卢比奥上周日在驻日内瓦美国代表团驻地表示："我们今天已在这方面取得实质性进展。"此前特朗普称 乌克兰对美国在冲突中的努力未表感激，乌方官员随即强调感谢美国总统的支持。欧洲官员在上周日晚 间加入美乌代表团会谈，此前他们制定了美方方案的修正版，其中驳回了对乌武装力量的限制提议，并 对领土让步条款提出异议。 另外卢比奥表示美国仍需时间解决未决问题。他希望能在周四前达成协议，但也暗示可能需要更长时 间。两位知情人士上周日透露，美乌官员正在讨论泽连斯基访美可能性，最早或于本周成行，届时将与 特朗普讨论美国提出的和平方案。其中一位知情人士称，核心议程是商讨和平方案中最敏感的领土问 题，但目前尚未确定具体日期。 周一(11月24日)亚洲时段，现货白银开盘拉高走低，再度跌下50美元心理关口，欧市盘中，现货白银走 势区域震荡，价格围绕49.92美元徘徊，银价正逼近50.50美元/盎司水平。今晚关注美国11月达拉斯联储 商业活动指数。 【要闻聚焦】 美国表示在上周日（11月23日）的会谈中，就表示为结束俄乌冲突的计划取得了重大进展，但在如何保 障基辅安全的问题上未能达成一致，各方对俄罗斯构成的威胁仍存顾虑。 由于认为美方提出的方 ...

同一天稍早前，美联储纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示，随着劳动力市场降温，，以将政策立场调整 至更接近中性水平。 威廉姆斯和米兰的讲话被市场解读为美联储内部又一个更明确的鸽派信号，为12月降息预期再添筹码。 更新中...... 特朗普钦点美联储理事米兰周五表示，隔夜公布的9月非农就业报告"明显偏向鸽派"，强化了美国劳动 力市场持续降温的证据。 他强调，当前美联储面临的数据确实有限，"但缺乏数据并不意味着我们没有预测"，政策制定仍可基于 趋势判断。米兰进一步透露政策倾向称，如果他的投票在下一次议息中具有决定性作用，"我会投票支 持降息25个基点"。 米兰指出，11月CPI数据的发布时间将落在12月FOMC会议之后，因此决策者在会议上将无法获得该数 据，这也意味着政策讨论将更多基于目前的劳动力与通胀趋势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is highly sensitive to any signals from Federal Reserve officials, as the lack of clear economic data creates uncertainty, leading to potential volatility in exchange rates [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a significant drop, breaking the psychological barrier of 150, reaching a low of 149.90, with a decline of 0.30%, which heightened market tension [2] - The yen's safe-haven appeal has surged due to escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks, resulting in increased capital inflow and a rise in the yen's value [3] - Concerns regarding Japan's fiscal health have eased, bolstered by growing expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan by year-end, supported by cautious statements from Governor Kazuo Ueda [4] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Political Climate - The Federal Reserve has signaled a more dovish stance, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating the possibility of two rate cuts in 2025, which has pressured the dollar and accelerated the shift of funds from dollar assets to yen-denominated safe-haven assets [5] - The ongoing political deadlock in the U.S. has further weighed on the dollar, with the Senate rejecting a short-term funding bill for the tenth time, raising concerns about the potential economic impact of a prolonged government shutdown [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technically, the USD/JPY pair faces critical support around the 149.40 Fibonacci retracement level; a breach could lead to a rapid decline towards 148.50, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - Despite increasing political turmoil in Japan, strong demand for safe-haven assets has overshadowed its impact on the yen, reflecting a complex and divided market sentiment among investors [8] - Resistance levels for potential rebounds are noted at 150.30 and a more significant barrier at 151.00, making it challenging for bulls to reverse the overall bearish trend in the short term [10]

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell below 99.50, showing a slight decline after reaching a two-month high of 99.55, indicating a pause in its recent recovery trend [1][2] - The US government shutdown has entered its ninth day with no significant progress, as the Republican proposal to fund the government failed to secure enough votes in the Senate [1] - Trump's administration plans to use the government shutdown to permanently cut what he refers to as "Democratic projects," signaling a shift in focus towards reducing federal spending [1] Group 2 - The dollar index has shown strong performance this week, up 1.7% and on track for its best weekly performance in a year, despite the ongoing government shutdown [2] - The dollar index is expected to maintain a range between 99 and 99.5 ahead of employment data, with potential volatility depending on signals from Powell at the upcoming community bank meeting [2] - If Powell emphasizes "sticky inflation," it could push the index to break through the resistance level of 99.5 [2]

Group 1 - The core issue this week revolves around whether Federal Reserve officials will intervene to curb market bets on sustained interest rate cuts starting next year [1] - Most investors anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision, with some even predicting a 50 basis point cut [3] - The market has extended its easing expectations through 2026, prompting investors to adjust asset allocations to mitigate potential recession risks [3] Group 2 - The prediction of a 50 basis point cut has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark yield at its lowest level since April [3] - The S&P 500 index is approaching historical highs, while the Nasdaq 100 index has been on a continuous rise, benefiting from easing expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar has weakened due to market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the dollar index failing to rebound effectively [3] Group 3 - Despite a decrease from previous peaks, U.S. inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with key inflation indicators not reaching target ranges [3] - Adjustments in tariff policies have kept costs of certain imported goods high, contributing to persistent cost pressures in manufacturing and other sectors [3] - Various factors could lead to changes in the rate cut plans [3] Group 4 - Bond portfolio manager McIntyre expects a 25 basis point cut this week, emphasizing the importance of labor market conditions over inflation issues in the policy statement [4] - McIntyre has begun adjusting his investment portfolio by increasing bond holdings, particularly in 30-year Treasuries [4] - The market is particularly focused on employment concerns, with expectations of a significant volatility in the S&P 500 index around the Federal Reserve meeting [4] Group 5 - Concerns arise regarding Trump's economic advisor Milan potentially receiving a Federal Reserve Board appointment before the decision, which may influence the independence of the Fed's decision-making [4] - If the funds that entered the market due to rate cut expectations do not receive further easing signals, they may withdraw, putting short-term pressure on the stock market [4]

Group 1 - The current trading price of spot gold is around $3,626.29, with a recent report showing a slight decline of 0.31% to $3,631.60 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - Market expectations are shifting towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with nearly 100% probability, and a 4% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [2] - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo predicts that gold prices could rise to $3,900 per ounce by mid-next year, driven by multiple factors including a declining interest rate environment and increased geopolitical uncertainty [2] Group 2 - The market is eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's upcoming statement, as even a slight dovish hint could trigger a new rally in gold prices [3] - Gold prices have increased by 39% this year, transforming from a neglected asset to a market focal point, supported by significant inflows into ETFs [2] - Current gold price movements show a potential for upward trends, despite some expected corrections, with support levels being monitored closely [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming annual benchmark revision of non-farm payrolls by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to result in a significant downward adjustment of employment figures, estimated to be between 600,000 to 900,000 jobs [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Revision - The revision will cover a 12-month period from April 2024 to March 2025, leading to a monthly employment growth adjustment of 50,000 to 75,000 jobs [1]. - The analysis by Nomura indicates that the non-farm payroll report has overestimated job growth by approximately 857,000 jobs (around 95,000 jobs per month) for the second to fourth quarters of 2024 [3]. - The QCEW data, which covers over 95% of U.S. employment, is deemed more comprehensive and accurate than monthly non-farm data, despite its delayed release [8]. Group 2: Factors Behind Data Discrepancies - The significant gap between QCEW and non-farm data is attributed to two main factors: the inability of QCEW to capture undocumented immigrant employment and potential overestimation of job growth due to the "birth-death" adjustment embedded in non-farm data [10][11]. - Historical data shows that the "birth-death" adjustment often contributes significantly to annual non-farm data revisions, suggesting that this large downward adjustment is likely related [12]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Impacts - The annual benchmark revision is expected to reveal a more concentrated distribution of employment growth across fewer industries, with significant downward adjustments anticipated in professional services, construction, information technology, and manufacturing [15]. - The proportion of industries experiencing monthly job losses has increased from 25% in March 2024 to approximately 45% by July 2025, indicating a worsening concentration of employment growth and increasing downside risks [18]. Group 4: Implications for Monetary Policy - Despite the anticipated downward revision being a dovish signal for the market, its actual impact on monetary policy is expected to be limited, as Federal Reserve officials have already anticipated this adjustment [21]. - The Fed is expected to begin a quarterly rate cut of 25 basis points starting in September, unless there is a significant increase in layoffs or severe financial stress [22].

Group 1 - Gold prices have been fluctuating upwards, recently rebounding by $30 to break through the $3400 mark, but facing resistance and adjustments [1][6][12] - The market is currently in a rebound trend, with key support levels at $3384 and $3350, while resistance levels are at $3408 and $3438 [12][13] - The gold market has experienced four consecutive months of gains, but is now entering a period of consolidation, oscillating between $3300 and $3400 [12] Group 2 - Recent factors influencing gold prices include rising inflation expectations in the U.S., driven by tariff impacts and increased consumer confidence, alongside strong Japanese bond yields leading to a sell-off [13] - The upcoming U.S. unemployment claims data and second-quarter GDP figures are expected to significantly impact the labor market and economic outlook, which could influence Federal Reserve decisions [14] - The U.S. sovereign credit is facing unprecedented challenges, raising questions about the future of the dollar as a global reserve currency [15]

Core Viewpoint - Ethereum has surpassed its previous all-time high from the 2021 cryptocurrency bull market, reaching a price of $4,866.727, which is higher than the previous peak of $4,866.400 recorded on November 10, 2021 [1] Group 1 - Ethereum's price breakthrough indicates strong market momentum and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency sector [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that several conditions "may ensure" a rate cut, which could positively impact the cryptocurrency market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a significant decline following dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during the Jackson Hole global central banking conference, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury yield fell by 7.39 basis points to 4.2537%, with a weekly decline of 6.22 basis points, trading within a range of 4.3511% to 4.2402% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 9.54 basis points to 3.6963%, with a weekly drop of 5.42 basis points, trading between 3.8040% and 3.6732% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the 10-year yield dropped sharply from above 4.3% to near 4.24%, indicating market sensitivity to Fed communications [1] - The 2-year yield also reacted similarly, falling from around 3.78% to below 3.7%, reflecting investor expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [1]