北京时间周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.367附近，现货白银今日开盘于66.21美元/盎司， 目前交投于66.27美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于15488元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于15514元/千克附 近。今日基本面关注美国将公布11月CPI数据，同时，美国还将公布12月费城联储制造业指数以及上周 初请失业金人数。 周三(12月17日)美元指数上涨0.18%，收报98.401，现货白银收报66.17美元/盎司，上涨3.82%，由于下 任美联储主席"黑马"释放鸽派信号，现货黄金一度重回4340美元附近，随后开启宽幅震荡，现货白银价 格将历史新高刷新至66美元上方：现货黄金上涨0.81%，报4337.16美元/盎司，现货铂金收涨2.62%，报 1896.20美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨2.52%，至1646.50元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 12月17日白银ETF持仓16018.29吨，较前一交易日持平； 12月17日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)--多付空。 【要闻速递】 1.美联储联合调查：关税持续困扰企业，预计明年物价上涨4%。 2.美联储理事沃勒：货币政策仍处于限制性区间，仍有降息空 ...

市场原本预期美联储"鹰派降息"，但实际结果显示，没有出现更多的异议者、也没有更高的点阵图，设想的鲍威尔强硬表态也未出现。华尔街分析师预 计明年实际降息幅度可能超过点阵图显示的25个基点。新主席人事更迭和政策不确定性成为2026年市场波动的潜在驱动因素。 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储宣布降息25基点，同时在决议声明中宣布将在两日内启动400亿美元国债购买计划，纽约联储随后发布了具体执行方案。 这是自2020年初新冠疫情期间的流动性紧张以来首次被直接写入政策声明，该举措被部分分析师视为明显的鸽派信号。 此外点阵图显示，尽管有6位委员支持明年维持利率不变，但实际仅有两位票委表示异议，低于市场预期的鹰派阵容。 （FOMC中6位委员拒绝降息，其中4位没有投票权） 尽管市场原本预期一次"鹰派降息"，但实际结果显示，没有出现更多的异议者、也没有更高的点阵图，设想的鲍威尔强硬表态也未出现。华尔街分析师 解读美联储决议，认为比预期更鸽派。 她预计美联储明年将降息100个基点，而非点阵图显示的25个基点，理由是预期薪资增长疲软且2026年上半年几乎看不到通胀反弹迹象。 高盛美国经济研究主管David Mericle表示： 决议包含许 ...

周一(12月8日)亚洲时段，现货黄金早盘维持上行趋势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4209.08美元/盎司，上 涨0.29%，最高触及4213.01美元/盎司，最低下探4195.31美元/盎司。市场普遍预期美联储即将在12月会 议降息的推动。然而，美国通胀仍高于目标水平，且经济数据偏强，使美元存在反弹压力，从而可能削 弱金价涨势，但全球央行继续增持黄金，中期基本面依然维持多头。 道明证券策略主管指出，市场对降息的信心增强导致美元小幅走弱，这对黄金构成利好。经济数据显示 美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比涨幅放缓，加之此前公布的就业数据疲软，强化了市场对政策转向的预 期。根据芝商所FedWatch工具，市场预计美联储在下周会议上降息25个基点的概率高达86.2%。 机构预测，金价今年将在每盎司4200至4,500美元区间交投，明年可能进一步升至4500至5000美元。不 过，实物需求方面，印度和中国的黄金买盘因等待价格回调而有所减弱。 调查显示，对未来一周金价走势预期，13位分析师意见分歧明显，其中46%看好上涨，46%预计横盘， 仅8%预测下跌；而在163位散户投资者中，69%持看涨情绪，15%看跌，16%预期盘整。这 ...

今日周一(12月8日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于57.80一线上方，今日开盘于58.31美元/盎司，截至发 稿，国际白银暂报57.93美元/盎司，下跌0.59%，最高触及58.61美元/盎司，最低下探57.52美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 点阵图方面，三个月前中位数预计2025年降息两次，2026-2027年各一次。若本次降息后2026-2027年预 期减少，可能被视为鹰派信号；反之，若预期持平或增加，且长期点阵图下移，则为鸽派，施压美元。 本周美联储利率决议备受瞩目，FOMC预计将指标隔夜利率区间下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银中长期看涨不变，短期继续看冲高下跌为主。每次靠近新高或刷新新高都是回落的机会，下方 重点支撑54-55。市场等待价格回落至50天均线下方时再考虑相关操作机会，而50美元水平恰好处于50 天均线下方区域，这一价位或值得关注。 【要闻速递】 美国财政部长Scott Bessent(贝森特)表示，今年迎来"非常强劲"的假日购物季，预测全年实际GDP增长 3%。 数据显示，前三个月经济同比收缩0.6%，第二季度增长3.8 ...

Market Overview - The market is betting on an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, leading to a decline in the dollar to a one-week low [1] - Expectations for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are limiting safe-haven demand, while several Federal Reserve officials have released dovish signals, compounded by weak economic data, resulting in a bullish fundamental outlook for gold with limited pullback potential [1] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices trading above the middle band; the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover in progress, while the RSI indicator is in an overbought pullback state, indicating a need to be cautious of potential pullback in gold prices [2] - On the 4-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands are also narrowing, with gold prices above the middle band; the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, and the RSI indicator is in a state of oversold rebound, indicating a clear demand for bullish reversal, with support at 4100 and resistance at 4200 to be monitored [2] - On the 1-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices near the middle band; the MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, and the RSI is in an overbought pullback state, suggesting strong upward momentum but caution for potential pullback [2] Future Gold Trading Strategy - For bullish positions: Aggressive traders should rely on the support level of 4000 USD/oz, entering long positions around 4025-4035 USD/oz after stabilization; conservative traders should depend on the support level of 3900 USD/oz, entering long positions around 3925-3935 USD/oz [4] - For bearish positions: Aggressive traders should rely on the resistance level of 4250 USD/oz, entering short positions around 4240-4230 USD/oz after facing resistance; conservative traders should depend on the resistance level of 4380 USD/oz, entering short positions around 4375-4365 USD/oz [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights significant progress in discussions aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although there are still unresolved issues regarding security guarantees for Kyiv [2][3] - Concerns remain among Kyiv and its allies regarding perceived concessions to Russia in the proposed peace plan, leading to calls for amendments to the terms [2] - U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that substantial progress has been made, but further negotiations are needed on key issues such as NATO's role and security guarantees for Ukraine [2][3] Group 2 - The technical structure for silver remains unchanged, with a primary upward trend supported by the 52-week moving average of $36.77 [4] - Sustaining above $50.02 confirms bullish interest, with $51.07 as the first upward target, potentially leading to a multi-year high of $54.49 [4] - A drop below $50.02 would indicate bearish control, exposing critical support levels between $45.72 and $45.55, with $45.55 being a pivotal point for reversing the weekly trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll report for September indicates a clear dovish trend, suggesting a continued cooling in the U.S. labor market, which may influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that the current data is limited, but predictions can still be made based on trends, indicating a potential for policy adjustments [1] - Bowman expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut if her vote is decisive in the next meeting, highlighting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - New York Fed President John Williams noted that as the labor market cools, the policy stance should be adjusted closer to neutral, reinforcing the dovish sentiment within the Fed [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The remarks from both Bowman and Williams have been interpreted by the market as a stronger dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is highly sensitive to any signals from Federal Reserve officials, as the lack of clear economic data creates uncertainty, leading to potential volatility in exchange rates [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a significant drop, breaking the psychological barrier of 150, reaching a low of 149.90, with a decline of 0.30%, which heightened market tension [2] - The yen's safe-haven appeal has surged due to escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks, resulting in increased capital inflow and a rise in the yen's value [3] - Concerns regarding Japan's fiscal health have eased, bolstered by growing expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan by year-end, supported by cautious statements from Governor Kazuo Ueda [4] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Political Climate - The Federal Reserve has signaled a more dovish stance, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating the possibility of two rate cuts in 2025, which has pressured the dollar and accelerated the shift of funds from dollar assets to yen-denominated safe-haven assets [5] - The ongoing political deadlock in the U.S. has further weighed on the dollar, with the Senate rejecting a short-term funding bill for the tenth time, raising concerns about the potential economic impact of a prolonged government shutdown [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technically, the USD/JPY pair faces critical support around the 149.40 Fibonacci retracement level; a breach could lead to a rapid decline towards 148.50, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - Despite increasing political turmoil in Japan, strong demand for safe-haven assets has overshadowed its impact on the yen, reflecting a complex and divided market sentiment among investors [8] - Resistance levels for potential rebounds are noted at 150.30 and a more significant barrier at 151.00, making it challenging for bulls to reverse the overall bearish trend in the short term [10]

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell below 99.50, showing a slight decline after reaching a two-month high of 99.55, indicating a pause in its recent recovery trend [1][2] - The US government shutdown has entered its ninth day with no significant progress, as the Republican proposal to fund the government failed to secure enough votes in the Senate [1] - Trump's administration plans to use the government shutdown to permanently cut what he refers to as "Democratic projects," signaling a shift in focus towards reducing federal spending [1] Group 2 - The dollar index has shown strong performance this week, up 1.7% and on track for its best weekly performance in a year, despite the ongoing government shutdown [2] - The dollar index is expected to maintain a range between 99 and 99.5 ahead of employment data, with potential volatility depending on signals from Powell at the upcoming community bank meeting [2] - If Powell emphasizes "sticky inflation," it could push the index to break through the resistance level of 99.5 [2]

Group 1 - The core issue this week revolves around whether Federal Reserve officials will intervene to curb market bets on sustained interest rate cuts starting next year [1] - Most investors anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision, with some even predicting a 50 basis point cut [3] - The market has extended its easing expectations through 2026, prompting investors to adjust asset allocations to mitigate potential recession risks [3] Group 2 - The prediction of a 50 basis point cut has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark yield at its lowest level since April [3] - The S&P 500 index is approaching historical highs, while the Nasdaq 100 index has been on a continuous rise, benefiting from easing expectations [3] - The U.S. dollar has weakened due to market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the dollar index failing to rebound effectively [3] Group 3 - Despite a decrease from previous peaks, U.S. inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with key inflation indicators not reaching target ranges [3] - Adjustments in tariff policies have kept costs of certain imported goods high, contributing to persistent cost pressures in manufacturing and other sectors [3] - Various factors could lead to changes in the rate cut plans [3] Group 4 - Bond portfolio manager McIntyre expects a 25 basis point cut this week, emphasizing the importance of labor market conditions over inflation issues in the policy statement [4] - McIntyre has begun adjusting his investment portfolio by increasing bond holdings, particularly in 30-year Treasuries [4] - The market is particularly focused on employment concerns, with expectations of a significant volatility in the S&P 500 index around the Federal Reserve meeting [4] Group 5 - Concerns arise regarding Trump's economic advisor Milan potentially receiving a Federal Reserve Board appointment before the decision, which may influence the independence of the Fed's decision-making [4] - If the funds that entered the market due to rate cut expectations do not receive further easing signals, they may withdraw, putting short-term pressure on the stock market [4]