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FICC日报:马士基上海:鹿特丹运价开出,6月下半月仍存涨价预期-20250523
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 05:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The shipping companies have issued price increase letters for June. The focus is on the final price implementation under the high - capacity background in June and whether the shipping companies will raise prices again in the second half of June. The 08 contract is facing a strong game between expectations and reality due to the traditional peak season in August and relatively low capacity in July. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [3]. - The supply of shipping capacity in European routes in June is relatively high, and the shipping capacity of Shanghai - East and West US routes has increased significantly month - on - month in June. The US and China have adjusted tariffs, suspending part of the additional tariffs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of May 23, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 107,007.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 133,162.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1450.20, 1266.00, 1768.00, 2206.00, 1451.90, and 1617.30 respectively [4]. 2. Spot Price - On May 16, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1154.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West US route) price was 3091.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East US) price was 4069.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 19, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1265.30 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West US) was 1446.36 points [4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 16, 2025, 98 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 762,700 TEU. Among them, 31 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 467,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 70,872 TEU [4]. - The average weekly shipping capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. The shipping capacities in weeks 23/24/25/26/27 were 296,200/302,800/282,300/226,000/268,200 TEU respectively, with an average of 277,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20%. The average weekly shipping capacity in July was 259,000 TEU. The average weekly shipping capacity of the Shanghai - East and West US routes in June was 320,500 TEU, while that in May was 243,400 TEU [2]. 4. Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided, only figure references.
FICC日报:主要船司发布6月涨价函,聚焦高运力下的实际价格落地情-20250516
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Main shipping companies have issued price increase notices for June, and the 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of price increases, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. Given the high capacity in June, it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [3][4] - The US tariff policy adjustment has led to significant changes in the US routes. Some shipping capacity has overflowed to European routes, but the US routes' capacity has rebounded in June, which may ease the pressure on European routes [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Prices - As of May 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 123,385 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 248,496 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1449.00, 1273.20, 1787.30, 2359.30, 1464.70, and 1611.20 respectively [4][5] Spot Prices - On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1161.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2347.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3335.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points [5] Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU. Among them, 30 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 451,300 TEU, and 3 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 70,872 TEU [5] - In June, the capacity on the European routes is relatively high, and the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes has increased significantly compared to May. The average weekly capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU, and the average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June is 294,000 TEU, compared with 243,400 TEU in May [2] Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is in direct talks with the US to reach an agreement to end the Gaza conflict. If a permanent cease - fire is achieved, Hamas can hand over control of the Gaza Strip [1] Demand and European Economy - Not elaborated in detail in the content, but factors such as the US tariff policy adjustment and the situation of the Gaza conflict may have an impact on demand and the European economy [1][3][4]
FICC日报:现货报价仍然相对偏弱,关注中美关税周末会谈情况-20250508
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 02:55
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The US tariff - adding policy has significantly changed the US - bound shipping routes. Some shipping capacity from the US - bound routes has overflowed to the European and Mediterranean routes. If more ships from the US - bound routes are diverted to the European routes, the freight rates of the European routes will face pressure. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' capacity adjustment. [4] - It is necessary to closely monitor the possibility of Sino - US negotiations. If the two sides negotiate and reduce some export tariffs on Chinese goods, there may be an opportunity for supply - demand mismatch on the US routes, which will have a positive impact on the European routes. Due to the frequent adjustment of tariff policies and high uncertainty, arbitrage is recommended for recent operations. [4] - The 06 contract still faces a weak reality, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price - increase expectations. If the US - bound cargo volume remains low, more ships may be diverted from the US - bound routes to the European routes in June. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of May 7, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the European container shipping index futures was 101,044.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 108,379.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1291.40, 1182.60, 1288.20, 1559.60, 1287.90, and 1460.70 respectively. [5] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for different weeks and months. For example, Maersk's Week 20 price is 974/1647, Week 21 is 885/1480; HPL's May shipment price is 1100/1700, and June is 1800/3000. [1] - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on April 30 was 1200.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2272.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3283.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on May 5 was 1379.07 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1320.69 points. [5] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In May, the shipping capacity was gradually revised upwards. The weekly capacities in Week 20/21/22 were 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in May was about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024. The average weekly capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. [2] - A total of 11 ships on the US - bound routes were diverted to the European routes, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. If the US - bound cargo volume remains low, more ships may be diverted in June. [2] - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU. Among them, 30 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 451,300 TEU; 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 70,872 TEU. [5] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical aspect: Yemeni Houthi officials stated that the cease - fire agreement did not include any direct talks with US officials. The US - Houthi cease - fire agreement mediated by Oman aimed to stop attacks on US ships. [2] 5. Demand and European Economy - The US tariff - adding policy has affected the shipping market. If Sino - US negotiations reduce some export tariffs on Chinese goods, there may be an opportunity for supply - demand mismatch on the US routes, which will have an impact on the European routes. [4]