Core Points - The German 10-year bond yield decreased by 3.5 basis points to 2.722% during the European market close on Friday [1] - Following Fed Chair Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference, the yield dropped from 2.744% to 2.712% [1] - The 10-year bond yield has seen a total decline of 6.6 basis points this week, exhibiting an M-shaped downward trend [1] Yield Summary - The 2-year German bond yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 1.948%, dropping from 1.976% to 1.947% after Powell's speech [1] - This yield has cumulatively decreased by 2.5 basis points this week, with a low of 1.929% observed on August 21 [1] - The 30-year German bond yield decreased by 1.8 basis points to 3.309%, with a total decline of 4.0 basis points this week [1] Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds decreased by 1.232 basis points to +77.063 basis points [1] - This spread has cumulatively declined by 4.184 basis points this week [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Core Viewpoint - The most undesirable scenario for the market is that Powell's press conference does not provide strong enough dovish signals, which could allow the dollar to continue its upward trend [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Policy Statement**: The recent policy statement and the dissenting votes from two officials were not surprising, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - **Importance of Powell's Press Conference**: The assessment of a potential rate cut in September hinges on the signals provided during Powell's press conference, which is critical for market expectations [1] - **Market Reactions**: Any dovish hints from Powell could support bearish positions on the dollar, but current economic data has not clarified the uncertainties surrounding the economy, reinforcing the rationale for maintaining the current policy stance [1] - **Potential Market Impact**: If the dovish signals from the press conference are insufficient, it could lead to a continuation of the dollar's recent rebound, creating further upward pressure on the currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and the potential impact of Powell's congressional testimony on gold prices, suggesting a possible increase in upward momentum for gold [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman has unexpectedly released dovish signals, which may influence market expectations [1] - Powell's upcoming congressional testimony is anticipated to provide further insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction, potentially affecting gold market dynamics [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring these developments to assess their implications for gold prices and investment strategies [1]