Group 1 - The current trading price of spot gold is around $3,626.29, with a recent report showing a slight decline of 0.31% to $3,631.60 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - Market expectations are shifting towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with nearly 100% probability, and a 4% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [2] - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo predicts that gold prices could rise to $3,900 per ounce by mid-next year, driven by multiple factors including a declining interest rate environment and increased geopolitical uncertainty [2] Group 2 - The market is eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's upcoming statement, as even a slight dovish hint could trigger a new rally in gold prices [3] - Gold prices have increased by 39% this year, transforming from a neglected asset to a market focal point, supported by significant inflows into ETFs [2] - Current gold price movements show a potential for upward trends, despite some expected corrections, with support levels being monitored closely [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming annual benchmark revision of non-farm payrolls by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to result in a significant downward adjustment of employment figures, estimated to be between 600,000 to 900,000 jobs [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Revision - The revision will cover a 12-month period from April 2024 to March 2025, leading to a monthly employment growth adjustment of 50,000 to 75,000 jobs [1]. - The analysis by Nomura indicates that the non-farm payroll report has overestimated job growth by approximately 857,000 jobs (around 95,000 jobs per month) for the second to fourth quarters of 2024 [3]. - The QCEW data, which covers over 95% of U.S. employment, is deemed more comprehensive and accurate than monthly non-farm data, despite its delayed release [8]. Group 2: Factors Behind Data Discrepancies - The significant gap between QCEW and non-farm data is attributed to two main factors: the inability of QCEW to capture undocumented immigrant employment and potential overestimation of job growth due to the "birth-death" adjustment embedded in non-farm data [10][11]. - Historical data shows that the "birth-death" adjustment often contributes significantly to annual non-farm data revisions, suggesting that this large downward adjustment is likely related [12]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Impacts - The annual benchmark revision is expected to reveal a more concentrated distribution of employment growth across fewer industries, with significant downward adjustments anticipated in professional services, construction, information technology, and manufacturing [15]. - The proportion of industries experiencing monthly job losses has increased from 25% in March 2024 to approximately 45% by July 2025, indicating a worsening concentration of employment growth and increasing downside risks [18]. Group 4: Implications for Monetary Policy - Despite the anticipated downward revision being a dovish signal for the market, its actual impact on monetary policy is expected to be limited, as Federal Reserve officials have already anticipated this adjustment [21]. - The Fed is expected to begin a quarterly rate cut of 25 basis points starting in September, unless there is a significant increase in layoffs or severe financial stress [22].

Group 1 - Gold prices have been fluctuating upwards, recently rebounding by $30 to break through the $3400 mark, but facing resistance and adjustments [1][6][12] - The market is currently in a rebound trend, with key support levels at $3384 and $3350, while resistance levels are at $3408 and $3438 [12][13] - The gold market has experienced four consecutive months of gains, but is now entering a period of consolidation, oscillating between $3300 and $3400 [12] Group 2 - Recent factors influencing gold prices include rising inflation expectations in the U.S., driven by tariff impacts and increased consumer confidence, alongside strong Japanese bond yields leading to a sell-off [13] - The upcoming U.S. unemployment claims data and second-quarter GDP figures are expected to significantly impact the labor market and economic outlook, which could influence Federal Reserve decisions [14] - The U.S. sovereign credit is facing unprecedented challenges, raising questions about the future of the dollar as a global reserve currency [15]

Core Viewpoint - Ethereum has surpassed its previous all-time high from the 2021 cryptocurrency bull market, reaching a price of $4,866.727, which is higher than the previous peak of $4,866.400 recorded on November 10, 2021 [1] Group 1 - Ethereum's price breakthrough indicates strong market momentum and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency sector [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that several conditions "may ensure" a rate cut, which could positively impact the cryptocurrency market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a significant decline following dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during the Jackson Hole global central banking conference, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury yield fell by 7.39 basis points to 4.2537%, with a weekly decline of 6.22 basis points, trading within a range of 4.3511% to 4.2402% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 9.54 basis points to 3.6963%, with a weekly drop of 5.42 basis points, trading between 3.8040% and 3.6732% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the 10-year yield dropped sharply from above 4.3% to near 4.24%, indicating market sensitivity to Fed communications [1] - The 2-year yield also reacted similarly, falling from around 3.78% to below 3.7%, reflecting investor expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [1]

Core Points - The German 10-year bond yield decreased by 3.5 basis points to 2.722% during the European market close on Friday [1] - Following Fed Chair Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference, the yield dropped from 2.744% to 2.712% [1] - The 10-year bond yield has seen a total decline of 6.6 basis points this week, exhibiting an M-shaped downward trend [1] Yield Summary - The 2-year German bond yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 1.948%, dropping from 1.976% to 1.947% after Powell's speech [1] - This yield has cumulatively decreased by 2.5 basis points this week, with a low of 1.929% observed on August 21 [1] - The 30-year German bond yield decreased by 1.8 basis points to 3.309%, with a total decline of 4.0 basis points this week [1] Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds decreased by 1.232 basis points to +77.063 basis points [1] - This spread has cumulatively declined by 4.184 basis points this week [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Core Viewpoint - The most undesirable scenario for the market is that Powell's press conference does not provide strong enough dovish signals, which could allow the dollar to continue its upward trend [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Policy Statement**: The recent policy statement and the dissenting votes from two officials were not surprising, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - **Importance of Powell's Press Conference**: The assessment of a potential rate cut in September hinges on the signals provided during Powell's press conference, which is critical for market expectations [1] - **Market Reactions**: Any dovish hints from Powell could support bearish positions on the dollar, but current economic data has not clarified the uncertainties surrounding the economy, reinforcing the rationale for maintaining the current policy stance [1] - **Potential Market Impact**: If the dovish signals from the press conference are insufficient, it could lead to a continuation of the dollar's recent rebound, creating further upward pressure on the currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and the potential impact of Powell's congressional testimony on gold prices, suggesting a possible increase in upward momentum for gold [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman has unexpectedly released dovish signals, which may influence market expectations [1] - Powell's upcoming congressional testimony is anticipated to provide further insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction, potentially affecting gold market dynamics [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring these developments to assess their implications for gold prices and investment strategies [1]