Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the LPG market, highlighting increased geopolitical uncertainties and weakening support for the market. It presents various LPG - related data including futures prices, spreads, and industry chain price data, as well as market news such as Saudi CP expectations and domestic device maintenance plans [1]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: PG2507 closed at 4,398 with a daily increase of 1.29% and a night - session close of 4,342 with a decrease of 1.27%. PG2508 closed at 4,319 with a daily increase of 1.60% and a night - session close of 4,258 with a decrease of 1.41% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: PG2507's trading volume was 113,213, a decrease of 61,336 compared to the previous day, and open interest was 41,489, a decrease of 667. PG2508's trading volume was 49,484, a decrease of 30,897, and open interest was 50,284, a decrease of 339 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to the 07 contract was 332 (previous day: 378), and the spread of Guangzhou imported gas to the 07 contract was 402 this week (previous week: 458) [1]. - **Industry Chain Price Data**: PDH operating rate was 64.3% (previous: 63.0%), MTBE operating rate was 59.7% (previous: 54.7%), and alkylation operating rate was 47.5% (previous: 48.3%) [1]. Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. Market News - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 13, 2025, the expected price of propane for July Saudi CP was 592 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton from the previous trading day, and the expected price of butane was 562 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton. For August, the expected price of propane was 579 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton, and the expected price of butane was 549 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting as early as 2023 and some ending at various times in 2025 or with undetermined end - dates [7]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG factories across different regions in China have maintenance plans with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start and end times, and durations [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Date: June 11, 2025 [1] - Report Subject: LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) research 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The cost support for LPG is weakening [1] - The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - PG2507 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,119 with a daily increase of 0.07%, and a night - session closing price of 4,119 with a night - session increase of 0.00%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 75,298 (a change of 21,902 from the previous day), and the position was 52,344 (a decrease of 2,665 from the previous day) [3] - PG2508 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,003 with a daily increase of 0.13%, and a night - session closing price of 4,011 with a night - session increase of 0.20%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 16,805 (a change of 5,882 from the previous day), and the position was 44,584 (an increase of 3,054 from the previous day) [3] - **Spread Data**: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 461 yesterday (compared to 464 the day before) [3] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 561 yesterday (compared to 564 the day before) [3] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: - The PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) operating rate this week was 63.0%, slightly down from 63.3% last week [3] - The MTBE (Methyl Tert - Butyl Ether) operating rate this week was 54.7%, up from 54.2% last week [3] - The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged at 48.3% this week compared to last week [3] 4.2 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 9, 2025, the expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 578 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 548 dollars/ton, also down 3 dollars/ton. The expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 561 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 531 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton [11] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies including Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., and others have PDH device maintenance plans with different start and end times [9]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Crude Oil Fluctuates Widely, Domestic Support Weakens" and is dated May 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: LPG Futures Data - PG2506 closed at 4,236 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.26%, and at 4,210 in the night session with a decline of -0.61%. PG2507 closed at 4,182 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.63%, and at 4,151 in the night session with a decline of -0.74% [3] - PG2506 had a trading volume of 40,710 yesterday, a decrease of 500 from the previous day, and an open interest of 31,963, a decrease of 7065. PG2507 had a trading volume of 34,136, an increase of 2888, and an open interest of 61,795, an increase of 2354 [3] - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 614 yesterday, compared with 675 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 744 yesterday, compared with 775 the previous day [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Important Price Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 58.0%, down from 59.6% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 56.1%, down from 61.4% last week. The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged at 41.0% [3] Group 4: LPG Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9] Group 5: Market Information - PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance or have scheduled maintenance, including Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times date back to 2023, and many end times are still undetermined [10] Group 6: Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations - On May 20, 2025, the expected Saudi CP for propane in June was 585 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the expected butane price was 565 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton. The expected Saudi CP for propane in July was 559 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the expected butane price was 539 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton [11] Group 7: Market Information - Refinery Maintenance Plans - Many refineries across the country are undergoing or have planned maintenance, including Zhenghua Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the LPG market, indicating that short - term support is strengthening, and attention should be paid to the rebound of the domestic market. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For PG2506, the yesterday's closing price was 4,225 with a daily decline of 0.96%, and the night - session closing price was 4,236 with a night - session increase of 0.26%. The yesterday's trading volume was 41,210, a decrease of 17,245 from the previous day, and the position was 39,028, a decrease of 4,754 from the previous day [1]. - For PG2507, the yesterday's closing price was 4,156 with a daily decline of 1.12%, and the night - session closing price was 4,160 with a night - session increase of 0.10%. The yesterday's trading volume was 31,248, an increase of 1,300 from the previous day, and the position was 59,441, an increase of 5,744 from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 675 yesterday, compared to 634 the day before [1]. - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 775 yesterday, compared to 734 the day before [1]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: - The PDH start - up rate this week was 58.0%, down from 59.6% last week [1]. - The MTBE start - up rate was 56.1%, down from 61.4% previously [1]. - The alkylation start - up rate was 41.0%, down from 42.2% previously [1]. Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [7]. Market Information - **PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd. (starting on May 12, 2023, end time to be determined), Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. (starting in late November 2023, end time to be determined), etc. [8]. - **Saudi CP Expectations (May 19, 2025)**: - For June, the expected price of propane was 584 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 564 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [9]. - For July, the expected price of propane was 557 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 537 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [9]. - **Domestic Refinery Maintenance Plans**: Many refineries have maintenance plans, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical (starting on May 14, 2024, end time to be determined), Panjin Haoye (starting on April 5, 2024, end time to be determined), etc., with varying normal production and loss volumes [10].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 LPG：临近交割，结构继续走强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | 研 究 | | --- | | 所 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | PG2506 | 4,409 | 0.57% | 4,378 | -0.70% | | | PG2507 | 4,310 | 0.47% | 4,281 | -0.67% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2506 | 62,091 | 2518 | 67,190 | -2582 | | | PG2507 | 8,463 | -478 | 25,889 | 1020 | | 价 差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 广州国产气对06合约价差 | 741 | | 796 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 | 821 ...