 0.89% to 2400.5 points; the SCFIS for the US West line increased by 2.78% to 1301.81 points; the SCFI for the European line decreased by 0.95% to 2079 dollars/TEU; the SCFI for the US West line decreased by 2.37% to 2142 dollars/FEU [8]. - **Container Shipping Spot Quotes**: On July 31, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $10 to $1895, and the 40GP total quote increased by $20 to $3190. On August 7, the 20GP opening quote decreased by $105 to $1740, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $170 to $2900. In mid - early August, Evergreen's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $100 to $2455, and the 40GP total quote increased by $200 to $3760 [7]. - **Global Major Port Waiting Time**: On July 21, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port increased by 0.453 days to 0.743 days; at Shanghai Port, it increased by 0.316 days to 1.754 days; at Yantian Port, it decreased by 0.299 days to 0.351 days; at Singapore Port, it increased by 0.958 days to 1.833 days; at Jakarta Port, it increased by 0.237 days to 1.782 days; at Long Beach Port, it decreased by 0.247 days to 1.709 days; at Savannah Port, it increased by 0.032 days to 1.586 days [15]. - **Ship Speed and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal Port Anchorage**: On July 21, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.9 knots, an increase of 0.127 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.856 knots, an increase of 0.09 knots; the average speed of 1000 + container ships was 13.134 knots, an increase of 0.132 knots. The number of ships waiting in the Suez Canal port anchorage increased by 9 to 30 [23][24].