液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-26 市场氛围尚可，现货价格普涨 市场分析 1、\t8月25日地区价格：山东市场，4500-4630；东北市场，3850-4130；华北市场，4100-4550；华东市场，4350-4480； 沿江市场，4610-4790；西北市场，4450-4500；华南市场，4528-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷581美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷556美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4552元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4356元/吨，跌25元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷573美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷546美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4489元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4277元/吨，跌41元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 经历了较长时间的弱势行情，近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善），LPG市场情绪有所改 善，叠加内盘主力合约切换到2510，盘面有筑底反弹迹象。现货方面，山东、华南、华东等地价格普遍上涨，市 场氛围尚可，下游刚需 ...

Core View - Supply contraction and import cost inversion support prices, but weak demand in the off - season and a weakening international market exert downward pressure. LPG futures will maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and the sustainability of PDH operations [3][4] Fundamental Information Supply - The commodity volume of domestic sample enterprises decreased by 0.53% week - on - week to 524,900 tons, port inventories decreased by 5.17% week - on - week to 3.04 million tons, and the import arrival volume decreased by 6.95% week - on - week, leading to a marginal easing of supply pressure [3] Cost - In the first half of the year, the import arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic imported gas price was consistently lower than the import cost line, providing bottom support for the spot market. In July, the Saudi CP propane price was $575 per ton, and the loose supply - demand situation of crude oil suppressed cost - side expectations [3] Demand - The combustion end is in the off - season with weak terminal consumption. The PDH operating rate has rebounded to 75%, but the demand for MTBE and alkylation is differentiated, and the production - sales ratio is only barely balanced [3]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoint - Although the chemical demand for LPG is expected to be strong, the decline in oil prices and international LPG prices has led to a weakening of the PG market. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Data Changes - From July 1 to July 2, 2025, the price of South China LPG increased by 10 to 4540, Shandong LPG increased by 2 to 4488, and Shandong alkylation oil increased by 30 to 4640. MB propane decreased by 3 to 550, and CP forecast price increased by 5 to 510 [1] - The basis of the main contract strengthened to 433 (+93), and the 08 - 09 month - spread was 50. The warehouse receipt registration volume was 8804 hands (+500), with 500 hands added by Qingdao Yunda [1] Market Conditions - On Monday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4488. FEI and CP declined, CP discount was basically flat, FEI discount dropped significantly, and PP fluctuated strongly. The production profit of FEI and CP to PP improved, and the CP production cost was lower than FEI [1] - The PG futures price rose, the month - spread declined, and the US - to - Far East arbitrage window closed. The AFEI propane dropped significantly, and the CP arrival discount decreased slightly [1] Supply and Demand - The port inventory increased significantly, and the factory inventory increased slightly. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98% due to reduced supply in South China's Maoming refinery, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China [1] - Chemical demand was strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation. The alkylation operating rate increased, and Qifa Chemical's alkylation unit plans to resume production next week. MTBE export orders increased [1]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 21 日 LPG：短期偏弱震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2508 | 4,053 | -0.61% | 4,065 | 0.30% | | 期 货 | PG2509 | 3,990 | 0.13% | 4,026 | 0.90% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2508 | 58,667 | 14309 | 27,381 | -7956 | | | PG2509 | 50,765 | 20777 | 70,020 | 11434 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 广州国产气对08合约价差 | 477 | | 452 | | | | 广州进口气对08合约价差 | 527 | | 502 | | | | | 本 周 | | 上 周 | | | 产业链重要 | PDH开工率 | 71.8% | | 60.9% ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "Oscillating weakly in the short term" for the LPG industry [1] 2. Core View - The LPG market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For PG2508, the yesterday's closing price was 4,111 with a daily decline of 1.89%, and the night - session closing price was 4,106 with a decline of 0.12%. For PG2509, the yesterday's closing price was 4,012 with a daily decline of 1.98%, and the night - session closing price was 4,016 with an increase of 0.10%. The trading volume of PG2508 yesterday was 81,840, an increase of 33,978 from the previous day, and the position was 44,838, an increase of 1,435. The trading volume of PG2509 yesterday was 34,948, an increase of 18,310 from the previous day, and the position was 49,228, an increase of 7,090 [3] - **Spread Data**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 contract was 469 yesterday, compared to 430 the day before. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 08 contract was 499 yesterday, compared to 440 the day before [3] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 60.9%, down from 65.5% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 66.9%, up from 65.1% last week. The alkylation operating rate was 43.8%, down from 44.6% last week [3] 3.2 Market News - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On July 14, 2025, the expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 561 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 531 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton. The expected price of propane in the September Saudi CP was 559 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 529 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton [10] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Many companies have PDH device maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different start and end times [9]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-04 部分装置检修，PDH开工率再度回落 市场分析 1、\t7月3日地区价格：山东市场，4570-4700；东北市场，4120—4310；华北市场，4555-4650；华东市场，4430—4650； 沿江市场，4620—4740 ；西北市场，4250—4350；华南市场，4580—4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷565美元/吨，跌20美元/吨，丁烷530美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4488元/吨，跌119元/吨，丁烷4173元/吨，跌80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷570美元/吨，跌20美元/吨，丁烷530美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4449元/吨，跌197元/吨，丁烷4173元/吨，跌80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，地缘溢价大幅回落，LPG盘面回到窄幅震荡状态，市场驱动不足。昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期与国 内LPG局部现货价格再度下跌。就LPG基本面而言，整体供需格局仍偏宽松，在中东断供风险消退后，海外货源供 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term negative factors for LPG have been realized, and the price is supported [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing price of PG2508 yesterday was 4,257 with a daily decline of 5.65%, and the night - session closing price was 4,195 with a decline of 1.46%. The closing price of PG2509 yesterday was 4,176 with a daily decline of 5.78%, and the night - session closing price was 4,111 with a decline of 1.56% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of PG2508 yesterday was 176,304, an increase of 72,744 from the previous day, and the open interest was 81,468, an increase of 4,772. The trading volume of PG2509 yesterday was 36,951, an increase of 9,149 from the previous day, and the open interest was 26,436, an increase of 615 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 contract was 543 yesterday, compared with 238 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 08 contract was 613 yesterday, compared with 288 the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 66.2%, up from 64.3% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.7%, up from 59.7% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 47.2%, down slightly from 47.5% last week [1]. Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 23, 2025, the July Saudi CP expectation for propane was 602 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 572 dollars/ton, also down 8 dollars/ton. The August Saudi CP expectation for propane was 588 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 558 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with different start and end times [7]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises, such as Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc., have device maintenance plans in different regions, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [9]. Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the LPG market, highlighting increased geopolitical uncertainties and weakening support for the market. It presents various LPG - related data including futures prices, spreads, and industry chain price data, as well as market news such as Saudi CP expectations and domestic device maintenance plans [1]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: PG2507 closed at 4,398 with a daily increase of 1.29% and a night - session close of 4,342 with a decrease of 1.27%. PG2508 closed at 4,319 with a daily increase of 1.60% and a night - session close of 4,258 with a decrease of 1.41% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: PG2507's trading volume was 113,213, a decrease of 61,336 compared to the previous day, and open interest was 41,489, a decrease of 667. PG2508's trading volume was 49,484, a decrease of 30,897, and open interest was 50,284, a decrease of 339 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to the 07 contract was 332 (previous day: 378), and the spread of Guangzhou imported gas to the 07 contract was 402 this week (previous week: 458) [1]. - **Industry Chain Price Data**: PDH operating rate was 64.3% (previous: 63.0%), MTBE operating rate was 59.7% (previous: 54.7%), and alkylation operating rate was 47.5% (previous: 48.3%) [1]. Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. Market News - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 13, 2025, the expected price of propane for July Saudi CP was 592 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton from the previous trading day, and the expected price of butane was 562 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton. For August, the expected price of propane was 579 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton, and the expected price of butane was 549 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting as early as 2023 and some ending at various times in 2025 or with undetermined end - dates [7]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG factories across different regions in China have maintenance plans with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start and end times, and durations [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Date: June 11, 2025 [1] - Report Subject: LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) research 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The cost support for LPG is weakening [1] - The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - PG2507 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,119 with a daily increase of 0.07%, and a night - session closing price of 4,119 with a night - session increase of 0.00%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 75,298 (a change of 21,902 from the previous day), and the position was 52,344 (a decrease of 2,665 from the previous day) [3] - PG2508 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,003 with a daily increase of 0.13%, and a night - session closing price of 4,011 with a night - session increase of 0.20%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 16,805 (a change of 5,882 from the previous day), and the position was 44,584 (an increase of 3,054 from the previous day) [3] - **Spread Data**: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 461 yesterday (compared to 464 the day before) [3] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 561 yesterday (compared to 564 the day before) [3] - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: - The PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) operating rate this week was 63.0%, slightly down from 63.3% last week [3] - The MTBE (Methyl Tert - Butyl Ether) operating rate this week was 54.7%, up from 54.2% last week [3] - The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged at 48.3% this week compared to last week [3] 4.2 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 9, 2025, the expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 578 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 548 dollars/ton, also down 3 dollars/ton. The expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 561 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 531 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton [11] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies including Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., and others have PDH device maintenance plans with different start and end times [9]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Crude Oil Fluctuates Widely, Domestic Support Weakens" and is dated May 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: LPG Futures Data - PG2506 closed at 4,236 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.26%, and at 4,210 in the night session with a decline of -0.61%. PG2507 closed at 4,182 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.63%, and at 4,151 in the night session with a decline of -0.74% [3] - PG2506 had a trading volume of 40,710 yesterday, a decrease of 500 from the previous day, and an open interest of 31,963, a decrease of 7065. PG2507 had a trading volume of 34,136, an increase of 2888, and an open interest of 61,795, an increase of 2354 [3] - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 614 yesterday, compared with 675 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 744 yesterday, compared with 775 the previous day [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Important Price Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 58.0%, down from 59.6% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 56.1%, down from 61.4% last week. The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged at 41.0% [3] Group 4: LPG Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9] Group 5: Market Information - PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance or have scheduled maintenance, including Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times date back to 2023, and many end times are still undetermined [10] Group 6: Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations - On May 20, 2025, the expected Saudi CP for propane in June was 585 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the expected butane price was 565 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton. The expected Saudi CP for propane in July was 559 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the expected butane price was 539 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton [11] Group 7: Market Information - Refinery Maintenance Plans - Many refineries across the country are undergoing or have planned maintenance, including Zhenghua Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times [12]